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Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration (2014)

Chapter: Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
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B

Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data

RESEARCH ORGANIZATION/SPONSOR NAME ABBREVIATIONS

ANES American National Election Studies
AP Associated Press
AP/Ipsos Ipsos Associated Press Polls
CBS CBS News Poll
CBS/NYT CBS News/New York Times Poll
Gallup The Gallup Organization
GSS National Opinion Research Center General Social Survey
HI Harris Interactive
LSAY Longitudinal Study of American Youth
NBC/AP NBC News/Associated Press Poll
NBC/WSJ NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll
NSF Surveys of Public Attitudes National Science Foundation Surveys of Public Attitudes Toward and Understanding of Science and Technology
ORC ORC Macro
Pew Pew Research Center for People and the Press

SURVEY METHODS AND QUESTION WORDING

The survey questions referred to in Chapter 3 are listed in this section by topic and in the order in which they appear in the chapter. Unless otherwise noted, the data cited are available online from one or more of the following sources: the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut, the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research at the University of Michigan, the Odum Institute at the University of North Carolina and the Pew Research Center.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×

Interest and the Attentive Public

1981-2000: NSF Surveys of Public Attitudes
2003-2007: Science News Study
2008: ANES Panel

The NSF Surveys of Public Attitudes were conducted by phone by the Public Opinion Laboratory at Northern Illinois University. The 2003-2007 Science News Studies and 2008 ANES Panel were conducted by Knowledge Networks using online national probability samples. Analysis of the Science News Study data was provided to the panel by the Principal Investigator, Jon Miller.

Interest in Space

There are a lot of issues in the news, and it is hard to keep up with every area. I’m going to read you a short list of issues, and for each one I would like you to tell me if you are very interested, moderately interested, or not at all interested.

[Space exploration]

Being Well Informed about Space

For each issue I’d like you to tell me if you are very well informed, moderately well informed, or poorly informed.

[Space exploration]

Attentiveness to Space

The measure of attentiveness was created based on (1) a high level of interest in space exploration, (2) a sense of being well informed about space exploration, and (3) a minimal regular pattern of national news consumption. A minimal pattern of news consumption was defined as doing any one of the following: reading a newspaper in print or online “a few times a week” or “everyday”; reading a news magazine “regularly, that is most issues”; reading a science magazine “regularly, that is most issues”; reading a health magazine “regularly, that is most issues”; watching network or cable television news three or more days a week; reading news online three or more days a week. The computations in the 1980s did not include the online option for newspapers or online news.

Other Interest Questions

GSS 2012. In-person interview, n=1,974.

There are a lot of issues in the news, and it is hard to keep up with every area. I’m going to read you a short list of issues, and for each one—as I read it—I would like you to tell me if you are very interested, moderately interested, or not.

[Issues about space exploration].

Support for Spending

Pew 10/13. Telephone interview, conducted by Abt SRBI, n=1,504.

Now I would like to ask you about some parts of the government. Is your overall opinion of [The National Aeronautic and Space Administration, NASA] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×

Gallup 8/06. Survey conducted on behalf of the Space Foundation, telephone interview, n=1,000. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Space Foundation.

NASA’S budget request this year is under one percent of the federal budget which would amount to approximately $58 per year for the average citizen. Do you think the nation should continue to fund space exploration at this current level, a slightly increased level, at a significantly increased level, at a slightly decreased level, at a significantly decreased level, or not fund at all?

GSS, annually between 1972-1978, 1980, 1982-1991, 1993; every other year 1994-2012. In-person interview, telephone interview in later years, Sample size varied.

We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each one I’d like you to name some of these problems, and for each one I’d like you to tell me whether you think we’re spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount. First [the space exploration program]…are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on [the space exploration program]?

Pew 1/04. Telephone interview, n=1,503.

I’d like to ask you some questions about priorities for President (George W.) Bush and Congress this year (2004). As I read from a list, tell me if you think the item I read should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done? Should [expanding America’s space program] be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done?

The Apollo Program

Gallup 5/61. In-person interview, n=3,449.

It has been estimated that it would cost the United States 40 billion dollars—or an average of about $225 per person—to send a man to the moon. Would you like to see this amount spent for this purpose, or not?

HI 4/67. Telephone interview, n=1,250.

It could cost the United States $4 billion a year for the next few years to finally put a man on the moon and to explore other planets and outer space. All in all, do you feel the space program is worth spending that amount of money or do you feel it isn’t worth it?

Gallup 2/67. Telephone interview, n=2,344.

In your opinion, do you think it is important or is not important to try to send a man to the moon before Russia does?

CBS/NYT 7/79, CBS/NYT 6/94, CBS 7/97, CBS 8/99, CBS 7/09. Telephone interview, 1979: n=1,192; 1994: n=978; 1997: n=1,042; 1999: n=1,165; 2009: n=944.

(X number of) years ago, the United States spent a great deal of time, effort and money to land men on the moon. Looking back now, do you think that effort was worth it, or not?

International Space Station and Space Shuttle

NSF Surveys of Public Attitudes, 1988, 1992, 1997, 1999. Telephone interview conducted by ORC Macro, 1988: n=2,041; 1992: n=2,001; 1997: n=2,000; 1999: n=1,882.

The American space program should build a space station large enough to house scientific and manufacturing experiments. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree?

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×

CBS/NYT 1/87, CBS/NYT 1/88, CBS/NYT 10/88, CBS 12/93, CBS 8/99, CBS 7/05. Telephone interview, 1987: n=1,590; 1988: n=1,663; 1988 n=1,530; 1993: n=892; 1999: n=1,165; 2005: n=1,222.

Given the costs and risks involved in space exploration, do you think the space shuttle is worth continuing, or not?

NBC/AP 10/81, NBC/AP 11/82, NBC/WSJ 10/85, NBC/WSJ 6/86, Pew 6/11. Telephone interview, 1981: n=1,598; 1982: n=1,583; 1985: n=1,573; 1986: n=1,599; 2011: n=1,502.

Do you think the space shuttle program has been a good investment for this country, or don’t you think so?

(Between 1981-1986 the question read: Do you think the space shuttle program in a good investment…)

Mars

CBS/NYT 6/94, CBS 7/97, CBS 8/99, CBS 1/04, CBS 7/09. Telephone interview, 1994: n=978; 1997: n=1,042; 1999: n=1,165; 2004: n=1,022; 2009 n=944.

Would you favor or oppose the United States sending astronauts to explore Mars?

Gallup 7/69, Gallup 7/99, Gallup/CNN/USA Today 6/05. Telephone interview, 1969: n=1,555; 1999: n=1,061; 2005 n=1,009.

There has been much discussion about attempting to land an astronaut on the planet Mars. How would you feel about such an attempt—would you favor or oppose the United States setting aside money for such a project?

AP/Ipsos 1/04. Telephone interview, n=1,000.

Version 1: As you may have heard, the United States is considering expanding the space program by building a permanent space station on the Moon with a plan to eventually send astronauts to Mars. Considering all the potential costs and benefits, do you favor or oppose expanding the space program this way or do you oppose it?

Version 2: As you may have heard, the Bush administration is considering expanding the space program by building a permanent space station on the Moon with a plan to eventually send astronauts to Mars. Considering all the potential costs and benefits, do you favor expanding the space program this way or do you oppose it?

Science News Study, 2007. Web interview, n=1,407. Analysis of the data was provided to the panel by the principal investigator, Jon Miller.

The United States should begin planning for a manned mission to Mars in the next 25 years. (strongly agree, agree, not sure, disagree, strongly disagree)

NSF Surveys of Public Attitudes, 1988. Telephone interview conducted by ORC Macro, n=2,041.

The American space program should try to land astronauts on Mars within the next 25 years. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree?

Human Versus Robotic Missions

Gallup/CNN/USA Today 2/03. Telephone interview, n=1,000.

Some people feel the U.S. space program should concentrate on unmanned missions like Voyager 2, which send back information from space. Others say the U.S. should concentrate on maintaining a manned space program like the space shuttle. Which comes closer to your view?

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×

AP/Ipsos 1/04. Telephone interview, n=1,000.

Some have suggested that space exploration on the Moon and Mars would be more affordable using robots than sending humans to do the exploration. Would you rather see exploration of the Moon and Mars done by robots or with human astronauts?

In light of the space shuttle accident last February, in which seven astronauts were killed, do you think the United States should or should not continue to send humans into space?

NASA’s Role, International Collaboration, and Commercial Firms

Pew 6/11. Telephone interview, n=1,502.

In your view, is it essential or not essential that the United States continue to be a world leader in space exploration?

Time/Yankelovich 1/88. Telephone interview, n= 957.

How important do you think it is for this country to be the leading nation in space exploration—very important, somewhat important, or not important at all?

AP/Ipsos1/04. Telephone interview, n= 1,000.

How important do you think it is for this country to be the leading nation in space exploration—very important, somewhat important, or not important at all?

CNN/ORC 7/11. Telephone interview, n=1,009.

How important do you think it is for the United States to be ahead of Russia in space exploration—very important, fairly important, or not too important?

Gallup 6/61. In person interview, n=1,625.

How important do you think it is for the United States to be ahead of Russia in space exploration—very important, fairly important, or not too important?

Gallup 3/06. Telephone interview, n=1,001.

A number of Asian and European countries now have space programs of their own or have announced plans for space activities and exploration. As more countries embark on space programs, how concerned are you that the US will lose its leadership in space?

Gallup 4/08. Survey conducted on behalf of the Coalition for Space Exploration, telephone interview, n=1,002. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Coalition for Space Exploration.

Both China and the US have announced plans to send astronauts to the moon. China has announced plans to send astronauts to the moon by 2017 and the US has announced plans to send astronauts to the moon by 2018, a year later. To what extent, if any, are you concerned that China would become the new leader in space exploration or take the lead over the US?

Time/Yankelovich, 1/88. Telephone interview, n= 957.

Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the United States and the Soviet Union to undertake cooperative efforts in space—such as going to Mars?

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×

HI 7/97. Telephone interview, n=1,002.

(Would you favor or oppose the following?)…Joint space missions involving Americans, Russians and people from other countries.

CBS 7/97. Telephone interview, n=1,042.

In general, do you think the US should work with Russia on space missions, or not?

Gallup 4/08. Survey conducted on behalf of the Coalition for Space Exploration, telephone interview, n=1,002. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Coalition for Space Exploration.

As you may know the US space shuttles will retire in 2010. The first launch of the Constellation Program is scheduled for 2015, leaving a five-year gap between 2010, the space shuttle’s last scheduled mission, and the first schedule launch of the Constellation Program. During the five-year period America will need to access the International Space Station through the Russian Space Agency who would ferry crew members to the Station. How concerned are you that the US will not have direct access to the Space Station during these five years?

Yankelovich 12/97. Survey conducted on behalf of the The Boeing Company, telephone interview, n=1,510. Data from Yankelovich report, Public Opinion and the Space Program: Understanding Americans’ Attitudes and Developing a Communications Strategy for Space, Third Year Tracking, submitted to The Boeing Company.

Some people believe that the space program should be funded and manned by private business, while others believe it should be funded and managed by the federal government. Which of these opinions do you agree with more?

CNN/ORC 7/11. Telephone interview, n=1,009.

In general, do you think the US (United States) should rely more on the government or more on private companies to run the country’s manned space missions in the future?

Rationales for Space Exploration

CBS/NYT 6/94. Telephone interview, n=978.

What do you think is the best reason for exploring space? (open ended question)

Gallup 6/04. Survey conducted on behalf of the Space Foundation, telephone interview, n=1,000. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Space Foundation.

What do you think is the main reason why America continues to explore space?: It is human nature to explore, to maintain our status as an international leader in space, to provide benefits on earth, to keep our nation safe, it inspires us and motivates our children, or some other reason?

Pew 6/11. Telephone interview, n=1,502.

Thinking about the space program more generally, how much does the U.S. space program contribute to: Scientific advances that all Americans can use? This country’s national pride and patriotism? Encouraging people’s interest in science and technology?

Gallup 6/04. Survey conducted on behalf of the Space Foundation, telephone interview, n=1,000. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Space Foundation.

How much do you agree or disagree with this statement: The quality of our daily lives has benefited from the knowledge and technology that have come from our nation’s space program.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×

Gallup 5/05. Survey conducted on behalf of the Space Foundation, telephone interview, n=1,001. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Space Foundation.

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements:

America’s space program helps give America the scientific and technological edge it needs to compete with other nations in the international marketplace.

America’s space program benefits the nation’s economy by inspiring students to pursue careers in technical fields.

Gallup 4/08. Survey conducted on behalf of the Coalition for Space Exploration, telephone interview, n=1,000. Data from Gallup Organization report, Public Opinion Regarding America’s Space Program, submitted to the Coalition for Space Exploration.

To what extent do you agree or disagree that the scientific, technical and other benefits of space exploration are worth the risks of human space flight?

To what extent do you believe America’s space program inspires young people to consider an education in science, technology, math, or engineering fields?

Correlates of Support for Space Exploration

LSAY, 1987, 1988, 1989, 2008, 2011. Self-administered questionnaire, 1987: n=4,491, 1988: n=3,708, 1989: n=3,191; 2008: n=2,568; 2011: n=3,154.

There are a lot of issues discussed in the news and it is hard to keep up with every area. For each issue area listed below, please indicate how interested and informed you are about that issue.

[Space exploration]

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
Page 182
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
Page 183
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
Page 184
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
Page 185
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
Page 186
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Methodological Notes About the Public Opinion Data." National Research Council. 2014. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18801.
×
Page 187
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The United States has publicly funded its human spaceflight program on a continuous basis for more than a half-century, through three wars and a half-dozen recessions, from the early Mercury and Gemini suborbital and Earth orbital missions, to the lunar landings, and thence to the first reusable winged crewed spaceplane that the United States operated for three decades. Today the United States is the major partner in a massive orbital facility - the International Space Station - that is becoming the focal point for the first tentative steps in commercial cargo and crewed orbital space flights. And yet, the long-term future of human spaceflight beyond this project is unclear. Pronouncements by multiple presidents of bold new ventures by Americans to the Moon, to Mars, and to an asteroid in its native orbit, have not been matched by the same commitment that accompanied President Kennedy's now fabled 1961 speech-namely, the substantial increase in NASA funding needed to make it happen. Are we still committed to advancing human spaceflight? What should a long-term goal be, and what does the United States need to do to achieve it?

Pathways to Exploration explores the case for advancing this endeavor, drawing on the history of rationales for human spaceflight, examining the attitudes of stakeholders and the public, and carefully assessing the technical and fiscal realities. This report recommends maintaining the long-term focus on Mars as the horizon goal for human space exploration. With this goal in mind, the report considers funding levels necessary to maintain a robust tempo of execution, current research and exploration projects and the time/resources needed to continue them, and international cooperation that could contribute to the achievement of spaceflight to Mars. According to Pathways to Exploration, a successful U.S. program would require sustained national commitment and a budget that increases by more than the rate of inflation.

In reviving a U.S. human exploration program capable of answering the enduring questions about humanity's destiny beyond our tiny blue planet, the nation will need to grapple with the attitudinal and fiscal realities of the nation today while staying true to a small but crucial set of fundamental principles for the conduct of exploration of the endless frontier. The recommendations of Pathways to Exploration provide a clear map toward a human spaceflight program that inspires students and citizens by furthering human exploration and discovery, while taking into account the long-term commitment necessary to achieve this goal.

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