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Critical Issues in Transportation 2019 (2018)

Chapter: Endnotes

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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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Suggested Citation:"Endnotes." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25314.
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endnotes 1. Sperling, D., E. van der Meer, and S. Pike. Vehicle Automation: Our Best Shot at a Transportation Do-Over? In Three Revolutions: Steering Automated, Shared, and Electric Vehicles to a Better Future. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2018. https://islandpress. org/books/three-revolutions. See also S. Olson (ed.). Autonomy on Land and Sea and in the Air and Space: Proceedings of a Forum, National Academy of Engineering, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2018. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25168. 2. Shaheen, S., H. Totte, and A. Stocker. Future of Mobility White Paper, 2018. https:// escholarship.org/uc/item/68g2h1qv. 3. Berg, N. The E-Commerce Revolution: Online Shopping Boom Testing Infrastructure’s Limits. InTransition Magazine, 2016. http://intransitionmag.org/Winter_2016/ ecommerce-revolution.aspx. 4. Montgomery, W.D. Public and Private Benefits of Autonomous Vehicles, 2018. https:// avworkforce.secureenergy.org/wp-content/ uploads/2018/06/W.-David-Montgomery- Report-June-2018.pdf. 5. This paragraph draws heavily from Sperling, D., et al. Three Revolutions: Steering Automated, Shared, and Electric Vehicles to a Better Future. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2018. https://islandpress.org/books/ three-revolutions. See also Schaller, B. The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, 2018. http:// www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/ automobility.htm. See also World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group. Reshaping Urban Mobility with Autonomous Vehicles: Lessons from the City of Boston, 2018. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/ WEF_Reshaping_Urban_Mobility_with_ Autonomous_Vehicles_2018.pdf. 6. Sperling et al., 2018. 7. Sperling et al., 2018. 8. Schaller, B. The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, 2018. http://www.schallerconsult.com/ rideservices/automobility.htm. See also Henao, A., and W. Marshall. The Impact of Ride-Hailing on Vehicle Miles Traveled. Transportation, Springer. Published online September 20, 2018. http://link- springer-com-443.webvpn.jxutcm.edu.cn/ article/10.1007%2Fs11116-018-9923-2. 9. U.S. Department of Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems, Connected Vehicles, ITS Research 2015-2019. https://www.its.dot. gov/research_areas/connected_vehicle.htm. 10. Forsgren, K.E., et al. The Road Ahead for Automated Vehicles. S&P Global Ratings, 2018. https://www.ibtta.org/sites/default/ files/documents/SP%20Global%20 Ratings%20-%20Road%20Ahead%20For%20 Autonomous%20Vehicles-Enhanced%20May- 14-2018.pdf. 11. Kalra, N., and D. Groves. The Enemy of the Good: Estimating the Cost of Waiting for Nearly Perfect Automated Vehicles. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2017. https:// www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/ RR2150.html. See also Fraade-Blanar, L., et al. Measuring Automated Vehicle Safety: Forging a Framework. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2018. https://www.rand.org/ pubs/research_reports/RR2662.html. 12. Lewis, P. Point/Counterpoint: 5G or DSRC for Connected Vehicle Technology, Eno Transportation Weekly, September 2018. https://www.enotrans.org/article/point- counterpoint-5g-or-dsrc-for-connected-vehicle- technology. 13. Committee for Review of Innovative Urban Mobility Services. Special Report 319: Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Transportation Services. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2016. http://www.trb.org/ Publications/Blurbs/173511.aspx. 14. Feigon, S., and C. Murphey. Broadening the Understanding of the Interplay Among Public Transit, Shared Mobility, and Personal Automobiles. Transit Cooperative Research Program, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2018. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/24996. 15. Schaller, 2018, Henao and Marshall, 2018. 16. Committee for Review of Innovative Urban Mobility Services, 2016. 17. Committee for Review of Innovative Urban Mobility Services, 2016, pp. 38–59. See also Schaller, B. Second Chances: Regulation and Deregulation of Taxi and For-Hire Ride Services, TR News 315, May–June 2018. http:// www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/177762.aspx. 18. Clearly the federal government has priority, but states have roles to play as well. See Hedlund, J. Autonomous Vehicles Meet Human Drivers: Traffic Safety Issues for States, Governors Highway Safety Association. https://www. ghsa.org/sites/default/files/2017-01/AV%20 2017%20-%20FINAL.pdf. 19. For an overview of the challenges of safety assurance of complex software and electronic sensors, see Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration. The Safety Promise and Challenge of Automotive Electronics: Insights from Unintended Acceleration. National Academies of Sciences, critical issues in transportation 2019 29

Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Chapter Three, 2012. http:// www.trb.org/main/blurbs/166563.aspx. 20. Smith, B.W. Automated Driving and Product Liability. Michigan State Law Review, Vol. 1, 2017. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ papers.cfm?abstract_id=2923240. See also Glancy, D.J., R.W. Peterson, and K.F. Graham. NCHRP Legal Research Digest 69: A Look at the Legal Environment for Driverless Vehicles. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2016. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/23453. 21. Shaheen, S. Shared Mobility: The Potential of Ride Hailing and Pooling, in Sperling et al., 2018. 22. Chapin, T., et al. Envisioning Florida’s Future: Transportation and Land Use in an Automated Vehicle World. Florida State University, 2016. https://fpdl.coss.fsu.edu/sites/g/files/ imported/storage/original/application/ abfcc477779d0bc0ea825c8011011939.pdf. 23. Heinrichs, D. Autonomous Driving and Land Use. In Maurer et al. (eds.). Autonomous Driving: Technical, Legal, and Social Aspects. Springer- Verlag GmBH, Berlin, 2016. 24. Kahane, C., and J. Dang. The Long-Term Effect of ABS in Passenger Cars and LTVs. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2009. https:// crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ ViewPublication/811182. 25. Slovic, P. Perception of Risk. Science, Vol. 236, 1987. http://science.sciencemag.org/ content/236/4799/280. 26. Polzin, S. Vehicle Miles Traveled Trends and Implications for the U.S. Interstate Highway System. In, Committee for a Study of the Future Interstate Highway System, Renewing the National Commitment to the Interstate Highway System: A Foundation for the Future, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, forthcoming. 27. Kotkin, J., and M. Schill. A Map of America’s Future: Where Growth Will Be Over the Next Decade. NewGeography, September 9, 2013. http://www.newgeography.com/ content/003914-a-map-of-americas-future- where-growth-will-be-over-the-next-decade. See also Y. Hagler. Defining U.S. Megaregions. America 2050, 2009. http://www. america2050.org/upload/2010/09/2050_ Defining_US_Megaregions.pdf. See also Nelson, G.D., and A. Rae. An Economic Geography of the United States: From Commutes to Megaregions. PLoS ONE, Vol. 11, No. 11, 2016. http://journals.plos. org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal. pone.0166083. 28. Cromartie, J., Rural Areas Show Overall Population Decline and Shifting Regional Patterns of Population Change. U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, September, 2017. https://www.ers.usda.gov/ amber-waves/2017/september/rural-areas- show-overall-population-decline-and-shifting- regional-patterns-of-population-change. 29. Frey, W. U.S. Population Disperses to Suburbs, Exurbs, Rural Areas, and “Middle of the Country” Metros. The Brookings Institution, March 26, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/ blog/the-avenue/2018/03/26/us-population- disperses-to-suburbs-exurbs-rural-areas- and-middle-of-the-country-metros/?utm_ campaign=Metropolitan%20Policy%20 Program&utm_source=hs_email&utm_ medium=email&utm_content=61738659. 30. Kolko, J. Neighborhood Data Show that U.S. Suburbanization Continues (Wonkish), 2016. http://jedkolko.com/2016/03/25/ neighborhood-data-show-that-u-s- suburbanization-continues. 31. Committee for the Study on the Relationships Among Development Patterns, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Energy Consumption. Special Report 298: Driving and the Built Environment: The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO 2 Emissions. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2009. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/12747. 32. Nelson, A.C. Megaregion Projections 2015–2045 with Transportation Policy Implications. Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2645, 2017. https://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/ abs/10.3141/2654-02. 33. Nelson, 2017, p. 13. 34. Nelson, 2017, p. 13. 35. Frey, 2018, Figure 2. 36. Blumenberg, E., et al. Typecasting Neighborhoods and Travelers: Analyzing the Geography of Travel Behavior Among Teens and Young Adults in the U.S. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Los Angeles, Luskin School of Public Affairs, 2015. https://www.lewis.ucla. edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2015/10/ Geography-of-Youth-Travel_Final- Report.pdf?mc_cid=68d255b9a1&mc_ eid=c362ec69d8. 37. Building for Boomers: Housing Preferences of the Boomer Generation. http://newsletter. rismedia.com/news/view/85545. 38. Committee on Atmospheric Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases Concentrations. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. National Academies trb | transportation research board30

of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2011. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12877. 39. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Total U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector 2016. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/ sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions. 40. Green, D.L., and G. Parkhurst. Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate. In Conference Proceedings 54: Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate. Summary of the Fifth EU–U.S. Transportation Research Symposium, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2017. http://www.trb.org/ main/blurbs/177088.aspx. 41. Yu, Y., et al. Environmental Impact Assessment and End-of-Life Treatment Policy Analysis for Li-Ion and Ni-MH Batteries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 11, No. 3, 2014. https://www.ncbi. nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3987029. 42. Green and Parkhurst, 2017, p. 51. 43. Committee for a Study of Potential Energy Savings and Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Transportation. Special Report 307: Policy Options for Reducing Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2011. http://www. trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/165535.aspx. 44. Committee for a Study of Potential Energy Savings and Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Transportation. 2011. 45. Green and Parkhurst, 2017, p. 57. 46. Sperling et al., 2018, pp. 46–52. See also Committee on Overcoming Barriers to Electric- Vehicle Deployment. Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2015. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/21725. See also Lutsey, N., et al. Power Play: How Governments Are Spurring the Electric Vehicle Industry. International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global- electric-vehicle-industry. 47. Committee on Determinants of Market Adoption of Advanced Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy Technologies. The Power of Change: Innovation for Development and Deployment of Increasingly Clean Electric Power Technologies. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2016. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21712. 48. Coignard, J., et al. Clean Vehicles as an Enabler for a Clean Electricity Grid. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 2018. http://iopscience.iop.org/ article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabe97/pdf. 49. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview. National Centers for Environmental Information. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www. ncdc.noaa.gov/billions. 50. Turnbull, K. (ed.). Conference Proceedings 53: Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events. Summary of the Fourth EU–U.S. Transportation Research Symposium. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2016. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24648. 51. Riedman, D. The Cold War on Terrorism: Reevaluating Critical Infrastructure Facilities as Targets for Terrorist Attacks. Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Vol. 14, Figure 5, 2017. https://www.hsaj.org/articles/13976. 52. Panel on Transportation, Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism. TRB Special Report 270: Deterrence, Detection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2003. http://www.trb.org/ Publications/Blurbs/161061.aspx. 53. Schwartz, H.G., and L. Tavasszy. Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events, In Conference Proceedings 53: Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events. Summary of the Fourth EU–U.S. Transportation Research Symposium. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2016. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/ 24648. 54. Schwartz and Tavasszy, 2016. 55. See, for example, Schwartz, J. Surrendering to Rising Seas: Coastal Communities Struggling to Adapt to Climate Change Are Beginning to Do What Was Once Unthinkable: Retreat. Scientific American, Vol. 319, No. 2. August 2018. 56. Weimerskirsch, A., and D. Dominic. Assessing Risk: Identifying and Analyzing Cybersecurity Threats to Automated Vehicles. University of Michigan, 2018. https://mcity.umich.edu/ wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Mcity-white- paper_cybersecurity.pdf. 57. Wallischeck, E. GPS Dependencies in the Transportation Sector: An Inventory of Global Positioning System Dependencies in the Transportation Sector, Best Practices for Improved Robustness of GPS Devices, and Potential Alternative Solutions for Positioning, Navigation and Timing. John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, U.S. Department of Transportation, Cambridge, Mass., 2016. https://www.hsdl. org/?abstract&did=798941. critical issues in transportation 2019 31

58. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Fatalities by Mode, https:// www.bts.gov/content/transportation- fatalities-mode. 59. Committee for the Study of Traffic Safety Lessons from Benchmark Nations. Achieving Traffic Safety Goals in the United States: Lessons from Other Nations. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2011. http://www. trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/164388.aspx. See also, Ecola, L., et al. The Road to Zero: A Vision for Achieving Zero Roadway Deaths by 2050. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2018. https://www.nsc.org/Portals/0/ Documents/DistractedDrivingDocuments/ Driver-Tech/Road%20to%20Zero/The- Report.pdf?ver=2018-04-17-111652-263. See also National Transportation Safety Board, Reducing Speeding-Related Crashes Involving Passenger Vehicles. Safety Study NTSB/SS- 17/01. https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety- studies/Documents/SS1701.pdf. 60. Committee for the Study of Traffic Safety Lessons from Benchmark Nations, 2011. See also Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths: How is the U.S. Doing? https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/ motor-vehicle-safety. 61. Harper, C., et al. Cost and Benefit Estimates of Partially-Automated Vehicle Collision Avoidance Technologies. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 95, Part A, Elsevier, 2016. 62. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Reality Check: Research, Deadly Crashes Show Need for Caution on the Road to Full Autonomy. Status Report, Vol. 53, No. 4, 2018. https:// www.iihs.org/externaldata/srdata/docs/ sr5304.pdf. 63. International Transport Forum. Safer Roads with Automated Vehicles? Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2018. https://www.itf-oecd.org/safer-roads- automated-vehicles-0. 64. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Distracted Driving Overview. https://www. nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/distracted-driving. 65. AAA. Distraction Tops Drivers’ List of Growing Dangers on the Road, 2018. https:// newsroom.aaa.com/2018/03/distraction- tops-drivers-list-growing-dangers-road. See also, National Safety Council. Understanding the Distracted Brain: Why Driving While Using Hands-Free Cell Phones is Risky Behavior. White Paper, 2012, https:// www.nsc.org/Portals/0/Documents/ DistractedDrivingDocuments/Cognitive- Distraction-White-Paper.pdf. 66. Krzyzanowski, M., B. Kuna-Dibbert, and J. Schneider (eds.), Health Effects of Transport-Related Air Pollution. World Health Organization, 2005. http://www.euro.who. int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/74715/ E86650.pdf. 67. Clark, C., and S. Stansfield. The Effect of Transportation Noise on Health and Cognitive Development: Review of Recent Evidence. International Journal of Comparative Psychology, Vol. 20, 2007, pp. 145–158. 68. Heaviside, C., H. Macintyre, and S. Vardoulakis. The Urban Heat Island: Implications for Health in a Changing Environment. Current Environmental Health Reports, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2017. https://link.springer.com/ article/10.1007%2Fs40572-017-0150-3. 69. Tatem, A., D. Rogers, and S. Hay. Global Transport Networks and Infectious Disease Spread. Advances in Parasitology, Vol. 26, 2011. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ articles/PMC3145127. 70. Panel on Research Methodologies and Statistical Approaches to Understanding Driver Fatigue Factors in Motor Carrier Safety and Driver Health. Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Fatigue, Long-Term Health, and Highway Safety: Research Needs. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2016. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/21921. See also Committee on the Effects of Commuting on Pilot Fatigue. The Effects of Commuting on Pilot Fatigue. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2011. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/13201. 71. The Lancet Commission on Pollution and Public Health. The Lancet, Vol. 391, No. 10119, 2017. https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/ pollution-and-health?code=lancet-site. For health effects from traffic emissions, see Health Effects Institute National Particle Component Toxicity (NPACT) Review Panel. Executive Summary: National Particle Component Toxicity Initiative. HEI Research Reports 177 and 178, 2013. https://www. healtheffects.org/publication/national- particle-component-toxicity-npact-initiative- integrated-epidemiologic-and. 72. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. How Mobile Source Pollution Affects Your Health. https://www.epa.gov/mobile-source- pollution/how-mobile-source-pollution- affects-your-health. 73. Markus, J.H., and M. Rosekind. Fatigue in Transportation: NTSB Investigations and Safety Recommendations. Injury Prevention, Vol. 23, No. 4, August 2017. https://www.ncbi. nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26929259. 74. Panel on Research Methodologies and Statistical Approaches to Understanding Driver Fatigue trb | transportation research board32

Factors in Motor Carrier Safety and Driver Health, 2016. 75. Aerospace Forecast Report Fiscal Years 2017 to 2037. Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2017. https://www.faa.gov/news/ updates/?newsId=87746&cid=TW502. 76. Hawkins, A.J. The Kitty Hawk Flyer Is Your Own Personal Electric Aircraft. The Verge, 2018. https://www.theverge. com/2018/6/9/17438012/kitty-hawk-flying- flying-car-vtol-larry-page. 77. See remarks of C. Tomlin as summarized in S. Olson (ed.), Autonomy on Land and Sea and in the Air and Space: Proceedings of a Forum. National Academy of Engineering, The National Academies Press, 2018. https:// www.nap.edu/catalog/25168. 78. Committee for a Study of Performance Based Safety Regulation. TRB Special Report 324: Designing Safety Regulation for High-Hazard Industries. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2017. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/24907. 79. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Crashes Rise in First States to Begin Legalized Retail Sales of Recreational Marijuana. 2018. https://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/ desktopnews/crashes-rise-in-first-states-to- begin-legalized-retail-sales-of-recreational- marijuana. 80. Compton, R. Marijuana-Impaired Driving—A Report to Congress. DOT HS 812 440. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2017. https:// www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/ documents/812440-marijuana-impaired- driving-report-to-congress.pdf. 81. Hu, W., and J.B. Cicchino. An Examination of the Increase in Pedestrian Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities during 2009–16. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, May 2018. http:// www.iihs.org/frontend/iihs/documents/ masterfiledocs.ashx?id=2160. 82. Semega, J.L., K.R. Fontenot, and M.A. Kollar. Income and Poverty in the United States: 2016. Current Population Reports. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2017. https:// www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/ publications/2017/demo/P60-259.pdf. 83. Polzin, S., and A. Pisarksi. Brief 7: Vehicle and Transit Availability. In Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C., 2013. http://traveltrends. transportation.org/Documents/B7_ Vehicle%20and%20Transit%20Availability_ CA07-4_web.pdf. 84. Brown, A., and B. Taylor. Bridging the Gap Between Mobility Haves and Have Nots. In Sperling et al., 2018. 85. Brown, A., and B. Taylor, 2018. 86. Polzin and Pisarksi, 2013. 87. Bialik, K. Seven Facts About Americans with Disabilities. Pew Research Center, 2017. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact- tank/2017/07/27/7-facts-about-americans- with-disabilities. 88. Vespa, J., D. Armstrong, and L. Medina. Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060. Current Population Reports. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2018. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/ Census/library/publications/2018/demo/ P25_1144.pdf. 89. Smith, A. Record Shares of Americans Now Own Smartphones, Have Home Broadband. Pew Research Center, 2017. http://www. pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/ evolution-of-technology. 90. National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, 2015. https://www.fdic.gov/ householdsurvey. 91. Brown and Taylor, 2018. 92. Committee for Review of Innovative Urban Mobility Services, 2016, pp. 134–137. 93. Kim, S.J., and R. Puentes. Taxing New Mobility Services: What’s Right? What’s Next? Eno Brief, 2018. https://www.enotrans.org/ etl-material/eno-brief-taxing-new-mobility- services-whats-right-whats-next. 94. Kneebone, E. The Changing Geography of U.S. Poverty. The Brookings Institution, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/the- changing-geography-of-us-poverty. See also Brown and Taylor, 2018. 95. Committee on Equity Implications of Evolving Transportation Finance Mechanisms. Special Report 303: Equity of Evolving Transportation Finance Mechanisms. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2011. https://www. nap.edu/catalog/13240. 96. Innes, J.E., D.E. Booher, and S. Di Vittorio. Strategies for Megaregion Governance: Collaborative Dialogue, Networks, and Self Organization. Working Paper 2010-03. University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, 2010. https://iurd.berkeley.edu/wp/2010-03.pdf. 97. Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency Program. http:// www.createprogram.org/about.htm. 98. The Gateway Program Development Corporation. http://www.gatewayprogram.org. 99. Nelson, 2017. critical issues in transportation 2019 33

100. Committee for a Study of Intercity Passenger Travel Issues and Opportunities in Short-Haul Markets. Special Report 230: Interregional Travel: A New Perspective for Policy Making. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2017. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/ 21887. 101. Jittrapirom, P., et al. Mobility as a Service: A Critical Review of Definitions, Assessments of Schemes, and Key Challenges. Urban Planning, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2017. https://www. cogitatiopress.com/urbanplanning/article/ view/931/931. 102. Committee for Review of Innovative Urban Mobility Services, 2016, p. 165. 103. Cuddy, M., et al. The Smart/Connected City and Its Implications for Connected Transportation. White Paper FHWA JPO-14-148. John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, U.S. Department of Transportation, Cambridge, Mass., 2014. https://www.its.dot.gov/ itspac/Dec2014/Smart_Connected_City_ FINAL_111314.pdf. 104. Committee for the Review of Innovative Urban Mobility Services, 2016, pp. 165–166. 105. INRIX Traffic Scorecard–U.S., 2016. http://inrix. com/resources/inrix-2016-traffic-scorecard- us. See also Cortwright, J. Yet Another Flawed Congestion Report from INRIX. http:// cityobservatory.org/yet-another-flawed- congestion-report-from-inrix. 106. Hooper, A. Cost of Congestion to the Trucking Industry: 2018 Update. American Transportation Research Institute, Atlanta, Ga., 2018. http:// atri-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ ATRI-Cost-of-Congestion-to-the-Trucking-Industry- 2018-Update-10-2018.pdf. 107. Ball, M., et al. Total Delay Impact Study: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Cost and Impacts of Flight Delay in the United States. National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research, 2010. https://www. isr.umd.edu/NEXTOR/pubs/TDI_Report_ Final_10_18_10_V3.pdf. 108. Value of and Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Other Assets. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2017, Ch. 8. https://www.bts. gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/ transportation-economic-trends/tet-2017- chapter-8-value-and. 109. National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission. Transportation for Tomorrow. Report to Congress, 2007. https:// rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/18125. 110. Various surveys of public opinion about fuel taxes and other user fees report different results depending on how questions are framed and sampling techniques. For a particularly well framed set of questions, repeated over time to random samples, see Agrawal, A.W., and H. Nixon. What Do Americans Think About Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year Nine of a National Survey. Mineta Transportation Institute, 2018. https://transweb.sjsu.edu/ research/1828-Survey-Transportation-Tax-Year- Nine. See also Zmud, J., and C. Arce. NCHRP Synthesis 377: Compilation of Public Opinion Data on Tolls and Road Pricing. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2008. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/14151. 111. Committee for a Study of Air Traffic Controller Staffing. Special Report 314: The Federal Aviation Administration’s Approach for Determining Future Air Traffic Controller Staffing Needs. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2014, Ch. 6. https:// www.nap.edu/catalog/18824. 112. Committee on Reinvesting in Inland Waterways. Special Report 315: Funding and Managing the U.S. Inland Waterways System. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2015. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21763. 113. Committee for the Study on the Long-Term Viability of Fuel Taxes for Transportation. Special Report 285: The Fuel Tax and Alternatives for Transportation Funding. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2006. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/ 11568. 114. Committee on Equity Implications of Evolving Transportation Finance Mechanisms, 2011. 115. Agrawal, A.W., H. Nixon, and A. Hooper. NCHRP Program Synthesis 487: Public Perception of Mileage-Based User Fees. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2016. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23401. 116. Agrawal and Nixon, 2018. 117. American Trucking Associations. America’s Truckers Challenge Policymakers to Support Bold Infrastructure Plan, 2018. http://www. trucking.org/article/America%E2%80%99s- Truckers-Challenge-Policymakers-to-Support- Bold-Infrastructure-Plan. 118. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Modernizing America’s Infrastructure Requires Adjusting the Federal Motor Vehicle User Fee, 2018. https:// www.uschamber.com/issue-brief/modernizing- america-s-infrastructure-requires-adjusting-the- federal-motor-vehicle-user. 119. AAA. AAA, ATA, and U.S. Chamber Ask Congress to Fund Roads and Bridges, 2015. https:// newsroom.aaa.com/tag/gas-tax. 120. Davis, C. Most States Have Raised Gas Taxes in Recent Years. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, 2018. https://itep.org/most- states-have-raised-gas-taxes-in-recent-years. trb | transportation research board34

121. Paying Our Way: A New Framework for Transportation Finance. National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission, 2009. https:// financecommission.dot.gov. 122. See the World Bank Logistics Performance Index. https://lpi.worldbank.org. See also, The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017. The World Economic Forum, 2016, Table 2. http://www3. weforum.org/docs/GCR2016-2017/05FullReport/ TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2016-2017_ FINAL.pdf. 123. Freight Shipments Projected to Continue to Grow. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation. https:// www.transportation.gov/connections/ freight-shipments-projected-continue-grow. See also Freight Analysis Framework. Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/ freight/freight_analysis/faf. 124. Committee for the Study on Funding Options for Freight Transportation Projects of National Significance. Special Report 297: Funding Options for Freight Transportation Projects. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2009. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/ 24702. 125. Groshen, E., et al. Preparing U.S. Workers and Employers for an Autonomous Vehicle Future. Prepared for Securing America’s Future Energy, 2018. https://avworkforce.secureenergy.org/ wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Groshen-et-al- Report-June-2018-1.pdf. See also Autor, D.H. Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workforce Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2015. https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563. 126. McKinnon, A.C. The Possible Impact of 3D printing and Drones on Last-Mile Logistics: An Exploratory Study. Built Environment, Vol. 42, No. 4, 2016. 127. Holguín-Veras, J., et al. Direct Impacts of Off- Hour Deliveries on Urban Freight Emissions. Transportation Research Part D, Vol. 61, Part A, pp. 84–103, 2018. 128. Groshen et al., 2018, and Autor, 2015. 129. Ward, A., et al. 2018 State of Logistics Report— Steep Grade Ahead. A.T. Kearney, Chicago, Ill., 2018. https://www.atkearney.com/ transportation-travel/state-of-logistics-report. See also Ward, A., et al, 2018, as cited by Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. https://cscmp.org/CSCMP/Footer/Press_ Release/CSCMP_Unveils_the_29th_Annual_ State_of_Logistics_Report.aspx. 130. Ward et al., 2018. 131. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Freight Facts and Figures 2017. Tables 2-1 and 2-2, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 2017. https://www.bts.gov/sites/bts.dot. gov/files/docs/FFF_2017.pdf. 132. Committee for the Review of the U.S. Department of Transportation Truck Size and Weight Study. Review of U.S. DOT Truck Size and Weight Study—Second Report: Review of USDOT Technical Reports. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2015. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/22092. See also Truck Size and Weight Limits Research Plan Committee. Research to Support Evaluation of Truck Size and Weight Regulations. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., forthcoming. 133. For a discussion of safety issues in transporting hazardous materials, see Committee for a Study of Domestic Transportation of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Ethanol. Special Report 325: Safely Transporting Hazardous Liquids and Gases in a Changing U.S. Energy Landscape. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2018. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/24923. 134. Committee on Future Surface Transportation Agency Human Resource Needs. Special Report 275: The Workforce Challenge: Recruiting, Training, and Retaining Qualified Workers for Transportation and Transit Agencies. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2003. https://www.nap. edu/catalog/10764. 135. Federal Highway Administration. Regional Traffic Signal Operations Programs: An Overview. U.S. Department of Transportation, 2009. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/ fhwahop09007/index.htm. 136. See Groshen et al., 2018, and Autor, 2015. 137. Salter, A.J., and B.R. Martin. The Economic Benefits of Publicly Funded Basic Research: A Critical Review. Research Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, 2001. https://www.sciencedirect.com/ science/article/pii/S0048733300000913. 138. Atkinson, R. Understanding the U.S. National Innovation System. The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 2014. http://www2.itif.org/2014-understanding-us- innovation-system.pdf. 139. Downs, A. Inside Bureaucracy. Little, Brown and Company. Boston, Mass., 1967. 140. Cummings, M. The Brave New World of Driverless Cars: The Need for Interdisciplinary Research and Workforce Development. TR News, No 308, March–April 2017. https://hal.pratt.duke.edu/ sites/hal.pratt.duke.edu/files/u24/TRN_308_ Cummings_%20pp34-37%20web.pdf. critical issues in transportation 2019 35

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TRB has released Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. In this report, which is updated periodically by the TRB Executive Committee, a series of challenging questions are posed to explore issues and opportunities that may arise 10 to 20 years into the future. These questions, 63 in all, have been organized into 12 topic areas and provide a way to frame future areas of research, policy analysis, and debate. Critical issues identified in this report deserve attention because of transportation’s central role in serving individuals and society. This document serves to sharpen society's collective understanding of transportation and its ramifications, while informing decisions by individual citizens and officials in both the public and private sectors. The issues have been identified and documented from a U.S. perspective, and are also common across developed nations.

Download the executive overview, Critical Issues in Transportation: Policy Snapshot and or visit www.TRB.org/criticalissues from your mobile device.

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