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Making Climate Forecasts Matter (1999)

Chapter: Index

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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
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Index

A

Africa, 16, 42, 43, 44, 48, 114

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 9, 40

Agency for International

Development, 70

Agricultural sector, ix, 11-12, 13, 14, 19, 26

climate parameters, general, 40, 90

coping strategies, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99

effects of climate variability, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 32, 68-70

encroachment on forests, 47

global warming, beliefs of farmers, 72-73

“green revolution” as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83, 119

information dissemination to, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109

insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138

market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58

usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117

see also Drought;

Food supply;

Rural areas

Argentina, 8, 52

Asia

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8

monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90

see also specific countries

Atlantic Ocean, 16

North Atlantic Oscillation, 34

Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions

Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30

Attitudes see Beliefs;

Cultural factors

Australia, 8-9, 26, 33, 47

B

Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117

Beliefs, 3, 13, 16, 71-73, 118, 124, 134

fishery management, 46

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

human information processing, 73-74, 77, 81, 94

see also Cultural factors

Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37

see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions

Brazil, 8, 9, 25, 47, 68-70

Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68

C

California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50

Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28

Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134

Chile, 8, 26

Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22

Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131

agricultural sector, 40, 90

information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127

ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37

public health and, 66, 90

sector/group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131

skill of forecasts, 37

traditional forecasts, 72

usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127

see also Atmospheric pressure;

Precipitation;

Temperature factors

Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48

see also Tropical storms

Communication

between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84

persuasive, 85, 93

see also Information dissemination;

Participatory approaches;

Risk communication

Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125 , 126, 136-140

El Niño, 7-10

see also Distribution of costs and benefits;

Effects of climate variations/forecasts

Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126-127, 129, 130-131

agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99

cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68

cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62

decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62

developing countries, general, 42-43, 51

disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61

diversification, 41, 44, 60

drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58

effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138

ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99

fisheries management, 45-46

flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59

forests and other ecosystems, 47-48

health effects, 39, 51-52

hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62

information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134

institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139

market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58;

see also "hedging" supra

organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57

theory of, 130-131

value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137

water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69

see also Emergency preparedness and response;

Insurance and reinsurance

Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119 , 120, 122-123

agricultural sector, 41, 42, 43, 45, 108, 117

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

coping strategies, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 97

fishery management, 45, 46

flooding, 51, 112

see also Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts;

Distribution of costs and benefits;

Effects of climate variations/forecasts

Cultural factors, 3, 4, 13, 40

beliefs about weather, 71-73, 77

coping strategies, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62

"green revolution" as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83

information dissemination and, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133

organizational, 4, 77-79

risk perception/behavior, 77

see also Beliefs

D

Decision making, general, x, xi, 12, 34, 35-36, 100, 101-102, 103-108, 111-112, 114-116

Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117

coping strategies, 38, 50-51, 59, 62

human information processing, model of, 73-74, 94

information dissemination, 63, 64-65

response to forecasting, 71, 72, 73-74, 90, 94

see also Uncertainty

Department of Energy, xi

Department of the Interior, see Bureau of Reclamation

Developing countries, general, ix, 8, 108

coping strategies, 42-43, 51

Global Telecommunications System, 20

see also Famine;

specific countries

Diet and nutrition, see Nutrition

Disasters, general, 1

emergency preparedness, 6, 53, 55-57

warnings, 80, 82-93, 85, 87, 88

see also Drought;

Emergency preparedness and response;

Emergency warning systems;

Famine;

Fires;

Floods;

Insurance and reinsurance;

Tropical storms;

Vulnerability to climate variations

Diseases and disorders, see Health effects

Dissemination of information, see Information dissemination

Distribution of costs and benefits

of climate variation, 97, 105-106

coping strategies, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61

forecast information, 66-67, 82-83, 86, 93-94

of improved forecasts, 6, 119, 122-123, 129, 139-140

Diversification, as coping strategy, 41, 44, 60

Drought, 14, 67-68, 83, 102, 140

coping strategies, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70

forecasts, 68-70

E

Ecology, 47-48, 50, 108

infectious diseases, 51-52

marine mammals, 9, 48

see also Fisheries;

Forests

Economic factors, 6, 8, 14, 35, 96, 113

models, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117

sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 93, 96, 97, 104 , 120, 133;

see also specific sectors

see also Agricultural sector;

Cost

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

and cost-benefit factors;

Developing countries;

Fisheries;

Forests;

Insurance and reinsurance;

Market forces;

Water supply

Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program, x

Ecuador, 8, 26, 33

Education, see Information dissemination

Educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139

literacy, 81, 93

Effects of climate variations/forecasts, 5, 6, 95-123, 126, 136-140

agricultural sector, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123

coping strategies, general, 98-99, 108, 137, 138

defined, 96

El Niño, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134

insurance sector, 96, 97, 112, 139

models, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139

regional factors, 96, 104, 120

time factors, 96, 97, 125

value of forecasting vs, 95-96

see also Consequences of climate variations/forecasts;

Distribution of costs and benefits

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 1-2, 7-10, 16, 19, 23-34, 64, 68-70, 101, 109, 110, 127, 141

agricultural sector, 8, 32, 68-70

cost and cost-benefit factors, 8, 97

drought, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70

effects of forecasts, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134

forest fires, 8, 47

health effects, 8, 9, 51-52

information dissemination, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134

Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30

marine ecosystems, 9, 47-48

nowcasting, 31-32

precipitation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34

sea surface temperature, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34

spatial factors, 32-33

tropical storms, 8, 32, 109

Emergency preparedness and response, 6, 35, 55-57, 59, 67, 70, 78-79, 82-83, 109

refugees, 8

Emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87, 88

Environmental protection, see Ecology;

Pro-environmental behavior

Ethical issues, see Legal/ethical issues

Europe, 16

F

Famine, ix, 35, 70-71, 90

Federal Emergency Management Agency, 112

Federal government, 95

agricultural insurance, 43, 64

flood insurance, 55, 112

funding, general, 95

reinsurance, 55

see also specific departments and agencies

Fires, 55, 56

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47

Fisheries, 32, 33-34, 45-46, 47-48, 62, 111

Floods, 7, 8, 13, 35, 50-51, 70, 97, 105

coping strategies, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59

cost and cost-benefit factors, 51, 112

federal insurance, 55, 112

forecasts, 51

vulnerability, 15, 97

warning systems, 86

Florida, 62

Food supply, ix, 14, 40, 57, 108

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9

see also Agricultural sector;

Famine;

Nutrition

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

Forecasting, general, x, 1-2, 7, 9-10

benefits of, 3, 10, 12-13, 15, 95, 101, 119, 130-133;

see also "usefulness" infra

consequences of, 2, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140

coping strategies and, general, 38, 39, 42-43, 44-45, 46, 50-51, 52, 54, 59, 60, 63

disparities of benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139

drought, 68-70

failures, 4, 10, 67-68, 69-70, 76, 113-114, 135

famine, 70-71

flood, 51

hindcasts, 24

nowcasting, 20-21, 27, 31-32

overconfidence, 76, 92, 127

response to forecasts, 67-77, 91-92, 138-139

sea surface temperature, 23

sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 93, 96, 97, 120, 133;

see also specific sectors

short-term, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134;

see also "nowcasting" supra

skill, general, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138;

see also "failures" supra

technology of, 18-29

traditional, 71-73

usefulness, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 125, 126, 127-128, 130

see also Information dissemination;

Information in climate forecasts;

Interannual variability;

Seasonal factors;

Uncertainty

Foreign countries

see also Developing countries;

International programs;

specific countries

Forests, ix, 47, 56, 102

agricultural encroachment, 47

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47

Foundation for Meteorological and Hydrological Resources (Brazil), 69

G

Global Change Research Program, 1

Global Telecommunications System, 20

Global warming, x, 13, 35, 72-73

Government role, 69-70, 111

disaster transfer payments, 13, 138

funding, 95

information dissemination, 87

see also Emergency preparedness and response;

Federal government;

State government

Greenhouse effect, see Global warming

H

Health effects, 35, 39, 51-52, 59-60, 66

coping strategies, general, 39, 51-52

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9, 51-52

emergency preparedness and response, 55, 90

nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71;

see also Famine;

Food supply

public health information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88

public health, other, 66, 90

risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88

Healthy behaviors, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88

Hedging strategies, 41-42, 44, 57-58, 60, 62

Hindcasts, 24

Historical perspectives, ix, 27-28, 38, 140-141

agricultural insurance, 43

climate indicators, 35

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

forecasting, general, 22-23

human information processing, 73-74

interannual changes, 11

numerical forecasting, 21

response to forecasts, 67-72, 91

seasonal changes, 11, 38

Holdridge Life Ozone Classification, 35

Households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106

Human Relations Area Files, 71

Hurricanes, see Tropical storms

I

Impacts

see Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts;

Effects of climatic variations/forecasts

India, 32, 40, 42, 43-44, 82, 90, 103-104, 106

Individual responses, 4, 17, 38-39, 61, 66-67, 127

beliefs about weather and climate, 71-72

households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106

informational analogs to forecasts, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92

information processing, 73-77

see also Educational attainment;

Socioeconomic status

Indonesia, 47

Information dissemination, 2, 3-4, 36, 63-94, 111, 127-128, 133-136, 139

agricultural sector, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109

analogies from fields outside climate forecasting, 79-87, 89, 91-92, 119

risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88

case studies of, 67-71

channels, 81-82, 92

climate parameters, general, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127

cultural factors, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133

delivery systems, 3-4, 59, 81-84, 92-93, 128, 135-136

disaster warning as analog, 80, 82-86

educational attainment and, see Educational attainment

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134

Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30

emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87

ethical and legal issues, 40, 136

global, 20, 21;

see also Internet

green revolution as analog, 80, 82-83

hedging and, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62

individuals' responses, 4, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92

models of, 86-89

organizational responses, 4, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131 , 134-135, 139

participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133

persuasive communication, 85-86, 87, 93, 128

proenvironmental behavior as analog, 80-86

public health as analog, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88

redundancy, 81-82

risk communication as analog, 80, 87-88

socioeconomic status, and see Socioeconomic status

vulnerability and, 68, 83, 90, 94

see also Decision making;

Distribution of costs and benefits;

Information in climate forecasts;

Internet;

Learning theory;

Risk communication

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

Information in climate forecasts, 2-3, 63-67

authoritarian approaches, 87, 88

characteristics of, 79

coping strategies and, 60, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134

cultural factors, 71-73, 133

fishery management, 46

human information processing and, 73-77, 94

matching to recipient, 63-67, 81, 89-91, 127, 130-133

and nonclimatic information, 62

organizational responses, 77-79, 134-135

sources of, 81-82

uncertainty, 4, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135

understanding of, 3, 73-77, 133-134

usefulness of, 2-3, 63-67

See also Forecasting;

Information dissemination

Institute for Business and Home Safety, 55

Institutional factors

coping, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139

usefulness of forecasts, 64, 65, 122

see also Market forces;

Organizational factors

Insurance and reinsurance, 6, 7, 13, 14, 39, 42, 54-55, 59, 60, 123

agricultural sector, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138

effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 112, 139

industry organizational response, 78

informal, 43-44

usefulness of forecasts, 65-66, 67, 110, 120

Interannual variability, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 125

climate defined, 19

climate indices, 35

coping strategies, 11, 38-62

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;

North Atlantic Oscillation

International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, 106

International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 105

International perspectives, see also Developing countries;

Foreign countries;

Regional factors;

specific countries and continents

International programs, x, 21, 105, 106

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, xi

Internet

beliefs about weather, 71

El Niño, 19, 23-24, 29, 30

seasonal/interannual prediction, other, 19, 31, 55

L

Learning theory, 4, 30, 74, 75, 78, 79, 82, 92, 104, 128

Bayesian, 104, 115-117

Legal/ethical issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136

M

Marine mammals, 9, 48

Market forces, 39, 57-58

agricultural sector, coping strategies, 41-42, 44, 49, 57, 58

hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62

see also Insurance and reinsurance

Mass media, ix, 4, 7, 10, 16, 85-86, 92, 110, 134, 136

Meta-data, 5, 123, 129

Mexico, 8, 47, 82-83, 88-89, 106, 109

Models and modeling, 1-2, 3, 114-115, 128-129

Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28

computable general equilibrium, 107-108

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125

deterministic, 75, 79, 101, 102-103, 135

economic, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117

effects of climate variation, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139

firm-level decision models, 106-108

human information processing, 73-77, 94

individual's perceptions, 4, 17, 79-80, 81, 91

input-output, 104, 108

mesoscale, 33

NINO3 and, 27-28

ocean, 24, 29, 125;

see also "coupled..." supra

organizational responses to information, 77-78, 91-92, 131

participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133

reduced-form, 101-103, 121

scientific capability of, 100-108, 111-113, 121-122, 128-129

social factors, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125

value of climate forecasts, 110-111, 114-120

see also Statistical analyses

Monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90

N

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, xi

National Bureau of Economic Research, 35

National Flood Insurance Program, 55, 112

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, x-xi, 1-2

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 7

see also Office of Global Programs

National Science Foundation, xi

NINO3, 26, 27-28

North Atlantic Oscillation, 34

Nowcasting, 20-21, 27

El Niño, 31-32

Numerical models, see Statistical analyses

Nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71

see also Famine;

Food supply

O

Ocean-atmosphere interactions, x, 23-24, 37

models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125

sea ice, 21

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;

North Atlantic Oscillation;

Sea surface temperature

Office of Global Programs, x, xii, 52

Organizational factors, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 71, 106-107

coping strategies, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57

culture, 4, 77-79

"groupthink," 78

new information, responses to, 77-79, 94, 128

response to information, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134-135, 139

Overconfidence in forecasts, 76, 92, 127

P

Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 34

Pacific Ocean, 26, 30, 33

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Parameters, climate, see Climate parameters

Participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

Peru, 8, 9, 26, 33, 111

Poverty, see Developing countries;

Socioeconomic status

Precipitation, 11, 12, 22, 25, 26, 30, 36, 81, 90, 105

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34

sector-based forecasts, 32

see also Drought;

Floods;

Monsoons

Pressure, see Atmospheric pressure

Private sector, general, 21, 134

fishery resource ownership, 45

Pro-environmental behavior, 35, 50, 87

fisheries, 45-46

forests and other ecosystems, 47-48

"green revolution", 80, 82-83, 119

information systems, 80, 82-83, 85, 86

Psychological factors, see Beliefs;

Cultural factors

Public health, see Health effects

Public information, see Information dissemination;

Information in climate forecasts

R

Rain, see Floods;

Monsoons;

Precipitation

Refugees, 8

Regional factors, x, 3, 33, 128, 133

coping strategies, 48, 49, 51, 55, 56

effects of climate variation, 96, 104, 120

value/usefulness of forecasts, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130 , 133

see also Atlantic Ocean;

Pacific Ocean;

specific continents and countries

Reinsurance, see Insurance and reinsurance

Risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88

Risk management, see Coping strategies and systems;

Insurance and reinsurance

Rural areas, x, 50, 106

see also Agricultural sector

S

Satellite technology, 70-71

Global Telecommunications System, 20

Sea ice, 21, 23

Seasonal factors, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 69-71, 117 , 136

climate indices, 35

coping strategies, 11, 38-62

usefulness of forecasts, 66, 125

Sea surface temperature, 21, 23, 25-27, 29, 37, 69

coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125

El Niño, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34

Sensitivity to climate variations, 5, 13-14, 15, 36, 40, 61-62, 71 , 89, 96, 110, 112, 119, 120, 121, 125, 126, 128, 131

coping strategies, 54, 60, 61-62, 126

defined, 14

Short-term climate prediction, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134

see also Emergency warning systems;

Nowcasting

Skill of climate forecasts, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138

defined, 26-27

failures, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135

see also Uncertainty

Social factors, xi, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11-16, 18, 35, 38, 69, 109, 113 , 127, 137-138

case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134

coping strategies, 43-45, 53, 60-61, 62, 98-99

models of, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

organizational, 4, 77-79

public health as analog to information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87

see also Beliefs;

Coping strategies and systems;

Cultural factors;

Distribution of costs and benefits;

Economic factors;

Refugees;

Vulnerability to climate variations

Socioeconomic status, ix-x, 6, 61, 120, 126

coping strategies, 61, 126

disparities of forecast benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139

educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139

effects of climate variability, models of, 103-104, 106

information dissemination, 81, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 136

see also Developing countries

South America

El Niño, 8, 16, 47

see also specific countries

Spatial factors, general, 2-3, 91, 120, 122, 127

El Niño, 32-33

geographic information systems, 103

see also Regional factors

State government, 7-8, 48, 50, 62

Statistical analyses, 21, 22-28, 100, 102, 128

climate defined, 18-19, 22

stochastic processes, 103, 106-107

time series, 26-28, 101, 113, 120

Stochastic processes, 103, 106-107

Surface conditions, see Boundary conditions;

Sea surface temperature

T

Temperature factors, 25, 26, 36, 90

climate defined, 18-19, 22

frost, 13, 19, 89

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;

North Atlantic Oscillation;

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Time factors, general, 2-3, 5, 32, 37, 120, 122, 127

effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 125

information dissemination, timing/updating of, 78, 90, 93, 127

sensitivity/vulnerability to climate change, 15

see also Nowcasting;

Interannual variability;

Seasonal factors

Time-series analysis, 26-28, 101, 113, 120

Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) Array, 23-24

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, 21

Tropical storms, 58, 62, 86, 140

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and, 8, 32, 109

urban areas, 15

U

Uncertainty, general, 2, 4, 10, 36-37, 37-39, 65, 88, 118, 125

accuracy thresholds, 91

chaos, 2, 36

ethical/legal issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136

failures in forecasting, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135

fishery management, 45-46

in forecasts, 4, 75-76, 92, 118

human information processing, 75-76, 79

information dissemination, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
×

nowcasting, 27

organizational responses to, 77-78

trust, levels of, 81, 87, 89, 92

see also Coping strategies and systems;

Skill of climate forecasts

Urban areas, x, 8, 15

USAID, see Agency for International Development

V

Value of climate forecasting, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 130-133, 140

agricultural sector, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117

climate parameters, general, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127

coping strategies and, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137

disparities forecast benefits, ix-x, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131

effects of forecasting vs, 95-96

institutional factors, 64, 65, 122

insurance, 65-66, 67, 110, 120

regional, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133

sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 130, 131-132, 133;

see also specific sectors

see also Uncertainty

Vector-borne diseases, 52, 90

Venezuela, 8, 9

Vulnerability to climate variations, x, 2, 5, 6, 14-15, 51, 61-62, 105-106, 121, 122, 125, 128, 139

climate indicators, general, 35

coping strategies, 60, 61-62, 126

defined, 14-15

information dissemination, 68, 83, 90, 94

see also Sensitivity to climate variations

W

Warning systems, see Emergency warning systems;

Nowcasting

Water supply, 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 26, 67-68, 108, 113-114

coping strategies, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69

see also Drought

Wind, 11, 24, 27, 32, 102

World Wide Web, see Internet

Y

Yakima Valley, 67-68

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6370.
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Making Climate Forecasts Matter Get This Book
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El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well.

How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been used--and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting?

This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores:

  • Vulnerability of human activities to climate.
  • State of the science of climate forecasting.
  • How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate.
  • How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response.
  • How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
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