Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component (2015)

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32 S E C T I O N 6 The calculator (available at www.TRB.org/main/blurbs/172110.aspx) works through the fol- lowing four steps: • 6.1 Step 1: Select Your Baseline Region. • 6.2 Step 2: Select Your Analysis Type. • 6.3 Step 3: Enter Data on Your Project. • 6.4 Step 4: View Information on the Benefits of Transit. The following sections provide instructions on completing each of these steps. 6.1 Step 1: Select Your Baseline Region The tool calculates the benefits of a transit project based on the land use and transportation characteristics of the greater region in which your project is located. The region should cor- respond to your transit service area in terms of population density, transit service density and frequency, and daily per capita VMT. It is more important that these values are reasonably rep- resentative of your transit service area than that the boundary of the region is a close fit to your service area boundary. There are multiple ways to define a baseline region using the calculator. 6.1.1 Selecting an Urbanized Area on the Introduction Sheet The easiest way to select a baseline region is to choose from the list of federal-aid urbanized areas (areas that the federal government uses when allocating transportation funding) on the Intro sheet of the calculator, using the table shown in Figure 5. Default inputs for these areas are provided for the year 2010. (Data points can be updated by defining a custom region.) Select a state from the state drop-down menu, and then the urbanized area drop-down menu will return a list of all the urbanized areas located within that state. Urbanized areas that span multiple states are listed under each state included in the urbanized area. For example, portions of the New York–Newark urbanized area, shown in Figure 5, are in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Accordingly that urbanized area is provided as an option under all three states. If you have questions about these areas or do not see your region listed, click on the purple button below the table to navigate to the Learn More sheet. 6.1.2 Exploring Urbanized Area Transportation and Land Use Characteristics on the Learn More Sheet The Learn More sheet provides users with more information about the urbanized areas used in the calculator and allows users to define a custom region rather than using an urbanized area. The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 33 Use the drop-down menus in the Urbanized Area Characteristics table shown in Figure 6 to select a state and urbanized area, and the table will return information on the transit and road network, land use characteristics, and travel characteristics in that urbanized area. You can use the Urbanized Area Characteristics table to determine whether characteristics, especially density, transit service, and VMT of the urbanized area are a reasonable match for the characteristics of your transit service area. Note that this table is for informational purposes; users will still need to select a baseline urbanized area using the menu on the Intro page. Once you view information about the urbanized areas associated with your transit service area, make a selection in the section titled How do you want to define your baseline region? Where is your project located? State NJ Urbanized area New York-Newark Custom region selected? No Click to learn more about the urbanized areas in the list above or to define a custom region Figure 5. Urbanized area selection table on the calculator Intro sheet.12 How do you want to define your baseline region? Urbanized area characteriscs - Year 2010 State NY Federal aid urbanized area New York-Newark Transit network Total transit direconal route miles 20,220 Heavy rail 545 Light rail 114 Commuter rail 2,186 Non-rail 17,375 Total annual transit revenue miles 350,972,240 Road network Total roadway lane miles 27,032 Freeways 7,225 Other roads 19,807 Land use Gross populaon density (people / sq. mi.) 4,176 Total populaon 18,536,839 Total land area (sq. mi.) 4,439 Travel characteriscs Transit passenger miles, per capita per day 2.96 Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), per capita per day 15.8 Click here to return to the introducon page and select an urbanized area Select a federal-aid urbanized area Define a custom region Figure 6. Urbanized area characteristics table. 12 Screenshots in this section are provided in color to show the actual look of the tables in the calculator; however, if the user is printing the document, it is not necessary to do so in color for the screenshots to be understandable.

34 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component by clicking on one of the two radio buttons and then clicking the purple button below the menu: • If you choose Select a federal-aid urbanized area, clicking this button will return you to the introduction page so that you can select an urbanized area to use as a baseline region from the drop-down menu. • If you choose Define a custom region, clicking this button will bring up a worksheet where you will enter inputs about your custom baseline region. 6.1.3 Defining a Custom Region Defining a custom area is labor-intensive and requires extensive land use and transportation data. Reasons to define a custom area are • If the urbanized area most closely associated with your transit service area is not included in the calculator. • If the urbanized area that best aligns with your transit service area is significantly smaller than your transit service area. If your transit service area covers multiple urbanized areas, consider creating a custom region to include all relevant urbanized areas. • If the urbanized area that best aligns with your transit service area is significantly larger than your transit service area. For megaregions such as New York and Los Angeles, a single urbanized area can encompass areas with dramatically different transportation and land use characteristics. In these cases, users may want to consider defining a custom area for the subregion of the urbanized area served by their agency. You should not create a custom region to cover a single corridor or other subarea within your larger transit service area. Instead, you can use the corridor or station area modules to examine the benefit of specific projects within your transit service area. Figure 7 shows the custom baseline region characteristics table. This table prompts you to enter several different types of data about your baseline region, including • Information on the transit network, which can be collected directly from transit agencies or from the National Transit Database. Custom baseline region characteriscs Transit network Total transit direconal route miles 5,280 Heavy rail 20 Light rail 37 Commuter rail 147 Non-rail 5,076 Total annual transit revenue miles 66,794,274 Road network Total roadway lane miles 6,824 Freeways 1,856 Other roads 4,968 Land use Gross populaon density (people / sq. mi.) 2,825 Total populaon 3,062,000 Total land area (sq. mi.) 1,084 Travel characteriscs Transit passenger miles, per capita per day 1.06 Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), per capita per day 23.1 Figure 7. Custom baseline region characteristics table.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 35 What type of analysis do you want to conduct? Regional Project A regional project serves a large part of a transit agency service area, including multiple corridors. Corridor Project A corridor project serves a single corridor. The corridor area consists of the area within one mile of the transit route, which may be composed of one or more transit lines. Staon Area Project A station area project serves a single station or stop. The staon area consists of the area within one mile of the transit station or stop. Benefits of Current System You can use the tool to examine the current benefits of transit service in your urbanized area. Figure 8. Analysis selection menu. • Information on land use and population, which can come from the census or local planning agencies. • Information on the road network, which can come from local or regional transportation agencies. • Information on travel behavior, which can come from regional planning agencies or the National Transit Database. Once you have completed filling in the table, click the button at the top of the page to return to the Intro page and select an analysis type. 6.2 Step 2: Select Your Analysis Type After selecting an urbanized area or defining a custom region, select from one of four analysis types using the menu shown in Figure 8 and clicking on the corresponding purple button. The first three options (regional project, corridor project, and station area project) estimate the benefits of transit projects of varying scales, while the fourth option estimates the benefits of the current transit system in your region: • A region consists of a transit agency service area. Regional projects include systemwide investments in increasing transit frequency or expanding routes across a large area. Com- mon regional projects include regional transportation plans and long-range transit plans. • A corridor consists of the area within 1 mile on either side of a route served by one or more transit lines. Corridor-level projects increase transit frequency or add service along a portion or the entirety of a route. Common corridor projects include corridor management plans or upgrades from local service to BRT. Since corridors consist of multiple station or stop areas, you can also use the station area module to analyze the benefits of increasing speed or upgrad- ing transit service along a corridor in more depth by completing the station area module for each station located along the corridor. • A station or stop area consists of the area within 1 mile of a transit station or stop. Station area projects create new rail stations or bus stops or improve existing transit service to provide access to a greater number of destinations from the station or stop area. • You can use the calculator to examine the benefits of the current transit system in your urbanized area. Figure 9 illustrates the difference between the three scales of analysis.

36 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component The calculator is capable of analyzing different types of transit improvements at different scales. Figure 10 summarizes the different types of projects that the calculator is capable of cap- turing at each scale of analysis. The calculator uses different inputs to characterize transit improvements at different scales. It captures improvements that can be quantified in terms of new service (i.e., new route miles or increased accessibility to destinations), increased frequency (i.e., new revenue miles or increased Figure 9. Map illustrating the different scales of analysis used in the calculator. Road Improvements Building roads Building new transit Increasing transit service frequency Increasing transit speed Upgrading bus to rail / BRT Regional Project Corridor Project* see note below (via increase in revenue miles) Station Area Project (via accessibility) (via accessibility) (via accessibility) *Note: since corridor projects are composed of multiple station area projects, you can also use the station area module to analyze the benefits of increasing speed or upgrading service along a corridor by compleng the station area module for each station located along the corridor. Transit Improvements Figure 10. Summary table of project types captured at different scales.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 37 accessibility to destinations), increased speed (i.e., accessibility to destinations), or upgrades from conventional bus service to rail and BRT. Where BRT service is comparable to rail service— providing high-frequency service every 15 minutes or more frequently during peak periods and a dedicated right-of-way along the entire transit line—a BRT station can be considered equivalent to a rail station in the calculator. Other types of bus service, including “BRT light,” can be ana- lyzed in other ways. For example: • If you are estimating the benefits of increasing the frequency of service on an existing bus line, use the corridor-scale analysis. • If you are estimating the benefits of adding some BRT features to increase speed and/or fre- quency of a bus line, use station area-scale analysis, and enter the resulting increase in acces- sibility to jobs. • If you are estimating the benefits of upgrading from conventional bus service to full BRT, use the station area-scale analysis, and enter both that the station area will be served by a new rail stop and the resulting increase in accessibility to jobs. • If you are estimating the benefits of upgrading from conventional bus service to rail service, use the station area-scale analysis and enter both that the station area will be served by a new rail stop and the resulting increase in accessibility to jobs. Note that improvements that cannot be quantified in terms of new service or improved fre- quency or employment accessibility cannot be analyzed using the calculator. For example, the calculator does not analyze effects of enhancements such as real-time arrival information or special branding and outreach campaigns for individual transit routes. For further examples of how transit agencies have used the calculator to estimate the benefits of different project types, see the case studies in Sections 6.5 and 6.6. Once you have selected an analysis type, click on the corresponding purple button in the menu shown in Figure 8, and the calculator will navigate to the appropriate sheet for you to begin inputting data on your project. 6.3 Step 3: Enter Data on Your Project Once you select an analysis type, you will navigate to a new sheet where you will enter data on your planned transportation project. The calculator uses different inputs to characterize transit projects at different scales. Inputs are based on variables that have a statistically significant effect on compact development and transit ridership, as indicated from the research described in Sec- tion 4. The following sections describe the key data inputs for each type of analysis included in the calculator. 6.3.1 Regional Analysis The regional analysis captures the benefits of projects that increase the coverage or frequency of transit across a large area. Figure 11 shows the input table for analyses of regional projects. New transit facilies Planned Current Transit direconal route miles 100 5,607 Annual transit revenue miles 10,000 77,939,014 Road projects Planned Current Planned new freeway lane miles (oponal) 987 1,931 Planned new other lane miles (oponal) 1,035 3,921 Planned regional transportaon projects Figure 11. Input table for planned regional transportation projects.

38 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component The table shows information on the current transit and road facilities for reference, in order to give users a sense of the scale of new planned projects. The key inputs for regional projects are transit route miles and revenue miles. Users must input both in order for the calculator to accurately estimate benefits. Users also have the option of entering data on planned road projects if analyzing a multimodal plan such as a regional transportation plan. New road construction encourages driving, diminishing the benefits of new transit. 6.3.2 Corridor Analysis The corridor analysis captures the benefits of transit projects that increase transit frequency or add service in any part of a corridor area defined by the user. The corridor area should be defined as the area within 1 mile of the primary travel route of interest. Figure 12 shows an example diagram of a corridor. Figure 13 shows the input table for analyses of corridor projects. The key inputs for corridor projects are transit route miles and revenue miles. Users must input both in order for the calculator to accurately estimate benefits. Users must also enter the length of the corridor and the population living in the area surrounding the corridor. The length is the length of the corridor in question, not the total length of the transit routes serving the corridor. Population estimates will ideally be for the number of people living within 1 mile on either side of the corridor. 6.3.3 Station or Stop Area The station or stop area analysis captures the benefits of improved transit service for the area within 1 mile of a transit station or stop. Figure 14 shows an example diagram of a station area. Though users can apply this calculator to anything from a rail station to a local bus stop, land use changes are most likely to occur near fixed-route rail or BRT stops or stops with high frequency (i.e., every 15 minutes during peak periods). Figure 15 shows the input tables for analyses of station or stop area projects. Figure 12. Diagram illustrating area used in the corridor analysis. Corridor characteriscs Length of corridor (mi) 5 Popula on living in corridor area 1,000 New transit service in the corridor area Direc onal route miles of new transit in the corridor area 10 New / increased annual transit revenue miles in the corridor area 100 Planned corridor transit projects Figure 13. Input table for planned corridor transit projects. Figure 14. Diagram illustrating area used in station or stop area analysis.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 39 The key inputs for station area projects are whether the project includes a new rail/BRT sta- tion and the increase in the number of jobs accessible by transit. Users must input at least one of these in order for the calculator to estimate benefits. Users must also enter the number of jobs and people in the station area. Users should be aware of the following: • You should only enter yes in response to Are you constructing a new rail/BRT station? if the station area does not contain any other rail/BRT stations. • If you are evaluating a new BRT station, only enter yes in response to Are you constructing a new rail/BRT station? if the BRT line offers full BRT service that is comparable with a rail line, that is, high-frequency service every 15 minutes or more frequently during peak periods and a dedicated right-of-way along the entire transit line. • The increase in job accessibility measures the percentage increase in the number of jobs avail- able within a 30-minute transit ride. For example, if 100,000 jobs are currently accessible within 30 minutes by transit from the area, and improvements in transit service or land use changes will increase that number to 110,000, users would enter 10% in this cell. Accessibil- ity is a key determinant of whether transit is a viable travel option. Ideally, the regional travel demand model would be used to estimate increases in job accessibility. In the absence of modeled values: – As a general rule of thumb, a 100% increase in transit frequency is associated with a 20% increase in accessibility, based on a statistical analysis of the relationship between accessibil- ity and transit frequency using nationwide data from the EPA Smart Location Database.13 – One agency pilot testing the calculator assumed that a 25% increase in transit speed would produce a 25% increase in job accessibility. This is a reasonable placeholder assumption if no modeled estimates are available, but should be considered in the context of the location of job centers accessible via transit. • Planning agencies often consider the broader neighborhood surrounding a transit station to be the station area; the statistical analysis underlying this calculator focuses on the area within a 1-mile radius of a station or stop, so the resulting estimates will be most accurate if you enter the number of jobs and people living within that area. Users also have the option of defining the land use mix in the station area using the baseline station or stop area characteristics table. People drive less in mixed-use areas, so the calculator adjusts baseline VMT downward if people enter a mix of uses. Staon area characteriscs Staon area populaon 5,000 Number of jobs in staon area 2,000 Transit improvements Are you construcng a new rail/BRT staon? no % increase in job accessibility via transit 20% Baseline staon or stop area characteriscs Land use characteriscs % of land area zoned for residenal (oponal) 47% % of land area zoned for office / retail (oponal) 10% % of land area zoned as public / instuonal (oponal) 20% Planned staon area transit projects Figure 15. Input tables for station or stop area analysis. 13 http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/smartlocationdatabase.htm

40 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component 6.3.4 Benefits of Current Transit Service This analysis describes the benefits of the current transit system for a region based on the baseline urbanized area or custom baseline region defined by the user. No additional inputs are necessary. 6.4 Step 4: View Information on the Benefits of Transit Once you enter data on your project, the calculator will display estimates for the environ- mental benefits of the project in green cells on the same sheet in which you entered data. The calculator focuses on three different environmental benefits of transit: • Reduced VMT. • Reduced gasoline usage. • Reduced GHG emissions. All benefits are calculated against a baseline determined using the baseline urbanized area or user-defined region. The calculator displays benefits in two ways, using two separate columns in the table of benefits: • Per capita per day. • Total per year. Per capita values capture changes in typical travel behavior, while total annual benefits allow comparisons between projects at different scales. Since transit has the biggest effect on areas immediately surrounding stations, smaller-scale projects, such as station area and corridor proj- ects, will tend to produce greater per capita benefits. But since these areas are smaller, fewer people are affected, resulting in smaller total annual benefits. The calculator quantifies benefits due to two different effects of transit on vehicle travel: • Ridership effects, whereby travelers shift from driving to riding transit. Although the calculator estimates the reduction in VMT due to ridership effects, a reduction that is roughly proportional to the increase in transit passenger miles due to improved transit service, the ridership benefits estimated by the calculator are not meant as a substitute for more precise ridership forecasts that transportation agencies routinely produce to analyze new projects. • Land use effects, whereby transit stations anchor development that is more compact, mixed- use, or walkable, all of which reduce VMT. The land use effect of transit is realized when new development occurs, but the development process can be long and complex. If new develop- ment takes decades to happen around new transit investments, the land use benefits of transit will likewise take decades to be realized. The benefits shown by the calculator vary slightly according to the analysis type selected. The following subsections summarize and contain additional notes on the benefits shown for each analysis type. 6.4.1 Regional Analysis Figure 16 shows the table of benefits for analyses of regional transportation projects. The numbers shown in the table are placeholders provided to illustrate the structure of the calcula- tor’s outputs, rather than actual analysis results.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 41 6.4.2 Corridor Analysis Figure 17 shows the table of benefits for analyses of corridor transportation projects. The numbers shown in the table are placeholders provided to illustrate the structure of the calcula- tor’s outputs, rather than actual analysis results. In addition to the benefits discussed above, the calculator also estimates the percentage change in population density and transit ridership along the corridor. The change in population density does not account for projected growth or other planned land use changes in the station area but represents an estimate of the effect that new transit will have on density, all other factors being equal. As discussed above, ridership estimates are not meant to be a substitute for in-depth rider- ship forecasts that transportation agencies routinely use to analyze new projects. 6.4.3 Station Area Analysis Figure 18 shows the table of benefits for analyses of station area transportation projects. The numbers shown in the table are placeholders provided to illustrate the structure of the calcula- tor’s outputs, rather than actual analysis results. Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional population % reducon in VMT in the region 0.5% 0.5% reduction in VMT in the region 0.079 535,428,331 reduction in gallons of gasoline used in the region 0.003 21,484,389 reduction in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) in the region 0.062 422,678,172 Ridership benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional population % reducon in VMT in the region 0.3% 0.3% reduction in VMT in the region 0.047 321,256,999 reduction in gallons of gasoline used in the region 0.002 12,890,633 reduction in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) in the region 0.037 253,606,903 Benefits of planned regional transportaon projects Figure 16. Table of benefits for analyses of regional projects. Land use effect Corridor area % change in populaon density in corridor area 0.1% Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total corridor populaon % reducon in VMT of corridor area residents 10.0% 10.0% reducon in VMT of corridor area residents 2.024 738,919 reducon in gallons of gasoline used by corridor area residents 0.081 29,650 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) by corridor area residents 1.598 583,318 Ridership benefits Per capita per day Annual for total corridor populaon % change in transit passenger miles by corridor area residents 0.3% 0.3% % reducon in VMT of corridor area residents 10.0% 10.0% reducon in VMT of corridor area residents 2.024 738,919 reducon in gallons of gasoline used by corridor area residents 0.081 29,650 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) by corridor area residents 1.598 583,318 Benefits of planned corridor transit projects Figure 17. Table of benefits for analyses of corridor projects.

42 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component The calculator only estimates benefits due to the land use effect, not those due to the ridership effect. This is because the calculator does not collect sufficient information to estimate baseline ridership at the station area level. In addition to the benefits discussed above, the calculator also estimates the percentage change in population density and the overall increase in jobs and population in the station area. These estimates do not account for projected growth or other planned land use changes in the station area, but represent an estimate of the effect that new transit will have on density and growth, all other factors being equal. 6.4.4 Benefits of Current Transit Service Figure 19 shows the table of benefits for analyses of current transit service. The numbers shown in the table are placeholders provided to illustrate the structure of the calculator’s out- puts, rather than actual analysis results. The benefits of current transit service are calculated against a hypothetical scenario where the region does not have any transit service. In addition to the benefits discussed above, the calcula- tor compares current VMT, population density, and land consumption for current conditions with transit service to this hypothetical no-transit scenario. Land use effect Staon area % change in acvity density in staon or stop area 10.9% esmated increase in area jobs and populaon 763 Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total staon area populaon % reducon in VMT 2.4% 2.4% reducon in VMT 0.495 902,503 reducon in gallons of gasoline used 0.020 36,213 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) 0.390 712,454 Benefits of planned sta on area transit projects Figure 18. Table of benefits for analyses of station area projects. Current condions Without transit Daily per capita VMT 20.2 27.7 Gross popula on density (people / sq. mi.) 4,629 2,088 Land area needed to house current popula on (sq. mi.) 720 1,597 Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional populaon % reduc on in VMT 18.1% 18.1% reduc on in VMT 5.021 6,111,756,776 reduc on in gallons of gasoline used 0.201 245,237,973 reduc on in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) 3.964 4,824,746,900 Ridership benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional populaon % reduc on in VMT 8.9% 8.9% reduc on in VMT 2.459 2,993,787,952 reduc on in gallons of gasoline used 0.099 120,127,570 reduc on in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) 1.942 2,363,357,979 Difference between current condions and a hypothecal scenario without transit Benefits of current transit service Figure 19. Table of benefits for analyses of current transit service.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 43 6.5 Case Study: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) used the calculator to estimate land use effects for an ongoing study, “Alternatives Development for Roosevelt Boulevard Transit Enhancements.” The goal of the study is to develop and screen a range of financially feasible alter- natives for improved transit along Roosevelt Boulevard that would better meet the needs of neigh- borhood residents and longer-distance commuters from areas surrounding Philadelphia. DVRPC is in the process of developing a near-term “Better Bus” (or “BRT light”) alternative, which will add frequent bus service along partially exclusive rights-of-way with wide station spacing and sup- portive treatments such as transit signal priority, before eventually developing an exclusive right- of-way BRT. The 15-mile corridor under consideration runs along the wide right-of-way from near Center City Philadelphia in the southwest to Bucks County, Pennsylvania, in the northeast. The proposed route would serve neighborhood residents and longer-distance commuters from surrounding areas. The Roosevelt Boulevard right-of-way ranges from 12 to 14 lanes at major intersections, and the corridor has a significant number of established bus routes and riders. Outputs from the Land Use Benefit Calculator were used, along with a series of other performance measures, to compare alternative candidate stop locations and develop a recommended set of stops for the Better Bus alternative. DVRPC used the station area module of the calculator to examine 18 potential station locations, which include four possible route termini. Additionally, DVRPC used the corridor module to analyze the corridor encompassing all of the potential stations. Figure 20 shows the 15-mile corridor under consideration and the land use patterns within 1 mile of each stop. To reduce travel time on the new route, DVRPC examined 15 potential stop locations in order to propose 10 stops. Pairs of neighboring stations were compared to select one of the pair to eliminate. The pairs were compared on a number of performance indicators, including the increase in area jobs and population estimated by the calculator. Figure 21 shows the stops under consideration on the left and stops proposed by the study team on the right. Source: DVRPC, “Alternatives Development for Roosevelt Boulevard Transit Enhancements.” Figure 20. Land use within 1 mile of proposed bus stops, Roosevelt Boulevard development.

44 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component Source: DVRPC Figure 21. Proposed bus stops in Roosevelt Boulevard project.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 45 6.5.1 Baseline Region DVRPC selected the Philadelphia urbanized area for its baseline region. As seen in Figure 20, the bus corridor under consideration covers a diverse range of land use types, representative of the larger region. Figure 22 shows the baseline transportation network and travel characteristics for the Philadelphia urbanized area, based on 2010 data. The area has approximately 4,000 direc- tional route miles of non-rail transit; this represents over 80% of the 4,768 total transit miles in the region. The population density was roughly 2,400 people per square mile, and daily VMT per capita was 23.5. 6.5.2 Benefits of the Current Transit System Figure 23 shows the benefits from the current transit system in the greater Philadelphia area. The calculator estimates that without transit, average VMT per capita would be approximately Custom baseline region characteriscs Transit network Total transit direconal route miles 4,768 Heavy rail 106 Light rail 82 Commuter rail 591 Non-rail 3,989 Total annual transit revenue miles 61,161,949 Road network Total roadway lane miles 11,244 Freeways 2,413 Other roads 8,831 Land use Gross populaon density (people / sq. mi.) 2,421 Total populaon 5,451,310 Total land area (sq. mi.) 2,252 Travel characteriscs Transit passenger miles, per capita per day 0.97 Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), per capita per day 23.5 Figure 22. Baseline data for Philadelphia urbanized area. Current condions Without transit Daily per capita VMT 23.5 28.3 Gross populaon density (people / sq. mi.) 2,420 1,421 Land area needed to house current populaon (sq. mi.) 2,252 3,837 Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional populaon % reducon in VMT 11.9% 11.9% reducon in VMT 3.366 6,696,997,323 reducon in gallons of gasoline used 0.135 268,721,107 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) 2.657 5,286,747,863 Difference between current condions and a hypothecal scenario without transit Benefits of current transit service Figure 23. Benefits of the current transit system in the Philadelphia area.

46 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component 5 miles higher than the current average of 23.5 miles per day per person. The land use benefits from current transit are estimated to have cut over 3 miles per capita per day. This translates into a total reduction of roughly 270 million gallons of gasoline and 5.3 billion pounds of CO2e emissions per year from land use benefits of current transit. 6.5.3 Corridor Analysis of Land Use Benefits DVRPC analyzed the total benefits of the Roosevelt Boulevard corridor using the corridor module of the calculator in addition to analyzing each bus stop individually (see Section 6.5.4). Figure 24 summarizes the corridor-level benefits from the proposed Better Bus project along Roosevelt Boulevard. These benefits are calculated based on new transit service frequency of 78 vehicles per day along the corridor. The calculator estimates a 10.5% increase in population density in the corridor and a 2.5% reduction in VMT due to land use effects. Assuming the corridor area has the same population density as the Philadelphia region (approximately 2,400 residents per square mile), the VMT reduction in the area translates into a reduction of 620,000 gallons of gasoline and over 12 million pounds of CO2e emissions per year by the corridor area residents. 6.5.4 Station Area Analysis of Land Use Benefits DVRPC used the station area module of the calculator to analyze the 18 potential bus stop locations under consideration in the project. With no new rail stations proposed, job accessibil- ity was the primary input and driver of station area results. While DVRPC plans to model job accessibility along the proposed Better Bus corridor using its regional travel demand model, no model runs had been conducted at the time of this analysis. As a result, DVRPC made assumptions about changes in job accessibility based on preliminary estimates of travel time savings along the corridor: • A 5% increase in job accessibility was assumed for areas that already had rapid transit (rail) connections to greater Center City, based on enhanced access to other employment locations in the BRT corridor. • If no other rapid transit is currently available, a 25% increase in job accessibility was assumed because of the 25% decrease in transit travel times for people to get to Center City and Uni- versity City, the primary job hubs relevant to the project. Corridor characteriscs Length of corridor (mi) 15 Populaon living in corridor area 72,608 New transit service in the corridor area Direconal route miles of new transit in the corridor area 30 New / increased annual transit revenue miles in the corridor area 854,100 Land use effect Corridor area % change in populaon density in corridor area 10.5% Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total corridor populaon % reducon in VMT of corridor area residents 2.5% 2.5% reducon in VMT of corridor area residents 0.586 15,538,659 reducon in gallons of gasoline used by corridor area residents 0.024 623,498 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) by corridor area residents 0.463 12,266,538 Planned corridor transit projects Benefits of planned corridor transit projects Figure 24. Benefits of Better Bus Roosevelt Boulevard corridor.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 47 Figure 25. Benefits of Cottman Avenue transit stop. Benefits of planned staon area transit projects Land use change Staon area % change in acvity density in staon or stop area 13.6% esmated increase in area jobs and populaon 9,223 Land use benefits Per capita per day Total per year % reducon in VMT 3.1% 3.1% reducon in VMT 0.716 15,006,115 reducon in gallons of gasoline used 0.029 602,130 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) 0.565 11,846,137 Figure 25 shows the estimated benefits of including a Better Bus stop at one of the pro- posed stop locations, Cottman Avenue. The station area analysis estimates an increase of over 9,000 residents and workers—a 13.6% increase over the baseline—within 1 mile of the stop over the long term. This increased density reduces VMT by 3.1%, or over 15 million vehicle miles traveled per year for the 57,000 residents in the stop area. The resulting environmental benefits are over 600,000 gallons of gasoline saved and nearly 12 million pounds of CO2e reduced per year. 6.6 Case Study: Utah Transit Authority— Frontlines 2015 Rail Plan The Utah Transit Authority (UTA) used the calculator to estimate the land use effects of its Frontlines 2015 rail plan for the greater Salt Lake City Area. Frontlines 2015 added 50 directional miles of light rail in four extension projects to the 39 miles that were already operational in 2010. All projects in the Frontlines 2015 plan were completed between 2011 and 2013. UTA used the calculator to estimate the long-term land use benefits that are expected from the expansion. Figure 26 shows light-rail improvements included in Frontlines 2015. 6.6.1 Baseline Region UTA used the Salt Lake City, Utah, urbanized area as its baseline region. Because UTA’s transit service area covers multiple urbanized areas (including Provo), UTA is a candidate for defining a custom region in the calculator (see information on defining custom regions in Section 6.1.3). Because UTA only analyzed new transit projects that fall within the Salt Lake City urbanized area, it was reasonable to use the default region as the baseline. Therefore, UTA declined to enter data to define a custom region. Figure 27 shows the baseline data for the Salt Lake City urbanized area. In addition to the 39 directional miles of light rail, in 2010 the Salt Lake City region had 88 directional miles of com- muter rail and more than 2,000 directional miles of bus routes for a total of nearly 2,300 direc- tional route miles of transit. Population density in the region was approximately 3,000 people per square mile and daily per capita VMT was approximately 21. 6.6.2 Benefits of the Current Transit System Figure 28 shows the benefits of the current transit system in Salt Lake City. Daily VMT per capita would be 26 if the region had no transit. The land use benefits of transit alone reduce VMT by 4 per capita per day and gallons of gasoline consumed by 0.2 per capita per day. Total annual land use benefits of transit are savings of 59 million gallons of gasoline and 1.1 billion pounds of CO2e emissions reduced.

48 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component Source: Utah Transit Authority Figure 26. UTA’s Frontlines 2015 rail plan.

The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 49 Custom baseline region characteriscs Transit network Total transit direconal route miles 2,259 Heavy rail - Light rail 39 Commuter rail 88 Non-rail 2,132 Total annual transit revenue miles 18,418,771 Road network Total roadway lane miles 2,359 Freeways 561 Other roads 1,798 Land use Gross populaon density (people / sq. mi.) 3,003 Total populaon 1,021,020 Total land area (sq. mi.) 340 Travel characteriscs Transit passenger miles, per capita per day 0.45 Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), per capita per day 21.3 Figure 27. Baseline data for Salt Lake City urbanized area. Current condions Without transit Daily per capita VMT 21.3 25.9 Gross populaon density (people / sq. mi.) 2,999 1,597 Land area needed to house current populaon (sq. mi.) 340 639 Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional populaon % reducon in VMT 15.1% 15.1% reducon in VMT 3.898 1,452,598,643 reducon in gallons of gasoline used 0.156 58,286,408 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) 3.077 1,146,711,339 Difference between current condions and a hypothecal scenario without transit Benefits of current transit service Figure 28. Benefits of the current transit system in Salt Lake City. 6.6.3 Regional Analysis of Land Use Benefits Figure 29 shows the benefits of the Frontlines Rail Plan. The 50 new directional miles of light rail and 1.7 million new annual transit revenue miles in the Frontlines 2015 plan will reduce VMT per capita by 0.4% in the long term, resulting in savings of 1.3 million gallons of gasoline per year and 26 million pounds of CO2e emissions reduced. 6.6.4 Corridor Analysis of Land Use Benefits UTA also separately analyzed a single corridor in the Frontlines 2015 rail plan, the Mid-Jordan corridor. This 10.6-mile corridor serves the southwestern suburbs of Salt Lake City. Figure 30 shows the benefits of the new line to the surrounding area. The Mid-Jordan corridor is expected to increase in population density by 5% over the long term due to the new rail line and reduce VMT of area resi- dents by 1.2%. Assuming the corridor area has average regional population density currently (about 3,000 residents per square mile), residents of the area will save 240,000 gallons of gasoline per year and will see a reduction of 4.7 million pounds of CO2e emissions per year due to land use benefits.

50 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component Figure 30. Benefits of Mid-Jordan corridor. Corridor characteriscs Length of corridor (mi) 11 Popula on living in corridor area 63,600 New transit service in the corridor area Direc onal route miles of new transit in the corridor area 21 New / increased annual transit revenue miles in the corridor area 588,088 Land use effect Corridor area % change in popula on density in corridor area 5.1% Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total corridor populaon % reduc on in VMT of corridor area residents 1.2% 1.2% reduc on in VMT of corridor area residents 0.257 5,974,606 reducon in gallons of gasoline used by corridor area residents 0.010 239,735 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) by corridor area residents 0.203 4,716,477 Planned corridor transit projects Benefits of planned corridor transit projects New transit facilies Planned Current Transit direconal route miles 50 2,259 Annual transit revenue miles 1,701,024 18,418,771 Road projects Planned Current Planned new freeway lane miles (oponal) 0 561 Planned new other lane miles (oponal) 0 1,798 Land use benefits Per capita per day Annual for total regional populaon % reducon in VMT in the region 0.4% 0.4% reducon in VMT in the region 0.087 32,518,355 reducon in gallons of gasoline used in the region 0.004 1,304,819 reducon in GHG emissions (lbs. CO2e) in the region 0.069 25,670,661 Benefits of planned regional transportaon projects Planned regional transportaon projects Figure 29. Benefits of Frontlines 2015 rail plan.