National Academies Press: OpenBook

Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook (2013)

Chapter: Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool

« Previous: Appendix A - Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS)
Page 39
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 39
Page 40
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 40
Page 41
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 41
Page 42
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 42
Page 43
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 43
Page 44
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 44
Page 45
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 45
Page 46
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 46
Page 47
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 47
Page 48
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 48
Page 49
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 49
Page 50
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 50
Page 51
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 51
Page 52
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 52
Page 53
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 53
Page 54
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 54
Page 55
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 55
Page 56
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 56
Page 57
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 57
Page 58
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 58
Page 59
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 59
Page 60
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 60
Page 61
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 61
Page 62
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 62
Page 63
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 63
Page 64
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 64
Page 65
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 65
Page 66
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 66
Page 67
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 67
Page 68
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 68
Page 69
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B - Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22619.
×
Page 69

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

39 The following are step-by-step instructions showing the user how to perform the different analyses available in the Rural Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet. Each of the analyses is performed along with discussion of how to collect the necessary data and where to enter the information. In addition, at the end of each analysis is a manual computation of the desired result using the TCRP Project B36 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Workbook. This acts as a check on the spreadsheet values produced and shows how the values can be computed manually. The spreadsheet for apply- ing the procedures described below can be found on the TRB website by searching for TCRP Report 161. 1. Open the TCRP B36 Need Demand Spreadsheet. 2. The Instructions tab provides basic instructions on how to use the spreadsheet (Figure 1). The Print Reports button can be used to print copies of the other tabs, showing the analyses performed, the inputs, and the results. The Clear Forms button can be used to clear all the information from the form. NOTE: IN ORDER TO USE ALL THE BUTTONS ON THE INSTRUCTIONS TAB OF THIS SPREADSHEET, MACROS NEED TO BE ENABLED WITHIN MICROSOFT EXCEL. INSTRUCTIONS FOR ENABLING MACROS ARE PROVIDED IN STEP 4, BELOW. 3. Future references to the Analysis Setup tab (1)1, the Input tab (2), and the Output tab (3) refer to the tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet that allow the user to toggle among the different worksheets (Figure 1). 4. The following are instructions for enabling macros in the spreadsheet. The Macros Instruc- tions tab (4) also contains these instructions (Figure 1)2. a. The TCRP B36 Spreadsheet contains a few simple macros that make the spreadsheet more user-friendly. Some macros can contain computer viruses, so Microsoft Office has a func- tion that will disable ALL macros if the security level is set too high. Although this safety feature can protect users, it also can cause problems by disabling useful features in spread- sheets. The macros contained in the TCRP B36 Spreadsheet are SAFE. These instructions explain how to remove the security warnings and use the spreadsheet normally. Note: the calculations in the spreadsheet will still function correctly without use of the macros. b. This version of the TCRP B36 Spreadsheet contains a security certification created by LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc., that will allow users to operate the macros in the spreadsheet with the macro security setting on High. Because the locally created security A P P E N D I X B Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 1 The numbers in parentheses (1) refer to the arrows on the referenced figure. These numbers are associated with key features of the figure. 2Additionally, page 186 in TCRP Report 147: Toolkit for Estimating Demand for Rural Intercity Bus Services provides instructions for allowing macros to function in Excel for versions not covered here.

40 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation certificate was not issued by a licensed certificate dealer, authorized by Microsoft, the user must complete the following steps to accept LSC’s certificate. NOTE: These procedures are not necessary if macro security is set to Low. If macro security is set to Medium, the user can simply check the box to Enable Macros. c. When the spreadsheet is loaded, a Security Warning dialog box will appear. Click on the box to Always trust macros from this source. Click Enable macros. d. If the Always trust macros from this source checkbox cannot be selected, complete the fol- lowing procedure: Click Details or Digital Signature Details. Click View Certificate, and then click Install Certificate. This will open the Certificate Import Wizard. Click Next twice, and then click Finish. Now, another security warning will appear, again notifying the user that the LSC certificate has not been validated by Microsoft. Click Yes at the bottom of this dialog box. After this step, click OK on all the open dialog boxes. The Always trust macros (or content) from this source checkbox should now be available. If not, save and close the spreadsheet, and then re-open the spreadsheet. When the spreadsheet opens, the same Security Warning dialog box will appear. Click the button for Always trust content from this source. Click Enable Macros. e. The spreadsheet should now function with all of the features working properly. This pro- cess should only have to be completed the first time the spreadsheet is used on a new computer. The spreadsheet will open normally for future uses. Figure 1. Instructions Tab of the TCRP B36 Spreadsheet.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 41 Office 2007 users must take these additional steps: Macros will likely be automatically disabled on opening the spreadsheet. 1. (Figure 2) Click the Office icon (1) in the upper-left corner of the display. Click Excel Options (2). 2. (Figure 3) Check the box for Show Developer Tab in Ribbon (3). 3. (Figure 4) Click the Developer tab (4). Click on Macro security (5). Check the appropri- ate security option for the user’s firm or agency. Click Disable all macros except digitally signed macros (6). 4. When the Security Warning dialog box appears (Figure 5), click Options (7). Click Details or Digital Signature Details (8). 5. (Figure 6) Click View Certificate (9). 6. (Figure 7) Click Install Certificate (10). 7. This will open the Certificate Import Wizard (Figure 8). Click Next (11) twice, and then click Finish. A message should appear saying the import was successful. Click OK. 8. Click OK on all of the open dialog boxes. When you return to the Security Alert – Macro dialog box (Figure 9), check the box that says Trust all documents from this publisher (12). Then click OK. This should enable the macros from this point forward anytime the file is opened on the same computer. Figure 2. Excel 2007 Main Menu.

42 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 3. Excel 2007 Options Menu. Figure 4. Excel 2007 Developer Tab.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 43 Figure 6. Excel 2007 Digital Signature Details Menu. Figure 5. Excel 2007 Macros Security Dialog Box.

44 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 8. Excel 2007 Certificate Import Wizard. Figure 7. Excel 2007 Certificate Menu.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 45 5. The Analysis Setup tab allows the user to choose the appropriate analysis or analyses they would like to perform (Figure 10). Seven different analyses can be performed using the work- book: a. Need – Number of Persons b. Need – Number of Trips c. Demand – Program d. Demand – Non-Program e. General Public Rural Passenger Transportation f. Demand – Small City Fixed-Route g. Demand – Commuters by Transit to an Urban Center 6. Selecting the Demand – Program box (1) will require further input to begin the analysis. A drop-down box to the right needs to have the number of programs offered in the study juris- diction selected (2). This will activate the appropriate number of rows in the Input tab. Data for up to 25 programs can be entered. Need Two measures are used to quantify the need for passenger transportation services: • Number of persons having a need • Number of trips that are not being served Need – Number of Persons (refer to Figures 11 and 12) 1. Select the Need – Number of Persons box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to esti- mate the number of individuals likely to require public transportation. 2. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 11). Figure 9. Excel 2007 Security Warning – Trust Publisher.

46 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 10. Analysis Setup Tab. Figure 11. Need - Number of Persons (Input Tab).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 47 3. Access the ACS4 via the website link (1). Tables B08201 – Household Size by Vehicles Available and B17001 – Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months by Sex by Age are used to collect the data for this analysis (Tables 1 & 2). Table 1 shows figures for poverty status based on age classifica- tion. The figure required for the spreadsheet is the total number of individuals who fall below the poverty line (in the example, 5,897). Enter this figure into the appropriate cell (2). Table 2 shows the number of households based on vehicle ownership. The figures required for the spreadsheet are as follows: 789, 274, 112, and 18. Enter these figures into the corresponding cells (3) shown in Figure 11. 4. Click the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the output sheet with the calculated result displayed 7,600 (4) based on the inputs entered (Figure 12). Figure 12. Need - Number of Persons (Output Tab). 4 Instructions for using the American Community Survey to access U.S. Census data can be found on Page 8 or in Appendix 1 of the Workbook. Once a user has arrived at the “Enter Table Number” link on the ACS website, he or she can enter the appropriate table number associated with the desired data (this can be found on the “Input” tab) and follow the remainder of the steps in the Workbook for selecting the appropriate geography and arriving at the results table.

48 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Table 1. ACS Table B17001 – Bedford County, VA.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 49 The following is the manual computation of the number of persons in need of public transporta- tion for Bedford County using the TCRP Project B36 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantify- ing Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Workbook as a check to the spreadsheet values produced. PERSONS HAVING TRANSPORATION NEED Number of= Persons Below the Poverty Level Number o+ f Persons with No Vehicle Available NEED = 5,897 1 789 2 274 3 112 4 18 5 897 + × + × + × + × = [( ) ( ) ( ) ( )] , + + + + = + = ≈ [ ] , , , , 789 548 336 72 5 897 1 745 7 642 7NEED 600 Need – Number Of Trips (refer to Figures 13 and 14) 1. Select the Need – Number of Trips box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to estimate the number of trips those individuals requiring transportation would make if there were minimal limitations on their ability to travel. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey Table 2. ACS Table B08201 – Bedford County, VA.

50 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation 2. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 13). 3. Access the ACS via the website link (1). Table B08201 – Household Size by Vehicles Avail- able is used to collect the data for this analysis (Table 3). Table 3 shows the number of households based on vehicle ownership. The figures required for the spreadsheet are as follows: 789, 274, 112, and 18. Enter these figures into the corresponding cells (2) shown in Figure 13. 4. Click on the Mobility Gap drop-down menu (3) and select the appropriate state. This will select the corresponding value that can be found in Table 4. 5. Click the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the output sheet with the calculated result (4) based on the inputs entered (Figure 14). The daily value computed was 2,074 one-way trips. This results in 622,100 annual one-way passenger-trips. The following is the manual computation of the number of trips those individuals in need of public transportation for Bedford County would require, using the TCRP Project B36 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Workbook to check the spreadsheet values produced. NEED trips Number of Households with No V( )= ehicle Available Mobility Gap× = + +(789 274 112+ × = × = 18 1 3 1 193 1 3 1 550 9 1 ) . , . ( ) , . ( ,NEED trips 551)Daily Trips Annual trip need is based on a multiplier of 300 days per year because the trip rates for Satur- days, Sundays and Holidays are typically lower than for weekdays. Figure 13. Need - Number of Trips (Input Tab).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 51 ANNUAL TRIP NEED = × ≈1 551 300 465 300, , Note: to determine UNMET NEED, it is necessary to know how many trips are being served by existing passenger transportation services. The number of trips being served can be deter- mined from surveys or interviews with agencies or transportation service providers in the area of interest. Unmet Need Estimated need trips trips cur= ( )– rently being served Demand – Program (refer to Figures 15 through 17) 1. Select the Demand – Program box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to estimate the demand for program trips. 2. After checking the Demand box (1), a new box will appear to the side asking the user to select the number of programs for which a demand estimate will be calculated. Be sure to select the appropriate number of programs (2). 3. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 16). Figure 14. Need - Number of Trips (Output Tab).

52 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation 4. Enter the appropriate information related to each program (3). This should include informa- tion about the number of participants, events per week, percent of attendees on an average day, percent likely to use transit, and number of weeks the program meets in a year. This should be information readily available from each program. 5. Click the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the output sheet with the calculated results for each individual program (4) based on the inputs entered (Figure 17). There will also be a total demand calculated based on the sum of all the programs (5). The following is the manual computation of the number of trips required to meet the demand for participants in the three fictitious programs used above. Number of ogram Participants EvenPr Program× ts per Week the oportion of ogram Part × Pr Pr icipants who attend the ogram on an AverPr age Day the oportion of ogram Participa × Pr Pr nts that are Transit Dependent or Likely to Use the Transit Service provided funded b / y the Agency the Number of Weeks per Year× the ogram is Offered trips per partici Pr × 2 ( pant per event) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey Table 3. ACS Table B08201 – Bedford County, VA.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 53 ESTIMATED PROGRAMTRIPS meals( ) . .= × × ×50 3 85 90 50 2 11 500× × ≈ , (ESTIMATED PROGRAMTRIPS work) . . ,= × × × × × ≈15 5 1 00 1 00 52 2 7 800 ESTIMATED PROGRAMTRIPS home TOTAL ( ) . .= × × × × × ≈6 1 50 1 00 45 2 300 ANNUAL ESTIMATED PROGRAMTRIP DEMAND ≈11 5, 00 7 800 300 19 600+ + ≈, , Demand – Non-program (REFER TO FIGURES 18 AND 19) 1. Select the Demand – Non-Program box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to estimate the demand for non-program trips. 2. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 18). 3. Enter the respective number of Households with No Vehicle Available by household size (1), Persons Age 60 and Over (2), and Persons 18–64 with a Mobility Limitation (3). All this infor- mation can be gathered from the ACS website. The recommended table numbers for each field are located to the right of that field. Persons Age 60 and Over use figures from ACS Table B01001 (Table 5). The population Age 60 and Over can be calculated by adding the respective age categories together for both male and female. This value is 14,697. The value for Persons who have a Mobility Limitation Age 18 to 64 can be pulled from figures in the ACS Table S1810 (Table 6). This figure is 1,537 for Bedford County, VA. Lastly, the figure for Persons Living in a Household with No Vehicle Available can be derived from data pulled from ACS Table B08201 (Table 7). This table provides a number of households by vehicle ownership by household Division States Trips per Rural Household Per Day Vehicles Available Gap 0 1 Na�onal 3.2 4.7 1.5 Division 1: New England Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachuse�s, Connec�cut, Rhode Island 3.3 5.0 1.7 Division 2: Middle Atlan�c New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania 3.5 4.8 1.3 Division 3: East North Central Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois 2.7 4.1 1.4 Division 4: West North Central North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota 2.4 4.5 2.1 Division 5: South Atlan�c Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida 3.2 4.5 1.3 Division 6: East South Central Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi 2.7 4.1 1.4 Division 7: West South Central Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana 2.9 4.9 2.0 Division 8: Mountain Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico 5.2 6.0 0.8 Division 9: Pacific Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii 3.8 4.9 1.1 Table 4. Mobility Gap.

54 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation size. A factoring of the households must be done to produce a figure of persons with no access to a vehicle (4). This is the same procedure used to produce an estimate of persons in need of passenger transportation. The resulting figure used in the spreadsheet is 1,745. 4. Click the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the output sheet with the demand estimate (Figure 19). The demand estimate will be reported as annual 1-way trips (5). The following is the manual computation of the number of trips required to meet the general demand for public transportation in Bedford, using the TCRP Project B36 Methods for Forecast- ing Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Workbook to check the spreadsheet values produced. NON PROGRAM DEMAND trips per year P- ( ) ( .= ×2 20 opulation Age Mobility Limited 60 5 21 + × × ) ( . Population age sidents of H 18 64 1 52 – ) ( .+ × Re ousehold having No Vehicle NON PROGRAM DEM ) - AND trips per year( ) ( . , ) ( .= × + ×2 20 14 697 5 21 1, ) ( . , ) , . , . , 537 1 52 1 745 32 333 4 8 007 77 2 652+ × = + + . ,4 43 000≈ Figure 15. Demand - Program (Analysis Setup).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 55 Demand – General Public Rural Passenger Transportation (refer to Figures 20 and 21) 1. Select the Demand – General Public Rural Passenger Transportation box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to estimate the demand for rural passenger transportation based on need and supply of existing service. 2. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 20). 3. Access the ACS via the website link (1). Table B08201 – Household Size by Vehicles Available is used to collect the data for this analysis (Table 8). Table 8 shows the number of households based on vehicle ownership. The figures required for the spreadsheet are as follows: 49, 16, 0, and 0. Enter these figures into the corresponding cells (2) shown in Figure 20. Select the appropriate state in the drop-down for Mobility Gap (3). Then enter the annual vehicle-miles of service provided by ALL services that provide service to the general public. 4. Click the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the output sheet with the results of the analysis (Figure 21). The table will show the number of trips needed (4) based on the mobility gap method. It will also show the demand for general public rural passenger transportation (5). Demand – Small City5 (refer to Figures 22 and 23) Figure 16. Demand - Program (Input Tab). 5 For this analysis, Cortland, NY, was used because data were available about the transit system; its population is below the 50,000 threshold; a university is located in the city; and the transit system provided fewer than 20,000 annual vehicle hours of service.

56 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 17. Demand - Program (Output Tab).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 57 Figure 18. Demand - Non-Program (Input Tab). Table 5. ACS Table B01001 – Bedford County, VA.

58 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation 1. Select the Demand – Small City Fixed Rural box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to estimate the demand for program trips. 2. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 22). 3. Enter values for a. Population of City – 19,257 (1), b. University enrollment – 7,358 (2), c. Annual revenue-hours or service – 19,857 (3). – City population can be accessed using the ACS website. – University enrollment can be gathered directly from the college or university in question or found at the College Board website: http://www.collegeboard.org. – Revenue-hours of service can be gathered directly from the agency(s) in question or by going to the National Transit Database website: www.ntdprogram.gov. NOTE: This analysis is designed for cities with a population under 50,000 with a transit system that operates fewer than 20,000 vehicle-hours of service annually. Table 6. ACS Table S1810 – Bedford County, VA.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 59 4. Click the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the output sheet with the result (4) (Figure 23). The resulting one-way passenger trip demand is 187,600. The following is the manual computation of ridership associated with operating fixed- route service in Cortland, using the TCRP Project B36 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Workbook to check the spreadsheet values produced. ANNUALRIDERSHIP Total Population= × +1 07 7 12. . × + × University Enrollment Annual Revenue5 77. -Hours = × + × + × =1 07 19 257 7 12 7 358 5 77 19 857. , . , . , 20 604 99 52 388 96 114 574 89 , . , . , .+ + ANNUALRIDERSHIP ≈187 600, Demand – Commuters to Urban Centers (Refer to Figures 24 through 31) 1. Select the Demand – Commuters to Urban Centers box on the Analysis tab. This will allow the user to estimate the demand for commuter passenger transportation from a rural area to a neighboring urban center. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey Table 7. ACS Table B08201 – Bedford County, VA.

60 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation 2. Click the Input tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet. This will bring up the input sheet with the required inputs needed for this analysis in white (Figure 24). 3. Enter the number of workers commuting between the rural area to the urban center (1) and the distance between a rural county and urban center (2) and check the box if the urban center is a state capital (3). 4. The information about workers commuting can be found at http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. a. From the front page of the Census’ LED page, select OnTheMap (4) (Figure 25). b. The OnTheMap program will appear (Figure 26). Enter the county/city you wish to per- form the analysis on in the search field (5). Click Search. Note: The drop-down menu allows for the narrowing of the search field. c. Select the correct study area from the search (6). The area will become highlighted on the map. Select Perform Analysis on Selection Area (7) (Figure 27). d. Once the correct location has been selected, the Analysis Settings window will appear (Fig- ure 28). Select Home (8) for the Home/Work Area. Select Destination (9) for the Analysis Type, and ensure that Places is selected in the drop-down menu. Select the most current year (10). Then select Primary Jobs (11) for the Job Type. Figure 19. Demand - Non-Program (Output).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 61 e. The OnTheMap results map (Figure 29) will appear showing where workers are commut- ing. The result can be pulled from the bottom right of the screen (12). This area shows the number of commuters commuting to locations in order of largest destination. 5. If the distance the proposed commuter service will travel is known, use this distance. If not, an approximate distance (13) can be pulled from a mapping program (e.g., Google Maps) (Figure 30). 6. Clicking the Output tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet will bring up the results from the analysis (14) (Figure 31). According to the spreadsheet, there is a demand of 150 commuter trips daily and 38,800 annually. The following is the computation of ridership associated with commuters traveling to a major urban center, using the TCRP Project B36 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Workbook to check the spreadsheet values produced. The method requires two formulas. The first formula produces a proportion of commuters likely to use transit figure, which is then used to produce a number of commuter trips by transit in the second. PROPORTION USING TRANSIT FOR COMMUTER TRIPS FROM RURAL COUNTY TO URBAN PLACE = +0 024 0. ( .0000056×Wor s Commuting from Rural Countyker toUrban Place Dis ce in Miles ) –( .0 00029× tan from Rural County to Urban Place i) . (+0 015 f the Urban Place is a state capital) .= 0 024 0 0000056 2 433 0 00029 22 0 0312448+ × × =( . , )–( . ) . ≈ 3% COMMUTER TRIPS BY TRANSIT FROM COUNTY TO COUNTY PER DAY oportion u g transit f = Pr sin or Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place Number of Commuters× × = ×2 0 0312448 2. , .433 2 152 0371968 150× = ≈ ANNUAL COMMUTER TRIPS = ∗ = ≈152 0371968 255 38 769 38 800. , , Figure 20. Demand – General Public Rural Passenger Transportation (Input Tab).

62 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 21. Demand - General Public Rural Passenger Transportation (Output).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 63 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey Table 8. ACS Table B08201 – Archuleta County, CO.

64 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 22. Demand - Small City (Input Tab).

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 65 Figure 23. Demand - Small City (Output).

66 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 24. Demand – Commuters (Input Tab). Figure 25. U.S. Census LEHD Main Page.

Step-By-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 67 Figure 26. LEHD OnTheMap Program Search Page. Figure 27. OnTheMap Select Study Area.

68 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 28. OnTheMap Analysis Settings. Figure 29. OnTheMap Results Page.

Figure 30. Determining Commuter Distance. Figure 31. Demand – Commuters (Output Tab).

Next: Appendix C - Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection »
Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook Get This Book
×
 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook presents step-by-step procedures for quantifying the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided.

The report is supplemented by two products: an Excel spreadsheet that can be used to implement the procedures included in the workbook; and a methodology report, TCRP Web-Only Document 58, which documents how the research team developed the need and demand estimation methods, the findings of the analyses, and recommendations for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand.

The Excel spreadsheet is available for download only from TRB’s website.

Excel Spreadsheet Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

READ FREE ONLINE

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!