Implementable Strategies for Shifting to Direct Usage-Based Charges for Transportation Funding (2009) / Chapter Skim
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From page 11... ...
9 2. FORECASTING VMT FEES If one potential benefit of making a transition to VMT fees is maintaining and increasing revenues to support transportation, an essential first step to identifying VMT-fee options is considering the levels of revenue to be raised.
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10 Figure 2.1. Historical Growth in VMT and Fuel Consumption -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Pe rc en ta g e G ro w th s in ce 1 9 8 0 VMT Fuel Consumption Sources: FHWA (2007 Table 5.2.1)
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11 that VMT rose annually -- until 2008, when oil prices spiked and VMT declined for the first time since records have been kept. This added new data to our understanding of the relationship between fuel prices and VMT, which has historically been relatively inelastic.
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12 most recent forecasts from FHWA, available in the 2006 Conditions and Performance Report (FHWA 2006) , are several years out of date.
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13 Figure 2.2. EIA Forecasted Growth in VMT and Fuel Consumption -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Pe rc en ta g e G ro w th F o re ca st f ro m 2 0 0 8 VMT Fuel Consumption Sources: EIA (2009 Tables 45, 60, 65, and 67)
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14 forecast VMT on the specific sampling segments within the HPMS system, not for the road network as a whole, so this would constitute an extension of current practice. Though representing a significant amount of work, an advantage here is that states would be able to perform multiple modeling runs to examine whatever scenarios they would like to consider.
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15 pricing, this could increase the cost of travel significantly, and the effect on VMT would likely be much more dramatic. Calculating such impacts would have required much more detailed modeling, beyond the scope of the current research project.
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16 taxes by five cents per gallon (to 23.4 cents for gasoline and 29.4 cents for diesel) could produce revenue in 2030 similar to that forecast for VMT fees.
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17 As Figure 2.3 shows, a 1.1-cent VMT fee would results in approximately $7 to $9 billion in additional revenue in 2030, without adjusting for inflation. It is beyond the scope of this paper to project future expenditures, so it is difficult to say whether this would be sufficient to meet the country's transportation needs.
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