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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction The Future of Electric Power in the United States Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S. Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract No. DE-EP0000026 of the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25968 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2021 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25968. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE UNITED STATES GRANGER MORGAN, NAS, Carnegie Mellon University, Chair ANURADHA ANNASWAMY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ANJAN BOSE, NAE, Washington State University TERRY BOSTON, NAE, Terry Boston, LLC JEFFERY DAGLE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology MICHAEL HOWARD, Electric Power Research Institute CYNTHIA HSU, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association REIKO A. KERR, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power KAREN PALMER, Resources for the Future H. VINCENT POOR, NAE/NAS, Princeton University WILLIAM H. SANDERS, Carnegie Mellon University SUSAN TIERNEY, Analysis Group DAVID VICTOR, University of California, San Diego ELIZABETH WILSON, Dartmouth College Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Co-Director, Board Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (beginning January 2020) BRENT HEARD, Study Co-Director, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (beginning January 2020) BEN WENDER, Study Director, Senior Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (until December 2019) ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems KASIA KORNECKI, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Business Partner, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems NOTE: See Appendix C, Disclosure of Conflict(s) of Interest. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS JARED COHON, NAE, Carnegie Mellon University, Chair VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises CARLA BAILO, Center for Automotive Research W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, GridLiance GP, LLC, and Grid Protection Alliance DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, The Fletcher School, Tufts University T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJ Glauthier Associates, LLC NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures DENISE GRAY, LG Chem Michigan Inc. JOHN KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired) ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission (former) Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Director/Scholar HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager REBECCA DEBOER, Program Assistant MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Assistant BEN A. WENDER, Senior Program Officer (until December 2019) ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer BRENT HEARD, Associate Program Officer KASIA KORNECKI, Associate Program Officer CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Preface Electricity is essential to modern society. We use it to light our buildings and streets and warm and cool the places where we live and work. Electric power ensures our supplies of food and clean water, powers commerce and industry, enables communication and computing, runs gas, transportation, water, and other networked infrastructures, keeps hospitals open and operating, helps to process our wastes, and many other things. In light of these critical roles that electricity plays, in its 2018 appropriations for the Department of Energy, the U.S. Congress directed the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to appoint an ad hoc committee of experts to “conduct an evaluation of the expected medium- and long-term evolution of the grid. This evaluation shall focus on developments that include the emergence of new technologies, planning and operating techniques, grid architecture, and business models.”1 The present report is the most recent in a series of consensus reports that the National Academies have produced on key issues specifically related to electric power over the course of the last decade. The earlier reports were: 1. America’s Energy Future, 2009 2. Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments, 2010 3. Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System, 2012 4. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid, 2016 5. The Power of Change: Innovation for Development and Deployment of Increasingly Clean Electric Power Technologies, 2016 6. Enhancing the Resilience of the Nation’s Electricity System, 2017 While the membership of each of these committees has been different, there has been enough overlap in participants from one to the next to provide continuity, while also adding new participants who have brought valuable new perspectives and insights. In addition to chairing the present study, I have had the honor of chairing the committees for the 2012 report on terrorism and the 2017 report on enhancing the resilience of the system. In both of these, as in this study, I have had an outstanding committee that both worked very well together, while bringing a wealth of informed insight from years of experience with the many institutions, and provided perspectives that are relevant to the operation of this critical infrastructure. Fortunately, the present committee had met a sufficient number of times in face-to-face meetings to have developed good rapport before SARS-CoV- 2 forced us to move all our interactions entirely on line. And, of course, it was electricity that made those on-line meetings possible! No single planner or designer is responsible for the U.S. power system. Indeed, while years ago a few entities were responsible for designing and operating most of the grid, over the course of the past several decades, this has changed. Driven largely by policy choices that have placed much greater emphasis on markets and competition, and the sometimes divergent interests of federal, state, regional and local 1 The full statement of task—which, in addition to a very general call to assess how the grid may evolve in the future also includes a specific request that the committee address issue of technologies, planning and operations, business models, and grid architectures—can be found in Appendix A. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

authorities, it has become ever more challenging to answer the simple question: "who is in charge of planning, developing and ensuring the integrity of the future power system?" To a large extent it is an incremental and piecemeal process, driven by multiple independent parties operating differently in the various parts of the country, that is shaping how the grid has been evolving, and how it will evolve in the future. At the same time, it is clear that there are a number of technical developments and legal and regulatory changes that could facilitate a variety of new and beneficial developments, some of which could be quite revolutionary. Rather than trying to peer into a clouded crystal ball and attempt to predict the future of the grid, our committee has instead focused on identifying, describing and recommending developments that could support beneficial evolution of the nation’s power system across a wide range of futures, while also suggesting a number of needed remedial actions. The committee’s understanding of key issues facing the grid has been enriched by presentations made at two workshops: “Communications, Cyber Resilience, and the Future of the U.S. Power System” (Appendix E); and “Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the U.S.” (Appendix F). Our work has also been informed by webinars the committee organized on approaches to modeling power flows, grid architectures, and the different power marketing administrations operating in different regions across the United States. Last, the committee members and I, together with our excellent supporting staff, want to thank the many outside experts—including experts from the DOE and several other federal agencies, state regulators and their staffs, original equipment manufacturers and suppliers and their respective associations, and nongovernmental organizations—who contributed significantly of their time and efforts to inform this study, either by giving presentations at meetings or by responding to committee requests for information. We have acknowledged the valuable contributions of individuals and organizations that provided information and made presentations at our meetings in Appendix D. It is our committee’s hope that, over the decades to come, this report will help to make America's critically important electric power system safer and more secure, cleaner and more sustainable, more affordable and equitable, and more reliable and resilient. M. Granger Morgan. Chair Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION viii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers The completion of this study would not have been successful without the assistance of many individuals who engaged in helpful discussions with committee members and provided valuable information during the committee’s data-gathering process. A list of presenters from workshops and webinars can be found in Appendix D. The committee would especially like to thank the following individuals for their consultations and input: Laura Diaz Anadon, Cambridge University; Gilbert Bindewald III, U.S. Department of Energy; Maureen Clapper, U.S. Department of Energy; Gregory Falco, Johns Hopkins University; David Hart, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Paul Hines, The University of Vermont; Annabelle Lee, Nevermore Security; Craig Miller, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association; Galen Rasche, Electric Power Research Institute; Kelly Sims Gallagher, Tufts University; Varun Sivaram, Columbia University; Paul Skare, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Saleh Soltan, Amazon; Stephen Walls, U.S. Department of Energy; Tim Yardley, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. As a final check on the quality and objectivity of the study, all National Academies reports whether products of studies, summaries of workshop proceedings, or other documents must undergo a rigorous, independent external review by experts whose comments are provided anonymously to the committee members. The review process is structured to ensure that each report addresses its approved study charge and does not go beyond it, that the findings are supported by the scientific evidence and arguments presented, that the exposition and organization are effective, and that the report is impartial and objective. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: William O. Ball, Southern Company Services, Inc. (retired), Marilyn A. Brown, NAS, Georgia Institute of Technology, Richard Cowart, Regulatory Assistance Project, David M. Hart, George Mason University, Tim Heidel, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Colette D. Honorable, Reed Smith, Anita K. Jones, NAE, University of Virginia, Herb Lin, Stanford University, Damir Novosel, NAE, Quanta Technology, Mark J. O’Malley, University College Dublin, Tom Overbye, NAE, Texas A&M University, Peter Sauer, NAE, University of Illinois, Alison Silverstein, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, and Bruce Wollenberg, NAE, University of Minnesota. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William Press, University of Texas, Austin, and Clark Gellings, Clark Gellings and Associates, LLC. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION x

Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION: FRAMING THE ISSUES 18 2 DRIVERS OF CHANGE 41 3 LEGAL AND REGULATORY ISSUES THAT SHAPE THE ELECTRIC SYSTEM 99 4 THE PERSISTENT UNDERINVESTMENT IN ELECTRIC POWER INNOVATION 148 5 TECHNOLOGIES AND TOOLS TO ENABLE A RANGE OF FUTURE POWER 174 SYSTEMS 6 CREATING A MORE SECURE AND RESILIENT POWER SYSTEM 227 7 HIGH-LEVEL NEEDS AND SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS 293 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 317 B Committee Biographical Information 318 C Disclosure of Conflict(s) of Interest 324 D Committee Activities 325 E Workshop Summary—Communications, Cyber Resilience, and the 330 Future of the U.S. Electric Power System F Workshop Summary—Models to Inform Planning for the Future of 332 Electric Power in the U.S. G Acronyms 334 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xii

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Electric power is essential for the lives and livelihoods of all Americans, and the need for electricity that is safe, clean, affordable, and reliable will only grow in the decades to come. At the request of Congress and the Department of Energy, the National Academies convened a committee of experts to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the U.S. grid and how it might evolve in response to advances in new energy technologies, changes in demand, and future innovation.

The Future of Electric Power in the United States presents an extensive set of policy and funding recommendations aimed at modernizing the U.S. electric system. The report addresses technology development, operations, grid architectures, and business practices, as well as ways to make the electricity system safe, secure, sustainable, equitable, and resilient.

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