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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
×

Funding a Revolution

Government Support for Computing Research

Committee on Innovations in Computing and Communications: Lessons from History

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1999

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under grant EIA-9529482. Additional support was provided by the Association for Computing Machinery and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' Computer Society. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-88131

International Standard Book Number 0-309-06278-0

Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
(http://www.nap.edu) 2101 Constitution Ave., NW, Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area)

Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
×

COMMITTEE ON INNOVATIONS IN COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS: LESSONS FROM HISTORY

THOMAS HUGHES,

University of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Chair

GWEN BELL,

The Computer Museum

ERICH BLOCH,

Council on Competitiveness

ROBERT BRESSLER,

Sun Microsystems, Inc.

PAUL DAVID,

Oxford University and Stanford University

MARVIN DENICOFF,

Office of Naval Research (retired)

DAVID HOUNSHELL,

Carnegie Mellon University

AMOS E. JOEL, JR.,

Lucent Technologies, Inc. (retired)

TIMOTHY LENOIR,

Stanford University

DOUGLAS McILROY,

Dartmouth College

EMERSON PUGH,

IBM Corporation (retired)

CHARLES SEITZ,

Myricom Corporation

CHARLES THACKER,

Microsoft Corporation

Special Advisor

DANIEL J. KEVLES,

California Institute of Technology

Staff

JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Senior Program Officer (study director after February 1997)

MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director (study director through February 1997)

DAVID MINDELL, CSTB Consultant

JED GORDON, Research Aide

LESLIE M. WADE, Research Assistant (through March 1997)

DAVID PADGHAM, Project Assistant (starting August 1998)

MICKELLE RODGERS, Project Assistant (through August 1998)

SYNOD P. BOYD, Project Assistant (through December 1997)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD

DAVID D. CLARK,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Chair

FRANCES E. ALLEN,

IBM T.J. Watson Research Center

JAMES CHIDDIX,

Time Warner Cable

JEFF DOZIER,

University of California at Santa Barbara

A.G. (SANDY) FRASER,

AT&T Corporation

SUSAN L. GRAHAM,

University of California at Berkeley

JAMES GRAY,

Microsoft Corporation

BARBARA J. GROSZ,

Harvard University

PATRICK HANRAHAN,

Stanford University

JUDITH HEMPEL,

University of California at San Francisco

DEBORAH A. JOSEPH,

University of Wisconsin

BUTLER W. LAMPSON,

Microsoft Corporation

EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA,

University of Washington

DAVID LIDDLE,

Interval Research

BARBARA H. LISKOV,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN MAJOR,

QUALCOMM Incorporated

DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT,

University of California at Berkeley

DONALD NORMAN,

Nielsen Norman Group

RAYMOND OZZIE,

Groove Networks

DONALD SIMBORG,

KnowMed Systems

LESLIE L. VADASZ,

Intel Corporation

Staff

MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director

JANE BORTNICK GRIFFITH, Interim Director, 1998

HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Scientist

JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Senior Program Officer

ALAN INOUYE, Program Officer

JON EISENBERG, Program Officer

JANET BRISCOE, Administrative Associate

NICCI DOWD, Project Assistant

RITA GASKINS, Project Assistant

DAVID PADGHAM, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS

PETER M. BANKS,

ERIM International, Inc.,

Co-chair

W. CARL LINEBERGER,

University of Colorado,

Co-chair

WILLIAM BROWDER,

Princeton University

LAWRENCE D. BROWN,

University of Pennsylvania

MARSHALL H. COHEN,

California Institute of Technology

RONALD G. DOUGLAS,

Texas A&M University

JOHN E. ESTES,

University of California at Santa Barbara

JERRY P. GOLLUB,

Haverford College

MARTHA P. HAYNES,

Cornell University

JOHN L. HENNESSY,

Stanford University

CAROL M. JANTZEN,

Westinghouse Savannah River Company

PAUL G. KAMINSKI,

Technovation, Inc.

KENNETH H. KELLER,

University of Minnesota

MARGARET G. KIVELSON,

University of California at Los Angeles

DANIEL KLEPPNER,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN R. KREICK,

Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company

MARSHA I. LESTER,

University of Pennsylvania

M. ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL,

Stanford University

NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS,

Brookhaven National Laboratory

CHANG-LIN TIEN,

University of California at Berkeley

NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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PREFACE

Computing technology is widely touted as fast moving. Generations of products and their underlying electronics are introduced at intervals of 18 to 24 months, and the number and variety of computer- and communications-based goods and services are growing. Technology and industry experts believe that the double-digit rates of improvement experienced in the last couple of decades can be sustained for computer-based technologies over at least another decade if appropriate investments are made, but it is not clear what those investments should be and on what they depend. Similarly, there is little understanding of how to relate a seemingly strong and steady flow of new technology to the slower and more diffuse processes of assimilating new technology into the economy.

As described in Evolving the High-Performance Computing and Communications Initiative to Support the Nation's Information Infrastructure, also known as the Brooks-Sutherland report,1 part of the reason for the tremendous advances in information technology since World War II has been the extraordinarily productive interplay of federally funded university research, federally and privately funded industrial research, and entrepreneurial companies founded and staffed by people who moved back and forth between universities and industry. To a degree that appears

1  

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB), National Research Council. 1995. Evolving the High Performance Computing and Communications Initiative to Support the Nation's Information Infrastructure. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

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uncommon in all but a few other disciplines, there has been a mix of people and ideas that highlights the limitations of the linear model of innovation, which posits that innovation proceeds sequentially from laboratory research to product development to manufacturing and sales. The dynamic nature of the process is evidenced by the fact that many of today's leading computer technology firms did not exist 20 years ago; many innovative firms that did exist have failed as businesses, but their innovations have endured or become the bases for subsequent developments; many familiar products and businesses can be traced back to federally funded research, often conducted at universities; and the ebb and flow of individual firms is fueled by the movement of people among universities, government laboratories, and private companies. Understanding this interplay and the ways the private sector has leveraged publicly funded activities is important for sustaining success in this arena. Understanding the changes in these elements—such as downward pressures on research support in industry and government—and the potential implications of such change is important for directing federal research and development efforts.

The Committee and Its Charge

To better understand these issues, the National Science Foundation (NSF), along with the Association for Computing Machinery and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, asked the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) of the National Research Council to initiate a study of lessons to be learned from the history of innovation in computing and communications technology. The committee was charged to expand on the analysis in the Brooks-Sutherland report to understand the way federal research funding affects the economy and creates new industries. The study was to address questions such as the following:

  • How did the U.S. computing and communications industries achieve developmental fertility? On what have they built, and on what does their continuation depend?
  • What are the interactions among players in academia, government, and industry? What is special or unique about these players and interactions compared to other technologies? Where are the frictions—where have the interactions foundered, and why?
  • How can success be calibrated? How often are there unexpected successes and how well are they tracked? What are notable instances of failure, what were the underlying factors, and what has been learned? How well can we assess causality, as opposed to associations?
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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  • What are the key lags, to what are they attributable, and how constant are they? How long does it take for an advance to show up as a commercial product—and how long does it take from commercial introduction to market acceptance?

To conduct this study, CSTB assembled a committee of 13 members and one special advisor with experience in both computing and communications technology and relevant social sciences. Members included (1) individuals involved in developing key computer and communications technologies who had experience in academic research, government research and development, and industrial research, development, and commercialization and (2) economists, historians, sociologists, and others with insight into the history of technology and the analysis of economic impacts of technology. This was a project in which experience, judgment, and expert interpretation were needed to produce balanced presentations of events and formulation of lessons. The study was strengthened by involving social science experts in relevant forms of data gathering, analysis, and interpretation.

The committee met six times between July 1996 and June 1998 to plan its course of action, meet with relevant experts, deliberate over its findings, draft its final report, and respond to reviewer comments. In order to combine a broad understanding of the major trends in computing and communications with more in-depth knowledge of particular fields and innovations, the committee took a two-pronged approach to the study. First, it examined the broad history of computing and communications, extending from early attempts to design and build computers in the post-World War II era to the present. The goal was not to document each innovation in computing and communications, but rather to identify the key trends in each historical era and identify the primary government activities that contributed to the industries' development. Data were gathered on federal and industrial funding levels for research and development in computing technology, as well as investments in research infrastructure and human resources.

Second, the committee developed case studies of five specific areas: relational databases, the development of the Internet and the World Wide Web, theoretical computer science, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality. These areas were selected because of the expertise of individual committee members and because they were believed to represent a broad range of federal roles in the innovation process. The case studies were not intended to be exhaustive histories of the topics investigated, but rather to provide illustrative examples that could inform the committee's attempt to discern lessons regarding the role of federal research funding in computing. As a result, they differ significantly in length, structure, and tone.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
×

Nevertheless, the committee derived overarching themes from seemingly discrete events regarding the relationship between public and private investment, the roles of federal research funding in stimulating innovation, and characteristics of effective government support for research.

Additional information for the study was gathered through a series of interviews with key leaders in federal science and technology policy making and in computing research: Claude Barfield (American Enterprise Institute), Gordon Bell (formerly with the National Science Foundation), George Brown (U.S. House of Representatives), Mel Ciment (National Science Foundation), Fernando Corbato (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Tice DeYoung (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), Howard Frank (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), Juris Hartmanis (National Science Foundation), Charles Holland (Air Force Office of Scientific Research), Anita K. Jones (Department of Defense), John Lehmann (National Science Foundation), John Machado (Naval Electronic Systems Command), Steven Squires (Corporation for National Research Initiatives), John Toole (National Coordination Office for Computing, Information, and Communications), Bruce Waxman (University Research Foundation), Gilbert Weigand (Department of Energy), and Patrick Winston (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). These interviews provided considerable guidance on policy debates surrounding federal funding of research and served to inform the committee's evolving set of conclusions. The interviews revealed a broad consensus regarding the importance of the federal government in funding research in computing and communications. Regardless of their political affiliations and different roles in the research enterprise, the experts interviewed for this study confirmed the value of federal funding in computing research, especially federal support for university research.

This report attempts to summarize, as concisely as possible, the main conclusions of the study while providing needed justification and support. As such, this report is not a comprehensive history of computing, nor is it a complete accounting of federal involvement in computing. Rather, it provides an overview of the innovation process in computing technology based on a select set of seemingly representative examples and buttressed by more comprehensive data. The lessons derived regarding the federal role in computing and communications will, it is hoped, provide relevant guidance for continued efforts in these fields.

Acknowledgments

This report represents the cumulative and cooperative efforts of many people. The study committee, itself a blend of technologists, historians, and social scientists, worked tirelessly to overcome differences in cultural

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
×

perspectives and predilections to form a more unified view of the history of computing and the government's role in supporting it. Committee members' contributions to the case studies and their deliberations formed the backbone of this project. Special thanks are due to David Mindell, assistant professor in the Science, Technology, and Society (STS) program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), who as a consultant to this project assisted in all aspects of its development—helping to define the study and its scope, participating in committee discussions, and drafting sections of the final document. Jed Gordon, an undergraduate in the STS program at MIT, played a key role in collecting and analyzing data on the contributions of various government organizations to computing research and in writing brief histories of specific federal research programs, such as Project Whirlwind and Project MAC. He also analyzed federal statistics on research funding in computing and educational support of computer science students. Hui Zeng, a graduate student in computer science at George Mason University, assisted in compiling and analyzing information about federal funding of computing research and development of human resources. Laura Ost, editor-consultant, helped to turn the original manuscript into a readable text.

Beyond those directly affiliated with the project were many others who contributed valuable information to the report. Jennifer Sue Bond, John Jankowski, Margaret Machen, Ronald Meeks, and Raymond Wolf at NSF were instrumental in providing a wide range of data on federal and industrial support for computing and communications. John Lehmann at NSF opened his historical files to the committee, making available a wealth of information about NSF programs in computing and communications. David Gries at Cornell University provided historical data from the Taulbee surveys, tracking the growth of academic computer science activities. Francis Narin and Anthony Breitzman at CHI Research, Inc., generated special tabulations of patent and citation data in computing. John Warwick, a computer science student at Carnegie Mellon University, built a Web crawler to gather data on U.S. patents in artificial intelligence. Margaret Taylor of Carnegie Mellon University's Department of Engineering and Public Policy helped to design the search and to sort and analyze the data.

The committee is also grateful to those who took time to meet with its members and provide relevant briefings: John Alic (then with the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies), Paul Ceruzzi (National Air and Space Museum), Kenneth Flamm (Brookings Institution), John Hennessy (Stanford University), Robert Kahn (Corporation for National Research Initiatives), Nils Nilsen (Stanford University), Paul Romer (Stanford University), Ivan Sutherland (Sun Microsystems, Inc.), and William Wulf (National Academy of Engineering). Their input pro-

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
×

vided basic historical material upon which the committee could draw and helped to create a framework for interpreting historical information.

Finally, special thanks are due to Paul Young and John Cherniavsky from NSF, whose insight, interest, and support made this project possible.

THOMAS HUGHES, CHAIR

COMMITTEE ON INNOVATIONS IN COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS: LESSONS FROM HISTORY

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS

This report was reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

Robert Aaron, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired),

John Armstrong, IBM Corporation (retired),

William Aspray, Computing Research Associates,

Daniel Bobrow, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center,

Lewis N. Branscomb, Harvard University,

Donald Chamberlin, IBM Almaden Research Center,

Lynn Conway, University of Michigan,

Stephen Cook, University of Toronto,

John L. Hennessy, Stanford University,

Richard Herman, University of Maryland,

Robert Lucky, Bellcore,

Arthur Norberg, University of Minnesota,

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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Fernando Pereira, AT&T Laboratories Research,

Alex Roland, Duke University,

Richard Rosenbloom, Harvard University,

Herbert Simon, Carnegie Mellon University,

Ivan Sutherland, Sun Microsystems, Inc.,

John Swets, BBN Corporation, and

Keith Uncapher, Corporation for Networking Research Initiatives.

Although the individuals listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the study committee and the NRC.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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Common Pool Problems, Patent Races, and Potential Overinvestment in R&D

 

45

   

The Benefits of Public Support of Research

 

46

   

Direct Contributions to the Scientific Knowledge Base

 

47

   

Indirect Effects of Government-sponsored Research

 

49

   

Intellectual Assistance

 

49

   

Research as Training

 

50

   

Notes

 

51

3

 

Federal Support for Research Infrastructure

 

52

   

Federal Research Funding

 

53

   

Levels of Federal Support

 

53

   

Sources of Federal Support

 

55

   

Comparisons to Industrial Research Funding

 

59

   

Human Resources

 

62

   

Computer Facilities

 

71

   

University Computing Centers

 

73

   

Departmental Computing

 

74

   

High-performance Computing

 

76

   

Network Infrastructure

 

77

   

Effects of Federal Investments in Research Infrastructure

 

79

   

Conclusion

 

81

   

Notes

 

81

4

 

The Organization of Federal Support: A Historical Review

 

85

   

1945-1960: Era of Government Computers

 

86

   

The Government's Early Role

 

87

   

Establishment of Organizations

 

88

   

Military Research Offices

 

88

   

National Bureau of Standards

 

89

   

Atomic Energy Commission

 

90

   

Private Organizations

 

91

   

Observations

 

95

   

1960-1970: Supporting a Continuing Revolution

 

96

   

Maturing of a Commercial Industry

 

96

   

The Changing Federal Role

 

98

   

The Advanced Research Projects Agency

 

98

   

ARPA and Information Technology

 

99

   

ARPA's Management Style

 

101

   

National Science Foundation

 

105

   

1970-1990: Retrenching and International Competition

 

107

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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Computer Science, Computer Technology

 

107

   

The Changing Political Context

 

111

   

Science and Politics in the 1970s: A Changed Climate

 

111

   

Policy for the 1980s: Industrial Research and Competitiveness

 

112

   

Changes in the Organization of Federal Research Support

 

113

   

Changes at ARPA

 

113

   

Very Large Scale Integrated Circuits

 

115

   

Strategic Computing Initiative

 

122

   

Making a Science, Funding a Science: The NSF in the 1970s and 1980s

 

124

   

Other Federal Agencies in the 1970s and 1980s

 

126

   

SEMATECH

 

129

   

High-performance Computing

 

130

   

1990 and Beyond

 

132

   

Notes

 

134

5

 

Lessons from History

 

136

   

The Benefits of Federal Research Investments

 

137

   

Providing the Technology Base for Growing Industries

 

138

   

Maintaining University Research Capabilities

 

139

   

Creating Human Resources

 

140

   

Accomplishing Federal Missions

 

141

   

Characteristics of Effective Federal Support

 

142

   

Support for Long-range, Fundamental Research

 

142

   

Support for Efforts to Build Large Systems

 

145

   

Building on Industrial Research

 

146

   

Diverse Sources of Government Support

 

147

   

Strong Program Managers and Flexible Management Structures

 

150

   

Industry-University Collaboration

 

152

   

Organizational Innovation and Adaptation

 

153

   

Concluding Remarks

 

155

   

Notes

 

155

Part II:
Case Studies in Computing Research

 

157

6

 

The Rise of Relational Databases

 

159

   

Background

 

160

   

Emergence of Computerized Databases

 

160

   

Early Efforts at Standardization

 

161

   

Emergence of the Relational Model

 

162

   

Codd's Vision

 

162

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6323.
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BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES

BOXES

ES.1

 

Why a Historical Approach?

 

3

ES.2

 

Case Studies of Innovation in Computing

 

6

1.1

 

Drawing Conclusions from Case Studies

 

19

1.2

 

Analogy in Technological Innovation

 

22

1.3

 

Early Industrial Efforts in Computing

 

29

4.1

 

Project Whirlwind and SAGE

 

92

4.2

 

Project MAC and Computer Time-sharing

 

103

4.3

 

Roots of the Personal Computer

 

109

4.4

 

Accomplishments of DARPA's Very Large Scale Integrated Circuit Program

 

119

4.5

 

Computer Engineering at the National Science Foundation

 

125

8.1

 

The Formal Verification Process

 

192

8.2

 

Rivest-Shamir-Adleman Cryptography

 

195

9.1

 

The Development and Influence of LISP

 

202

9.2

 

Dragon Systems Profits from Success in Speech Recognition

 

208

9.3

 

Pioneering Expert Systems

 

210

9.4

 

DARPA's Current Artificial Intelligence Program

 

219

10.1

 

What Is Virtual Reality?

 

227

10.2

 

Community Building

 

230

10.3

 

The Rise and Fall of Atari

 

233

10.4

 

Real3D Emerges from Military-Commercial Linkage

 

245

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FIGURES

ES.1

 

Federal and industry funding for computing research, 1977-1996

 

4

1.1

 

Illustrations of the role of government-sponsored computing research and development

 

20

3.1

 

Federal funding for research in computer science, 1976-1995

 

54

3.2

 

Federal funding for research in electrical engineering, 1971-1995

 

55

3.3

 

Federal funding for scientific research, 1974-1995

 

56

3.4

 

Federal funding for research in computer science by agency, 1976-1995

 

57

3.5

 

Federal funding for research in electrical engineering by agency, 1972-1995

 

57

3.6

 

Federal funding for basic research in computer science by agency, 1976-1995

 

58

3.7

 

Federal funding for basic research in electrical engineering by agency, 1972-1995

 

59

3.8

 

Federal and industrial funding for computing research, 1977-1996

 

60

3.9

 

R&D intensity in computer-related industries, 1975-1996

 

63

3.10

 

Bachelor's degrees awarded by field, 1966-1995

 

65

3.11

 

Master's degrees awarded by field, 1966-1995

 

66

3.12

 

Doctoral degrees awarded by field, 1966-1995

 

67

3.13

 

Federal funding for university research in computer science, 1976-1995

 

69

3.14

 

Federal funding for university research in electrical engineering, 1975-1995

 

69

3.15

 

Portion of university research funding provided by the federal government, 1973-1995

 

70

3.16

 

Computer science and electrical engineering graduate students supported by the federal government, 1985-1996

 

71

3.17

 

Expenditures for research equipment in computer science, 1981-1995

 

74

3.18

 

Expenditures for research equipment in electrical engineering, 1981-1995

 

75

8.1

 

Simplified state diagram for supervising a telephone line

 

187

9.1

 

Artificial-intelligence-related patents awarded per year, 1976-1996

 

217

9.2

 

Ph.D. dissertations submitted annually in artificial intelligence and related fields, 1956-1995

 

220

9.3

 

Number of Ph.D. dissertations submitted annually in AI and related fields and in computer science, 1956-1995

 

221

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TABLES

1.1

 

Worldwide Deployment of Computers in 1995

 

24

1.2

 

Sales and Employment in the Information Technology Industry, 1996

 

25

1.3

 

Historical Improvement in Microprocessors and Memories

 

26

3.1

 

Funding for Industrial R&D and Research in Office and Computing Equipment, 1975-1979

 

61

3.2

 

Funding for Industrial R&D and Research in Communications Equipment, 1965-1990

 

62

3.3

 

Employment, by Sector, for New Ph.D. Recipients in Computer Science and Engineering, 1970-1995

 

68

3.4

 

University Expenditures for Computing Equipment, Maintenance, and Operations (in millions of dollars), 1988

 

72

3.5

 

National Science Foundation Obligations for Institutional Computing Services (in thousands of dollars)

 

73

3.6

 

National Science Foundation Expenditures on the Coordinated Experimental Research and Computing Research Equipment Programs (in millions of dollars), 1977-1985

 

76

3.7

 

Authorship and Source of Financial Support for Computer-related Papers Cited in U.S. Patents Granted in 1993-1994

 

80

4.1

 

Computing and Related Equipment as a Share of the National Economy

 

111

4.2

 

Representative VLSI Technologies and Resulting Commercial Products

 

118

4.3

 

Growth in the National Science Foundation's Computer and Information Sciences and Engineering Directorate Budget (millions of dollars), 1987-1996

 

127

9.1

 

Total Federal Funding for Artificial Intelligence Research (in millions of dollars), 1984-1988

 

215

9.2

 

Federal Funding for Basic Research in Artificial Intelligence by Agency (in millions of dollars), 1984-1988

 

215

9.3

 

Federal Funding for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence by Agency (in millions of dollars), 1984-1988

 

215

9.4

 

Leading Holders of Patents Related to Artificial Intelligence, 1976-1997

 

218

10.1

 

Select Alumni of the University of Utah's Computer Graphics Program

 

231

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The past 50 years have witnessed a revolution in computing and related communications technologies. The contributions of industry and university researchers to this revolution are manifest; less widely recognized is the major role the federal government played in launching the computing revolution and sustaining its momentum. Funding a Revolution examines the history of computing since World War II to elucidate the federal government's role in funding computing research, supporting the education of computer scientists and engineers, and equipping university research labs. It reviews the economic rationale for government support of research, characterizes federal support for computing research, and summarizes key historical advances in which government-sponsored research played an important role.

Funding a Revolution contains a series of case studies in relational databases, the Internet, theoretical computer science, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality that demonstrate the complex interactions among government, universities, and industry that have driven the field. It offers a series of lessons that identify factors contributing to the success of the nation's computing enterprise and the government's role within it.

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