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4. Funding Formulas
Pages 19-24

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From page 19...
... As input into funding formulas for these small areas, one could use the ACS equally weighted moving average estimate, an asymmetric moving average that gives more weight to the current time period (such weighted averages may not greatly increase the variance and will provide information that has less time bias) , or one could use the (direct)
From page 20...
... For example, smoothed estimates for an area with an average value below the threshold having substantial variability from year to year will serve to keep that area eligible for this hypothesized program for more years. Fund allocation formulas often have hold-harmless provisions, which is another common feature that can cause an area to have substantially different allocations as a result of that area's estimate having a larger or smaller variance.
From page 21...
... . Typical data sources as inputs into fund allocation formulas are the most recent decennial census generally the long form, which has nonnegligible sampling error for small areas; household surveys, which have smaller sample sizes but good measurement properties; and administrative records, for which the content is often not what one desires, the definitions are often inconsistent, and access and use can be complicated.
From page 22...
... The simulations showed that with an eligibility threshold and no trend, sampling variability serves to smooth out the effects of the threshold, which may not be a bad thing from a public policy point of view. However, the degree of smoothing depends on the sampling variance, which is related to the size of the area for many household surveys, with the result that an area's allocation depends on the sampling variance of its inputs, which is not rea3There is a distinction between providing different estimates that measure conceptually distinct items and providing different estimates for the same conceptual item as a result of using different loss functions.
From page 23...
... New data sources such as the ACS require reevaluation of funding formulas in light of the original intentions of the program, not simply replicating previously used procedures. The floor discussion raised a number of additional issues.
From page 24...
... Considering the expansion in programs with allocation formulas, it is a good time for reconsideration of these issues. The formulas could be reviewed, along with the estimation methods, the data sources, and what statistical problems might be involved.


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