Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment (2013)

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80 Appendices S e c t i o n 9

Appendix A 81 Thursday, March 11, 2010 – MIT MediaLab Extension Building, Room E14-633 8:30 Registration & Continental Breakfast 9:00 Welcome and Introduction Dr. Chris Caplice, MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics 9:15 A Nation of Floridas: Aging, Changing Lifestyles & the New Future of Freight Dr. Joseph Coughlin, MIT AgeLab 10:00 Break 10:30 After the Storm: New Challenges for the Global Economy in 2010-2030 Sara Johnson, IHS Global Insight 11:15 Public Policy and Freight: History, Trends, and Issues Dr. David Luberoff, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government 12:00 Lunch 1:00 Transporting Bits and Atoms Professor Neil Gershenfeld, MIT Center for Bits and Atoms 1:45 The New Age of Sensing Professor Sanjay Sarma, MIT Mechanical Engineering 2:30 Break 3:00 Wired for Innovation: How IT is Reshaping the Economy Professor Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan School of Management 3:45 Measuring and Managing Sustainability Professor Jonathan Johnson, The Sustainability Consortium 4:30 Wrap Up Dr. Chris Caplice 5:00 Adjourn 5:30 Social and Light Hors d’Oeuvres Friday, March 12, 2010 – MIT Engineering Systems Division Building, Room E40-298 8:30 Continental Breakfast 9:00 Synthesis of Thursday’s Expert Sessions Dr. Chris Caplice 9:30 Brainstorming Session: Key Driving Forces & Uncertainties All attendees and MIT facilitators 10:30 Break 10:45 Translation and Mapping to Freight Flows All attendees and MIT facilitators 11:30 Wrap Up and Preview of Next Steps Dr. Chris Caplice 12:00 Lunch

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Appendix e 129 time from DVRPC MNDOT WSDOT POLB GDOT USDOT 7:45 8:00 8:15 8:30 Welcome Welcome Welcome 8:45 9:00 9:15 9:30 FAB Welcome Segments 9:45 -break- -break- -break- 10:00 -break- 10:15 Segments 10:30 -break- Segments 10:45 -break- 11:00 11:15 11:30 11:45 12:00 12:15 12:30 12:45 13:00 13:15 13:30 13:45 14:00 14:15 14:30 14:45 15:00 15:15 15:30 15:45 16:00 Wrap-up 16:15 Wrap up 16:30 16:45 Wrap up Registration Segments Intro to ScenPlan Interactive workshop Lunch Reveal, Team debrief Discussion Registration Intro to ScenPlan Interactive workshop Lunch Wrap up Reveal, Team debrief Cross- scenario comparisonCross- scenario comparison Technical tour of POLB Registration Intro to ScenPlan Interactive workshop Lunch Reveal, Team debrief Cross- scenario comparison Registration Intro to ScenPlan Interactive workshop Lunch Reveal, Team debrief Lunch Reveal, Team debrief, Discussion Wrap up Registration Intro to ScenPlan Interactive workshop Registration Welcome Intro to ScenPlan Segments Interactive workshop Lunch; Workshop summary

130 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment PHASE / TASKS TIME Before starng the workshop • DVRPC will have 2-3 note-takers per room. • Meet with the note-takers and introduce yourself. • Tell the note-takers the rules of the game: o You (the facilitator) will do all the facilitaon and talking. o The note-takers will NOT interact with the group at all. o Emphasize to them that one of the most important outputs of the workshop are the insights of the parcipants. Tell them, your job is to get the parcipants talking and their (note-takers’) job is to capture all of those insights. Tell them it can be difficult and they need to listen carefully. o Briefly describe the plan for the breakout session. o Tell them up front that they will have to listen very closely especially a‹er the video, a‹er the parcipants place bets on the map. o Suggest the note takers to divide the parcipants among themselves (e.g. first six si’ng up front on the le‹ side of the table, etc). They will be primarily responsible to capture what this group of people said. • Tell the note-takers how to take notes: o Write name or inials of the person and gist of what s/he is saying. o Ideally capture what is said verbam. 9:45 – 10:00

Appendix e 131 PHASE / TASKS TIME Introducon • Introduce yourself (name and associaon) • Ask note takers to introduce themselves. Inform the group that one of the most important outputs of this workshop is the parcipants’ insights and the note takers will be capturing those notes. • Tell which scenario this group is going to discuss and ask everyone to make sure they are in the right room 10:00 – 10:05 Immersion in the scenario • Inform that the audience needs to “live” in the <scenario name> in year 2037 for next 40 minutes. “I want you to describe the world in <scenario name>” • Ask if they have read the scenario. (Some heads will nod). Ask parcipants nodding heads to describe the key facets of the scenario. Go around the room and ask different people to describe the world. There are two goals: (1) get people talking and (2) start highlighng important aspects of the scenario. • Before workshop: Prepare a list of important facets of your scenario. During “Immersion…”: mentally cross items off this list as people bring them out. • A‹er about 10 minutes, the audience should have hit most, if not all, of the major points. • Tell: “Now that we understand the world we are living in, let’s check our news…” Play the video. • Ask what aspects of “our world” they saw in the video. The goal here is to reemphasize the key points. • If the parcipants have missed any key point, ask them “what do you think about…?” 10:05 – 10:35 (end by 10:20) (end by 10:25) (end by 10:30) (end by 10:35) Scenario implicaons • Ask: “So, how does the freight environment of the US and the 10:35 – 10:55

132 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment PHASE / TASKS TIME Delaware Valley look like in this scenario?” (There are no right/wrong answers here. We are looking for individual insights. There are three goals: Make sure that (1) everyone gets to contribute, (2) no one is domina ng the group, and (3) people are not talking nonsense.) • The group should be talking about some of the following things o Macro freight environment (global vs. local) o For the freight (i) origina ng from, (ii) coming into and (iii) passing through Delaware Valley region: volume, value density, origin, des na on, and mode. o Change in the preference/demand for different modes (roads, rail, water, air) o Store-delivery versus home-delivery o Rela ve prices and availability of various energy sources; socio-poli cal preferences for energy sources • This discussion should begin to create a sense of which routes and modes will experience higher demand, and which ones won’t. Vote on candidate investment bundles • Inform the par cipants that now we want to understand which infrastructure investment bundles we want to invest in TODAY to prepare for the scenario in YEAR 2037 we have just described. • Place the big map of candidate investments on the table (if not already there). Inform the group that each one has to evaluate the a—rac veness of eight investment bundles described in the morning. Tell them the map on the table shows those investment bundles. Give them a minute to view the map. Also inform them that each one has a copy of this map in their packet. • Give each par cipant a bag containing chips. Tell the group that we are going to use chips to indicate which projects we want to invest in NOW to be prepared for the world. • Tell them what the chips mean: 10:55 – 11:25 (end by 11:00) (end by 11:05)

Appendix e 133 PHASE / TASKS TIME o Tell them they have 1 chip (color?) worth 25 points, 5 chips worth 10 points each, and 5 chips worth 5 points each. Thus they have 100 points. These chips are used to indicate relave importance of the investment bundles DVRPC should invest in today to prepare for 2040. o They also have 3 black chips. One chip indicates which bundles to not invest in. • Ask everyone to pull out “Individual Investment Decision” form. Ask them to write down individually how they will assign the chips to each investment. Give the following instrucons: o Each has at most 100 points to assign to bundles to invest in (one may use less than 100) o Each one has to choose at least one bundle and at most three bundles to NOT invest in. o They cannot assign investment points to a bundle and say do not invest (but okay if group does that) • Give about 3-5 minutes to think and write. • Once everyone seems to have wriŒen their answers, ask them to place their chips on the map as per their votes on the Individual Investment Decision form: o by color • Facilitate the discussion based on the votes. The goal of the discussion is to capture the insights behind the vong. Here are some pointers for which investment bundles to discuss: o Bundles with both “Invest” and “Do not invest” chips o Bundles with maximum “Invest” points o Bundles with maximum “Do not invest” chips o Bundles that have no votes at all – either “Invest” or “Do not invest” (end by 11:07) (end by 11:12) (end by 11:17) (end by 11:30) Ask the parcipants to create stacks for each investment

134 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment PHASE / TASKS TIME o Bundles that have very lile chips Discuss any “Other” projects • Ask if there are any “Other” bundles to invest in. • Ask parcipants if they have suggested any other projects, ask them to describe the investment. Ask if any other parcipants would vote on them. 11:30 – 11:35 Change in vote based on group discussion • Ask the parcipants if they would like to change the vote based on the discussion. If they do, let them and have discussion. • Ask them to circle any votes they changed on the form and write their new vote next to it – without erasing or crossing out the old vote. 11:35 – 11:48 Wrap up • Ask if the parcipants have any comments before they break. • Ask the group to submit the Individual Investment Decision form to you. • Break the group for a working lunch and scenario debrief in the main conference room starng at noon. 11:48 – 11:50 Aˆer the workshop • Write the number of chips of each of four types on the investment map on the table. • Ask the note-takers to give three to five important insights they captured. • Give the map with the number of votes to the main facilitator for the workshop. From the insights given by note-takers and the ones you captured, find top five or six. Pass these to the main facilitator to include in the presentaon. • Main facilitator will have 10 minutes to enter data and prepare the presentaon. 11:50 – 12:15 (end by 12:00) (end by 12:10) (end by 12:15) (end by 12:25)

Appendix e 135 Time Acvity 8:00 – 8:30 Registraon and Sign In 8:30 – 8:45 Welcome and Project Overview (Minnesota DOT) 8:45 – 9:15 Introducon to the Scenario Planning (Dr. Chris Caplice) 9:15 – 9:40 Overview of Freight Acon Bundles (Minnesota DOT) 9:40 – 9:50 Direcons for Exercise (Dr. Chris Caplice) 9:50 – 10:00 Break and report to breakout group 10:00 – 12:15 Interactive workshop Scenario immersion (~30 minutes) • Inform that the group needs to “live” in the <scenario name> in year 2037 for next 2 hours. • Ask if they have read the scenario. (Some heads will nod). Ask parcipants nodding heads to describe the key facets of the scenario. Go around the room and ask different people to describe the world. There are two goals: (1) get people talking and (2) start highlighng key aspects of the scenario. • Mentally cross items off the list of important facets of your scenario as people bring them out. A™er about 10 minutes, the audience should have hit most, if not all, of the major points. • Tell: “Now that we understand the world we are living in, let’s check our news…” Play the video. • Ask what aspects of “our world” they saw in the video. The goal here is to reemphasize the key points. • If the parcipants have missed any key point, ask them “what do you think about…?” Scenario implicaons (~15 minutes) • Ask: “How does the freight environment of the US and Minnesota look like in this scenario?” (No right/wrong answers here. We are looking for individual insights. There are three goals: (1) everyone gets to

136 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity contribute, (2) no one is domina ng the group, and (3) people are not talking nonsense • The group should be talking about some of the following things o Macro freight environment (global vs. local) o For the freight (i) origina ng from, (ii) coming into and (iii) passing through Minn: volume, value density, origin, des na on, and mode. o Change in the preference for different modes (roads, rail, water, air) o Store-delivery versus home-delivery o Rela ve prices and availability of various energy sources; socio- poli cal preferences for energy sources • Ask if the implica ons are any different within the ring, outside the ring but inside the county, and outside the county. Vong on FAB: (~15 minutes) • Hand out printout of the FAB to all par cipants. Ask if everyone understands the FABs. (If there are any ques ons, Minn DOT reps will be in each group.) • Assign 100 points to five FABs, represen ng the rela ve important of each FAB in a given scenario. (There are no vetoes) • Individuals vote on their vote sheet and place chips on a large board • AŒer individual vo ng, ask if anyone wants to change the vote • Tally the votes for each FAB *Optional break (discre on of the facilitator while tallying the votes) Idenfy three iniaves in each FAB (~65 minutes) • Start with the FAB with the most votes (break any es randomly) • Nominal group brainstorm with s cky notes and easel pad (~3 min per FAB) • Real group brainstorm based on s cky notes; summarize and iden fy three key ini a ves for the FAB (~10 min per FAB) • Repeat for all FABs Real group brainstorm to idenfy sensors in the ground for the scenario (5 min)

Appendix e 137 Time Acvity Appoint two representaves to present the group’s results (one each from private and public sectors) 12:15 – 13:00 Lunch (During lunch, MIT facilitators summarize the results for all groups for cross- scenario analysis) 13:00 – 14:30 Plenary session Presentaon of results for individual scenario (~10-12 min/group x 4 = 45 minutes) • Ranking of FAB and brief ra‹onale • Three ini‹a‹ves within each FAB • Sensors in the ground Cross-scenario discussion (~45 minutes), led by CTL facilitators • Show ranking of FABs across four scenarios (one slide) • For each FAB (star‹ng with one with maximum total points in all four groups) o Present all ini‹a‹ves iden‹fied by the par‹cipants from four groups o Iden‹fy the ini‹a‹ves common across more than one scenario. For each such ini‹a‹ve Ask the groups that iden‹fied them, why they found it useful ▪ Ask the group(s) that did not iden‹fy them, if they are useful, hur•ul, or benign (neither useful nor hur•ul) in their scenario o For ini‹a‹ves iden‹fied in only one scenario, ask if they are useful, hur•ul, or benign each of the remaining scenarios • Present list of sensors iden‹fied by each scenario group 14:30 – 14:45 Wrap up ▪ ●▪▪

138 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity 8:00 – 8:30 Registraon and Sign In 8:30 – 8:50 Welcome and Project Overview (Washington DOT, WSDOT) 8:50 – 9:00 Overview of Freight Infrastructure Segments (WSDOT) 9:00 – 9:45 Introducon to the Scenario Planning (Dr. Chris Caplice) 9:45 – 10:00 Break and report to breakout group 10:00 – 12:30 Interactive workshop Scenario immersion (~30 minutes) • Tell the group that for next 2 hours they will be living in the <scenario name> world and that it is 2037. Ask if they have read the scenario. (Some heads will nod). • Ask participants to describe the world. Go around the room and ask different people to. The two goals are: (1) get people talking and (2) start highlighng key aspects/facets of that scenario. • Mentally cross items off the list of important facets of your scenario as people bring them out. A˜er about 10 minutes, the audience should have hit most, if not all, of the major points. • Say, “Now that we understand the world we are living in, let’s check our news…” Play the video. • Ask how the newscast changed or reinforced their thoughts on their scenario. The goal here is to reemphasize the key points. • If the parcipants have missed any key point, ask them “what do you think about…?” Scenario implications (~15 minutes) • Ask: “How does the freight environment of the US and Washington state look like in this scenario?” (No right/wrong answers here. We are looking for individual insights. There are three goals: (1) everyone gets to contribute, (2) no one is dominang the group, and (3) people are not talking nonsense

Appendix e 139 Time Acvity • The group should be talking about some of the following things o Macro freight environment (global vs. local) o For the freight (i) originang from, (ii) coming into and (iii) passing through Washington state: volume, value density, origin, desnaon, and mode. o Change in the preference for different modes (roads, rail, water, air) o Relave prices and availability of various energy sources; socio- polical preferences for energy sources Individual vong: (~15 minutes) • Ask “Does everyone understand the Freight Infrastructure Segments?” Make sure everyone has the maps. (If there are any quesons, WSDOT reps will be in each group.) • Say, “Please pull out and fill in your Individual Investment Decision forms.” They will first vote privately (on paper) and then publically with chips. The rules: o Posive Votes - Assign 100 points across the 16 segments (in mulples of 5), represenng the relave importance of each segment in the given scenario. More points = more importance o Veto Votes – they must veto at least one and up to three segments. o One cannot assign investment points and veto the same segment • A’er 3-5 minutes to think and write, tell them to place chips on the board • Tally the votes for each segment Group discussion of votes and real-group vong: (~30 minutes) • Facilitate the discussion based on the votes. Ask “Why did you vote this way?” or “What was your thinking for these segments?” • Priorize the segment discussion by the more controversial ones first: o Segments with both “Invest” and “Veto” chips

140 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity o Segments with maximum “Invest” points o Segments with maximum “Veto” chips o Segments with no or very few chips (either “Invest” or “Veto” chips) • Ask, “Does anyone wants to change their vote?” Allow people to change votes accordingly. Change chips and display the final score. Post-voting survey and brief break after survey (~15 minutes) • You will hand out a paper survey and ask them take a short break while they fill it out. • Also, tell them that a­er the break, “You will be asked to combine these individual segments into Freight Corridors. Start thinking how you want to do this.” Forming Freight Corridors (~15 minutes) • Ask “Now let's try to form a primary corridor for the State of Washington.” Have them iden‚fy which of the 16 segments to bundle into a con‚guous corridor • A corridor is a mul‚-modal collec‚on of segments put together as a “transporta‚on system.” Therefore, the individual segments may or may not appear in the final corridor despite its earlier vote. • Pick one of the maps and draw the corridor on it. Idenfying Corridor Iniaves (~30 minutes) • Ask “Now let's try to idenfy some iniaves that WSDOT should take to improve this Freight Corridor.” Have them brainstorm silently with s‚cky pads – one ini‚a‚ve per – and put them on the easels. • A­er 5-10 minutes ask, “I need two volunteers to report out to the larger group.” Have the group brainstorm out loud to consolidate and iden‚fy up to five ini‚a‚ves for this corridor. 12:30 – 13:15 Lunch (Show scenario videos) 13:15 – 14:30 Plenary session Cross-scenario summary (10 minutes) • Overview of all Scenarios – level se”ng • Show a few slides with invest & veto results for all 16 segments across the scenarios

Appendix e 141 Time Acvity Presentaon of corridors and iniaves by scenario (~10 min. x 4 = 40 minutes) • Each scenario team will describe their corridors (including segments included and not) and the reason for the choice • Each scenario team will then describe the five iniaves they idenfied Cross-scenario discussion of iniaves (20 minutes) • Discussion facilitated by CTL 14:30 – 14:45 Wrap up Time Acvity 9:00 – 9:30 Registraon and Sign In 9:30 – 10:30 Welcome, Project Overview, Overview of Freight Infrastructure Segments, Introducon to the Scenario Planning (Dr. Chris Caplice) 10:30 – 10:45 Break and report to breakout group 10:45 – 13:00 Interactive workshop Scenario immersion (~35 minutes) • Tell the group that for the next 45 minutes they will be living in the <scenario name> world in year 2037. Ask if they have read the scenario. (Some heads will nod). • Ask participants to describe the world. Go around the room and ask different people. The two goals are: (1) get people talking and (2) start highlighng key aspects/facets of that scenario. • Mentally cross items off the list of important facets of your scenario as people bring them out. Ašer about 10 minutes, the audience should have hit most, if not all, of the major points. • Say, “Now that we understand the world we are living in, let’s check our news…” Play the video. • Ask how the newscast changed or reinforced their thoughts on their scenario. The goal here is to reemphasize the key points.

142 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity • If the parcipants have missed any key point, ask them “what do you think about…?” Scenario implications (~20 minutes) • Ask: “How does the import/export environment of the US through Southern California look like in this scenario?” (No right/wrong answers here. We are looking for individual insights. There are three goals: (1) everyone gets to contribute, (2) no one is dominang the group, and (3) people are not talking nonsense • The group should be talking about some of the following things o Macro freight environment (global vs. local) o For the freight (i) originang from, (ii) coming into and (iii) passing through Southern California: volume, value density, origin, desnaon, and mode. o Change in the preference for different modes (roads, rail, water, air) o Relave prices and availability of various energy sources; socio- polical preferences for energy sources. Individual vong: (~20 minutes) • Ask “Pull out the leer-sized paper in your folder called “Freight Infrastructure Segments.” This shows 15 segments chosen for today’s exercise.” Make sure everyone has the maps. • Say, “Now, come back to Apr 13, 2011. Think about which of these segments we need to invest in TODAY to be ready for <scenario name> in year 2040.” Give instrucons to complete the Individual Investment Decision forms. The parcipants first vote privately on these forms and then publically with chips. Explain the following rules: o Posive Votes - Assign 100 points across the 15 segments (in mulples of 5), represenng the relave importance of each segment in the given scenario. More points = more importance. The number of posive votes assigned to each segment refers to the importance of the segment – not budget! o Veto Votes – Each parcipant must veto at least one and up to three segments.

Appendix e 143 Time Acvity o One cannot assign investment points and veto the same segment • Aer about 5 minutes to think and write, tell them to place chips on the board • Tally the votes for each segment Brief break (15 minutes) – count the chips • Display the group’s vote to the enre group. Everyone should be able to see the number of invest points and vetoes assigned to each segment. Group discussion of votes and real-group vong: (~20 minutes) • Facilitate the discussion based on the votes. The goal is to understand the raonale behind the investment decisions made by the individuals. • Priorize the segment discussion by the interesting segments, in the following order: o Segments with both “Invest” and “Veto” chips o Segments with maximum “Invest” points o Segments with maximum “Veto” chips o Segments with no or very few chips (either “Invest” or “Veto” chips) • Ask, “Does anyone wants to change their vote”. Allow people to change votes accordingly. Change chips and display the final score. Idenfying iniaves (~35 minutes) • Ask “Now let's try to idenfy some iniaves we need to take TODAY to prepare for this scenario.” Have the group brainstorm nominally with scky pads – one iniave per scky note. Ask the individuals to put the scky notes on the poster pad. • Aer 5-10 minutes ask, “I need two volunteers to report out to the larger group.” Have the group brainstorm out loud to consolidate and idenfy up to five iniaves for this corridor. Post-voting survey (~25 minutes) • Thank the group for parcipang in the exercise. Inform them that other two groups are engaged in a similar exercise. We will get to see the other

144 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity scenarios aer lunch. Ask them what they thought about the scenario and the exercise. This is a 5-10 minute chitchat to bring them out of the scenario. • Hand out the quesonnaire. Say: “Now you have seen one scenario. This may or may not have changed the way you think about the future. What I would like you to do next is to complete the ques onnaire I am passing out. This is the same ques onnaire that you completed online before the workshop. While filling this ques onnaire, don’t think about the scenario we lived in anymore… But, take a few minutes to think about the kind of world we may live in in year 2040… You may or may not believe in the scenario. Just answer the ques ons based on what comes to your mind easily.” Thank the group for comple ng the ques onnaire. 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:30 Plenary session Cross-scenario summary (30 minutes) • Have everyone sit with his or her scenario teams. • Show scenario videos for all three scenarios used • Overview of all Scenarios – level se”ng Presentaon of iniaves by scenario (~10 min. x 3 = 30 minutes) • Each scenario team will describe their corridors (including segments includes and not) and the reason for the choice • Each scenario team will then describe the five ini a ves they iden fied • Encourage cross-discussion and ques oning from other teams Cross-scenario discussion of iniaves (30 minutes) • Show a few slides with invest & veto results for all segments across the scenarios • Discuss robust and con ngent investments • Have individuals vote for the segments (pick most robust) – vote by hand • Make a group vote for the priority segments • Show the Tech Savior video • Ask group how they would change their vo ng 15:30 – 16:00 Wrap up

Appendix e 145 Time Acvity 9:30 – 10:00 Registraon and Sign In 10:00 – 10:45 Welcome, Project Overview, Overview of Freight Infrastructure Segments, Introducon to the Scenario Planning (Dr. Chris Caplice) 10:45 – 11:00 Break and report to breakout group rooms 11:00 – 13:15 Interactive workshop end @11:30 Scenario immersion (~30 minutes) MINDSTATE 1(Future/Known) • Tell the group “For the next 45 minutes they will be living in the <scenario name> world in year 2037”. Ask “Have you read the scenario?” • Ask parcipants to “describe the world”. Go around the room and ask different people. The two goals are: (1) get people talking and (2) start highlighng key aspects/facets of that scenario. • Mentally cross items off the list of important facets of your scenario as people bring them out. A›er about 10 minutes, the audience should have hit most of the major points. • Say, “Now that we understand the world we are living in, let’s check our news…” Play the video. • A›er the video, ask “How has the newscast changed or reinforced your thoughts on the scenario?” The goal here is to reemphasize the key points. • If the parcipants have missed any key point, ask them “what do you think about…?” Scenario implications (~15 minutes) MINDSTATE 1(Future/Known) • Ask: “How does the freight environment for the State of Georgia and the Southeastern U.S. look like in this scenario?” (No right/wrong answers here. We are looking for individual insights. There are three goals: (1) everyone gets to contribute, (2) no one is dominang the group, and (3) people are not talking nonsense • The group should be talking about some of the following things o Macro freight environment (global vs. local) o For the freight (i) originang from, (ii) coming into and (iii) passing

146 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity end @ 11:45 take break @ ~ 12:05 start up by 12:15 end @12:35 through Georgia state: volume, value density, origin, desnaon, and mode. o Change in the preference for different modes (roads, rail, water, air) o Relave prices and availability of various energy sources; socio- polical preferences for energy sources Individual vong: (~20 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Ask “Pull out the leer-sized paper in your folder called “Freight Infrastructure Segments”. This shows 13 segments chosen for today’s exercise.” Make sure everyone has the maps. • Say, “Now, come back to May 9, 2011. Think about which of these segments we need to invest in TODAY to be ready for <scenario name> in year 2037.” Give instrucons to complete the Individual Investment Decision forms. The parcipants first vote privately on these forms and then publically with chips. Explain the following rules: o Posive Votes - Assign 100 points across the 13 segments (in mulples of 5), represenng the relave importance of each segment in the given scenario. More points = more importance. The number of posive votes assigned to each segment refers to the importance of the segment – not budget! o Veto Votes – Each parcipant must veto at least one and up to three segments. o One cannot assign investment points and veto the same segment • Aœer about 5 minutes to think and write, tell them to place chips on the board Brief break (10 minutes) – count the chips • Display the group’s vote to the enre group. Everyone should be able to see the number of invest points and vetoes assigned to each segment. Group discussion and Consensus: (~20 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Facilitate the discussion based on the votes. The goal is to understand the raonale behind the investment decisions made by the individuals.

Appendix e 147 Time Acvity End No Later than 13:15 • Priorize the segment discussion by the interesting segments, in the following order: o Segments with both “Invest” and “Veto” chips o Segments with maximum “Invest” points o Segments with maximum “Veto” chips o Segments with no or very few chips (either “Invest” or “Veto” chips) • Ask, “Does anyone want to change their vote”. Allow people to change votes accordingly. Change chips and display the final score. Idenfying iniaves (~35 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Ask “Now let's try to idenfy some aconable iniaves we need to take TODAY to prepare for this scenario.” Have the group brainstorm nominally with scky pads – one iniave per scky note. Ask the individuals to put the scky notes on the poster pad. • A„er 5-10 minutes ask, “I need two volunteers to report out to the larger group.” Have the group brainstorm out loud to consolidate and idenfy up to five iniaves for the scenario. Distribute quesonnaire and break for lunch MINDSTATE 3(Now/Unknown) • Thank the group for parcipang in the exercise. Hand out the quesonnaire. • Say: “Now you have seen one scenario. What I would like you to do next is to complete the quesonnaire I am passing out. Turn it in before we start the next session after lunch…. • This is the same quesonnaire that you completed online before the workshop. While filling this quesonnaire, assume the me is NOW and that the future is UNCERTAIN - it will not necessarily follow your scenario. • Also please write your name. Your responses are completely confidential.” 13:15 – 14:15 Lunch 14:15 – 16:00 Ask everyone to turn in their quesonnaires. end @13:10

148 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity end @14:45 end @15:15 end @16:00 Cross-scenario summary: Reveal videos of all scenarios used (30 minutes) • Have everyone sit with his or her scenario teams. Show scenario videos for all three scenarios used. Provide short overview of all Scenarios – level seng Presentaon of results and iniaves by scenario (~10 min. x 3 = 30 minutes) • Each scenario team will then describe the five iniaves they idenfied • Encourage cross-discussion and quesoning from other teams Cross-scenario discussion of iniaves (45 minutes) • Show the slide with invest & veto results for all segments across the scenarios • Discuss robust and conngent investments • Ask “Please now pick one segment that is the most crical for the future” • Show the Global Marketplace video and ask “How would you change Your votes?” 16:00 – 16:30 Wrap up Time Acvity 8:00 – 8:30 Registraon and Sign In 8:30 – 8:45 Welcome & Introducons (Tony Furst, Polly Tro‘enberg, John Horsley) 8:45 – 9:45 Introducon to the Scenario Planning & Freight Segments (Dr. Chris Caplice) 9:45 – 10:00 Break and report to breakout group rooms 10:00 – 12:30 Interactive workshop Scenario immersion (~30 minutes) MINDSTATE 1(Future/Known) • Tell the group “For the next 45 minutes they will be living in the <scenario name> world in year 2037”. Ask “Have you read the scenario?” • Ask parcipants to “describe the world”. Go around the room and ask different people. The two goals are: (1) get people talking and (2) start highlighng key aspects/facets of that scenario.

Appendix e 149 Time Acvity end @10:30 end @ 10:45 • Mentally cross items off the list of important facets of your scenario as people bring them out. Aer about 10 minutes, the audience should have hit most of the major points. • Say, “Now that we understand the world we are living in, let’s check our news…” Play the video. • Aer the video, ask “How has the newscast changed or reinforced your thoughts on the scenario?” The goal here is to reemphasize the key points. • If the par†cipants have missed any key point, ask them “what do you think about…?” Scenario implications (~15 minutes) MINDSTATE 1(Future/Known) • Ask: “How does the freight environment for the United States look like in this scenario?” (No right/wrong answers here. We are looking for individual insights. There are three goals: (1) everyone gets to contribute, (2) no one is domina†ng the group, and (3) people are not talking nonsense • The group should be talking about some of the following things o Macro freight environment (global vs. local) o For the freight (i) origina†ng from, (ii) coming into and (iii) passing through US: volume, value density, origin, des†na†on, and mode. o Change in the preference for different modes (roads, rail, water, air) o Rela†ve prices and availability of various energy sources; socio- poli†cal preferences for energy sources Q1 Priority of Components: (~15 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Ask “Pull out the leer-sized paper in your folder called “Infrastructure Components”. This shows the 12 infrastructure components chosen for today’s exercise.” • Say, “Now, come back to JUNE 28th, 2011. Where should we priori†ze federal funds NOW given that the future described in your scenario in 2037 is going to occur?”

150 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity take break @ ~ 11:00 start up by 11:10 • Tell them, “Remember, this is for federal funds (including the US Army Corps of Engineers). You should not feel constrained about silo-ed funding.” • Hand out the Q1 Investment Programs individual voƒng sheets and put the 11x17 Group Voƒng sheets on a center table. • Ask them to first vote privately on these forms and then publically with chips. • Hand out the chips – each person gets 12 colored and three black chips. • Explain the following rules: o Posiƒve Votes – Place your 12 chips across the 12 components to represent the relaƒve importance of each component in the given scenario. More points = more importance. The number of posiƒve votes assigned to each segment refers to the importance of the segment – not budget! Colors of chips are irrelevant. o Veto Votes – Each parƒcipant must veto at least one and up to three components. o One cannot assign investment points and veto the same segment • A•er about 5 minutes to think and write, tell them to place chips on the board Brief break (10 minutes) – count the chips • Write the number of chips and vetoes on the chart. Display the group’s vote to the enƒre group. Everyone should be able to see the number of invest points and vetoes assigned to each segment. Group discussion and Consensus: (~15 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Facilitate the discussion based on the votes. The goal is to understand the raƒonale behind the investment decisions made by the individuals. • Prioriƒze the segment discussion by the interesting segments, in the following order:

Appendix e 151 Time Acvity FINISH NLT 12:30 and NET 12:20 o Segments with both “Invest” and “Veto” chips o Segments with maximum “Invest” points o Segments with maximum “Veto” chips o chips) • Ask, “Does anyone wants to change their vote”. Allow people to change votes accordingly. Change chips and display the final score. Q2 - Level of Investment iniaves (~30 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Ask “Now let's drill in a lile deeper. We have combined the Gateways a lile bit here by type. What level of investment should the federal Government take for each type of infrastructure? Choose between Maintain Existing, Improve Existing, and Add New.” • Explain the levels – refer to the Infrastructure Components sheet – on the back. • Hand out the Q2 Level of Investment Individual Vo‚ng Sheet and have them vote individually on the sheet – Only one check per row. • While they are filling out their sheets, hand each par‚cipant nine chips of any color and have them vote. • There are chip limits by investment level: o Maintain Exis‚ng– unlimited o Improve Exis‚ng – No More Than 3 o Add New – No More Than 2 • Quickly tally the votes, write it on the sheet, post it, and open discussion. Q3 – Policy & Funding (~20 minutes) MINDSTATE 2(Now/Known) • Ask “Now let's look at where POLICY should be made and how FUNDING should be provided. For POLICY, check the level where it should be made for each component. For FUNDING, check where the PRIMARY funding should come from for each component.” • Hand out the Q3 Policy Level and Funding Source Individual vo‚ng sheets. • Have them vote individually where each person puts one check per row for POLICY and one per row for FUNDING. Thus, each row should have two and only two checks. • While they are vo‚ng, hand each person 18 chips (color does not end @11:25 end @11:55 end @12:15 Segments with no or very few chips (either “Invest” or “Veto”

152 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Time Acvity maer). Have them place them according to their individual votes. They must use all chips. • Quickly tally the votes, write it on the sheet, post it, and open discussion. Wrap Up and Final Comments (use remaining me) • Ask, “I need two volunteers to report out to the larger group.” Tell them we will show their responses on the screen – they only need to explain their choices 12:30 – 13:30 Lunch 13:30 – 14:00 End @ 14:00 End @14:45 end @15:30 Cross-scenario summary: Reveal (30 minutes) • Have people sit in their groups. • Show scenario videos for all scenarios used. • Provide short overview of all Scenarios – level seƒng. • ELECTRONIC VOTING. – 1. Which scenario is most like TODAY? 2. Which scenario is MOST LIKELY to occur? 3. Which Scenario is MOST PREFERRED? Presentaon of results and iniaves by scenario (~10 min. x 4 = 45 minutes) • Each scenario team will then describe the five ini˜a˜ves they iden˜fied • Encourage cross-discussion and ques˜oning from other teams Cross-scenario discussion of iniaves (45 minutes) • Show the slide with invest & veto results for all segments across the scenarios • Discuss robust and con˜ngent investments • ELECTRONIC VOTING – 1. Which component is MOST cri˜cal? 2. Which component is LEAST cri˜cal? • Discuss Sensors in the Ground 1. Vote on specific sensors (which is the most likely direc˜on) 15:30 – 16:00 Wrap up • ELECTRONIC VOTING – 1. What is the value of this type of workshop? (likert) 2. Likelihood that DOTs will use this process?

Appendix e 153 (a) sum of points and vetoes nbr of segments Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 2 485 3 275 8 290 3 235 9 Corridor 4 620 9 810 5 525 10 740 9 Connector 2 255 6 250 4 360 2 410 1 1360 18 1335 17 1175 15 1385 19 (b) proportion of points and vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 2 0.357 0.167 0.206 0.471 0.247 0.200 0.170 0.474 Corridor 4 0.456 0.500 0.607 0.294 0.447 0.667 0.534 0.474 Connector 2 0.188 0.333 0.187 0.235 0.306 0.133 0.296 0.053 (c) proportion of points and vetoes per segment Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 0.178 0.083 0.103 0.235 0.123 0.100 0.085 0.237 Corridor 0.114 0.125 0.152 0.074 0.112 0.167 0.134 0.118 Connector 0.094 0.167 0.094 0.118 0.153 0.067 0.148 0.026 GM MM N! OWO Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) GM MM N! OWO GM MM N! OWO (a) sum of points and vetoes nbr of segments Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 3 275 0 240 1 240 7 190 7 Corridor 12 980 17 925 16 1330 14 1095 5 Connector 1 45 3 40 4 0 9 25 4 1300 20 1205 21 1570 30 1310 16 (b) proportion of points and vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 3 0.212 0.000 0.199 0.048 0.153 0.233 0.145 0.438 Corridor 12 0.754 0.850 0.768 0.762 0.847 0.467 0.836 0.313 Connector 1 0.035 0.150 0.033 0.190 0.000 0.300 0.019 0.250 (c) proportion of points and vetoes per segment Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 0.071 0.000 0.066 0.016 0.051 0.078 0.048 0.146 Corridor 0.063 0.071 0.064 0.063 0.071 0.039 0.070 0.026 Connector 0.035 0.150 0.033 0.190 0.000 0.300 0.019 0.250 GM MM N! OWO GM MM N! OWO Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) GM MM N! OWO

154 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment (a) sum of points and vetoes nbr of segments Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 2 295 3 105 14 315 6 Corridor 10 430 15 1025 10 575 18 Connector 3 450 2 195 2 340 3 1175 20 1325 26 1230 27 (b) proportion of points and vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 2 0.251 0.150 0.079 0.538 0.256 0.222 Corridor 10 0.366 0.750 0.774 0.385 0.467 0.667 Connector 3 0.383 0.100 0.147 0.077 0.276 0.111 (c) proportion of points and vetoes per segment Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 0.126 0.075 0.040 0.269 0.128 0.111 Corridor 0.037 0.075 0.077 0.038 0.047 0.067 Connector 0.128 0.033 0.049 0.026 0.092 0.037 GM N! OWO GM N! OWO GM N! OWO Port of Long Beach (POLB) (a) sum of points and vetoes nbr of segments Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 3 180 4 190 3 220 8 Corridor 8 325 7 565 10 480 7 Connector 2 175 0 135 1 175 1 680 11 890 14 875 16 (b) proportion of points and vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 3 0.265 0.364 0.213 0.214 0.251 0.500 Corridor 8 0.478 0.636 0.635 0.714 0.549 0.438 Connector 2 0.257 0.000 0.152 0.071 0.200 0.063 (c) proportion of points and vetoes per segment Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 0.088 0.121 0.071 0.071 0.084 0.167 Corridor 0.060 0.080 0.079 0.089 0.069 0.055 Connector 0.129 0.000 0.076 0.036 0.100 0.031 MM N! OWO Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) MM N! OWO MM N! OWO

Appendix e 155 (a) sum of points and vetoes nbr of segments Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 6 67 4 72 12 56 17 54 19 Corridor 3 34 3 52 5 42 0 38 3 Connector 3 43 7 35 4 34 2 64 1 144 14 159 21 132 19 156 23 (b) proportion of points and vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 6 0.465 0.286 0.453 0.571 0.424 0.895 0.346 0.826 Corridor 3 0.236 0.214 0.327 0.238 0.318 0.000 0.244 0.130 Connector 3 0.299 0.500 0.220 0.190 0.258 0.105 0.410 0.043 (c) proportion of points and vetoes per segment Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Points Vetoes Gateway 0.078 0.048 0.075 0.095 0.071 0.149 0.058 0.138 Corridor 0.079 0.071 0.109 0.079 0.106 0.000 0.081 0.043 Connector 0.100 0.167 0.073 0.063 0.086 0.035 0.137 0.014 GM MM N! OWO GM MM N! OWO United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) GM MM N! OWO

Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005) TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (1998) TRB Transportation Research Board TSA Transportation Security Administration U.S.DOT United States Department of Transportation