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The Spent-Fuel Standard for Disposition of Excess Weapon Plutonium Application to Current DOE Options Panel to Review the Spent-Fuel Standard for Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium Committee on International Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences . - NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, DC s
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C.20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Council of the National Academy of Sciences. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. N00014-98-1-0789 between the National Acad- emy of Sciences and the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not neces- sarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07320-0 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitu- tion Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. ;0-
I, ~ ~ - r ~r~ I\l-A-~I( )1\1~\1 i\CAD National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council . is/\ I in") The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov- ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
PANEL ON IMMOBILIZATION/MOX ASSESSMENT JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy & Director, Program in Science, Technology, & Public Policy, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN F. AHEARNE, Adjunct Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Lecturer in Public Policy, Duke University; Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina ALLISON MACFARLANE, Senior Research Associate, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts MARVIN M. MILLER, Research Affiliate, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts ALBERT NARATH, President (retired), Energy and Environment Sector, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY, Professor and Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California Study Staff ·3: INTA BRIKOVSKIS, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control (until 12/98) JO L. HUSBANDS, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control (from 12/98) JOHN WILEY, Senior Program Officer, Board on Radioactive Waste Management GEOFFREY FRENCH, Research Associate (until 11/99) LA'FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Administrative Associate v
COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL .~- JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Teresa and lohn Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy & Director, Program in Science, Technology, & Public Policy, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN D. STEINBRUNER (Vice-Chair), Professor and Director, Center for International Security Studies at Maryland, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland WILLIAM F. BURNS, Major General (USA, Ret.), Carlisle, Pennsylvania GEORGE LEE BUTLER, President, Second Chance Foundation, Omaha, Nebraska STEPHEN COHEN, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (from July 2000) PAUL M. DOTY, Professor Emeritus, Department of Molecular and Cell Biology; and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts (until June 1999) SUSAN EISENHOWER, The Nixon Center, Washington DC STEVE FETTER, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses, and Senior Fellow, National Academy of Engineering, Washington DC RICHARD L. GARWIN, Thomas I. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights, New York SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President, Arms Control Association, Washington DC CATHERINE KELLEHER, Director, Aspen Institute Berlin, Berlin, Germany CHARLES LARSON, Admiral (USN, Ret.) U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor, The Rockefeller University, New York, New York MATTHEW MESELSON, Thomas Dudley Cabot Professor of the Natural Sciences, Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ALBERT NARATH, President (retired), Energy and Environment Sector, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico Al
WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY, Professor and Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and Director, Strategic Research, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, ex officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC . . Vtl
Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integ- rity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following indi- viduals for their review of this report: Milton Levinson, Menlo Park, CA David G. McAlees, Bellevue, WA Alexandra Navrotsky, University of California, Davis John J. Taylor, Palo Alto, CA Frank Van Hippel, Princeton University .¢ Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con- clusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by, Harold K. Forsen, National Academy of Engineering, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee, who was responsible for making certain that an inde- pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. 1~
Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background and Charge to the Panel Summary of Principal Findings CHARGE TO THE PANEL BACKGROUND CLARIFYING THE SPENT-FUEL STANDARD . The Standard as Originally Conceived Dependence on intrinsic properties only Further qualifications on the application of the standard Application of the standard to final plutonium forms in the initial CISAC study Questions about the Spent-Fuel Standard A Systematic Approach to Considering Compliance with the Standard Interactions of threats and barriers Relative importance of threat categories EVALUATING Pu DISPOSITION FORMS AGAINST THE STANDARD Basis of Comparisons Comparison Matrices and Discussion Alternatives to the Reference Can-in-Canister Configuration Xl
All TABLES Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 APPENDIX A: CHARGE TO THE PANEL APPENDIX B: PANEL MEETINGS, BRIEFINGS, AND CONSULTANTS Meetings and Briefings Consultants ..` CONTENTS