Investing in Transportation Resilience: A Framework for Informed Choices (2021)

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Committee on Transportation Resilience Metrics A Consensus Study Report of

Transportation Research Board Special Report 340 Subscriber Categories: Policy, general transportation Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www. TRB.org or nationalacademies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organi- zational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eli- gible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax 202-334-2519; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). Copyright 2021 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America This publication was reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine. Cover: Top left: Houston flooding, photograph by David Flores; Top right: Oregon Department of Transportation, Flickr; Bottom left: Metro-North Railroad’s Port Jervis Line damaged by Hurricane Irene, photograph by Metropolitan Transporta- tion Authority/Hilary Ring; Bottom right: Terminal C in LaGuardia Airport after Superstorm Sandy, photograph by Frank Giannola. This study was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-09390-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-09390-2 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26292 Library of Congress Control Number: 2021945948

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v COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCE METRICS Joseph L. Schofer, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, Chair Paolo Bocchini, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania Henry V. Burton, University of California, Los Angeles Susanne E. DesRoches, New York City Mayor’s Office, New York Alexander Heil, Citizens Budget Commission, New York, New York Geraldine Knatz (NAE), University of Southern California, Long Beach Elise Miller-Hooks, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia RADM Ann C. Phillips (U.S. Navy, retired), Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia, Richmond Jose E. Ramirez-Marquez, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey Victor Rivas, Jacobs Engineering Group Inc., Boston, Massachusetts John (Jack) V. Wells, retired transportation economist, Washington, D.C. Shawn Wilson, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Baton Rouge Transportation Research Board Staff Monica A. Starnes, Study Director, Consensus and Advisory Studies Thomas R. Menzies, Jr., Director, Consensus and Advisory Studies Claudia Sauls, Program Coordinator, Consensus and Advisory Studies Anusha Jayasinghe, Associate Program Officer, Consensus and Advisory Studies Consultant Sarah Jo Peterson, 23 Urban Strategies, LLC

vii H.R.1865—Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020, calls on the “Secretary of Transportation to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a study through the Transportation Research Board on effective ways to measure the resilience of transportation systems and services to natural disasters, natural hazards, and other potential disruptions.” To conduct the study, the National Academies appointed a committee of 12 experts in the fields of multimodal transportation infrastructure, transportation policy and deci- sion making, resilience, economics, and risk analysis tools. This report represents the consensus efforts of these 12 individuals, who served uncom- pensated in the public interest. Their biographical information is provided in Appendix A. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The committee met 14 times from May 2020 to April 2021 to gather informa tion relevant to the study and to deliberate on the report contents, findings, and recommendations. Four of the meetings included briefings and discussions with experts from the transportation agencies and organizations on existing and planned uses of resilience decision-making frameworks, methodologies, metrics, and related data. The committee wishes to thank the following individuals for participat- ing in these briefings and making other contributions to the committee’s work: Preface

viii PREFACE Matthew Arms, Port of Long Beach; David Ferryman, EVRAZ North America (formerly with CN); Robert Germann, U.S. Army Corps of Engi- neers; Angela Gladwell, Federal Emergency Management Agency; Robert Kafalenos, Federal Highway Administration; Elizabeth Kemp, Colorado Department of Transportation; Jeffrey Meek, Minnesota Department of Transportation; Brendan Reed, San Diego County Regional Airport Authority; Porie Saikia-Eapen and Andrew McMahan, New York Metro- politan Transportation Authority; and Dale Stith, Hampton Roads Trans- portation Planning Organization. The committee also wishes to thank Alasdair Cain, U.S. Department of Transportation, and Josephine Eckert, U.S. House of Representatives, for participating in the first committee meeting and sharing their insight on the study. Monica A. Starnes directed the study and assisted the study committee in the preparation of this report under the guidance of Thomas R. Menzies, Jr. Sarah Jo Peterson supported the writing of the report. The report has been independently reviewed in draft form by indi- viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accor- dance with procedures specified by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will help ensure that the report is balanced and evidence-based and satisfies institutional standards for objectivity and re- sponsiveness to the study’s charge. The reviewers’ comments and the draft manuscript with which they were provided remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The committee thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Peter Cafiero, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority; Katherine Chambers, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; Ginger Evans, CAG Holdings LLC; Geoffrey Heal (National Academy of Sciences), Columbia University; Jennifer Jacobs, University of New Hampshire; Brendan Reed, San Diego County Regional Airport Authority; Carol Lee Roalkvam, Washington State Department of Transportation; Eugene Seroka, Port of Los Angeles; Kumares Sinha (National Academy of Engineering), Purdue University; and Sharon Wood (National Academy of Engineering), The Uni- versity of Texas at Austin. Although these reviewers provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the committee’s conclusions and recommendations, nor did they see the final version of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris T. Hendrickson ( National Academy of Engineering), Carnegie Mellon University ( emeritus), and Ross B. Corotis (National Academy of Engineering), University of Colorado Boulder. Appointed by the National Academies, they were responsible for

PREFACE ix making certain that an independent review of the report was conducted in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered by the committee. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests solely with the authoring committee and the institution. Karen Febey, senior report review officer, Transportation Research Board, managed the report review process.

xi Contents ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 7 Study Charge, 10 Study Scope and Approach, 11 Report Organization, 16 2 NATURAL HAZARDS, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND AMERICA’S TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE 19 To Build Resilience—First, Understand the Hazard, 22 Natural Hazards and Climate Change, 23 Exposure and Event Likelihood, 30 Hazard Characterization, 34 Multiple and Cascading Events, 36 Measuring and Modeling Hazard Scenarios, 37 Data for Models and Projections, 39 Chapter Summary, 43 3 CURRENT PRACTICE IN MEASURING AND MANAGING TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM RESILIENCE 45 Introduction to Current Practice, 45 Types of Metrics Used in Practice, 47 Federal Pilot Programs, 51

xii CONTENTS Comprehensive Approaches to Resilience, 52 Vulnerability Assessments, 60 Resilience Indicators: Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, 64 Design Guides, 68 Summary of Metrics, 69 Chapter Summary, 72 4 CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH ON RESILIENCE AND RESILIENCE METRICS 75 Functionality Recovery Curves, 79 Resilience Metrics Based on Functionality Recovery Curves, 82 Models Incorporating Uncertainty, 88 Functionality Metrics for Transportation Systems, 94 Methods and Tools for Analyzing Hazard Mitigation, 98 Chapter Summary, 99 5 DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK 103 General Principles of a Decision Support Framework, 105 A Multi-Step Decision Support Framework, 106 Applying the Results of the Decision Framework, 116 Chapter Summary, 123 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 125 Recommendations, 127 APPENDIXES A STUDY COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION 131 B INVITED SPEAKERS AT COMMITTEE MEETINGS 139 C LIST OF SELECTED NATURAL HAZARD DATABASES 141

AI artificial intelligence BCA benefit-cost analysis CMIP Climate Model Intercomparison Project DOT Department of Transportation FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAST Fixing America’s Surface Transportation FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FHWA Federal Highway Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HRTPO Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization IN-CORE Interdependent Networked Community Resilience Modeling Environment LACMTA Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii

xiv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS OST Office of the Secretary of Transportation PRAISys Probabilistic Resilience Assessment of Interdependent Systems RAMCAP Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection RDRM Resilience and Disaster Recovery Metamodel SoVI® Social Vulnerability Index SPUR San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association STIP Statewide Transportation Improvement Program TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone TRB Transportation Research Board U.S. DOT U.S. Department of Transportation USGS U.S. Geological Survey VAST Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool WMATA Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority