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Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies (2022)

Chapter: Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 7 - Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26512.
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67   C H A P T E R   7 7.1 Perspective on the Aviation Demand Implementation Timeline Short-Term Perspectives (2025 Horizon) In the market assessment, the model forecasts indicate only a modest fleet size, accounting for less than 2 percent of the total fleet mix. It is expected that aircraft operators will be converting or replacing existing airplanes, as presented in Chapter 4, Market Assessment, assuming that they can capture operational savings that justify the upfront capital costs, and that the FAA certifies thermic-to-electric retrofitting (via STCs) and new electric aircraft types (via TCs) under the “Airworthiness Standards” of either 14 CFR Part 23 (Normal Category Airplanes) or 14 CFR Part 25 (Transport Category Airplanes). This effort will begin with smaller aircraft (2 to 12 seats). Small air carriers involved with pilot projects (e.g., Harbour Air Seaplanes) or committed to pioneer electric aviation (e.g., Cape Air) will fly these commuter aircraft as soon as they are certified for commercial service. These air carriers may report a slight increase in passenger demand as a result of emerging electric aircraft if they meet their expectations regarding operating costs. Flight schools and clubs (e.g., Aspen Flying Club, OSM Aviation Academy), as well as private owners will start purchasing electric aircraft as well, as long as the price tag and operating costs are competitive. The first prototypes of larger regional e-aircraft (20 to 60 seats) may fly by 2025. These pro- totypes might be existing, commercial retrofitted aircraft with electric powertrains at first. For instance, in 2020, MagniX and Universal Hydrogen announced teaming together for developing retrofitting solutions for Dash 8-300 and ATR 42. Due to the higher electric power demand of this category of aircraft, fuel cells powered by hydrogen might be required to enable adequate payload and range, at least until new generations of batteries with higher power densities are available. Medium-Term Perspectives (2030 Horizon) The runup to 2030 is still too early for dramatic shifts in demand to electric flights, so signifi- cant changes to the air travel demand induced by electric aviation are not likely in this time- frame. In other words, electric aviation will not be a major driver of passenger demand growth at this horizon. The potential increase in air travel and passenger throughput that could occur as a longer-term impact of electric aviation is still uncertain because electric aviation is still emerging. In addition, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the shape of the recovery could affect and delay the investments of air carriers into new aircraft types and lower their appetite for disruptive technologies due to inherent risk exposure. However, it is expected that electric aviation will make its case in regional aviation, general aviation, and flight training (Figure 23). If it delivers in terms of lower costs, it can boost regional Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand

68 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies aviation and generate a new type of regional air mobility that connects smaller communities and larger metropolitan areas on short-haul flights. A favorable framework at the state level that addresses the challenges described later in the analysis can enable and promote the emergence of regional leaders in electric aircraft operations. As of today, Colorado and Washington state are exploring options for facilitating the implementation of electric aviation statewide. Long-Term Perspectives (2040 Horizon and Beyond) The next step to the electrification of large commercial aircraft (60+ seats) requires a replace- ment for turbojet engines that has yet to be defined because the technological path to fully electric or hybrid airliners is not yet clear. Growing environmental concerns and social expecta- tions, international and federal policies, and industry practices might push aircraft operators and manufacturers to invest in electric and hybrid options for larger aircraft. Air carriers are already committing to mitigating their emissions. For instance, JetBlue started to offset the carbon emissions of all its domestic flights in 2020. Robin Hayes, CEO of Jet- Blue, explains that “reducing and mitigating our GHG emissions is a fundamental aspect of our business plan and our mission to inspire humanity.” Delta Air Lines has a 10-year program to mitigate all its emissions. For international aviation, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is an ICAO-led global carbon-emission mitiga- tion approach that promotes Sustainable Aviation Fuels and carbon offsetting. However, these are only the first steps toward greener aviation. Electric and hybrid aircraft might be the next step to reduce aviation’s contribution to climate change and make the industry less reliant on fossil fuels. Electric aviation, along with hydrogen- powered jet and turboprop engines, can be an evolutionary step toward greener aviation beyond carbon offsetting. Airport Use Cases Overview The objective of this use-case approach is to relate the concept of operations to its environ- ment and the constraints and demands on the supporting airport infrastructure. Metrics of interest associated with these operations follow: Figure 23. Potential timeline of electric aircraft implementation.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 69   • Aircraft utilization: Number of flight hours flown by a single aircraft during a given time period (day, month, or year). A higher aircraft utilization yields lower operating costs because fixed costs are then amortized over a larger number of flight hours. However, the increased amount of flying results in higher energy needs from the supporting airport electric infrastructure. • Turnaround time: Time spent on the ground between subsequent flights. Shorter ground turnaround times enable higher aircraft utilization. This reduces the time available to recharge batteries and requires quicker energy transfer. High-power superchargers can be used to quickly recharge batteries but result in higher power demand from the electric grid and, therefore, higher electricity costs. Swappable batteries can be used to reduce the turn- around time, but this requires a supporting infrastructure to recharge and store additional spare batteries. • Operational tempo: Operational tempo is a measure of the intensity of operations. Short turnaround times define high-tempo operations while extended turnaround times define low-tempo operations. • Monthly energy need: Amount of electric energy needed over the course of one month to recharge the batteries of aircraft operating from an airport. • Electric power demand: Maximum instantaneous power drawn from the supporting electric grid to power battery chargers. Important: The forecast used in the following airport use cases does not take into consideration the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that will postpone the occurrence of the level of traffic depicted. A delay of 2 to 5 years might be introduced starting in 2020 to account for the traffic drop and the recovery. Flight Training Pilot training is typically divided into ground training and in-flight training. Ground training typically consists of pre-flight instruction and post-flight debriefings. In-flight training usually consists of flights lasting between 45 minutes and 90 minutes, followed by the refueling of the aircraft for subsequent training flights. As a result, missions are quite short and separated by a short turnaround time. Because most flight training missions occur during daylight hours, yearly aircraft utilization is not very high (about 375 hours per year). However, the tempo of operations during the day is higher, and training operations will likely require fast chargers so as not to increase the turnaround time between flights. Flight training is usually done with simple, non-complex aircraft to lower training costs. Using the baseline vehicle presented in Table 11, a flight training aircraft is likely to be similar to the Pipistrel Alpha Electro. Flight training is usually carried out in smaller and quieter airports because training at larger and busier airports creates inefficiencies given the time spent waiting for flight clearances or avoiding wake turbulence. Four airports were selected to represent the spectrum of airports supporting flight training operations. The first is Paulding Northwest Atlanta Regional Airport (CNI), a non-towered basic airport. The second is McClellan-Palomar Airport (CRQ), a tow- ered airport in a class Delta airspace and home to several flight schools. The third is Prescott Regional Airport (PRC), a towered airport in a class Delta airspace and home to a large flight training school. Finally, the fourth is Grand Fork International Airport (GFK), a larger towered airport in a class Delta airspace and home to a large flight training college. The historical and forecast activity at these four general aviation airports is provided in Figure 24 using data from the FAA. To estimate energy and power demand, some assumptions are made regarding the state of charge of the batteries, the fraction of aircraft performing flight training missions, the type

70 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies of battery chargers used, and the market penetration of electric aircraft. For this use case, the assumptions are documented below: • The limited range and endurance of electric flight training aircraft and the typical length of flight training missions imply that batteries are depleted upon landing (i.e., down to a 20 per- cent state of charge) and must be fully recharged (i.e., up to a 90 percent state of charge) for the subsequent departure. Because of the short ground turnaround time of flight training aircraft, the Pipistrel company’s fast charger, which is rated at 20 kW, is selected to recharge batteries between flights. • All but one daily battery recharge occurs between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m. The final recharge takes place at night using lower recharge power. • Owing to the nature of the airport selected, most of the operations taking place at these air- ports are assumed to be flight training operations. This is a statistically reasonable assump- tion, given the high tempo of flight training operations during the day and the lower tempo of other operations at these airports. • The market penetration is assumed to be between 20 and 100 percent. Many flight schools amortize their aircraft over a long time period, owing to low profit margins of their business. This may lead to a slow introduction of electric aircraft within the fleet of flight schools and, therefore, a low market penetration for electric aircraft. Still, the significant operating cost reductions expected with electrification could provide incentives for flight training schools to renew fleets. Figure 24. Activity at a selection of airports supporting flight training operations.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 71   Estimations indicate monthly energy needs between 8 megawatt-hours (MWh) and 40 MWh at CNI, 40 MWh and 220 MWh at CRQ, 60 MWh and 350 MWh at PRC, and 110 MWh and 620 MWh at GFK. A 50 percent market penetration for electric aircraft yields energy needs between 20 MWh at quieter airports and 300 MWh at busier airports to support flight training operations, as indicated in Figure 25. The power demand corresponding to these energy needs is provided in Figure 26. Power demand is expected between 25 kW and 150 kW at CNI, between 100 kW and 600 kW at CRQ, between 200 kW and 950 kW at PRC, and between 350 kW and 1.8 MW at GFK. A 50 percent market penetration for electric aircraft yields power demand between 75 kW and 900 kW to support flight training operations at these four airports. Personal Use Personal-use aircraft have a typical capacity of between two and six passengers. These opera- tions are usually characterized by very low utilization (about 128 hours per year). A leisure vehicle used to reach a weekend house is used twice a week, with extended periods on the ground during which the vehicle can be recharged. These vehicles do not need VTOL capability and will likely be similar to the Bye Aerospace SunFlyer 4/Eflyer 4 aircraft. A work vehicle used to com- mute every day to and from work is used significantly more but stays on the ground for extended periods of time between flights. VTOL is probably desired, but the extended time on the ground between flights is likely to be incompatible with the limited footprint of vertiports in large cities. Owing to the extensive idle periods on the ground, it is likely that batteries will be recharged directly in the aircraft using low-power chargers. This helps decrease the peak-power demand and thus the cost of electricity. Personal aircraft can be operated from any type of airport nationwide. Nonetheless, opera- tions are statistically more likely to be operated from busier local or regional airports close to large metropolitan areas. Four airports are again selected to model the wide variety of airports Figure 25. Potential electric energy requirements for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at airports supporting flight training operations.

72 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies used for personal use. Dekalb-Peachtree Airport (PDK), close to Atlanta, is a towered airport in a class Delta airspace where many personal private planes are based (more than 300 aircraft according to the FAA). Miami Executive Airport (TMB) is another large general aviation airport in a class Delta airspace and serves the southern part of the Miami metropolitan area. Teterboro Airport (TEB) is a towered general aviation relief airport in New Jersey catering mostly to general aviation traffic to and from New York City. Finally, Van Nuys Airport (VNY) is one of the largest general aviation airports in the United States. It is a towered airport in a class Delta airspace serving traffic to the San Fernando Valley section of the City of Los Angeles. The activity at these four airports is provided in Figure 27 in light blue. Non-commercial operations (i.e., non-air carrier, non-air taxi, non-commuter, and non-military) are highlighted in dark red. To estimate energy and power demand at these airports, some assumptions are made and summarized below: • The average flight time of single-engine general aviation aircraft in the United States is 43 min- utes. Given the 4-hour endurance for these aircraft, it is assumed that 18 percent of the battery is depleted after each flight. • The slower tempo of operations for personal-use aircraft implies that a slow charge of batteries can be used. For the Bye Aerospace SunFlyer 4/Eflyer 4, a slow charge lasts about 3 hours and 45 minutes to recharge the batteries fully. This means that the recharge for a 43-minute flight will last approximately 40 minutes using a 10-kW charger. • Non-commercial operations at these airports are carried out exclusively by personal-use air- craft. In reality, some of these operations are also carried out by business jets. • The market penetration is assumed to be between 20 and 100 percent. Most aircraft owners keep their aircraft for many years owing to the low utilization of personal-use aircraft. Indeed, the average age for single-engine reciprocating engine aircraft is over 35 years in the United States. As a result, electrification of the personal-use aircraft fleet may be slow unless the market is stimulated. Figure 26. Potential electric power demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at airports supporting flight training operations.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 73   Estimations based on these assumptions indicate monthly energy needs between 50 MWh and 250 MWh at PDK, between 100 MWh and 600 MWh at TMB, between 35 MWh and 175 MWh at TEB, and finally between 80 MWh and 410 MWh at VNY as indicated in Figure 28. The corresponding power demand from the electric grid is provided in Figure 29. Power demand is estimated between 150 kW and 800 kW at PDK, between 350 kW and 1,700 kW at TMB, between 100 kW and 550 kW at TEB, and between 250 kW and 1,250 kW at VNY. A 50 percent market penetration for electric aircraft yields a power demand ranging between 250 kW and 800 kW to support personal flight operations at these four airports. Commuters Commuter operations aim to connect smaller communities to the rest of the air transpor- tation network by focusing on routes between regional airports and larger hubs. Commuter aircraft are typically low-capacity and low-range aircraft, seating nine passengers and flying routes up to 250 NM. The Eviation Alice and the Ampaire Tailwind concepts are appropriate baseline vehicles for commuter operations. Electric aircraft have already been considered for commuter operations on commercial airlines such as Mokulele Airlines and Cape Air. These aircraft will probably fly alongside and eventually replace Cessna 208 and Cessna 402 on com- muter routes. Commuter airlines have high-tempo operations with short turnaround times to maximize aircraft utilization. Average turnaround times between 15 minutes and 25 minutes are frequently observed for these operations. With a MTOW typically falling between 6,000 pounds to 9,000 pounds and short turn- around times, it is unlikely that batteries can be sufficiently recharged between flights. Instead, Figure 27. Typical activity at a selection of airports (FAA, 2018).

74 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies Figure 28. Electric energy demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of airports for personal use operations. Figure 29. Electric power demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of airports for personal use operations. batteries will be swapped during the ground turnaround time with fully charged spare bat- teries. Because spare batteries are not tied to an aircraft, charging can be made at a slower pace, which will shave peaks of power demand and thus decrease the cost of electricity for the operator. Because commuter operators typically fly out of quiet regional airports to larger hubs, several airports are selected to model the diverse spectrum of airports that will support commuters. The first is Middle Georgia Regional Airport (MCN), a towered regional airport

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 75   in a class Delta airspace that is eligible to receive Essential Air Services subsidies. The second is Molokai Hoolehua Airport (MKK), a towered airport in a class Delta airspace that receives substantial traffic from commuter operators. The third is Hyannis Barnstable Airport (HYA), a towered airport in a class Delta airspace also served by commuters. Finally, the fourth air- port is Boise Air Terminal (BOI), a slightly larger airport in a class Charlie airspace that typically supports commuter and regional air services. Current and forecast activity at these airports is highlighted in Figure 30. The following assumptions were made to estimate energy and power demand: • The typical duration of commuter flights is between 45 minutes and 90 minutes. • Using 400 kW fast chargers, the battery needs between 30 minutes and 45 minutes to be recharged between flights. This is unsuitable for high-tempo commuter operations. • Battery swaps are performed to enable fast turnaround times, and batteries are recharged using 60 kW chargers throughout the day. Based on these activity forecasts, estimations indicate monthly energy needs between 500 kWh and 3 MWh at MCN, between 12 MWh and 60 MWh at MKK, between 14 MWh and 71 MWh at HYA, and finally between 3 MWh and 15 MWh at BOI (see Figure 31). The corresponding power demand from the electric grid is provided in Figure 32. Power demand is estimated between 175 kW and 200 kW at MCN, between 550 kW and 2.5 MW at MKK, between 550 kW and 3 MW at HYA, and between 175 kW and 750 kW at BOI. A 50 percent market penetration for electric aircraft yields a power demand ranging between 125 kW and 1.5 MW to support personal flight operations at these four airports. Figure 30. Activity at several regional general aviation airports (FAA, 2018).

76 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies Figure 31. Electric energy demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of airports for commuter operations. Figure 32. Electric power demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at airports for commuter operations.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 77   Regional Air Cargo Regional air cargo operations are similar to commuter operations in terms of aircraft size and average mission length. One difference is their slower tempo of operations, resulting in long ground turnaround times and reduced daily utilization. Regional cargo aircraft typically fly just a few times per day, either retrieving packages from quieter regional outstations in the late after- noon to bring them to a sorting or consolidation facility at a larger airport or bringing packages from these facilities to the outstations in the early morning. Cargo versions of the Eviation Alice and Ampaire Tailwind aircraft concepts are therefore appropriate baseline vehicles to model energy needs for regional air cargo operations. Representative airports would then be the same airports as modeled in the commuter use case, namely MCN, MKK, HYA, and finally BOI. The current and forecast activity at these four airports is provided in Figure 30. The following assumptions are made to estimate energy and power demand, as indicated below: • The typical duration of air cargo flights is between 45 minutes and 90 minutes. • Using 400 kW fast chargers, the battery can be recharged in 30 minutes to 45 minutes between flights, which is likely to be faster than needed for low-tempo operations. • A slower charger charging at 200 kW is sufficient to recharge batteries within 3 hours, which is likely to be sufficient for slow-tempo operations. This will provide at least 2 hours of flight time. Based on these activity forecasts, estimations indicate monthly energy needs between 500 kWh and 3 MWh at MCN, between 12 MWh and 60 MWh at MKK, between 14 MWh and 71 MWh at HYA, and finally between 3 MWh and 15 MWh at BOI (see Figure 33). The corresponding power demand from the electric grid is provided in Figure 34. Power demand is estimated at 200 kW at MCN. The low level of activity at MCN airport means that a single 200 kW charger is sufficient whether 20 or 80 percent of the cargo fleet is electrified. Figure 33. Electric energy demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of airports for cargo operations.

78 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies Power demand is estimated between 175 kW and 200 kW at MCN, between 550 kW and 2.5 MW at MKK, between 550 kW and 3 MW at HYA, and between 175 kW and 750 kW at BOI. A 50 percent market penetration for electric aircraft yields a power demand ranging between 200 kW and 1.6 MW to support regional air cargo operations at these four airports. Regional Airlines Regional airlines aim to connect regional airports to large national and international hubs. Regional aircraft typically seat between 35 passengers and 75 passengers and fly between 100 and 500 miles. Because of this, regional aircraft are significantly larger than commuter aircraft, and a fully electric regional aircraft is not expected to be feasible in the short term. Hybrid- electric propulsion is more likely, for which a representative aircraft for regional operations would be the UTC Project 804 Concept. The UTC Project 804 Concept features one parallel- hybrid-electric motor but a more realistic aircraft configuration would feature two identical powerplants and thus two parallel-hybrid-electric motors. Regional airlines typically fly from towered regional airports to national hubs. Four large hubs are selected to model the diverse spectrum of airports served by regional airlines. The first is Cincinnati Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG). CVG is the least busy large-hub airport in a class Bravo airspace. It used to support significant regional airline services. The second is San Francisco Interna- tional Airport (SFO), another large-size hub in a class Bravo airspace. The third is Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), one of the busiest airports in a class Bravo airspace. The fourth airport is ATL, the busiest airport in the world. Current and forecast operations from these four airports are provided in Figure 35. These assumptions were made to estimate energy and power demand: • The typical duration of a regional flight is estimated to be 1 hour. During the takeoff and climb segments (which corresponds to the first 20  minutes of the flight), the Figure 34. Electric power demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of airports for cargo operations.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 79   batteries and electric motors will provide half of the required power (4 MW), which is about 2 MW. • e high-tempo operations prevent the batteries from being recharged during the short ground turnaround time. e batteries will be swapped on the ground and replaced with fully charged batteries. • Given the battery size and a large number of regional ights at large hubs, batteries are recharged using high-power fast chargers (600 kW) to be used several times per day. is limits the inventory of expensive batteries that would be otherwise required. Based on these assumptions and activity forecasts, estimations indicate monthly energy needs between 200 MWh and 1 GWh at CVG, between 500 MWh and 2.5 GWh at SFO, between 750 MWh and 3.5 GWh at DFW, and finally between 1 GWh and 5 GWh at ATL. See Figure 36. e corresponding power demand from the electric grid is provided in Figure 37. Power demand is estimated between 550 kW and 1.75 MW at CVG, between 1.2 MW and 4.2 MW at SFO, between 1.2 MW and 5.3 MW at DFW, and between 1.8 MW and 7.2 MW at ATL. A 50 percent market penetration for electric aircra yields a power demand ranging between 1 MW and 3.0 MW to support regional air cargo operations at these four airports. Meanwhile, Table 11 provides a summary of airport use cases. Figure 35. Typical activity at large international hub airports.

80 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies Figure 36. Electric energy demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of major hub airports supporting regional aircraft operations. Figure 37. Electric power demand for different levels of electric aircraft market penetration at a selection of major hub airports supporting regional aircraft operations.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 81   Use Case Example Operation Tempo Vehicle Power Requirement Charging Infrastructure Airport Power Requirement Airport Energy Requirement Flight Training Pipistrel Alpha Electro High ~60 kW Charger @ 20 kW 25 – 1,800 kW 8 – 620 MWh Personal Use Bye Aerospace SunFlyer 4 / Eflyer 4 Low ~105 kW Charger @ 10 kW 100 – 1,700 kW 50 – 600 MWh Air Taxi Bye Aerospace SunFlyer 4 / Eflyer 4 Very High ~105 kW Super-Fast Charger @ 600 kW 100 – 1,700 kW 35 – 600 MWh Commuter Eviation Alice Very High ~260 kW Battery Swaps & Charger @ 60 kW 50 – 3,000 kW 0.5 – 70 MWh Air Cargo Eviation Alice Low ~260 kW Fast Charger @ 200 kW 200 – 3,000 kW 0.5 – 70 MWh Regional Airline UTC Project 804 High ~4 MW ~2 MW electric (50%) Battery Swaps & Super-Fast 550 – 7,200 kW 200 – 5,000 MWh Charger @ 600 kW Table 11. Use case summary. 7.2 Passenger Terminal Facilities With the emergence of electric aircraft, airports must prepare and plan on how to integrate these new aircraft into airport facilities. Although these aircraft’s shape or size will not funda- mentally impact existing infrastructure, they might change some airlines’ flight business model and the aviation demand, which will indirectly impact passenger terminals. U.S. airports and their passenger terminals could experience consequences similar to those experienced after the airline deregulation in the 1970s. This similarity stems from the potential significant rise in pas- senger traffic at airport terminals when more electric aircraft, especially for air taxis, are intro- duced requiring the terminal facilities to accommodate such traffic. Passenger Traffic The market assessment forecast projects small electric fleet sizes during the 2020–2030 period. Thus, any increase in passenger traffic during this time will likely not be directly attributable to electric aviation. However, longer-term impacts are expected with electric aviation’s anticipated maturation and proliferation beyond 2030. Driven by lower operating costs and increasingly eco-minded aviation industry, widespread use of electrified aircraft could allow carriers to offer lower priced flight services by passing operational savings to the customer if these lower oper- ating costs are confirmed. This savings has the long-term potential to trigger an uptick in airport passenger throughput as ridership increases, especially on metropolitan UAM and point-to-point regional flights (regional air mobility), which could be the first to be operated with electric aircraft. Electric avia- tion could facilitate new regional air mobility with smaller aircraft (2 to 20 seaters) being used for rapid connectivity between small communities as well as from these communities to larger metropolitan areas—not without analogies with the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) vision of the FAA in the 1990s.

82 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies (Re)emergence of Regional Airports An increase in the regional flight demand at some airports at the 2030 horizon would require adapting the passenger terminal facilities to accommodate such demand. This trend could be comparable to the boom of regional aviation at the end of the 20th century that triggered the development of simplified facilities dedicated to short-haul domestic flights. These regional terminals have been often redeveloped to accommodate larger aircraft types due to the industry’s transition from turboprops (e.g., ATR72 and Dash-8) and small regional jet aircraft (e.g., CRJ 200 and ERJ 145) to small medium-size airliners (e.g., A220 and E190). Most early electric aircraft are expected to seat up to a dozen passengers. Cape Air, a regional airline, provides a good example of how air carriers could use these early electric aircraft to provide regional mobility. Cape Air operates mainly Cessna 402s and is transitioning to the Tecnam P2012 Traveler, which are both nine-passenger piston-engine planes. Cape Air operates Essential Air Services routes and other short-haul commercial flights (e.g., to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts), and it has various interline and codeshare agreements with larger air carriers. At BOS, Cape Air operates 20 to 30 flights per day from JetBlue’s Terminal C. Passengers board and deplane onto the apron without a jet bridge. A similar process exists at other hub airports Cape Air serves, such as STL. Accommodating this additional traffic calls for specific discussions at the planning level. A renewal of smaller point-to-point regional mobility with small commuter aircraft might be accommodated on remote ramps or “non-contact” gates (i.e., without jet bridges). Passengers 1978 Airline Deregulation Act Impacts on Passenger Terminal Facilities The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 saw the removal of the U.S. government control over the airline market, resulting in the lifted restrictions on where airlines could fly and changing airlines strategies, with the emergence of hub airports. Passenger terminals were immediately impacted by this Act: • The deregulation kept more aircraft flying, which resulted in increased passenger loads. • One issue was for airlines to determine if they could obtain an adequate or sufficient passenger terminal facility at airports because of limited airport access. • There was a significant concern for allocation and terminal expansion of air- port passenger terminal facilities. • The airports tried to efficiently allocate the fixed amount of terminal space. • Some airports, to accommodate new entrants, constructed additional terminal facilities. • One airport that the Airline Deregulation Act affected was Newark Airport (EWR). – According to the United States General Accounting Office Airline Deregulation Report, EWR saw a 140 percent increase in total departures after the Deregulation Act was established. – EWR, underutilized in the 1970s, underwent a significant expansion in the 1980s and 1990s including the construction of Terminal C, to accommodate and keep up with the increase in passengers and flight travel.

Impact of Electric Aviation on the Demand 83   typically walk to the hold room and then walk to the plane on foot. Most of the time, passengers must take stairs or elevators to descend from the main terminal floor to the ramp level. Some airports have provided canopies from the terminal building to the aircraft stand (e.g., former regional jet gates at JFK Terminal 2), but passengers are often exposed to outside weather conditions. While such processes are typical at smaller airports, many larger hub airports are getting rid of them because of the inferior passenger experience they provide. The re-emergence of smaller regional aircraft under electrification could prompt the passenger journey to be reimagined. Lessons from the past and abroad include canopies that protect the aircraft and passengers from adverse weather (e.g., former Pan Am Worldport Terminal 3 at JFK), as well as ground-level boarding stairs providing high-end experience (e.g., Infraero’s ELO boarding/ deplaning connector in Brazil). Some of these developments might be achieved through cost and risk sharing with fellow regional operators. In particular, smaller airports might need these partnerships to fund new terminal capacities and to develop additional services for passengers. Regional Air Mobility Current trends show that smaller airports will be the first ones to integrate electric aircraft. Often underutilized today, they should be seen as community resources and can become real assets with the emergence of urban and regional air mobility with electric aviation. Indeed, with globalization and industrialization, societies are growing and expanding to facilitate the connectivity of their territory with the rest of the world for the movement of goods and people. The transportation network is one of the keys to this connectivity, and electric air- craft would become a new mode of transportation. With all the variety of transportation, from ground to air, communities are not only looking for new routes but also to connect all these transport modes. As explained previously, the earliest electric aircraft will have a small capacity and will be more adapted to regional mobility. In addition, these aircraft would provide more flexibility to connect and transit to other transportation modes, such as transportation network companies (TNCs) or UAM. Smaller airports might become local multimodal transportation and cargo hubs with interconnection to all these transportation modes. The existing infrastruc- ture already exists and will prevent overinvesting in new capacities that would pass along the cost to users ultimately. 7.3 Lessons Learned from the Small Aircraft Transportation System In the early 2000s, NASA’s Office of Aerospace Technology initiated SATS, a 5-year research program created to enhance intercity, intra-regional connectivity of communities, by relieving congestion issues of existing transportation systems. The SATS concept aimed to attract users who make transportation choices based mostly on time considerations and targeted regional transportation markets. Funded with $69 million from 2001 to 2006, NASA’s SATS research program was conceived to: • Increase the safety and utility of operations at small airports lacking traffic control towers, radar surveillance, or other conventional ground-based means of monitoring and safely sepa- rating aircraft traffic in the terminal airspace and on runways and taxiways. • Allow more dependable use of small airports lacking instrument landing systems or other ground-based navigation systems that are now required for many night-time and low- visibility landings.

84 Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies • Improve the ability of single-piloted aircraft to operate safely in complex airspace (that is, at airports and in airways with many and diverse operators). This bold vision of a new transportation system was based on the concept of operations of on-demand and point-to-point routes, and the use of advanced, small fixed-wing aircraft—of a size common in general aviation (4 to 10 passengers)—for personal or business transporta- tion between small communities. The new generation of small aircraft was intended to provide “jet-taxi services,” and to operate on small regional, reliever, and general aviation airports, or even other landing facilities, including heliports. To support SATS, NASA developed new technologies for travel planning and scheduling and selected a variety of airports in Virginia to conduct flight research and demonstrations. The goal of the project was to deploy SATS operating capabilities within the NAS, ultimately over 18,000 landing facilities in the United States. The main limitations of the concept were that it excluded urban areas and urban transporta- tion, and the majority of the U.S. population and business is located in metropolitan areas, which are most likely to travel by air, due to higher-income households. Moreover, the main competitor of SATS was the automobile, which is part of a transportation mode that was already well imple- mented and more accessible for most users. Lastly, the costs of traveling were a major obstacle to SATS expansion, even though SATS targeted users valuing the time saved with air mobility. In 2002, the TRB published a special report on the SATS program: Special Report 236: Future Flight: A Review of the Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept. The document identified potential obstacles that could compromise the realization of SATS: • Lack of evidence that SATS aircraft would have been affordable for use by the general public. • Lack of attractiveness for users if the concept was not deployed in the nation’s major metro- politan areas. • Potential high costs, that would exclude users that are price-sensitive, and who make most intercity trips. • Potential obstacles for SATS deployment due to infrastructure limitations and environmental concerns at small airports. • Success of SATS relied mainly upon the development and deployment of new technologies, which would take time. • Potential undesirable outcomes, such as environmental issues, impacts to natural resources in the vicinity of airports, etc. SATS can be seen as a first tentative conceptualization of regional air mobility. This program brought to light meaningful lessons for advanced air mobility, and 20 years after the TRB report on SATS, AAM might be developing the capacity to remove these obstacles by resolving the technological and environmental concerns that the initial SATS concept raised. Prospective operators are targeting both major cities with UAM and networks of interconnected communities with regional air mobility. AAM will have to deliver its promise of lower operating costs and fares. Last but not least, aircraft/airport compatibility issues must be addressed proactively in the field, ahead of effective implementation of these mobility services.

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Design innovation for electrically powered and hybrid-electric aircraft is accelerating rapidly. While there are many potential benefits of electric aircraft and hydrogen technologies, not all air service can be replaced by electrically powered aircraft in the near term.

The TRB Airport Cooperative Research Program's ACRP Research Report 236: Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies offers an introduction to the emerging electric aircraft industry, gives estimates of potential market growth, and provides guidance to help airports estimate the potential impacts of electric aircraft on their facilities and to be prepared to accommodate them.

A series of appendices provides details on the assumptions and methods used in the research as well as helpful references for airport planning.

Accompanying this report is a toolkit (including instructions for how to use the toolkit) that includes a database of more than 100 electric aircraft and may be used by airports to estimate future electric power requirements at their airport based on local characteristics, such as climate, aviation activity levels, and existing electrical demand.

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