Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2024) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 407-458
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gas (GHG) Transparent for the reductions Analysis and Implementation • Equity Reporting of Building • Public for Adaptive Decarbonization engagement Management Policies Ensuring Procedural Equity in Planning and Siting New Infrastructure and Programs Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector 7-2: Promote an DOE • Buildings • GHG Ensuring Equitable Focus • Non-federal reductions Procedural Equity Across Building actors • Equity in Planning Decarbonization • Public and Siting New Policies engagement Infrastructure and Programs Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector continued 407 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH07.indd 407 3/29/24 4:54 PM
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Objective(s) Categories Short-Form Implementing Addressed by Addressed by Addressed by Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation 7-3: Expand and DOE • Buildings • GHG Rigorous and Evaluate the reductions Transparent Weatherization • Equity Analysis and Assistance • Health Reporting Program for Adaptive Management Ensuring Procedural Equity in Planning and Siting New Infrastructure and Programs Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector 7-4: Coordinate State and • Buildings • Equity Tightened Targets Subnational municipal • Non-federal • Employment for the Buildings Government government actors and Industrial Agencies to Align offices Sectors and a Decarbonization Backstop for the Policies and Transport Sector Implementation Building the Needed Workforce and Capacity 408 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH07.indd 408 3/29/24 4:54 PM
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Objective(s) Categories Short-Form Implementing Addressed by Addressed by Addressed by Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation 7-5: Build Capacity Congress • Buildings • GHG A Broadened for States and • Non-federal reductions Policy Portfolio Municipalities actors • Equity Rigorous and to Adopt and • Health Transparent Enforce Increased • Employment Analysis and Regulatory Rigor Reporting for Buildings and for Adaptive Equipment Management Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector Building the Needed Workforce and Capacity 7-6: Increase Congress • Buildings • Equity Siting and Research, • Non-federal • Health Permitting Reforms Development, actors • Employment for Interstate Demonstration, • Public Transmission and Deployment engagement Research, for Built Development, and Environment Demonstration Decarbonization Needs Interventions 7-7: Extend Congress; DOE • Buildings • GHG A Broadened Current reductions Policy Portfolio Decarbonization • Equity Tightened Targets Incentives Beyond • Health for the Buildings the Next Decade • Employment and Industrial While Scaling Up Sectors and a Mandates Backstop for the Transport Sector 409 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH07.indd 409 3/29/24 4:54 PM
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2018. "A Greenhouse Gas Abatement Framework for Investment in District Heating." Applied Energy 211:1095–1105.
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EERE-2016-BT-TP-0029] RIN 1904-AD71 Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps." Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy.
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2022. "Heat Pump Systems." Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
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2021. Sharing the Sun: Community Solar Deployment, Subscription Savings, and Energy Burden Reduction.
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2018. "Lowering Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Built Environment by Combining Ground Source Heat Pumps, Photovoltaics and Battery Storage." Energy and Buildings 180:51–71.
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2015. "District Energy in Cities: Unlocking the Potential of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy." United Nations Environment Programme.
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2019. Halfway There: Energy Efficiency Can Cut Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Half by 2050.
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Funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to incentivize terrestrial carbon sinks and non-CO2 emission reductions is technically capable of generating an annual land sink plus CH4 and N2O abatement of 211 Mt CO2e/y in 2030, and a total net emission (carbon sinks plus non-CO2 abatement)
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The 2021 National Academies' report Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System deferred discussion of the policies to create and manage agricultural and for estry carbon sinks to this report, and hence a full chapter has been allocated here.
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However, these experiments are not particularly useful for safeguarding the public expendi tures for carbon sinks in the IRA, because the information is proprietary. Also, concerns persist about the permanence, additionality, and leakage of carbon offsets.
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to agricultural lands, but only as a frontier negative emissions technol ogy. These rocks react with CO2 from the atmosphere, yielding stable carbonate minerals and providing co-benefits by increasing soil pH, which improves the productivity of acidic soils (Beerling et al.
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Next, the committee analyzes mitigation measures in the IRA that target agricultural-based emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The committee offers specific recommen dations to the Secretary of Agriculture about the implementation of programs in the bill that target carbon sinks through forestry and agricultural soils, and through abatement of methane and nitrous oxide.
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A C C E L E R AT I N G D E C A R B O N I Z AT I O N I N T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S (Million tons CO2equivalent) Greenhouse gas emissions Year FIGURE 8-1 Projected sink, with uncertainty bounds, from The Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050.
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. It is possible to envision extreme scenarios in which the needed sink is much smaller because of curtailed energy demand or much larger because of more residual fossil fuel use and/or higher non CO2 GHG emissions.
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. Because technological options like BECCS and DAC are unlikely to be deployed at levels that would materially affect 2030 emissions, carbon sinks in the United States through 2030 should be thought of as the "business as usual" (BAU)
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(2021) , which combines optimistic assumptions about forestry and agricultural options, and assumptions about the decline of the BAU land sink.
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Potential Size of Safe Terrestrial Carbon Sinks in the United States The National Academies (2019, p.
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. The safe limit for agricultural C sequestration is less constrained by land use change concerns compared to forestry, in that most of the management practices to increase soil carbon stocks can be employed on agricultural lands that remain in production for 7 Baselines are benchmarks that represent a one-time fixed benefit.
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. Reducing non-CO2 GHG emissions lessens the size of carbon sinks required to meet overall GHG mitigation targets, and thus potential reductions in agricultural CH4 and N2O emission are relevant to include.
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The $0.1 billion for administration is a legitimate portion of any expenditure to create carbon sinks or manage fire. The IRA directs $19.45 billion to agricultural conservation, with the majority as additional funding to four existing U.S.
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with $1 billion to provide conservation technical assistance, $0.3 billion to engage in a program quantify ing carbon sequestration and GHG emissions in agricultural lands, and $0.1 billion for administrative expenses (§21002)
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. If all of this $2.75 billion is used effectively to create net carbon sinks at $20/tCO2, then it will sequester a total of 138 MtCO2 over 8 years.
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report, forestry and agricultural carbon sinks were examined in detail, but the important non-CO2 greenhouses gases CH4 and N2O -- of which the agricultural sector is a major source -- were not covered. Hence, here the committee provides more background on the specific sources of these gases within agriculture, management practices to mitigate their emissions (see Box 8-1)
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Reductions in N2O emissions primarily involve reducing the total amount of reactive nitrogen added to agricultural soils while increasing the nitrogen use efficiency to the plant, thus main taining yields and also reducing other losses to the environment such as N leaching. This can be achieved by reducing nitrogen-based fertilizer and manure application through methods such as variable rate technology, using nitrogen inhibitors and "slow-release" fertilizers to suppress soil microbial activity, and improving nitrogen nutrient management through methods such as "precision farming" to optimize N efficiency (EPA 2022; Winiwarter et al.
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However, in practice, while we can eliminate the majority of coal- and natural gas–associated methane emissions by substituting for energy from non-emitting sources (see Chapters 10 and 12) , agricultural N2O and methane emissions result from natural biogeochemical processes occurring in soils and in the digestive tract of livestock that are impossible to fully eliminate and difficult to sub stantially reduce with current mitigation practices without affecting food production systems.
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TABLE 8-1 Abatement Potentials for Methane and Nitrous Oxide At ≤$20/t CO2e At $20–$50/t CO2e Total at ≤$50/t CO2e Reduction Total Cost Reduction Total Cost Reduction Total Cost A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH08.indd 435 Abatement from 2020 (billions Abatement from 2020 (billions Abatement from 2020 (billions (MtCOe/y)
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Adding the expected forestry and agricultural carbon sinks plus N2O and CH4 reduc tions, the IRA could create a net 8-year net sink of 983 MtCO2e (138 + 845) and a 2030 net sink of 245 MtCO2e/y (34 + 211, assuming a linear ramp)
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sinks and/or non-CO2 GHG reductions, from projects in which farmers/foresters adopt new management practices that increase C sinks and/or reduce GHG emissions. Currently, there are very few agriculture and forestry project types that are eligible for inclusion in compliance (cap-and-trade)
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Forestry Carbon Sink Findings and Recommendations Finding 8-1: The $5 billion of forestry funding in the IRA is theoretically sufficient to create additional terrestrial carbon sinks as large as those in simple net-zero trajectories. There is sufficient land available to stay well within the safe limits pro posed by the National Academies (2019)
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However, an important recent paper used remote sensing methods to compare 37 forest management projects in Califor nia designed to enhance carbon sinks with matched controls and found no additional carbon storage (Coffield et al.
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A C C E L E R AT I N G D E C A R B O N I Z AT I O N I N T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S Agricultural Carbon Sink and CH4 and N2O Findings and Recommendations Finding 8-2: If allocated efficiently, the $19.5 billion of funding in the IRA for agricultural conservation directed at GHG mitigation appears to be adequate to provide the needed contribution by 2030 from soil C sinks on cropland and graz ing land and from reduced agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions, for the net-zero trajectories described above. However, the actual performance of proposed mea sures for soil C sink enhancement and GHG abatement is uncertain for a number of reasons, and the amount of agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions that the IRA will avoid is highly uncertain and depends on priorities for which con servation practices are incentivized, the level of farmer/rancher participation and practice adoption, and the actual cost and efficacy of emission reduction practices.
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This system would be analogous in function to the Forest Inventory and Analysis system for the nation's forests, which entails periodic measurement of forest biomass and soils, carbon, and forest condition. Measurements of soil carbon stocks and other key soil indications at agricultural NRI points would reflect actual on-farm conditions, and could be done on a rotating basis (e.g., 1,000 points per year, on a 10-year remea surement cycle)
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In addition, economic and behavioral research need to investigate ap proaches to improve policy design and address inequities in participation of disadvantaged communities in conservation incentive programs. Recommendation 8-6: Incentivize the Abatement of CH4 and N2O Emissions and Improve Soil Carbon Sequestration.
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Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Technically achievable "safe" totals from the National Academies (2019) are again 150 MtCO2/y from new forests, 100 MtCO2/y from changed forest management, 250 MtCO2/y from agricultural soils and 500 MtCO2/y from BECCS.
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The study used National Renewable Energy Lab estimates 444 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH08.indd 444 3/29/24 7:55 PM
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Land Use FIGURE 8-7 Land required by renewable electricity and transmission in NZAP. NOTES: The green regions are excluded from development.
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. Corn ethanol production currently requires fossil energy and yields substantial N2O emissions from fertilizer 446 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH08.indd 446 3/29/24 7:55 PM
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. Biofuels are mar ginally more expensive than fossil fuels in most locations, but within the historic range of fossil prices (DOE 2022a)
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2021) , these fuels entail the same environmental justice concerns as fossil fuels, except for their greenhouse benefits.
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However, there is not currently a sufficient comprehensive plan to develop BECCS. Finding 8-4: The need for carbon sinks and net-zero chemical fuels during 2030–2050 would likely cause a rush to biomass production that would decrease agricultural and forest land.
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Land Use Requirements and Emissions Related to Animal Agriculture Multiple indicators need to be considered in assessing dietary sustainability (e.g., overall nutritional quality, GHG emissions, water and land use, economic cost, health) , 450 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH08.indd 450 3/29/24 7:55 PM
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. Animal agriculture specifically accounts for 5 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, 37–44 percent of global methane emissions, 44 percent of nitrous oxide emissions, and 75–80 percent of total agricultural emissions (FAO et al.
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. In addition to the emission profile of animal products, conventional meat supply chains pose other environmental and dietary health impacts, discussed in Chapter 3.
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While the market for plant-based meat substitutes is projected to grow by 11 percent by 2029 (Fortune Business Insights 2022) , the much larger conventional meat market ($3 trillion, globally)
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There is potentially more opportunity but less mitigation benefit with dairy substitutes. Despite the current animal protein–oriented food system's high GHG emissions, potential adverse health impacts, and high demand for arable land, research shows that a fundamental change in the food animal production system will be difficult, requiring technological innovation, policies that make sustainable food more acces sible and affordable, and buy-in from consumers.
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. • Creating federal incentives for plant-based meat substitutes and cell-cultivated products that reflect their life-cycle GHG and land use benefits relative to conventional meat.
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A C C E L E R AT I N G D E C A R B O N I Z AT I O N I N T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS ON LAND USE TABLE 8-3 Summary of Recommendations on Land Use Actor(s) Overarching Responsible for Sector(s)
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Objective(s) Categories Short-Form Implementing Addressed by Addressed by Addressed by Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation 8-6: Incentivize USDA • Land use • GHG A Broadened the Abatement reductions Policy Portfolio of CH4 and • Equity N2O Emissions and Improve Soil Carbon Sequestration 8-7: Release a Department of • Land use • GHG Research, Comprehensive Energy reductions Development, and Research, Demonstration Development, Needs Demonstration, and Deployment Program for Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage 8-8: Convene Secretary of • Land use • GHG A Broadened an Expert Group Agriculture reductions Policy Portfolio to Recommend • Health Policies That Could Encourage Sustainable Diets 457 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH08.indd 457 3/29/24 7:55 PM
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2022. "Inflation Reduction Act Summary." https://bipartisanpolicy.org/download/?
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