Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies (2014)

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N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP REPORT 750 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Booz Allen HAmilton McLean, VA Subscriber Categories Administration and Management • Environment • Planning and Forecasting TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2014 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective approach to the solution of many problems facing highway administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of Transportation. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was requested by the Association to administer the research program because of the Board’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those who are in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. The needs for highway research are many, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other highway research programs. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America NCHRP REPORT 750, VOLUME 4 Project 20-83(7) ISSN 0077-5614 ISBN 978-0-309-28389-2 Library of Congress Control Number 2013932452 © 2014 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. Front cover images from the top: © G. Blakeley/iStockphoto; © 2014 California Depart- ment of Transportation; © Isaac L. Koval/iStockphoto; © 2009 Kimberly Fisher; © San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 750, VOLUME 4 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Christopher Hedges, Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Lori L. Sundstrom, Senior Program Officer Megan A. Chamberlain, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Senior Editor NCHRP PROJECT 20-83(7) PANEL Area of Special Projects Gary McVoy, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Washington, DC (Chair) Gail Achterman, Oregon Transportation Commission (deceased) Don T. Arkle, Alabama DOT, Montgomery, AL Joseph A. Burns, USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC David J. Carlson, Parsons Transportation Group, Washington, DC Robert Edstrom, Minnesota DOT, St. Paul, MN Felicia L. Haywood, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore, MD Wayne W. Kober, Wayne W. Kober Transportation & Environmental Management Consulting, Dillsburg, PA F. Yates Oppermann, Oppermann Environmental, Lakewood, CO Jolanda P. Prozzi, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Austin, TX Fred Skaer, FHWA (retired), Vienna, VA Brian J. Smith, Washington State DOT (retired), Shelton, WA Lynn Weiskopf, New York State DOT, Albany, NY Michael Culp, FHWA Liaison Martine A. Micozzi, TRB Liaison

This report provides state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other transporta- tion agencies with an analytical framework and implementation approaches to assist them in evaluating their current and future capacity to support a sustainable society by deliver- ing transportation solutions in a rapidly changing social, economic, and environmental context in the next 30 to 50 years. This report will be useful to senior transportation agency officials and policymakers who are positioning their agencies for continued relevancy in an uncertain future. Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State High- way and Transportation Officials established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for departments of transportation (DOTs) to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends. NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transporta- tion, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies is the fourth report in this series. Increasing awareness of the environmental, economic, and social effects of the trans- portation system has already led to new demands on transportation agencies to be more responsive in providing transportation services. Transportation agencies are challenged to build consensus around balancing short-term cost effectiveness and long-term sustainabil- ity. While the roles and responsibilities of transportation agencies differ from state to state, there are common organizational attributes and characteristics that transportation agencies need in order for their transportation systems to support the environment, the economy, and social equity. Under NCHRP Project 20-83(7), Booz Allen Hamilton was asked to develop an analytical framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services while also meeting society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis. The research (1) identified likely alternative future scenarios in which transportation agencies could be asked to achieve sustainability goals of the triple bottom line of economic vitality, social equity, and environmental integrity under conditions 30 to 50 years in the future; (2) analyzed how transportation agencies’ existing fiscal, legal, and institutional structure(s) and decision- making processes encourage or inhibit them from optimizing their contribution to a sus- tainable society; (3) examined the variety of roles, and the nature of their related primary activities, that transportation agencies may be expected to play in the future; (4) explored F O R E W O R D By Lori L. Sundstrom Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

linkages, and expectancies, between transportation agencies and stakeholders, and the need to form new alliances and partnerships with other transportation providers and system users; and (5) provided tools that individual agencies can use in designing their particular approach(es) to adapt to the demands and opportunities of the future and in describing, in broad terms, how “sustainable” transportation agencies might be organized. Against a backdrop of changing societal expectancies related to transportation, the tradi- tional functions of many transportation agencies are changing. As they evolve, transporta- tion agencies will have to be resilient in the face of continuing and new demands by society, and they may need to fundamentally rethink the mission(s) and organizing principle(s) that drive them today.

ix Acronyms and Initialisms 1 Summary 23 Chapter 1 Introduction 23 1.1 Objective 24 1.2 Scope and Limitations of the Current Research 26 1.3 Defining “Sustainability” 28 1.4 Achieving “Strong” vs. “Weak” Societal Sustainability 29 1.5 Roadmap for the Research and Report 30 Chapter 2 Policy Systems and Transportation Functions 30 2.1 The Systems Analysis Model 36 2.2 Policy Change 40 2.3 Moving from Past and Current Policy System Models to a TBL Sustainability System Model 60 2.4 Current Position of Transportation Agencies and Gap Analysis 66 Chapter 3 Scenario Development Methodology 66 3.1 Background 69 3.2 Scenario Development Methodology 73 Chapter 4 Description of Scenarios 74 4.1 Crisis World 77 4.2 Mega World 78 4.3 Suburban World 80 4.4 Wonder World 81 4.5 Green World 83 Chapter 5 Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agencies 86 5.1 Crisis World 88 5.2 Mega World and Suburban World 89 5.3 Wonder World 92 5.4 Green World 93 Chapter 6 Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios 93 6.1 Key Principles in Preparing for TBL Sustainability under All Scenarios 96 6.2 Agency Roles and Relationships under the Scenarios 99 6.3 Functional Implications under Each Scenario 105 Chapter 7 Near-Term Tools and Strategies to Consider 106 7.1 General Strategies 108 7.2 Development of Consensus on Future Vision, Goals, Objectives, and Needs 109 7.3 Planning and Programming 114 7.4 Budgeting and Resource Allocation C O N T E N T S

116 7.5 Rulemaking and Regulation 118 7.6 Service and Project Delivery 121 7.7 Education and Cultural Development 122 7.8 Outreach and Communications 124 7.9 Summary 125 Chapter 8 Sustainability Tools and Methods: Key Directions for Development 125 8.1 Sustainability Rating Systems and Performance Measurement Systems 133 8.2 Return on Investment and Communicating Benefits of Sustainability 141 8.3 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Life-Cycle Assessment, and Cost–Benefit Analysis 148 Chapter 9 Addressing TBL Sustainability—Now and in the Not-Too-Distant Future 148 9.1 Improvement in Sensor Technology and Omnipresent Data Collection 150 9.2 Improved Computing Power, Advanced Analytics, and Intelligent Analysis and Modeling 152 9.3 Rapid Advancement in Networking Capabilities and Information Dissemination Leading to Improved Understanding of Relationships between Transportation and the Economy, Society, and the Environment 154 References 159 Appendix A Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 186 Appendix B Federal, State, and Local Transportation Spending 189 Appendix C NEMS Energy Consumption Forecasts 192 Appendix D Research and Data Collection 238 Appendix E Subject Matter Experts Interviewed 240 Appendix F TBL Maturity Assessment Tool 248 Bibliography

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACEC-Illinois American Council of Engineering Companies–Illinois AFV Alternative Fuel Vehicle AI Artificial Intelligence AIChE American Institute of Chemical Engineers APWA American Public Works Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASTRA Assessment of Transportation Strategies BBB Balanced-Base Budgeting Caltrans California Department of Transportation CART Conservation and Alternative Resource Team CBA Cost–Benefit Analysis CCA Cross-Consistency Assessment CEQ Council on Environmental Quality CMAP Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent COG Council of Government COTS Commercial off-the-Shelf CREATE Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency Program CSS Context Sensitive Solutions CST Centre for Sustainable Transportation CTA Chicago Transit Authority CTP California Transportation Plan DEQ Department of Environmental Quality DGC Durable Goods Calculator DLCD Department of Land Conservation and Development DoD Department of Defense DOE Department of Energy DOT Department of Transportation DSD Division for Sustainable Development EEA European Environment Agency EFCA Environmental Full Cost Accounting EJ Environmental Justice EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPI Environmental Performance Indicator ESCOT Economic Assessment of Sustainability Policies of Transport EU European Union FCA Full Cost Accounting FEMP Federal Energy Management Program FHWA Federal Highway Administration A C R O N Y M S A N D I N I T I A L I S M S

GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information System GMA Growth Management Act GreenLITES Green Leadership in Transportation Environmental Sustainability GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project HBN Healthy Building Network HDM Highway Design Manual HEAT Highway Economic Assessment Tool HOV High-Occupancy Vehicle HUD Housing and Urban Development I-LAST Illinois–Livable and Sustainable Transportation IMPLAN Impact Model for Planning INDOT Indiana Department of Transportation INVEST Infrastructure Voluntary Evaluation Sustainability Tool IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRTBA Illinois Road and Transportation Builders Association ISI Institute for Sustainable Infrastructure ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act ITRC Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council ITS Intelligent Transportation System LCA Life-Cycle Assessment LCC Life-Cycle Costing LCCA Life-Cycle Cost Analysis LCEA Life-Cycle Cost Environmental Accounting LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design LOS Level of Service LRTP Long-Range Transportation Plan MA Morphological Analysis MAM Macroeconomic Activity Module (part of NEMS) MDOT Minnesota Department of Transportation MDSHA Maryland DOT Metro Portland’s Metropolitan Planning Organization MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization MTA Metropolitan Transit Authority MTC Bay Area Metropolitan Transit Commission MTR Mountain Top Removal NASCAR National Association of Stock Car Auto Racing NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NEMS National Energy Modeling System NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NHS National Health Service NIMS Not-in-My-System NRDC Natural Resources Defense Council NRTEE National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (Canada) NYSDOT New York State Department of Transportation NZ$ New Zealand Dollar NZME New Zealand Major Events O&M Operations and Maintenance

ODOE Oregon Department of Energy ODOT Oregon Department of Transportation OECD Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development OMB Office of Management and Budget OPB Oregon Progress Board OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ORTEE Ontario Round Table on Environment and Economy OSTI Oregon Sustainable Transportation Initiative P3 Performance Programming Process PlaNYC New York City’s multidimensional, interagency plan PRISM™ Parsons Brinckerhoff Regional Impact Scenario Model READ-Database Directory Database of Research and Development Activities REMI Regional Economic Models, Inc. ROI Return on Investment RPA Regional Plan Association RPO Regional Planning Organization SB Senate Bill SFMTA San Francisco Metropolitan Transportation Authority SIA Sustainability Impact Assessments SLCA Sustainability Life-Cycle Accounting SMARTe Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools–electronic SMCRA Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 SME Subject Matter Expert SMF Smart Mobility Framework SOV Single-Occupancy Vehicle SROI Sustainability Return on Investment STARS Sustainable Transportation Access Rating System STPI Sustainable Transportation Performance Indicators TAC Transportation Association of Canada TBB Target-Based Budgeting TBL Triple Bottom Line TCA Total Cost Accounting TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century TERM Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism TIGER Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery TOD Transit-Oriented Development TRB Transportation Research Board TTPO Tribal Transportation Planning Organization TxDOT Texas Department of Transportation USDOT U.S. Department of Transportation VMT Vehicle Mile Traveled VTPI Victoria Transport Policy Institute WARM Waste Reduction Model WCED World Commission on Environment and Development WSDOT Washington State Department of Transportation ZBB Zero-Based Budgeting