National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035

Becoming a 21st-Century Force

VOLUME 9 Modeling and Simulation

Panel on Modeling and Simulation

Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces

Naval Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

This work was performed under Department of the Navy Contract N00014-96-D-0169/0001 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred.

The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do.

Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Copies available from:

Naval Studies Board

National Research Council

2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20418

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

PANEL ON MODELING AND SIMULATION

GEORGE F. CARRIER,

Harvard University,

Chair

PAUL K. DAVIS,

RAND and the RAND Graduate School,

Vice Chair

DONALD K. BLUMENTHAL,

Gualala, California

RICHARD BRONOWITZ,

Center for Naval Analyses

JOHN C. DOYLE,

California Institute of Technology

DONALD P. GAVER,

Naval Postgraduate School

DON E. HIHN,

Charleston, South Carolina

RICHARD J. IVANETICH,

Institute for Defense Analyses

JOHN P. LEHOCZKY,

Carnegie Mellon University

DAVID L. McDOWELL,

Georgia Institute of Technology

DUNCAN C. MILLER,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

DAVID R. OLIVER,

Northrop Grumman Corporation

GABRIEL ROBINS,

University of Virginia

BERNARD P. ZEIGLER,

University of Arizona

Invited Participant

BEN P. WISE,

Science Applications International Corporation

Navy Liaison Representatives

CDR THOMAS COSGROVE,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N858D

CAPT JAY KISTLER,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N6M

Consultants

LEE M. HUNT

SIDNEY G. REED, JR.

JAMES G. WILSON

Staff

RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director,

Naval Studies Board

PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer

SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant

MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer

CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR FUTURE NAVAL FORCES

DAVID R. HEEBNER,

Science Applications International Corporation (retired),

Study Director

ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR.,

The Baciocco Group, Inc.

ALAN BERMAN,

Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University

NORMAN E. BETAQUE,

Logistics Management Institute

GERALD A. CANN,

Raytheon Company

GEORGE F. CARRIER,

Harvard University

SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN,

Institute for Defense Analyses (retired)

ALEXANDER FLAX,

Potomac, Maryland

WILLIAM J. MORAN,

Redwood City, California

ROBERT J. MURRAY,

Center for Naval Analyses

ROBERT B. OAKLEY,

National Defense University

JOSEPH B. REAGAN,

Saratoga, California

VINCENT VITTO,

Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Navy Liaison Representatives

RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR.,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)

VADM THOMAS B. FARGO,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996)

RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91

CDR DOUGLASS BIESEL,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N812C1

PAUL G. BLATCH,

Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E

Marine Corps Liaison Representative

LtGen

PAUL K. VAN RIPER,

USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command

Consultants

LEE M. HUNT

SIDNEY G. REED, JR.

JAMES G. WILSON

Staff

RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director,

Naval Studies Board

PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer

SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant

MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer

CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

NAVAL STUDIES BOARD

DAVID R. HEEBNER,

Science Applications International Corporation (retired),

Chair

GEORGE M. WHITESIDES,

Harvard University,

Vice Chair

ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR.,

The Baciocco Group, Inc.

ALAN BERMAN,

Center for Naval Analyses

NORMAN E. BETAQUE,

Logistics Management Institute

NORVAL L. BROOME,

Mitre Corporation

GERALD A. CANN,

Raytheon Company

SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN,

Institute for Defense Analyses (retired),

Special Advisor

ANTHONY J. DeMARIA,

DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc.

JOHN F. EGAN,

Lockheed Martin Corporation

ROBERT HUMMEL,

Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University

DAVID W. McCALL,

Far Hills, New Jersey

ROBERT J. MURRAY,

Center for Naval Analyses

ROBERT B. OAKLEY,

National Defense University

WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS,

Northstar Associates, Inc.

MARA G. PRENTISS,

Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University

HERBERT RABIN,

University of Maryland

JULIE JCH RYAN,

Booz, Allen and Hamilton

HARRISON SHULL,

Monterey, California

KEITH A. SMITH,

Vienna, Virginia

ROBERT C. SPINDEL,

Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

DAVID L. STANFORD,

Science Applications International Corporation

H. GREGORY TORNATORE,

Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University

J. PACE VanDEVENDER,

Prosperity Institute

VINCENT VITTO,

Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

BRUCE WALD,

Arlington Education Consultants

Navy Liaison Representatives

RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR.,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)

VADM THOMAS B. FARGO,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996)

RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL,

USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91

RONALD N. KOSTOFF,

Office of Naval Research

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

Marine Corps Liaison Representative

LtGen

PAUL K. VAN RIPER,

USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command

RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director

PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer

SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant

MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer

CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS

ROBERT J. HERMANN,

United Technologies Corporation,

Co-Chair

W. CARL LINEBERGER,

University of Colorado,

Co-Chair

PETER M. BANKS,

Environmental Research Institute of Michigan

LAWRENCE D. BROWN,

University of Pennsylvania

RONALD G. DOUGLAS,

Texas A&M University

JOHN E. ESTES,

University of California at Santa Barbara

L. LOUIS HEGEDUS,

Elf Atochem North America, Inc.

JOHN E. HOPCROFT,

Cornell University

RHONDA J. HUGHES,

Bryn Mawr College

SHIRLEY A. JACKSON,

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

KENNETH H. KELLER,

University of Minnesota

KENNETH I. KELLERMANN,

National Radio Astronomy Observatory

MARGARET G. KIVELSON,

University of California at Los Angeles

DANIEL KLEPPNER,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN KREICK,

Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company

MARSHA I. LESTER,

University of Pennsylvania

THOMAS A. PRINCE,

California Institute of Technology

NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS,

Brookhaven National Laboratory

L.E. SCRIVEN,

University of Minnesota

SHMUEL WINOGRAD,

IBM T.J. Watson Research Center

CHARLES A. ZRAKET,

Mitre Corporation (retired)

NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

Preface

This report is part of the nine-volume series entitled Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force. The series is the product of an 18-month study requested by the Chief of Naval Operations, who, in a memorandum on November 28, 1995, asked the National Research Council to initiate through its Naval Studies Board a thorough examination of the impact of advancing technology on the form and capability of the naval forces to the year 2035. To carry out this study, eight technical panels were organized under the committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces to examine all of the specific technical areas called out in the terms of reference.

The study's terms of reference (Appendix A) asked for an identification of “present and emerging technologies that relate to the full breadth of Navy and Marine Corps mission capabilities,” with specific attention to “(1) information warfare, electronic warfare, and the use of surveillance assets; (2) mine warfare and submarine warfare; (3) Navy and Marine Corps weaponry in the context of effectiveness on target; [and] (4) issues in caring for and maximizing effectiveness of Navy and Marine Corps human resources.” The terms of reference went on to identify 10 technical areas for special attention. One involved modeling and simulation (M&S): “The naval service is increasingly dependent upon modeling and simulation. The study should review the overall architecture of models and simulation in the DoD (DoN, JCS, and OSD), the ability of the models to represent real world situations, and their merits as tools upon which to make technical and force composition decisions. ”

It was against this background that the Panel on Modeling and Simulation was constituted and asked to develop the present report. Upon reviewing the terms of reference and defining a feasible scope of work, the panel noted that

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

recent documents (some of them produced after the terms of reference were created) already provide a reasonable architecture-level survey of the Defense Department's M&S, as well as a vision statement. In particular, the Office of the Secretary of Defense's (OSD's) Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) has developed a substantial Master Plan for M&S, the purpose of which is to establish a common technical framework for DOD's M&S. 1 Given this body of existing material, the panel focused its efforts on key issues that have previously received little or insufficient attention. The objectives the panel set for itself, then, were (1) to clarify why the Department of the Navy leadership should care and be concerned about the substantive content and comprehensibility of M&S; (2) to assess what the Navy Department (and DOD) may need to do to benefit fully from the opportunities presented by M&S technology; (3) to clarify what M&S can and cannot be expected to accomplish in aiding decisions on technical, force-composition, and operations planning issues; and (4) to present priorities for M&S-related research.

The panel made no attempt to conduct a full survey of M&S relevant to the Department of the Navy. Much of the report deals with large-scale joint models such as those used in campaign planning, the evaluation of systems and new doctrinal concepts, or joint training —e.g., M&S such as the Joint Warfare System (JWARS) and the Joint Simulation System (JSIMS) systems now under development. The report has less to say about engineering- or engagement-level models, although it discusses the important role of simulation-based acquisition. Finally, this report is not a “forecast,” nor does it lay out “roadmaps” for what should be done decade by decade for the next 40 years. Instead, the panel has chosen to focus on a chronic problem that took many years to develop and will take many years to deal with effectively—the lack of a good military-science research foundation on which to base the modeling and simulation that it so much depends on—and on priorities for remedying that problem over the years ahead.

Panel membership included experts in the research for and development and application of modeling and simulation, in both defense and nondefense domains. It also included experts in force planning; operations planning; applied mathematics, including probability and statistics; modeling and simulation theory; physics, including statistical mechanics; control theory; computer science; electrical engineering; operations research; gaming; and strategic planning.

The panel met eight times to receive briefings from Service and industry

1  

See Defense Modeling and Simulation Office. 1995a. Department of Defense Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Master Plan, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, Washington, D.C., October; Kaminski, Paul G., Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology. 1996. “DMSO ‘Modeling and Simulation, '” Keynote address at DOD Fifth Annual Industry Briefing, Alexandria, Va., May 22; and other materials—both formal and informal—available from the DMSO or the DMSO 's World Wide Web site at http://www.dmso.mil .

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

representatives, visit facilities, deliberate, and draft its report. It also participated in the three plenary meetings for the overall study. The first plenary meeting, in March 1996, established organization and a common starting point for the entire study. It included presentations by the Chief of Naval Operations and other high-level officials of the Navy Department, the other Services, the Defense Department, and industry. The subsequent plenaries were for drafting, comparison and integration across panels, the working out of cross-cutting issues, and synthesis (reflected primarily in Volume 1: Overview). The result follows. The report (which consists of a summary, the main report, and a set of appendixes) discusses modeling and simulation as a foundation technology for many developments that will be central to the Department of the Navy and Department of Defense over the next 3 to 4 decades.

The panel report is, of course, a product of the whole. However, the Vice Chair, Paul Davis, organized and led report preparation. He and Richard Ivanetich also compiled the panel's work and briefed it to study leadership along the way.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

Acknowledgments

The Panel on Modeling and Simulation is indebted to many people who provided briefings, scientific papers, or discussion time. It gives special thanks to Darryl Morgeson and Chris Barrett of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Jeff Grossman of the Naval Research and Development Laboratory (NRaD), Les Parrish of SPAWAR, Bill Stevens and Jeff Steinman of Metron, Inc., Henson Graves of Lockheed Martin, Tom Skillman of Boeing, Timothy Horrigan of Horrigan Analytics, CDR Dennis McBride, USN, of the Office of Naval Research, and Wayne Hughes of the Naval Postgraduate School. CAPT Jay Kistler, USN, was the panel's contact with the Navy, the study's sponsor. Both he and CDR McBride provided useful briefings and contacts.

The panel also acknowledges RAND's courtesy in supplying several of the figures used to illustrate concepts discussed in the report.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×
This page in the original is blank.
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×

 4

 

DEALING WITH AND IMPROVING DOD'S M&S

 

49

   

 Significance of the Issues,

 

49

   

 The Multifaceted Nature of Model Quality,

 

51

   

 Uncertainty as a Core Reality in Building and Using Models,

 

51

   

 Approaches to Dealing with Uncertainty,

 

55

   

 “Doing Better” on Model Content: Need for Managerial Changes, Not Just Token Exhortation,

 

55

   

 Verification, Validation, and Accreditation,

 

57

 5

 

FOCUSING WARFARE RESEARCH AND IMPROVING M&S

 

62

   

 Background,

 

62

   

 Prioritizing Warfare Subjects for Research,

 

65

   

 Desired Attributes of Research Programs,

 

65

 6

 

CREATING AND IMPROVING INTELLECTUAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR M&S

 

70

   

 KEY TECHNICAL PROBLEMS REQUIRING INVESTMENT,

 

70

   

 Hierarchically Integrated Families of Models,

 

70

   

 M&S Infrastructure,

 

77

   

 Repositories and Model Integration,

 

83

   

 Advanced Environments and High-level Languages for M&S,

 

83

   

 Recommendations on Joint Models,

 

85

   

 Recommendations for Research,

 

88

 7

 

CHALLENGES IN ASSIMILATING AND EXPLOITING M&S TECHNOLOGY

 

91

   

 Traditional Challenges,

 

91

   

 Implications for the Navy,

 

91

   

 A Background of Leadership Aloofness from M&S,

 

93

   

 New Circumstances and the Need for Technology-driven Attitude Changes,

 

94

   

 Issues for the Department of the Navy,

 

95

 

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

 

101

 

 

APPENDIXES

 
   

A  TERMS OF REFERENCE

 

111

   

B  VIRTUAL ENGINEERING: TOWARD A THEORY FOR MODELING AND SIMULATION OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS
John Doyle, California Institute of Technology

 

116

Page xviii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
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×
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×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×
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×
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×
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×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force: Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5869.
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