Appendix B. Line Comments
GENERAL
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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1 | General | The intended audience should be more clearly explained in the Front Matter of the draft NCA4 in order to indicate the broad range of possible users of information in the report. |
2 | General | Similar usage of boxes across chapters would improve consistency across the report and provide readers with a clearer understanding of their general purpose. |
3 | Discussion of up scaling and downscaling within regional scales where data is available would be beneficial | |
4 | The term “stressors” is used throughout the draft NCA4. It would be useful to provide a definition of what it means in the context of this report early in the draft document. | |
5 | General | Increased usage of subject headers would help to guide readers through the chapters. This includes noting whether initial paragraphs in each chapter are intended to be a summary or an introduction. Introductions should include references while summaries do not need to include references. |
6 | General | It is recommended that the Front Matter (or an appendix) of the draft NCA4 provide information on how regions were determined and note more specifically the differences from the NCA3. |
7 | General | The Committee generally found the redundancy within chapters due to repetitious text in the executive summaries, main text, and traceable accounts to be cumbersome. Depending on how the final NCA4 report and derivative products will be structured, the NCA4 authors should consider more concise ways in which to present the material, particularly avoiding duplication between the main text and traceable accounts. |
8 | General | More information about the public engagement webinars and workshops for individual chapters would be beneficial to include. When was it, to whom, and how was participation solicited? |
1: OVERVIEW
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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9 | P19/L35-P20/L2 | The text implies that these water impacts will occur everywhere. It seems important in these high-level messages to acknowledge that there will be regional variation in droughts and floods. |
10 | P25/L35 | Chapter numbers are incorrect: Chapter 29 is the draft NCA4 mitigation chapter and Chapter 28 is the adaption chapter. |
11 | P50/L12 | The authors should mention that impacts vary by region, sector, and population vulnerability. |
12 | P50/L20-23 | This sentence could also mention carbon capture and use after “including energy efficiency.” |
13 | P19/L22-29 | Is “over the coming century” intended to mean the same as “by the end of the century”? It would seem useful to keep the same time frame for both statements. |
14 | P24/L10-11 | The Committee recommends moving land-management practices to the end of this list of drivers, because it probably has the least impact on wildfires. |
15 | P24/L23 | Change “resemble that” to “resemble those.” |
16 | P26/L3-14 | The upbeat tone of this paragraph sends a message of “We can do it,” which is effective. |
17 | P29/L13-14 | The graph of percent land area experiencing drought is the only short-term time series in this figure. Perhaps not surprisingly, it shows lots of variability, but the time series is not long enough to show a climate-driven trend. Can a drought-related parameter with a longer time series be used here instead? Without a longer time series or a clearer trend, this graph really is not informative to this general overview section. |
18 | P33/L32-33 | The Alaska chapter says the climate is warming twice as fast as the global average (not MORE THAN twice as fast). Use the same time interval in the overview chapter as in the Alaska chapter and make sure the message is the same. |
19 | P37/L6-9 | The Committee found no statement in the Alaska chapter saying that shellfish populations have been declining for 20 years and recommends the authors check this for consistency. |
20 | P45/L7 | The time frame over which 1-4 ft sea level rise is expected is not stated. The RCP scenarios are also not stated. This makes it confusing to relate this statement to Figure 1.4. |
21 | P49/L33-34 | The statement that emissions have stabilized is probably false. The Committee assumes that the authors mean to say that emissions are not increasing as rapidly. This should be clarified. |
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22 | P54/L6 | Delete the second occurrence of the word “access” in this sentence. |
4: ENERGY SUPPLY, DELIVERY, AND DEMAND
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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23 | P166/L23 | High winds can also damage renewable energy generation and oil platforms, in addition to damaging the electricity transmission and distribution as noted here. |
24 | P165/L12 | After the sentence about natural gas, there should be a sentence about renewable energy. After this insertion, the sentence “steps are being taken to ensure the safe and reliable” seems abrupt and unconnected to the previous sentence. Another paragraph where DOE’s voluntary partnership is mentioned could be useful. Alternatively, a slight revision could work, such as an addition like, “Many actions are underway across all energy sources to ensure … but much work remains to establish an energy system that can withstand current and future climate change risks.” |
25 | P171/L2 | Maintaining additional natural gas in storage will help prevent against supply shocks and price spikes. Considering supply abundance, most modeling suggests that increased storage is not likely to increase gas or electricity prices. |
5: LAND COVER AND LAND USE CHANGE
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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26 | P189/L13 | Demand for new settlements can also increase the economic cost of fire damage, as more homes move into wooded areas. |
27 | P189/L25 | The authors could also mention policies designed to increase biofuel production. |
28 | P203/L16 | It is not clear if the “promotes climate warming” here means that carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation will do this or if regional climates might be influenced through albedo and water and energy fluxes. Evidence presented on page 197, lines 1-10, focuses on local effects. |
29 | P192/L2128 | This sentence describes approaches to “increasing this carbon storage” and includes in the list of approaches “development of new generation biofuels.” While the other approaches do result in increased carbon storage, there is nothing inherent in increased use of biofuels that will |
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result in carbon storage by themselves, but rather would create more incentive to process and burn biomass. It is suggested that this be deleted from the list. | ||
30 | P205/L5 | The confidence section addresses impacts of climate change on “urbanization in the coastal zone,” but the only substantive text addressing the coastal zone is on page 195 in the draft chapter’s “state of the sector” section, where links to climate change impacts are not made (only land use land cover change is described). It would be useful to make the point, probably in the “state of the sector” section, that the changes that are described for the coastal zone lead to increased impacts. |
31 | P196/L16 | A definition for the “business-as-usual scenario” is needed, and/or reference to the description of scenarios in the draft NCA4 Front Matter. |
32 | P197/L1423 | There is some inconsistency in describing effects of aerosols (page 197, lines 14-15). They do not “reduce surface albedo,” but rather they “increase tropospheric albedo.” They reduce surface insolation. Lines 21-23 seem to get it right. |
33 | P199/L1214 | The expectation of conversion of irrigated agricultural land to dryland (based on the Elliott et al. 2014 reference) is reasonable in the long run (year 2100), but misses the shorter-term trend of increased irrigation and the regional differentiation that is likely in these patterns (e.g., Great Lakes versus Great Plains). See Brown, J. F., and M. S. Pervez (2014), Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture, Agricultural Systems, 127, 28-40, doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2014.01.004. |
34 | P199/L16 | The text says, “New policies will” The NCA4 authors do not know what new policies will do and it is not the job of the NCA4 authors to predict them. Policies certainly have affected patterns of agriculture in the past. It is recommended that this be deleted. |
6: FORESTS
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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35 | P221/L35 | Insert “and spring” (revised text would say “winter and spring flooding”). |
36 | P222/L1015 | Figure 6.5 is relevant for Pacific Northwest and some forests. Adaptation options to reduce hazardous fuels would not apply to mesic |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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forests that burn infrequently and whose fires would be difficult to manage. | ||
37 | P223/L6 | Add “fiber and wood products, fish and wildlife, and biodiversity” to the list of ecosystem services. |
38 | P223/L1112 | Provide a reference for this sentence. |
39 | P224/L7 | Define “large-scale disturbances.” Does this refer to area burned or intensity? |
40 | P224/L7-P225/L2 | Provide temporal information for “An increase in” and “In recent years.” |
41 | P225/L7 | Define the period of “record.” |
42 | P225/L11 | Define “were lost.” |
43 | P226/L11 | Define “human welfare.” Is this same as “human lives” mentioned on page 227, line 17? |
44 | P226/L14 | Replace “would” by “will” or explain use of conditional tense. |
45 | P227/L13 | Define “fire-prone forest ecosystems.” Does this mean they have experienced frequent, low severity fires in the past or that the dominant species have adaptations to survive fires? |
46 | P228/L7 | Specify the region or forest type where text says “some parts of the western United States.” |
47 | P228/L14 | An additional sentence is needed stating that the pattern, extent, and severity of future fires may be constrained by such breaks, provided that fire conditions do not overwhelm these barriers. |
48 | P228/L1618 | This sentence should clarify that prescribed burning in southern forests is an example of fire-prone managed forests. |
49 | P229/L1217 | More context for this sentence is needed. The fire suppression is in what type of forests and what type of insect outbreaks? Define what is meant by “reduced vigor.” Is “plant host” the same as “trees”? |
50 | P229/L26 | Insert “dry settings such as” so that revised text says “now threatens dry settings, such as the pine barrens of.” |
51 | P230/L3 | Replace “climate” with “moisture availability.” |
52 | P230/L13 | Include recent references in addition to Hicke et al. 2012. See recommended citations at the end of the line comments for this chapter. |
53 | P230/L1314 | This statement needs more explanation on the linkages between local short-term release of carbon dioxide and establishment of native plants. |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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54 | P230/L19 | Where do the mesic forests of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska fit into this scheme of water-limited versus energy-limited forests? Explaining this classification would be helpful. |
55 | P230/L2224 | Does “some locations” in this case refer to forests near urban areas? Some specificity is needed. |
56 | P230/L3031 | This sentence requires more information to explain the drought response of deciduous trees. |
57 | P230/L36 | Define “vegetative” competition. |
58 | P231/L1 | Replace “with” with “as a result of.” |
59 | P231/L3 | The text that says “these effects” is an unclear reference. |
60 | P231/L5 | Delete the word “margins” and revise text to say “elevation ranges.” |
61 | P231/L2022 | Increased flooding from heavy rainfall events can occur even in the absence of tree mortality. This sentence needs geographic specificity. |
62 | P232/L3-4 | The caption needs more information. What are the colors showing? Cumulative area impacted? What in the figure shows that individual and combined disturbances are important and important in what way? |
63 | P232/L8-9 | Explain why future conversion is expected to slow down. |
64 | P233/L1-2 | Since one of the key issues highlighted in this chapter is potential loss of forest land, it might be useful to specify the main processes causing forest loss in western forests. Is it mainly a result of wildfire and insect disturbances or is it human conversion of forest lands to other landcovers? Is it processes similar to those projected to occur, as described in the following paragraph? |
65 | P233/L25 | Is there more rain in the spring months as well? |
66 | P233/L2729 | Another result is earlier peak runoff in snow-fed headwater streams in the western U.S. “As a result…flushing of nutrients into streams has decreased.” The logic for this is unclear. Do late-melting snowbanks flush more nutrients than the same quantity of runoff caused by winter rains? Is it a difference in the total amount of precipitation and runoff or does the seasonal pattern of runoff influence how much nutrient flushing occurs? |
67 | P233/L33 | Define “climate-related changes in forest structure.” |
68 | P233/L3435 | Explain that beetle outbreaks and wildfire create forest openings and the resulting increase in surface run-off causes higher water yield. |
69 | P233/L38 | Define “altered.” |
70 | P234/L5 | Earlier snowmelt is primarily driven by increased temperatures, not by fires. |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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71 | P234/L6 | The word “value” (economic value?) is confusing. Perhaps replace this word with “magnitude.” |
72 | P234/L8 | Western should not be capitalized. |
73 | P234/L20 | Insert the word “first” (text should say “can first be reduced by”). |
74 | P234/L21 | Replace “in response to the risk” with “to sustain reduced risk.” |
75 | P234/L2324 | Explain why tree growth, carbon sequestration, and water supply are considered ecological risks. This is unclear. |
76 | P235/L2729 | Stand reductions to increase forest resistance/resilience to fire, insects, and drought would be effective for some but not all forest types (e.g., mesic forests, high-elevation forests, deciduous hardwood forests). This sentence needs some qualifiers. |
77 | P236/L3-15 | The topic of this paragraph is unclear. Application of what practices and their goal should be restated. Plantation management of tree species is appropriate in forests solely managed for their wood products, but does not cover large tracts of forests on federal lands, which have multiple use mandates. The emphasis on timber extraction is not balanced. |
78 | P236/L2023 | Why does lower forest output lead to lower prices of products? Wouldn’t supply-demand relationships lead to the opposite effect? |
79 | P236/L23 | The cited Vaughan and Mackes (2015) study reports on a survey of Colorado forestry contractors and does not address timber output versus prices or the efficacy of adaptation treatments and incentives. The point seems counterintuitive and needs more discussion. |
80 | P236/L25 | What is “climate-smart” forest management? |
81 | P237/L2-P238/L6 | Where is this photo taken? Describe where beaver reintroduction is underway. |
82 | P238/L8 | More information about the public engagement webinar would be beneficial to include. When was it, to whom, and how was participation solicited? |
83 | P238/L2224 | There is an unclear reference to “severe ecological disturbances” in light of reference to “other disturbances” in next sentence. More specificity or explanation of both types of disturbance is recommended. |
84 | P238/L24 | There is an unclear reference to Hicke et al. 2016. Explain what is meant by “in combination with other disturbances.” |
85 | P238/L25 | Abatzoglou and Kolden (2013) should be cited here for western U.S. forests. Abatzoglou, J. T., and C. A. Kolden (2013), Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22:1003-1020. |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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86 | P238/L25 | Give time frame for phrase “in recent years.” |
87 | P238/L32 | “Re-burns” have not been mentioned previously, so they should be defined and explained. |
88 | P238/L3233 | The potential for subsequent fires also depends on fire-fighting and postfire management actions. Discussion of this is recommended. |
89 | P239/L3 | This is the first mention of “historical range of variability.” It should be defined, referenced and discussed. |
90 | P239/L1720 | Define “gradual climate change” in this paragraph and note that the examples cited come from North America and Europe. This statement should link to Chapter 7, “Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity.” |
91 | P239/L2325 | This is an unclear statement. More specificity where the text says “can affect suitable habitat” is needed. Define or replace “elevation range margins” with “elevational ranges” or define “elevation range margins.” |
92 | P239/L3738 | The cited Caldwell et al. 2016 study is a local study in North Carolina, which attributes lower runoff to a combination of changes to climate, structure, and species composition, not just climate. Reference to Roman et al. 2015 seems inappropriate for this point. |
93 | P240/L1618 | Describe the long-term observations (and location) that are referred to here. It is a cryptic point. |
94 | P240/L33 | This citation should say “McCarthy et al. 2006.” Wear and Coulson 2015 seems to be a better citation for this point. |
95 | P240/L36 | Specify the locations (“some locations”) where this may be true. |
96 | P241/L1-4 | This sentence somewhat overstates the conclusion of Kurz et al. 2008, which looks at the loss of carbon from mountain pine beetle outbreaks in British Columbia. It is a single study. |
97 | P241/L7 | It would be helpful to provide some context for this statement as it does not apply equally to all forests (e.g., Pacific Coastal forests, eastern forests). |
98 | P241/L3536 | Identify the location of the studies in the Cascades and state the duration of the impact (decreased reflectivity, etc.). |
99 | P241/L37 | Explain how the conclusions of Luce et al. 2012 were informed by the more recent studies of Gleason et al. 2016 and Cooper et al. 2016. Luce et al. is an older study in a different region. |
100 | P242/L6-9 | There are surprisingly few long-term (tree-ring) studies on carbon dioxide effects on tree growth in older trees. The authors may consider citing Gedalof and Berg (2010). |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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Gedalof, Z., and A. A. Berg (2010), Tree ring evidence for limited direct CO2 fertilization of forests over the 20th century, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24(3), doi:10.1029/2009GB003699. | ||
101 | P242/L6 | Define “altered disturbance patterns.” Note that some of the uncertainty comes from the resolution of downscaled climate model projections. |
102 | P242/L8 | This is unclear. What particular future trends in natural and socioeconomic systems are critical? |
103 | P242/L20 | The statement of “reduced tree growth and carbon storage observations” needs specific context. |
104 | P242/L3035 | This planning effort should be identified by name, location, and the organization doing the planning. The list is too general to be helpful without more information. |
105 | P242/L36-P243/L6 | This discussion would benefit from literature on fire resilience efforts (i.e., living with fire). The cited Schoennagel et al. 2017 is a good start, but see additional suggestions in the reference list following the line comments for this chapter. |
106 | P243/L14 | The reference to Worrall et al. 2013 seems inappropriate, since it addresses aspen decline. |
107 | P243/L1718 | There is an unclear reference: “more abundant [than what]”? |
108 | P243/L24 | Add “conservation of biodiversity or endangered species” and “protection of plants/places of special importance to indigenous peoples” to the list of specific actions. |
Chapter 6-Suggested References
FIRE TRENDS AND LEGACY EFFECTS |
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RAPID FOREST CHANGE AND DISTURBANCE SYNERGIES |
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LONG-TERM FOREST CHANGE |
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FIRE ADAPTATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT |
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PALEOECOLOGY |
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7: ECOSYSTEMS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, AND BIODIVERSITY
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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109 | P257/L14 | Insert “-” (revised text would say “large marine-ecosystem scales”). |
110 | P257/L2125 | Not all of the topics listed here are discussed in the chapters in the context of the many people, communities, and economies that depend on the services. |
111 | P259/L4 | Delete “_” |
112 | P259/L5 | The clause “, which include” has an unclear reference. If this is a definition of ecosystems, it should be clearly called out. |
113 | P259/L6 | Ecosystem services should be clearly defined. |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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114 | P259/L9 | The United States is sometimes abbreviated as U.S. and elsewhere it is spelled out. This should be discussed consistently across the chapter (and report). |
115 | P259/L14 | Insert “in the future” after “change” so that the text reads, “change in the future still.” |
116 | P259/L2131 | By focusing on the “state” of biodiversity and ecosystems, the NCA4 authors place a singular focus on impacts on species, communities, etc. There is virtually no mention of what ecosystem services are likely to be affected, as flows from “stock” (biodiversity and natural ecosystem components) to people, which is the definition of ecosystem services. |
117 | P259/L24 | The word “phenology” should be moved to come after “migration.” |
118 | P259/L2939 | “This” is an unclear reference. |
119 | P259/L3031 | Insert “or past response” so that the text reads, “modeling its individual components or past response.” |
120 | P259/L34 | Provide a specific example of a shift in phenology and population performance. |
121 | P259/L35-P260/L1 | The cited Cleland et al. 2012, Willis et al. 2010, Chuine 2010, Zimova et al. 2017, are not in the reference list and are inconsistently formatted with other references in the chapter. |
122 | P260/L6 | The word “or” should be replaced by “and/or.” |
123 | P260/L7-9 | Insert a time span of observation for these statements about range changes and provide some specific examples. |
124 | P260/L1012 | Range shifts are different among terrestrial species as well, so it is not clear what in this statement is unique to marine plankton. |
125 | P260/L1516 | This assertion that species will move north and up is too simplistic. Several studies in the western U.S., for example, show complex range changes that best track changes in effective moisture. |
126 | P260/L7-8 | Over what time have communities shifted ranges? This observation is not helpful without more information about the community, the time span of observation, or the location. |
127 | P260/L18 | This is unclear: “species’ responses” to what? Is this a reference to their range changes? |
128 | P260/L20 | Define “other stressors” or remove this phrase if it is covered in the list already. |
129 | P260/L21 | It is unclear what is meant by “topography and the interaction of different climate aspects.” |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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130 | P260/L2829 | The text needs a time span for “increasing rate of introduction of nonnative species globally.” |
131 | P260/L30 | This is unclear: “costs” of what? |
132 | P260/L32 | Define “novel communities.” |
133 | P260/L3233 | The references provided in support of this point are inappropriate. A specific example is also needed. |
134 | P261/L2 | Do the authors mean to say “native species” instead of “existing nonnative species”? This should be clarified. |
135 | P261/L10 | Suggest replacing “manifested through” with “as evidenced by.” |
136 | P261/L1112 | The list is not parallel. It is suggested that “the ecosystem services they support” be replaced with “ecosystem services.” |
137 | P261/L12 | Instead of stating, “Nationally” it is suggested that “Across the U.S.” be used. |
138 | P261/L12 | This is unclear: “starting earlier” than when? |
139 | P261/L1516 | It is unclear what the temporal baseline for this observation is. This should be explained. |
140 | P261/L2123 | Provide an example to support this sentence. |
141 | P261/L28 | Replace “predators” with “consumers.” |
142 | P261/L35 | Replace “are able” with “will” in both places. |
143 | P262/L5-8 | Rewrite “stressors increase stress.” Explain how a human-caused stressor “decreases the overall gene pool.” Provide an example. |
144 | P262/L6 | It is unclear what is meant by “natural systems.” |
145 | P262/L1316 | Provide a specific example for some of these groups. |
146 | P262/L1619 | Provide an example of an evolutionary change in response to climate change. |
147 | P262/L2024 | These two sentences seem contradictory. Evolution will not counteract the negative effects of climate change and evolution will have negative effects. This point needs clarification (and an example). |
148 | P262/L34 | Delete “(.” |
149 | P262/L3738 | It is unclear what “other factors” are. Please specify. |
150 | P263/L5 | Replace “, which has” with “, and this change.” |
151 | P263/L5 | Hyphenate “mid-latitude.” |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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152 | P263/L6-7 | This sentence about mixed evidence is cryptic without more information. Also note the time span for decreased productivity (last century). |
153 | P263/L12 | Define the timeframe for “recent observations.” |
154 | P263/L1315 | For clarity, explain the link between increased productivity and changes in fisheries catch. |
155 | P263/L2024 | This statement needs an example. Higher energetic needs would be a direct result of warmer temperatures, drought, and extreme events. This should be factored into this sentence, which focuses only on biotic interactions. Also define “resource mismatches.” |
156 | P263/L2427 | This statement would benefit from an example. |
157 | P263/L38 | This last sentence in this paragraph is cryptic. What are the debates? It would be good to cite Barnosky et al. 2017 here. Barnosky, A. D., et al. (2017), Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems, Science, 355(6325), doi:10.1126/science.aah4787. |
158 | P264/L5-37 | The template is not followed for the Regional Roll-Up and the second paragraph is a mish mash of unrelated topics. Some of the statements are questionable (e.g., attributing salmonid declines to climate change versus bears). It is suggested that reference be made to information provided in particular regional chapters. For instance, Tolan and Fisher, 2009 is cited in the draft NCA4 Chapter 23. |
159 | P264/L26 | Endangered fisheries are the result of land use change as much as climate change. |
160 | P265/L22 | Give an example to support this statement about shifts in phenology. |
161 | P265/L2937 | This paragraph refers to climate change impacts on ecosystem services, but the information is too general to be evaluated. Some specificity and examples would help. |
162 | P266/L6-12 | The treatment of U.S. federal agency policies/actions is vague. Provide specific example(s) to make it real for the reader. |
163 | P266/L8 | Insert “,” so that revised text would say “food conditions, they.” |
164 | P266/L2338 | References on climate resilience should be included here. |
165 | P266/L31 | Fix the citation: “Service 2013.” |
166 | P266/L32 | The authors should review and consider citing the guidance document Stein et al., 2014. |
# | Page/Line | Comment |
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Stein, B.A., P. Glick, N. Edelson, and A. Staudt (eds.). 2014. Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC. | ||
167 | P266/L36 | Define “holistic ecosystem-based approaches.” |
168 | P267/L4-5 | It is unclear what is meant by “mitigate the harmful impacts of current and future resource management challenges.” |
169 | P267/L5 | The word “agencies” should be in lower case. |
170 | P268/L1-2 | Cite references for the statement regarding range shift consequences. |
171 | P268/L28 | Insert time span to support “species respond to climate change.” |
172 | P268/L32 | Insert time span for “experienced range shifts.” |
173 | P268/L3235 | Define climate velocity. Also cite Dobrowski and Parks, 2016, for discussion of climate change velocity/exposure in mountainous areas. Dobrowski, S. Z., and S. A. Parks (2016), Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions, Nature Communications, 7, 12349, doi:10.1038/ncomms12349. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms12349#supplementaryinformation. |
174 | P268/L34 | Explain why text says “can be greater,” rather than “is.” |
175 | P269/L1-2 | The first sentence needs some specific case studies for this to make sense. Provide some direct links to climate change and references to specific documents. |
176 | P269/L3 | Explain why timber production will shift as a result of climate change. |
177 | P269/L5-6 | Define “tragedy of the commons,” which will likely be unfamiliar to a general audience. |
178 | P269/L7-9 | This statement would benefit from an example and reference to regional chapters that discuss Indigenous issues. |
179 | P269/L8 | Delete “both.” |
180 | P269/L8-10 | More citations should be provided to support this sentence. There are more recent papers than Graves, 2008 and ones that cover full breadth of statement. |
181 | P269/L15 | Provide an example of “climate-induced phenological change” to support this sentence. |
182 | P269/L2024 | This interesting observation about migratory birds needs a time span for the data. |
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183 | P269/L2425 | It is unclear what is meant by “sufficiently advance migratory phenology.” |
184 | P269/L30 | Provide an example of altered pollinator-prey relationships. |
185 | P269/L35 | It is unclear what a “climatological expectation” is and what the time frame for this observation is. |
186 | P270/L4 | Define “standing genetic diversity.” |
187 | P270/L5 | This is unclear: “more gradual” than what? |
188 | P270/L6-9 | This observation suffers by the lack of specific examples. How is adaptation to climate change identified? |
189 | P270/L10 | Replace “other non climate-related stressors” with “non-climatic stressors” and define this term. |
190 | P270/L11 | Replace “predictions” with “projections.” Specify the critical climate variables (see draft NCA4 Chapter 2). |
191 | P270/L20 | Define “communities.” In this case, does this refer to human communities? |
192 | P270/L21 | Replace “communities” with “economies.” |
193 | P270/L22 | Explain: “economically vulnerable to what,” and how does this limit their response? |
194 | P270/L23 | Provide an example of an invasive species that is having an economic impact in the face of climate change. |
195 | P270/L2527 | The two economic statistics are nonparallel, so it is difficult to compare them. |
196 | P270/L2837 | This section would benefit from a case study under the key message. |
197 | P270/L28 | Insert “-” (revised text would say “land-use change”). |
198 | P270/L29 | Insert “ecological” so that revised text states “ecological communities.” |
199 | P270/L32 | It is unclear what is meant by “behavioral mechanisms.” |
200 | P270/L33 | It is unclear what is meant by “specific traits.” |
201 | P271/L3 | Clarify: “major outbreaks” of what? |
202 | P271/L5-7 | It would be useful to provide an example of how novel species are making the noted changes. |
203 | P271/L9 | This sentence seems out of place. |
204 | P271/L1323 | These two sentences make no sense and do not follow each other. |
205 | P271/L24 | Explain “advanced modeling techniques.” |
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206 | P271/L28 | Monitoring should be included as a shortcoming and critical need. |
207 | P271/L29 | It is unclear what “under” means. |
208 | P271/L36 | Insert space between “variation” and “(Jeong.” |
209 | P272/L3 | It is unclear why there is a long list of citations here. |
210 | P272/L5 | What is the demonstrated “uniquity of local adaptation” that is referred to? This is important and more detail should be provided. |
211 | P272/L8 | What is the year of the publication? |
212 | P272/L8 | Explain the two case studies. |
213 | P272/L10 | For the phrase, “involved changes in the timing of migration,” what time period is being discussed? |
214 | P272/L13 | The use of the term “novel” is used differently here than the rest of the text-here it refers to invaded areas. The term should be used consistently, or clearly defined when used differently. |
215 | P272/L13 | Provide an example of how available methods have been used to estimate risk. |
216 | P272/L14 | What are the emerging technologies noted here? |
217 | P272/L17 | Define “novel sectors and livelihoods.” |
218 | P272/L21 | Provide an example of how novel ecosystem transitions may result. The paleoecological literature might be helpful in this regard. |
219 | P272/L28 | It is unclear how the references are related to the sentence. |
220 | P272/L36 | This text repeats line 20-24 but with different references. |
221 | P273/L18 | There are no case studies to demonstrate how well natural resource management and adaptation strategies are working now or need to be refined in order to work better. |
222 | P273/L2728 | Define “seed sourcing” and “assisted migration” for a general audience. |
223 | P273/L3132 | No case studies are provided in the text to support this statement. |
224 | P273/L3235 | The statement would be strengthened with some examples. |
225 | P274/L3 | Vermont grassland systems are human-created landscapes. What is their value for biodiversity or conservation? Describe the likely phenological shifts related to climate change. |
226 | P274/L5 | Replace “has” with “have.” |
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227 | P274/L1517 | This reference to resistance/resilience is not well discussed in the key message section and should be clarified. How is resistance/resilience with respect to climate change defined and what are the compromises posed by invasive species? |
228 | P274/L2023 | This long list of citation needs some examples in order for the reader to understand the state of uncertainty and the potential for large changes in this regard. |
229 | P274/L25 | What is the reference to “recent” here? Some of the citations go back to before the NCA3, so they are not new in relation to the development of this draft fourth assessment. |
230 | P274/L35 | Plans for state and public-private partnerships should be discussed. |
231 | P275/L14 | It is unclear why is the word “could” is used here. |
9: OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES
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232 | P332/L1920 | A reference and some elaboration is needed on the statement that ocean acidification or low oxygen events can lead to technological adaptation. |
233 | P334/L5 | The population and percentage value listed differ slightly from that provided in the draft NCA4 Chapter 8. The chapters should report the information using the same values for consistency. |
234 | P334/L2537 | Why are no new references on ocean acidification since the NCA3 cited? The discussion is basic information, rather than new data on the status or trends. |
235 | P335/L7-10 | A reference is needed for the “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico. |
236 | P336/L4 | Burrows et al. 2014 would also be an appropriate reference to include here. Burrows, M. T., et al. (2014), Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity, Nature, 507(7493), 492-495, doi:10.1038/nature12976. |
10: AGRICULTURE AND RURAL COMMUNITIES
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237 | P373/L27-P375/L5 | Adaptation through land-use change is acknowledged as an option (page 375, line 5), but not addressed with any specific examples. Consider |
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including one or more of the following instances where more detail or examples could be helpful: (1) page 375, where the need for adaptation in the long run should be more strongly stated (Pugh et al., 2016), (2) page 373, line 27 and page 374, line 1, the amount of cropland in 2012 was down substantially from the 1950s (Brown et al., 2005) in response to change markets, technology, and policy. Less productive areas that have been abandoned could be brought back into production as an adaptation measure, though new ownership and land-use/livelihood patterns may reduce the capacity for reversion to agriculture as patterns of productivity change. Loss of cropland to urbanization, for example, limits reversion to cropland. (3) Paragraph beginning on page 375, line 16, paragraph addresses adaptation by a variety of means, but not by land-use change. Retirement of agricultural land or conversion to pasture at the productivity margins is a form of adaptation that has been happening over centuries. As noted above, it may be the key form of adaptation necessary in the long run. This will have significant effects on rural communities (both those where cropping declines and those where it increases). Evidence from econometric studies could be included, such as Burke and Emerick (2016), Feng et al. (2015), and Burke and Emerick (2016) (cited in draft chapter). (4) Address bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture as mitigation options and the additional interconnected stresses a massive scale up in bioenergy for mitigation would likely cause. See new citations at the end of the line comments for this chapter. | ||
238 | P373/L1216 | Remove “Food service, eating and drinking places,” “Food and beverage stores,” and “Textile, apparel, and leather manufacturing” from Figure 10.1. Their magnitude and distant relevance to the chapter (i.e., these are largely urban enterprises) distract from the message. |
239 | P374/L6-11 | It is true and well-documented that agriculture has become more efficient over the last few decades. However, consider following up the statement about reducing agricultural and environmental footprint with a comment about some of the remaining major environmental footprint issues to be addressed (e.g., eutrophication in Great Lakes and the Gulf of Mexico). |
240 | P375/L16-P376/L9 | The comment about the effectiveness of existing adaptation strategies given continued productivity growth does not consider the possibility that growth could have been much faster with even better adaptation. Given the concurrent trends of continuous equipment/genetic improvements, which were not designed as climate mitigation strategies, it is probably not safe to assume from the last couple of decades of increasing productivity that the sector is particularly skilled at climate change adaptation already. |
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241 | P375L13-15 | Challenges to food security should acknowledge changing diets along with population growth as drivers of this challenge. |
242 | P376/L6-9 | Research needs are referenced here, but few other places in the chapter. It would be highly valuable to comment more systematically on views of what the key research challenges are (related to this chapter’s scope) in the next few years, as appropriate for inclusion in this draft report. |
243 | P376/L35-P377/L5 | Mention of increasing irrigation as possible adaptation should reference observed increases, while also acknowledging the importance of water resource limitations in the future, as the text does. Data from Brown et al. 2014 could give a sense of scale. Also, acknowledge the regional variability of resource limitations (some basins are in much better or worse shape than others). |
244 | P377/L27-P378/L7 | Consider adding a comment on yield quality in addition to quantity, e.g., nutritional quality of crops under climate change scenarios. This may qualify as an emerging topic to watch. The draft NCA4 Chapter 23 cites Myers et al. 2017 on this. |
245 | P377/L2931 | “The demand for higher crop productivity under climate change has contributed to advancements in crop genetics in recent years.” Do the provided references support this? Robust crop breeding programs certainly are a mechanism for continually adjusting crop genetics to recent weather conditions and thereby ought to help agriculture progressively adjust to some types of climate change. In some cases, breeding programs have more directly targeted traits that help with drought resilience, etc., as noted in the text. But that is different than climate change adaptation being a direct motivator of recent crop genetic advancements. |
246 | P377/L1-5 | This statement is probably true without climate change also-recharge is not keeping up with withdrawals in a lot of places. Climate change might accelerate this, but the chapter needs to recognize the baseline. |
247 | P378/L20-P379/L6 | There may be somewhat of an overemphasis of the chapter text on irrigation as measured by the amount of text in the chapter devoted to this relative to U.S. acreage percentage using irrigation. Maybe it is an appropriate ratio based on economic importance? If so, the authors could state the outsized economic importance of irrigated acres. Either way, it is not clear that it is appropriate to have the sole case study box in this section to be about groundwater-fed irrigation of High Plains row crops. |
248 | P378/L20-P379/L6 | “[T]he Ogallala aquifer is a nonrenewable resource.” This requires more qualification, as there is a major difference in conditions from north to south across the aquifer. Groundwater recharge rates in the northern portion are quite high and approximately capable of sustaining current |
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irrigation rates (although river flows have suffered). As recent supporting evidence, groundwater levels in Nebraska recovered well following the record drawdowns during the 2012 drought year. In contrast, the central and southern portions have low recharge and should mostly be considered non-renewable resources. | ||
249 | P378/L8-9 | Define “climate-smart agriculture” and reference the origin of this term. |
250 | P381/L3338 | Clarification is needed in the statement about migration of the feeding industry. Is the expectation that industry in the southern Great Plains and Atlantic coastal plain will contract towards the northern Great Plains and upper midwest? Is there a reference describing the current trend? |
251 | P381/L25 | “Similar arguments” is too vague of a reference. To what arguments does it refer? |
252 | P382/L2139 | The nutrient loss pathway discussion focuses on erosion, but leaching (with or without tile drains) is another major loss pathway. The word leaching does not appear in the chapter. Relatedly, the combination of warmer springtime soils and increased rainfall intensity would seem to have the potential to increase nitrogen leaching under U.S. row crops, potentially reversing a trend of increasing nitrogen use efficiency over time in the sector. The cited Rosenzweig et al. 2014 paper mentions nitrogen losses as potentially exacerbating yield reductions. Pesticide leaching is also a risk. Consider adding comments on these mechanisms. A related point is that agronomic management practice shifts that are designed to mitigate climate impacts could also unintentionally exacerbate downstream impacts, for example, adding more fertilizers to insure against the yield losses described by the Rosenzweig et al. 2014 citation included in the draft NCA4, could potentially add to waterway discharges if they are not coupled with precision application technologies or similar. |
253 | P383/L5 | “[S]uch declarations” are not defined. A reference is provided in the traceable accounts (see the reference to “billion dollar natural disasters” on page 390, line 1), but it is unclear if they are referring to the same thing. More explanation is needed. |
254 | P383/L4-8 | This paragraph seems out of scope since it is not focusing on agricultural and rural communities. |
255 | P384/L23 | This is confusing wording. Change to “are less likely to exist and more loosely enforced.” |
256 | P385/L38 | “TPF” should be “TFP.” |
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257 | P386/L8-14 | Is the moisture/fire relationship for the period 1600-1800 safely applicable to the 2000s given all of the land use and land cover differences? |
258 | P386/L8-14 | Evidence for the fire prevalence impact on agriculture and how economically impactful it is should be added. |
259 | P386/L8-14 | The cited Margolis et al. 2017 is locally focused on northern New Mexico. Additional references to support the statement more broadly would be beneficial. |
260 | P386/L16 | Dai and Zhao 2017 may have found positive trends in drought indices (not negative, as stated). It is suggested that the authors revisit this literature and confirm/correct. |
261 | P387/L27-P388/L14 | Consider separating and making explicit the main types of research evidence about climate change impacts on crops. For example, (1) observational field studies, (2) experimental field studies, and (3) modeling studies. Also consider citing by name an example from each, such as the cited Hatfield et al. 2017 and several Lobell studies for (1), free air carbon dioxide experiment (FACE) studies for (2), and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AGMIP) for (3). |
262 | P390/L7-13 | This section justifies comments on mitigation capabilities but not on the impacts themselves. |
263 | P402/L7-10 | This reference is used four times in the chapter and is a link to a nontechnical overview. Reference to the full work should be included. |
Suggested References
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12: TRANSPORTATION
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264 | P451/L1 | It would be more appropriate to say that transportation is “A” not “THE” backbone, along with communications and energy. |
265 | P451/L19 | The transportation system is “INTERdependent with” other systems, not just dependent on. |
266 | P452/L5 | The notion of “a new transportation paradigm” is raised, but is not defined. Do these new approaches (transit-oriented development (TOD), autonomous vehicles, and shared mobility) actually constitute a new paradigm? |
267 | P452/L34 | The NCA4 authors should check on whether the state of the science indicates that there is too much uncertainty in forecasts about the levels of the Great Lakes to say that lower levels WILL limit boat traffic. |
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268 | P456/L1-3 | This is a theoretical statement about heat impacts. This is a well-known process to be sure, but it would be strengthened with empirical observations of the effect. |
269 | P460/L9 | Examples of resiliency measures that have or could be taken should be provided. This is not obvious from the text. |
270 | P468/L28 | “[C]omprise” should be “compromise.” |
271 | P468/L37 | It would be useful to relate the physical effect of buckling at >90 degrees to the number of projects days under the scenarios. |
272 | P470/L1115 | Empirical and modeling evidence seems to be slim for this “high confidence.” Presumably, high confidence could be based on engineering studies, but it would be stronger with observations and models. |
273 | P470/L32 | This statement about low-income people being less likely to evacuate comes from another assessment report. The primary evidence should be provided. |
274 | P471/L1 | The meaning of “broad constituencies in suburban areas” is vague and requires clarification. |
275 | P471/L9-10 | Why give examples of Colorado and Iowa? In what way are they representative? |
15: TRIBAL AND INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES
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276 | P548/L2633 | The introduction in general, and this paragraph in particular, would benefit from references to support these statements. If this initial section is intended as an overview summary rather than an introduction, a heading should be added to indicate this. It is an opportunity to inform the general readership of the NCA4 about publications that document the important points raised in the introduction. For example, literature that documents increased rates of mood and anxiety disorders is needed. This statement is repeated in the “results” (draft NCA4 page 555, lines 32-34). Do the NCA4 authors intend this to be a finding of the assessment (in which case, page 555 and the associated key message is a good place to present it) or as background (in which case, the introduction would be the better place)? More general statements have been well documented in the literature, which should be cited in the introduction. |
277 | P548/L3437 | See previous comment #274. Additional references that would allow readers to further explore the content of this paragraph are needed. |
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278 | P552/L3-7 | Key Message 1 is important. However, with a superficial reading, it would seem to apply to non-tribal as well as tribal entities. The logic would be more compelling if the chapter explained why these vulnerabilities are often greater for tribal than for non-tribal entities. Text that references Figure 15.2 might be an appropriate place to make these explanations. Box 15.1 does a good job of providing these types of explanations with respect to social determinants of indigenous health. |
279 | P555/L6 | Replace “that can that” with “that can.” |
280 | P555/L38-P556/L3 | This section needs citations and more thorough explanation. |
281 | P556/L4-11 | This paragraph does a good job of providing citations for each key statement. |
282 | P558/L2-7 | This is an excellent example of the types of statistics that are valuable to present in the report. |
283 | P559/L5-7 | The NCA4 authors should be a bit more explicit about these issues. It seems like an important point, but it is so general that it does not provide a lot of insight. Is this because the governance issues are so heterogeneous from place to place that one cannot generalize, i.e., that greater future assessment will be necessary to make progress, or is it that the authors chose not to provide the details? |
284 | P547-563 | General comment: The chapter is clearly written and addresses the important climate change impacts on indigenous peoples in a rigorous fashion. In some instances, the same points are made in the introduction and results, making it unclear which aspects are part of this assessment and which are general background. The inclination is to suggest general background papers be cited in the introduction and that the results focus on evaluation of papers that bring new information to this assessment. See also comment #274. |
285 | P550/L7 | The term “federally recognized Tribes” appears without definition or characterization of important distinctions regarding legal/policy standing and political relationships with other groups of indigenous peoples, non-federally recognized tribes, state recognized tribes, and other groups of self-recognized peoples. It is recommended that the term be defined. |
286 | P550/L9 | This characterization of the trust responsibility is misleading. The trust responsibility has two major components: (1) fiduciary obligations of the U.S. as trustee for the management of the Indian estate, the funds and resources entrusted to its care; and (2) the duty to support tribal self-determination and role in the American system of governance. What is described as “trust responsibility” is in fact a policy recognition that federally recognized tribes are political sovereigns that are to be |
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treated in accordance with protocols appropriate for government-to-government relations. There are several statutes and policies that describe responsibilities for interacting with tribal governments, including consultation on matters that affect their rights and interests. | ||
287 | P550/L1522 | Consider relocating this paragraph to the start of the Executive Summary. |
288 | P551/L1314 | Figure 15.1 does not reflect “models of adaptation,” but rather indicates locations of tribal involvement in climate change initiatives. |
289 | P551/Figure 15.1 | Adaptation is not well covered in the web links provided in this figure. The first web link simply refers back to this draft NCA4 chapter; the second and third web links describe climate impacts but say relatively little about ongoing adaptation activities. |
290 | P551/L16 | The word “cumulatively” should be “collectively.” |
291 | P551/L1920 | It is recommended that the last sentence be deleted because it serves little substantive purpose. Although islands are depicted in Figure 15.1, the chapter text does not substantively discuss many of the unique issues faced by indigenous peoples in these locations. |
292 | P552/L15 | Change “comprise” to “contain.” |
293 | P552/L15 | The validity of this statement is questioned here. No source for this statistic is presented. Most tribal hatcheries do not produce fish that are not listed under the ESA. |
294 | P553/L7 | Authors should consider citing Parsons et al. 2017. Parsons, M., C. Brown, J. Nalau, and K. Fisher (2017), Assessing adaptive capacity and adaptation: insights from Samoan tourism operators, Climate and Development, 1-20, doi:10.1080/17565529.2017.1410082. |
295 | P553/L14 | There are not just regulatory responses and impacts on arts and crafts income. Failure to enforce laws and regulations (e.g., clean air and water, energy efficiency), conflicting missions among fragmented agencies, and failure to allow for traditional uses and management practices, etc. all affect availability (access, abundance, and productivity) of many resources for food security, subsistence, medicines, and commercial and ceremonial use. |
296 | P553/L2330 | The pervasive role of federal agencies and persistent remnants of paternalistic policies are embodied in the manuals, rules, and regulations. These policies and procedures that are relied upon to administer fiduciary trust responsibilities are major barriers to adaption and development of tribal resources/economies. See Energy Act, NIFRMA, Indian Ag Act, etc. Additionally, note persistent poverty, |
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lack of infrastructure, and isolation (e.g., 14% lack access to electricity [Energy Information Administration], and only a small percentage have access to broadband Internet). | ||
297 | P555/L5 | This discussion would benefit from references to environmental/climate justice to address disproportionate distribution of impacts to the economically disadvantaged and populations of color. |
298 | P555/L19 | The word “undermine” should be changed to “alter.” These relationships are not limited to humans and animals, but to all aspects of the environment, plants, water, soils, air, etc. |
299 | P555/L2331 | An aspect of climate change which is important, but not directly covered, involves scarcity of resources and competition, not just among indigenous peoples’ communities, but also as a result of recreational and commercial use of these resources by a growing population. Additionally, trespassing on tribal lands, environmental degradation, and some reserved rights to areas off reservation are also affected. |
300 | P556/L11 | Impacts also accrue to traditions and practices, not just to sacred sites. |
301 | P556/L27 | The discussion of adaptation is overly broad. Consideration should be given to the utility of distinguishing between different types of adaptation experienced by indigenous peoples. Certainly the ability to adapt to changing natural environments over millenia of pre-European contact, when indigenous communities were much more mobile within ancestral territories, differs markedly from the trauma of populations devastated by disease and forced adaptation to changes in natural and political environments resulting from the imposition of Western political, legal, and economic systems of property ownership, dispossession, relocation, and assimilation policies. These challenges differ markedly from those being faced today by indigenous peoples as they strive to contend with the necessity to deal with the pace and intensity of adaptation, preparation, and mitigation measures needed to respond to climate change. The ability of indigenous peoples to anticipate and respond to climate change is affected by economic, political, and legal considerations that severely constrain their abilities to consider and undertake alternative actions. |
302 | P556/L36 | Revise text to say “multi-generational accumulation and transfer of knowledge.” |
303 | P557/L25 | It is recommended that “within recognized areas where reserved hunting, fishing, gathering, and trapping rights can be exercised” be added. |
304 | P557/L25 | A major impact that is not mentioned is reduced abundance and productivity due to environmental degradation and development that affect ecological processes. |
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305 | P557/L38 | Should section 1110 of the Sandy Recovery Improvement Act or Stafford Act be referenced? |
306 | P558/L2 | “President” should be capitalized. |
307 | P558/L2025 & P559/L1728 | The relevance of forced relocation due to climate change should be clarified. Rather than “frameworks”—whatever those might be—three larger problems are apparent: (1) the difficulty of maintaining community/cultural continuity of place and environment for communities under relocation; (2) the lack of resources to support physical relocation, including aspects of governance—taxation, regulation, etc.; and (3) the impacts on the communities and environments receiving relocated communities. |
21: MIDWEST
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308 | P844/L8-15 | The chapter should address (at least major categories of) adaptation in the agricultural sector. |
309 | P850/L1 | The impacts of transitions from an extreme drought year to an extreme flood year are mentioned, but no information is provided on whether this is expected in the future. Will there be more, fewer, the same, or is it unknown? If it is unknown, it seems unnecessary to mention the impact. |
310 | P851/L6-7 | It would be useful to comment on increasing irrigation use in some parts of the region. |
311 | P857/L1515 | Climate factors interact with one another and they interact with land use land cover patterns. This should be noted. |
312 | P863/L29-P864/L1 | The implication is that decreasing lake levels can be expected. The evidence is not clear on this. Of course, if they do decrease, there will be increasing shipping costs. It would be more appropriate to say something about the science of whether or not we can expect them to decrease. Reduced ice cover is more clear. |
313 | P887/L1920 | Provide references for the following claim: “It is clear, however, that flood frequency on major rivers in the Midwest has increased in recent decades.” |
22: NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
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314 | P916/L15 | “[G]eographical migration of agricultural practices” seems like jargon. Clarification on what exactly this means is needed. |
315 | P917/L12 | The Northern Great Plains extends to Wyoming and Montana and significantly wetter conditions are not forecasted for the western parts of these states. |
316 | P919/L1-7 | It would be helpful to show other basic climate projections for the region (seasonal/annual temperature, seasonal/annual precipitation projections). |
317 | P921/L2 | These three geographic features should be shown on a map and there should be some identification beyond these features. The three features are also not clearly identified in the text (Red River Valley, Upper Missouri River Basin, and the third being the mountains of Wyoming and Montana?). |
318 | P921/L11 | Define “alpine water dynamics.” Is this precipitation in headwater systems? |
319 | P921/L18 | This is a very sparsely populated region. |
320 | P921/L1823 | The NCA4 authors should mention dryland wheat production in Montana. The reference to arid to semiarid climate of this region requires some climate information. |
321 | P921/L21 | Delete “.” |
322 | P921/L22 | It is unclear what is meant by the “western portion of the region,” but it is managed for agriculture, forestry, grazing, and recreation. |
323 | P921/L35 | Insert “-” such that revised text says “long-term.” |
324 | P922/L12 | The statement that it is among the most arid in the Nation should be supported with some precipitation data and an identification of what area is referred to specifically. |
325 | P922/L24 | Delete “a” so that text reads, “representing new and unprecedented.” |
326 | P922/L25 | Is this a reference specifically to Glacier National Park? |
327 | P922/L35 | Add Montana to the list. |
328 | P924/L11 | In Figure 22.2, an explanation is needed for why Snow Water Equivalent for Average March is used instead of the usual April 1 Snow Water Equivalent. |
329 | P925/L5 | Explain “high degree of variability.” Does this mean annual, seasonal, or spatial? Not only is the variability high, but the uncertainty is also high. |
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330 | P925/L8-9 | Delete “in the future.” |
331 | P925/L15 | These projections also apply to the northwestern portion (i.e., northern Montana). |
332 | P925/L17 | Replace “which” with “and projected changes.” |
333 | P925/L19 | In addition to agriculture and energy production, the list should be expanded to include human health, streamflow and temperatures, snow melt, fires, etc. |
334 | P925/L24 | Nebraska has more humid-continental climate than where? Does this statement apply year-round or to seasonal climate conditions? |
335 | P925/L2526 | Does this statement about reservoir and groundwater storage apply everywhere in the region or only in the eastern part? |
336 | P927/L7 | It is unclear what is meant by “essential vegetation heterogeneity.” |
337 | P927/L19 | A more detailed discussion of producer decision-making would be helpful, since climate change is only one factor. Refer to Whitlock et al. 2017 provided in the references at the end of this chapter review and the draft NCA4 Chapter 5 for a start. |
338 | P927/L28 | Provide information about summer precipitation. |
339 | P927/L28 | This paragraph should also cite the increase in extreme precipitation events. For example, a study of hail: Brimelow et al. 2017. Brimelow, J. C., W. R. Burrows, and J. M. Hanesiak (2017), The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change, Nature Climate Change, 7(7), 516-522, doi:10.1038/nclimate3321. |
340 | P927/L30 | Insert “(.” |
341 | P927/L34-P928/L17 | These projections do not apply to the entire Northern Great Plains region, which extends to western Montana. The authors need to be geographically specific. Item 1 should provide a season. Item 6 does not apply to the western region, where livestock will experience greater stress as a result of late-season drought and high temperatures. |
342 | P928/L29 | Consider changing “would” to “will.” |
343 | P928/L30 | Define “sustainability” in this case, or replace with “resilience.” |
344 | P929/L19 | Explain the Collaborative Adaptive Rangeland Management experiment and how it relates to The Nature Conservancy’s Matador Ranch. |
345 | P929/L25 | The phrase: “under each which were used” is awkward and should be reworded. |
346 | P930/L8 | To clarify, $4.9 billion was spent in the Northern Great Plains states? |
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347 | P930/L28 | More regional citations that should be reviewed/cited include: Al-Chokhachy, R., D. Schmetterling, C. Clancy, P. Saffel, R. Kovach, L. Nyce, B. Liermann, W. Fredenberg, and R. Pierce (2016), Are brown trout replacing or displacing bull trout populations in a changing climate?, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 73(9), 1395-1404, doi:10.1139/cjfas-2015-0293. Giersch, J. J., S. Hotaling, R. P. Kovach, L. A. Jones, and C. C. Muhlfeld (2017), Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects, Global Change Biology, 23(7), 2577-2589, doi:10.1111/gcb.13565. Muhlfeld, C. C., R. P. Kovach, L. A. Jones, R. Al-Chokhachy, M. C. Boyer, R. F. Leary, W. H. Lowe, G. Luikart, and F. W. Allendorf (2014), Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change, Nature Climate Change, 4(7), 620-624, doi:10.1038/nclimate2252. |
348 | P930/L29 | This line needs a citation to support the content. |
349 | P931/L10 | Insert “the” so the text reads, “last day of the snow.” Do not capitalize spring. |
350 | P932/L5-9 | Other initiatives should be mentioned such as the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (representing all federal agencies in the Greater Yellowstone Area) that has several climate-change related initiatives, and Crown of the Continent Partnership, which is similarly looking at climate change impacts on headwater streams. |
351 | P932/L22 | This should say “northern and eastern Montana.” |
352 | P933/L77 | Table 22.3 should include information from Montana, which represents about 30% of the prairie pothole region. |
353 | P936/L6 | Stating “things” is not very specific. It is suggested that this be changed to “initiatives” or “programs.” |
354 | P936/L8-19 | The authors should mention that the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in this region are coal-fired power plants and that Wyoming and North Dakota are the highest emitters of greenhouse gas per person in the nation. |
355 | P937/L8-12 | A description of Department of Energy (DOE) supported efforts for carbon capture and sequestration should be described. |
356 | P938/L7 | Why use “some” if they are “among.” Delete “some.” |
357 | P938/L13 | It is unclear what the difference is between climate and seasonality changes. Is this meant to say changes in annual and seasonal climate? |
358 | P938/L1821 | This sentence is poorly written. Rewrite for clarity and parallelism. Suggested edit: “changes in hydrology, phenology, availability of |
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traditional plant-based foods, bear migration and hibernation cycles, as well as the health of [whitebark?] pine? There is also a mismatch between traditional stories of past climate and current climate conditions.” | ||
359 | P938/L2225 | These are general statements (e.g., no salmon in this region), where more specific examples would be helpful. |
360 | P938/L24 | Delete “,”. |
361 | P938/L31 | State which language is quoted. |
362 | P938/L33 | There is a misspelling of the word “Because.” |
363 | P939/L3 | Replace “were” with “was.” |
364 | P939/L9 | Provide more specificity for the statement “changes to temperature and water cycles.” |
365 | P939/L10 | It is suggested that “increasing livestock stress” be added to the list. |
366 | P940/L6 | Provide more specificity for “projected to damage infrastructure.” What types of climate change, for what infrastructure, and where is this happening? |
367 | P940/L22 | Define “colonial/postcolonial.” |
368 | P940/L30 | There is a misspelling of the word “Dakota.” |
369 | P942/L9 | The term “South-central” should be in lower case, as in “south-central” or “south central.” |
370 | P942/L15 | Delete “,”. |
371 | P942/L24 | There should be no capitalization of the word “chokecherry.” |
372 | P942/L30 | There should be no capitalization of the word “olive.” |
373 | P943/L3-5 | For Figure 22.6’s caption, there should be no capitalization of the word “olive.” |
374 | P943/L3-5 | This inset is very hard to evaluate. What is the current distribution of Russian olives and what do the colors and the scale mean? The warm colors may suggest that there is a projected decrease in Russian olives to many readers. |
375 | P945/L10 | Explain why there are no authors from Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota or Wyoming. This does not seem like appropriate representation for a regional assessment and this will reduce its creditability among stakeholders. |
376 | P945/L36 | Replace “montane west” with “western mountains.” |
377 | P946/L10 | In addition to year-to-year variability, there is increased seasonal variability. See the draft NCA4 Chapter 2 and the Montana Climate |
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Assessment (Whitlock et al. 2017 in the reference list at the end of this chapter’s line comments). | ||
378 | P946/L29 | Specificity is needed as not all parts of the region will show an increase in productivity. |
379 | P946/L30 | What weeds in particular are competitive? Greater specificity is needed. |
380 | P946/L36 | It would be helpful for a call-out of these particular studies, especially those studies specific to the Northern Great Plains. |
381 | P947/L15 | The reference to “geographical migration of agricultural practices and enterprises” is part of Key Message 2, but it is not discussed. |
382 | P947/L3637 | This sentence is awkward and needs greater clarity. |
383 | P948/L5-6 | Agricultural land-use change is not a function of climate change. A more nuanced discussion of this point and the factors that shape land-use decisions is needed. |
384 | P948/L14 | What is more important for skiing is that climate change will shorten the ski season, which has economic consequences for the skiing industry. |
385 | P948/L18 | This list should mention the impacts affecting cold-water fisheries, e.g., more invasive species, warmer water temperatures, and lower flow. |
386 | P948/L24 | In addition to disease, upriver movement of warm-water fish and displacement of cold-water species should be mentioned. |
387 | P949/L10 | There are not only climate-induced changes to agricultural land-use, but also changes to the wetlands themselves through late-season drying, early snowmelt, etc. |
388 | P949/L16 | Replace “is” with “are.” |
389 | P950/L10 | Specific examples, or at least references, are needed here. |
390 | P950/L22 | This is the first reference to the Columbia River Basin, which represents a very small part of the Northern Great Plains region. |
391 | P950/L2728 | This sentence about biofuel production is very cryptic. What other biofuels are used? Specify some of the climate change impacts. |
392 | P951/L32 | It would be helpful to list state-level climate assessments for additional information. |
Chapter 22-Suggested References
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23: SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
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393 | P966/L30 | Brimelow et al. 2017 should be cited for hail threat. Brimelow, J. C., W. R. Burrows, and J. M. Hanesiak (2017), The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change, Nature Climate Change, 7(7), 516-522, doi:10.1038/nclimate3321. |
394 | P970/L33-P971/L4 | Add references to statements in the last two paragraphs of the box regarding changes to projected frequencies and intensities. |
395 | P971/L7 | The time span for this observation needs to be stated. |
396 | P973/L2238 | The paragraph on the drought in 2011-2015 and its resulting economic impacts is an interesting one, but the text is not currently clear about |
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what the intended takeaways are: (a) an indicator of the kinds of things we expect to increase in frequency in the future with climate change, (b) an episode that is attributable to climate change, or (c) other? Please specify. Also, consider this as a potentially suitable case study box. | ||
397 | P973/L28 | Replace “coal plant” with “coal-fired power plant.” |
398 | P974/L2-P975/L4 | The main point of this box is not clear. Is this intended to just point out an example where climate early warning information exists? It would be a more powerful example if a successful utilization of this information by a stakeholder could be described. |
399 | P977/L18 | Insert “that” so the text reads, “role that climate.” |
400 | P978/L34 | The Oklahoma Mesonet is referenced here. In general, the three states comprising this region have very good state/local monitoring systems, which, in some ways, have been a model for other regions. Consider mentioning climate monitoring investments in the region in the context of either trend identification or adaptive capacity-building. |
401 | P979/L6 | Replace “Nation” with “the U.S.” |
402 | P980/L2132 | The Box 23.4 discussion on the El Paso desalination plant is quite limited and its takeaways are not clear. How much are costs reduced relative to seawater desalination given the brackish waters? Also, consider revising the box title since the desalination plant is being discussed as one mechanism in a broader suite of methodologies for achieving water security. |
403 | P982/L1215 | Whooping cranes vulnerabilities being used as an example of species range changes should be referenced in the draft NCA4 Ecosystems chapter (Chapter 7) if discussed here. |
404 | P983/L25 | Where is the “Texas bay” located? Is this same as the Texas Gulf Coast? |
405 | P983/L31 | The words “ground water” should be one word: “groundwater.” |
406 | P988/L10 | It is not clear how Phytophthora is influenced by an increase in invasive species. Is this a non-native fungus? |
407 | P991/L2930 | It would be helpful to include more information on the types of individuals that attend the engagement workshop and how they engaged in the process. |
408 | P991/L38 | The difference between “doctors, academicians, researchers and scientists” is not clear. Please clarify. Are they medical doctors? Are the researchers from federal and state agencies? |
409 | P994/L7-8 | The description of confidence and likelihood for Key Message 3 makes the point that habitat created by invasive species due to climate changes has improved populations of other species. This may be in reference to |
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increased invasive species following flooding and the increase in detrimental fungal species, but it is not entirely clear. This is mentioned only on page 988, lines 8-12, but the point is not clearly developed and seemed like a minor observation. | ||
410 | P994/L2226 | The description of evidence base for Key Message 4 makes reference to Chapter 7 on the point of increased microbial and chemical contamination of crops and water in agricultural environments. That message is not currently clear in Chapter 7. |
411 | P994/L7-8 | Insert “including fungi” at the end of the sentence. |
24: NORTHWEST
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412 | P1017/L2333 | Also cite consequences of temperature/range shifts for fisheries (not all are negative—some fish species are/will enter fishing areas where they did not previously occur). See references in the draft NCA4 Chapter 9 and elsewhere. |
413 | P1018/L10 | Change “effect” to “affect.” |
414 | P1018/L1-7 | Include documented literature on range shift effects on fisheries/management (not just species), e.g., Ianelli et al. 2016 and other references in the draft NCA4 Chapter 9. |
415 | P1018/L1821 | Provide a citation for the good point on variation in adaptive capacity throughout the region. |
416 | P1025/L2021 | Cite Ianelli et al. 2016 and Seung and Ianelli 2016 in this chapter, which are referenced in the draft NCA4 Chapter 9). |
417 | P1026/L2829 | Cite mitigation and other co-benefits from climate-based species/wildlife management as another emerging area. |
418 | P1031/L1112 | The text should say “has reduced the impact of sea level rise for some areas in the Northwest.” |
419 | P1031/L21-P1032/L2 | Include hybrid “green and gray” infrastructure approaches as part of the emerging issues. |
25: SOUTHWEST
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420 | P1088/L810 | Mention why the significant technology sector in the region cares about climate change (or how climate change affects the sector). |
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421 | P1088/L1718 | Water supply varies not only with precipitation, but also with withdrawals/use, as mentioned in the preceding sentence. |
422 | P1092/L1920 | Regarding Oroville Dam spill risks, reduced water supply and maintenance required for aging infrastructure are two risks mentioned in the text. Another major spill risk is the risk to human lives/property/infrastructure from catastrophic failure. |
423 | P1092/L38 | Text should say “rather than being forced to use it immediately.” |
424 | P1094/L2-8 | The middle sentences on drought should be rephrased to focus on fire impacts. Start with “forests have dried,” driving wildfire increase, and then include an explanation of how droughts have contributed to forest drying. |
425 | P1094/L21 | Text should say “carbon, in California ecosystems.” |
426 | P1098/L3637 | Text should say “in naturally acidic upwellings.” |
427 | P1099/L3-4 | The text needs a citation for the economic risks of ocean acidification to the shellfish industry. |
428 | P1100/L8 | The legend should be consistent with the true color of the temperature line in Figure 25.4. It looks brown in the draft NCA4, but the caption states that it is black. |
429 | P1102/L213 | The paragraph starts with a discussion of how tribes are adapting; the paragraph ends with an example of how vulnerable they are to decreasing water supply. This text needs edits for internal consistency. Perhaps the two points could be merged with other paragraph(s). |
430 | P1103/L1415 | Briefly state the cause of the increased cost in shifting from hydroelectric to fossil fuels in California (see the cited Gleick, 2015 reference). |
431 | P1103/L3639 | This sentence needs editing for length and clarity. |
432 | P1104/L8 | Text should say “Energy production causes the.” |
433 | P1104/L1114 | This sentence needs editing for length and clarity. |
434 | P1104/L1415 | What economic damages would carbon emission reductions cut and how? This needs a brief explanation. |
435 | P1114/L21 | A citation is needed for the portion of this sentence referring to the increase in flooding. This is the first mention of flooding related to this key message and is strangely stated as part of the documentation in the “drought” key message. More detail on this point can be found in the main text review of this draft NCA4 chapter. |
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436 | P1117/L12 | An incomplete sentence ends with “to diminishing.” |
Chapter 25 Suggested References
SUPPORT FOR KEY MESSAGE 5 |
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SUPPORT FOR KEY MESSAGE 7 |
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WEB-ACCESSIBLE ITEMS FOR URBAN CLIMATE ISSUES AND BARRIERS TO ADAPTATION |
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EXAMPLES OF RESOURCES FOR ADAPTATION AND PLANNING |
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SOURCES OF CLIMATE DATA |
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26: ALASKA
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437 | P1170/L3334 | There is clumsy wording of the text “qualitative … ecosystems” and is difficult to understand. This differs from many of the relatively simple definitions in the literature. |
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438 | P1170/L3739 | The range of adaptations that are underway, as stated in this sentence, are not described in the adaptation section of this chapter. |
439 | P1171/L2-6 | It is unclear how Figure 26.4 relates to the text that precedes or follows it. |
440 | P1172/L133 | Add citations to the introduction. |
441 | P1174/L8 | The text says “(c) same as (c),” but it should say “(d) same as (c).” |
442 | P1174/L29 | Do “coastal areas” refer to all coastal areas of the state, including southeastern Alaska? |
443 | P1177/L8 | Is it correct that fish feed on pteropods rather than pteropods feeding on fish? |
444 | P1179/L11 | The cited Mann et al. 2012 did not discuss shrubs. They talk about the conversion of conifer forests to deciduous vegetation (including shrublands and deciduous forests). They emphasize the importance of aspen forests (not shrublands) as a future state that will become more common. See also comment #447. |
445 | P1179/L18 | What about the effects of permafrost thaw on the water-quality impacts of large mines? |
446 | P1184/L24 | Change “quality” to “air quality.” |
447 | P1186/L3032 | The same sentence is repeated twice. |
448 | P1196/L2 | Is “Arctic ice sheet,” meant to be “sea ice”? Clarification is needed. |
449 | P1196/L34 | The conclusion by Mann et al. 2012 referred to changes from conifer to deciduous cover, not changes from forest cover to shrubs, as stated in this sentence (and in an earlier reference to the paper by Mann et al.). The statement that forests are changing to shrublands may be true, but the Mann et al. 2012 reference does not support this statement. See comment #442. |
450 | P1197/L6-8 | The sentence “Thermal … regions” seems to have words missing and is unclear. |
451 | P1201/L1-2 | There is a word missing from this sentence. |
Appendix 5: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
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452 | P1444/L3536 | A better topic sentence would be “Additional lines of evidence support the idea that the world is warming.” |
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453 | P1445/L7-9 | Because the FAQ focus is on how we know the Earth is warming and not why the Earth is warming, reference to human activities being responsible for the warming does not seem appropriate. |
454 | P1444/L16 | The link included on page 1444, line 16 should be more clearly noted as an external source. As currently written, it gives the impression that it links to Figures A5.1 and A5.2 in the draft NCA4. |
455 | P1451/L11 | The text needs a comma after “heat.” |
456 | P1451/L13 | Define the abbreviation GHG before using it (if this line is kept in the text). |
457 | P1453/L2 | The word lead “lead” should be changed to “leads” or “must lead.” |
458 | P1447/L17 | Insert the word “rapidly” so that it reads “use of coal, oil, and gas has rapidly changed the atmosphere.” |
459 | P1451/L15 | The word “similar” should be changed to “similarly,” because the physical mechanism is actually different (greenhouse versus greenhouse gases). Alternatively, the comparison could be omitted. |
460 | P1459/L13 | It would be appropriate to say “very strong regional effects in some areas.” |
461 | P1459/L1316 | This text is likely too technical for the intended audience and should be revised. |
462 | P1470/L14 | The text currently says “scientists compare data.” which could be revised to say “scientists evaluate data.” |
463 | P1471/L21 | Edit text to say “at a given location over periods of multiple years to decades.” |
464 | P1473/L21 | The word “arctic” should be capitalized. |
465 | P1475/L36 | Insert “noted above” so that the text says “scientific evidence noted above indicates that.” |
466 | P1476/L5 | Insert “human-caused” so that the text says “of human-caused global warming on these events.” |
467 | P1476/L12 | It is suggested that the words “the severity of” and “some” be added, so that the text reads “global warming has contributed to the severity of some individual weather and climate events.” |
468 | P1476/L15 | The text that says “we can model” is jargon. It is suggested that “model” be replaced with “simulate.” |
469 | P1477/L3 | Insert “human-caused” so that the text says “to detect the influence of human-caused global warming.” |
470 | P1477/L4 | Insert “events” so that the text states “and, to a lesser extent, heavy rainfall events, is better at present.” |
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471 | P1477/L7-8 | It is suggested that the text be changed to the following wording: “ability to attribute how much human-caused global warming contributes to specific weather and climate events.” |
472 | P1477/L12 | Insert “human-caused” so that the text says “link human-caused global warming to particular weather and.” |
473 | P1477/L15 | Insert “human-caused” so that the text says “while human-caused global warming contributed.” |
474 | P1477/L17 | Change the wording to: “activity, but human-caused global warming leads to.” |
475 | P1477/L33 | Clarification is needed here. A change in wording to: “exist, only that the data record is not long enough.” is suggested. |
476 | P1488 | The intermediate scenario referenced in Figure A5.29 should be consistently labeled throughout the report and FAQs. |
477 | P1488/L16 | The text should say “Sea level is expected to continue rising at an accelerating rate this century, increasing the frequency of nuisance flooding, as well as intensifying coastal.” |
Appendix 5-Suggested References
FAQ: WHY ARE SCIENTISTS SO CERTAIN THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF RECENT GLOBAL WARMING? |
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FAQ: WHAT ROLE DOES WATER VAPOR PLAY IN GLOBAL WARMING? |
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FAQ: WHAT IS THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON? |
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FAQ: HOW FAST ARE GLACIERS MELTING IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK? |
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FAQ: IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING U.S. WILDFIRES? |
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