Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2024) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 459-482
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2022a. "Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report." DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
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2018. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Use As sociated with Production of Individual Self-Selected US Diets." Environmental Research Letters 13(4)
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2022. "A Turning Point for US Climate Progress: As sessing the Climate and Clean Energy Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act." Rhodium Group.
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2022. "Updated Inflation Reduction Act Modeling Using the Energy Policy Simulator." Energy Innovation.
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2021. "Carbon Intensity of Corn Ethanol in the United States: State of the Science." Environmental Research Letters 16(4)
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2023. "Uncertainty in US Forest Carbon Storage Potential Due to Climate Risks." Nature Geoscience 16:422–429.
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Given the current technological and policy situation for transportation decarbon ization, the committee recommends actions to help achieve ZEV sales goals, in cluding continued tightening of federal fuel economy and emissions standards; federal and state adoption of California ZEV sales mandates; additional incentives for vehicle purchase and charger installation; and local funding and policies prefer encing EVs and chargers (Recommendation 9-1)
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. The majority of GHG emissions from transportation results from combustion of fossil fuels onboard vehicles in internal combustion engines.
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. emissions, uses energy more efficiently to move the vehicle, and allows energy use from lower-emitting sources of electricity that reduces life-cycle emissions relative to use of fossil fuels.
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It refers to ZEVs as any vehicle type that has zero carbon tailpipe emissions -- for example, BEVs and FCEVs. This chapter begins with a focus on transportation electrification, describing the committee's 2030 ZEV sales goals, supportive policies (including describing the mea sures in the IIJA and IRA that support the committee's first report goals for electrifying roadway transportation by 2030)
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: • A national standard for a 50 percent sales share of ZEVs by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050.
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Stock (%) 2021 608 4.08 2,350 0.90 2022 935 6.76 3,285 1.26 2023 1,215 7.82 4,500 1.71 2024 1,579 10.19 6,079 2.30 2025 2,052 13.28 8,131 3.06 2026 2,667 17.16 10,800 4.04 2027 3,465 22.39 14,260 5.30 2028 4,503 29.38 18,770 6.95 2029 5,852 38.33 24,620 9.08 2030 7,606 50.00 32,220 11.84 NOTES: ZEV sales and stock estimated based on growth rates needed to achieve the committee's ZEV sales goal.
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. The LD PEV and FCEV and charger tax credits in the IRA and the funding authorized and appropriated for charging infrastructure and other transport electrification in the IIJA will accelerate demand for PEVs.6 The IRA also provides substantial tax credits to North American manufacturers of vehicles and batteries through 2032, and for pro duction of low-carbon and net-zero liquid fuels, which will stimulate supply.
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. State and local policies discussed later in this section and in the section "GHG Reductions Through Transport Efficiency" can further stimulate ZEV demand toward achieving 2030 sales goals.
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-- far short of the 3 million the committee estimates will be needed by 2030. Medium- and Heavy-Duty PEVs and Charging Infrastructure The committee's ZEV sales goals include MHD trucks reaching 30 percent of sales by 2030.
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. Importance of Achieving 2030 ZEV Sales Goals Achieving or approaching the committee's 2030 sales goal of 50 percent ZEVs is a central element of decarbonizing transportation by 2050.
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In contrast, meeting an interim 2030 goal of 50 percent ZEV sales as well as a 2050 goal of 100 percent ZEV sales would lead to a vehicle stock in 2050 that is about 10 percent ICEVs and 90 percent EVs. If the goal of 100 percent ZEV sales is further advanced to 2035, then there will be close to zero ICEVs operating, requiring fossil fuels, and producing emissions, in 2050.
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is largest if only a 100 percent ZEV sales goal in 2050 is met, and smallest if a 100 percent ZEV sales goal is met in 2035. SOURCES: Data from ANL (2023)
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, and their harmful air pollution impacts, especially for environ mental justice communities that are disproportionately impacted by vehicle emissions. Barriers and Supportive Policies to Electrify Roadway Vehicles Three important barriers to accelerated LD PEV market penetration remain: consumer discounting of vehicle operating cost savings, current lack of public charger availabil ity, and manufacturer access to critical minerals and materials, especially within the context of IRA incentives.
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Even when faced with PEVs that are less expensive to produce and purchase than ICEVs, consumers may still see lack of charging infrastructure, cost of installing Level 2 chargers at home, or lack of model and product diversity as barriers to individual pur chase decisions (Consumer Reports 2022a; NASEM 2021b)
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range from roughly $73 billion to $87 billion.10 The estimated investment requirements for single-family and multi unit residential buildings alone range from $39 billion to $45 billion. Tax credits for charger installation in the IRA fall far short of this amount, although strong demand for BEVs so far indicates that higher income households are not limited by tax credits.
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. The growth in demand for energy transition minerals will occur alongside a decrease in extraction of fossil fuels, particularly coal mining.
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, batteries, fuel cells Silicon Lightweighting (EVs and Not critical Near critical ICEVs) Neodymium Magnets Critical Critical Praseodymium Magnets Near critical Critical Dysprosium Magnets Critical Critical Boron Magnets Not listed Not listed Iron Magnets, batteries Not listed Not listed Lithium Batteries Near critical Critical Cobalt Batteries, fuel cells Critical Critical Graphite Batteries, fuel cells Critical Critical Phosphorus Batteries Not critical Not critical Light rare-earth Batteries Not listed Not listed elements Electrical steel Motors (EVs and ICEVs)
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The growth in minerals needs will require increases in production from existing mines and other mineral resources, development of new mines, and development of recy cling technologies and facilities. Near-term supplies of minerals are expected to be able to meet demand; however, medium- and longer-term supply chain risks may slow the energy transition as soon as 2030–2035, if current production and invest ment trends continue (DOE 2023a; IEA 2022b)
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