Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 1: Forecast (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 12-24
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From page 12... ...
The analysis that follows is best thought of as a market "potential" forecast and, because the air taxi market is just now emerging, it is inherently somewhat speculative. Because the focus is on potential market demand, it is implicitly assumed that manufacturers will be able to expand production as needed to meet the demand.
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From page 13... ...
traffic in FY2007 collected by the FAA in the case of air taxi and quarterly Origin-Destination Survey (DB1B) for FY2007 collected by the U.S.
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From page 14... ...
The logic behind these filters is that the introduction of a new VLJ alternative is likely to attract only those existing air taxi passengers who already are flying to VLJ airports, on aircraft of similar size to VLJs, and within the non-stop flying range of VLJ aircraft. A total of 146,763 annual flights were identified with this methodology, and each was assigned to the piston, turboprop, or light jet air taxi mode.
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From page 15... ...
As noted earlier, this was done using Census population estimates to generate synthetic observations of air taxi travel at the Census tract level. The conversion of ETMS flights into passenger trips is discussed below in the Model Assumptions section.
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From page 16... ...
Cost and travel time attributes were developed for each aircraft type based on data obtained from the Conklin & de Decker Aircraft Cost Evaluator database. Party size is an important factor in the statistical model because the air taxi and automobile modes have capacity constraints that could affect total costs depending on the party size (e.g., if more than one unit of the mode is required to accommodate the entire party)
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From page 17... ...
In addition, the number of based prop or jet aircraft (averaged between the departure and arrival airports) was calculated to serve as proxies for airport amenities that may affect the attractiveness of the three air taxi modes.
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From page 18... ...
Somewhat surprisingly, the elasticity estimates also indicate that a given price change for the air taxi modes will elicit
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From page 19... ...
These estimates will be provided electronically as the appendix to the second volume of this report, ACRP Report 17: Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. When reviewing these estimates, it is important to recognize that they account only for air taxi activity.
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From page 20... ...
, the attributes of the remaining modes -- automobile, commercial air, and air taxi turboprop and light jet -- were assumed to remain constant for all geographic regions through the forecast years 2012 and 2017.
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From page 21... ...
Estimated air taxi annual trips and market shares.*
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From page 22... ...
Operational Impacts on Airports Given the baseline projections, the trip estimates are all tied to specific locations and airports, so the total number of associated air taxi operations on an airport-specific basis can be aggregated. The projected operational increases for 2017 compared with the TAF 2007 total operation estimates are summarized in Table 19; the average operational increase by 2017 relative to the 2007 baseline is on the order of 6%.
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From page 23... ...
Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 4,775 455,3153,96AMylreveBinuMylreveBYVB 339,1732,401HNauhsaNdleiFerioBHSA OXC Waterbury-Oxford Oxford CT 60,829 1,708 155,91959,923OCrevneDlainnetneCAPA BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 6,188 DRO Durango-La Plata County Durango CO 57,123 4,845 655,4700,47OCnoitcnuJdnarGdleiFreklaWTJG HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 4,534 PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 35,184 FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 29,093 LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 26,682 712,710CNlliHlepahCsmailliWecaroHXGI RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 17,018 071,29338,131XTsallaDnosiddASDA 264,62136,841XToinotnAnaSinuMnosnitSFSS 813,32835,68XTnotsuoHlngRdnaLraguSRGS 753,81479,441XTnotsuoHdleiFnotgnillEDFE HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 12,984 556,29042,912VNsageVsaLsageVsaLhtroNTGV CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 28,667 MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 25,674 HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 22,006 FAT Fresno Yosemite Intl Fresno CA 156,648 18,705 Northwestern Mountain Southern Southwestern Western Pacific Central Eastern Great Lakes New England Table 20. Added VLJ air taxi operations by 2017 -- top five airports by region.
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From page 24... ...
Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 7,010 484,4153,96AMylreveBinuMylreveBYVB 769,2732,401HNauhsaNdleiFerioBHSA MVY Marthas Vineyard Vineyard Haven MA 52,060 2,706 504,03959,923OCrevneDlainnetneCAPA PAE Snohomish County (Paine Fld) Everett WA 131,836 13,455 BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 10,957 HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 10,177 TTD Portland-Troutdale Portland OR 86,721 10,154 PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 47,433 FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 34,773 LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 34,213 RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 20,955 772,02437,151LFodnalrOevitucexELRO 889,111338,131XTsallaDnosiddASDA 656,73136,841XToinotnAnaSinuMnosnitSFSS 741,13835,68XTnotsuoHlngRdnaLraguSRGS 690,52479,441XTnotsuoHdleiFnotgnillEDFE HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 18,187 991,052042,912VNsageVsaLsageVsaLhtroNTGV MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 78,118 CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 60,820 440,65243,592ACnojaClE/ogeiDnaSdleiFeipselliGEES HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 47,108 Northwestern Mountain Southern Southwestern Western Pacific Central Eastern Great Lakes New England Table 21.
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