The Social and Built Environment in an Older Society (1988) / Chapter Skim
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF CURRENT AND FUTURE AGING COHORTS
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF CURRENT AND FUTURE AGING COHORTS
Pages 42-102
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From page 42... ...
These excellent essays nonetheless accomplish their objective of providing clear, concise statements about the substantive domain of the field and the approaches that demographers can use to analyze and explain the causes and consequences of population aging. Moreover, some legitimacy has been given to the field by the extent of agreement these researchers show concerning the basic parameters that define it.
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From page 43... ...
It is not possible here to present a fully developed response to this question, but it is possible to provide a broad overview of some of the general ways in which knowledge of the demographic structure of the population as a whole and of the changing demographic structure of the elderly will assist policymakers and planners. For example, the needs of this subpopulation and its resulting demands are going to be strongly influenced by its size.
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From page 44... ...
In this sense, it is important for us to understand more clearly how the economic composition of the elderly population is changing and the factors that are responsible for this change. Different cohorts have quite different savings and labor force opportunity patterns, which can have quite different consequences for the financial abilities of the population during the early years of old age.
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From page 45... ...
Where the elderly reside will obviously play a key role in determining where services will have to be delivered and what needs must be satisfied, but equally important is that, to the extent these processes operate in a selective manner, we can expect that areas with different redistribution experiences are likely to have elderly populations with different needs. Unfortunately, little is known about areal differentials in mortality and migration and the factors that affect them, especially for some very important types of areas such as metropolitan areas.
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From page 46... ...
It is equally important to realize that a knowledge of demographic trends will also help us to better understand and predict the extent to which we will be able to supply these needs and the kinds of trade-offs that may be necessary in order to do so. Some of the subpopulation factors mentioned in the preceding paragraphs may influence supply-side considerations, but the more important factors in this sense will emerge from considering the elderly in relation to the total population.
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From page 47... ...
In the pages that follow, we will trace the evolution of the elderly population in the United States, giving particular attention to the emergence of the "oldest old" as a significant subpopulation and the "new aged" as a group that has emerged from different social and built environments. Both of these groups will pose new and different challenges to policymakers responsible for guiding the emergence of a social and built environment to meet their needs.
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From page 48... ...
Indeed, by 1980 the number of persons aged 55 and older had passed the 47.25 million mark, and the number of persons aged 65 and older exceeded 25.5 million. These recent figures represent a 141 percent increase in the number of persons 55 and older during the 40-year period and a 183 percent increase in the number of persons 65 and older.
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From page 49... ...
Migration can make either a TABLE 2 Components of Change (in millions) for the Population Aged 65 and Older, 1940-1980 Components 1970-1980 1960-1970 1950-1960 1940-1950 Population at end of decade 25,549 20,066 16,560 12,285 Population at beginning of decade 20,066 16,560 12,285 9,019 Net increase 5,483 3,506 4,275 3,266 Gains-persons reaching 65 17,455 14,242 12,396 9,776 Losses Death to 65+ 12,265 11,027 8,623 6,713 Deaths to initial population 10,096 9,007 6,921 5,167 Deaths to remaining population 2,169 2,020 1,702 1,546 Gross change 29,720 25,269 20,619 16,489 Percentage of changes Rate of gross gain 87.0 86.0 100.1 108.4 Rate of gross loss 61.1 66.6 70.2 74.4 Rate of net gain 25.9 19.4 29.9 34.0 Total death rate 32.7 35.7 34.9 35.7 MRIP 65+ 50.3 54.4 56.3 57.3 MRPR 65 12.4 14.1 13.7 15.8 NOTE: MRIP 65 + = Mortality rate for initial population 65 and over.
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From page 50... ...
Had the trends of the 1950s continued, the elderly population would probably have begun to "young" eventually. That is, the average age of the elderly would have begun to decrease.
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From page 51... ...
Age Composition of the Elderly Population Thus, over the whole period under consideration (1940-1950 to 1970-1980) , the number of persons reaching age 65 and older during the last decade was some 78 percent larger than during the first, the mortality rate for persons 65 and older at the start of each decade decreased by more than 12 percent, and the mortality rate for those reaching age 65 and older during the decade decreased by over 21 percent.
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From page 52... ...
A clear example of the former can be seen in Table 3. Many people still believe that the average age of the elderly population has increased dramat .
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From page 53... ...
Persons aged 85 and older, who made up less than 2 percent of the population aged 55 and older in 1940, were 4.7 percent of that population by 1980. This shift in the age composition of the elderly population can also be highlighted by noting that the ratio of persons 55-59 to those 85 and older declined from 16:1 in 1940 to just over 5:1 by 1980.
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From page 54... ...
SEROW AND DAVID F SLY TABLE 4 Sex Differentials in the Elderly Population, 1940-1980 Differential 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 Percentage of women In population by age group 55 + 56.7 55.5 51.4 51.3 49.9 65 + 59.7 58.1 54.7 52.8 51.1 75 + 64.4 61.0 57.1 55.1 53.1 85 + 69.6 64.1 61.0 59.4 57.1 Percentage of change from previous decade Men 55+ 18.9 14.4 20.5 27.1 Women 55+ 24.9 25.5 30.1 34.3 Men 65+ 22.4 12.2 29.5 31.4 Women 65+ 30.8 28.6 39.5 40.7 Age composition by group Men 65-69 37.9 37.1 39.0 42.0 43.0 70-74 27.7 27.5 29.1 28.2 28.8 75-79 17.9 18.5 18.1 17.1 16.4 80-84 9.9 10.4 8.9 8.6 8.1 85-89 4.6 4.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 90 + 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 Women 65-69 32.0 33.2 36.7 40.0 41.4 70-74 25.9 26.9 28.2 27.5 28.1 75-79 19.3 19.5 18.7 17.8 16.9 80-84 12.6 12.1 10.1 9.6 9.0 85-89 6.8 5.6 4.3 3.9 3.4 90+ Average age of 65 + population Men 73.6 73.6 73.1 72.8 72.5 Women 74.8 74.4 73.6 73.4 72.8 SOURCE: Derived from Table 1.
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From page 55... ...
In 1940 nearly 72 percent of the mate population aged 65 and older and more than 69 percent of the female population aged 65 and older was under the age of 75. Although by 1980 both sexes had experienced age compositional changes that were generally similar, the magnitude and timing of the changes were quite different.
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From page 56... ...
Even given the problems of comparing 1980 white/nonwhite data with white/nonwhite data for earlier periods, there is strong evidence in the table for an increasingly important role for the growth of the nonwhite elderly population in helping to shape the growth of the total elderly population. In the two decades 1940-1950 and 1950-1960, the nonwhite population contributed just over ~ percent to the total increase in the population aged 65 and older, but in the ensuing decade this figure increased to nearly 13 percent.
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From page 57... ...
For the nonwhite population the comparable figures were 10.2 percent to 13.4 percent for the population aged 55 and older and 4.8 percent to 6.8 percent for the population 65 and older. The nonwhite population is aging more slowly than the total
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From page 58... ...
Nevertheless, the general trend for both whites and nonwhites is for their age compositions to be shifting toward the upper ages to those age groups 80 and older. The data in Table 7 are for the black population.
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From page 59... ...
In general, these data reveal the same general trends as were discussed earlier for the total and nonwhite populations. The age composition of the older black population (as well as the changes in it)
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From page 60... ...
Nevertheless, for later census dates, there.is a tendency for the black sex ratios to exceed the sex ratios for the total population at the younger old ages and for the sex ratios of the total population to exceed those for the black population at age 75 and older. Regional Distribution of the Elderly Table ~ focuses on the regional distribution of the elderly and the age composition of the elderly in each of the regions; separate data are presented for the total and black elderly populations.
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From page 61... ...
In 1940 only one region, the South, had a proportion of the elderly that was Tower than its proportion of the total population; by 1980, however, the South and the North Central regions had nearly equal proportions of the country's total and elderly populations. The Northeast was the only region to have a greater proportion of the elderly than its share of the total population.
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From page 63... ...
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From page 64... ...
During the 1970s the population aged 65 and older increased in all regions more dramatically than it had since the 1940s; however, it increased more sharply in the Northeast and South than in the North Central region and West with the result that by 1980 the Northeast had a full 3 percent more of its population aged 65 and older than did the West and the South and the North Central region had nearly identical shares of their population aged 65 and older. The age composition of the elderly population in each of the regions has also changed significantly over time.
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From page 65... ...
By 1980 there was still a substantial differential in level of urbanization for both populations across regions, but within regions the differential between the total and elderly populations had virtually disappeared in all of the regions except the Northeast, where the total population was actually slightly less urbanized than it had been in 1950 and the elderly population was nearly 4.5 percent more urbanized than it had been in 1950. In other words, within all regions the urban elderly population has been increasing at a faster rate than either the rural elderly population or the total urban and rural population except in the West (this statement is not true for the total urban population there)
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From page 67... ...
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From page 69... ...
69 ~ ~ U: ~ oo o .
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From page 70... ...
Marital Composition and Living Arrangements Age and sex differences in mortality as well as rates and patterns of remarriage in the elderly population strongly suggest the value of examining patterns of marital composition separately by sex. The extent to which these factors operate is clearly revealed in Table 10 in which recent changes in the marital composition of the elderly can be traced.
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From page 71... ...
The percentage of men living in households in which the head/householder was a child decreased to just over 3 percent; those living in households in which the head/ householder was another relative or nonrelative decreased to less than 5 percent. Thus, the dominant trend among men has been for the percentage of men who are headsA~ouseholders to increase at each successive census and for the percentage in each of the other relationship categories to decrease.
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From page 72... ...
72 Cal 5a)
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From page 73... ...
The number of women identified as spouses increased from one census to the next, but the percentage of women in households who were identified as spouses stabilized at the 1960 level of 35 percent. The number of women aged 65 and older living in a household headed by one of their children or their spouse increased through 1960 but has declined since then; on the other hand, the percentage of women living under this arrangement has decreased steadily since 1940.
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From page 74... ...
THE "OLD OLD" That segment of the elderly population about which the least is known is the "old old" or the oldest of the old. It is generally believed that in recent years this population segment has been growing more rapidly than any other, and we have presented data earlier in this paper that confirm this notion.
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From page 75... ...
By 1970 there were 2.7 persons in this cohort for each person in it in 1940. By 1980 the number of persons aged 75-84 increased to more than 7.7 million, which represents some 3.4 persons in this cohort for each person in it in 1940.
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From page 76... ...
76 on Do 1 o C~ a' C)
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From page 78... ...
SEROW AND DAVID F SLY TABLE 13 Life-Table Death Rates and Survivors to Each Age Group from Age 55-84 per 1,000 Persons Aged 55-59, 1940-1980 Death Rates Survivors to Each Age of 1,000 Persons Aged 55-59 Age Group 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1980 1960 1940 Total 55-59 .0530 .0660 .0683 .0783 .0908 947 932 909 60-64 .0794 .0956 .1041 .1150 .1299 872 835 791 65-69 .1165 .1386 .1531 .1664 .1904 770 707 640 70-74 .1694 .1976 .2267 .2519 .2894 640 547 455 75-79 .2427 .2885 .3437 .3829 .4445 485 359 253 80-84 .3554 .4035 .5485 .5708 .6609 313 162 88 Male 55-59 .0707 .0890 .0912 .0992 .1073 929 909 893 60-64 .1061 .1306 .1383 .1433 .1522 830 783 757 65-69 .1571 .1872 .2004 .2035 .2175 700 626 592 70-74 .2259 .2573 .2829 .2947 .3214 542 449 402 75-79 .3149 .3563 .4080 .4322 .4833 371 266 208 80-84 .4354 .4688 .6204 .6243 .7073 209 101 61 Female 55-59 .0369 .0444 .0462 .0573 .0733 963 954 927 60-64 .0558 .0639 .0726 .0864 .1078 909 885 827 65-69 .0828 .0974 .1110 .1206 .1632 834 787 692 70-74 .1261 .1506 .1781 .2125 .2581 729 647 513 75-79 .1937 .2382 .2917 .3395 .4082 588 458 304 80-84 .3088 .3596 .4955 .5270 .6204 406 231 115 SOURCES: Grove and Hetzel, 1968; National Center for Health Statistics, 1975, 1985.
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From page 79... ...
Indeed, by the 1980 mortality schedule, more than 40 percent of the women reaching age 55-59 would survive to reach the old old ages, whereas this was true of only about 20 percent of the men. In 1940, only 6 percent of the men and 12 percent of the women aged 55-59 would survive to reach the old old ages.
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From page 80... ...
showing median educational attainment for successive cohorts in a given age group; and 3. diagonally, showing the age structure of educational attainment for a given period.
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From page 81... ...
81 To Do ok o of be ¢ .
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From page 82... ...
Higher levels of education might be expected to have additional influences on the life-course experiences of the new aged within the older population. In general, there is a positive influence of education on earning power, although the actual level of earnings will also depend on the overall rate of labor force participation.
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From page 85... ...
The largest absolute and relative increases occurred among women aged 25-34 and 35-44; as a result, peak labor force participation among women, which had previously been found for women in their late forties and early fifties (after age 20-24) , occurred throughout the early forties.
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From page 87... ...
87 of ~o 1 o d~ a)
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From page 88... ...
may have the effect of creating cohorts of new aged who are in the labor force to a relatively small extent. Among women, future cohorts of the new aged are likely to enter this phase with considerable experience in working for pay throughout their life.
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From page 89... ...
89 of Go .
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From page 90... ...
Important changes in the timing of reproductive activity among American women are still under way, but it seems unlikely that the average completed family size for any cohort born after 1945 will greatly exceed 2 children. In a real sense, it could be argued that smaller families are the other side of the increased labor force participation discussed earlier.
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From page 91... ...
In fact, for family income levels below $10,000, fair or poor health is reported less frequently among persons aged 75 and oilier than among persons aged 55-74. Perhaps it may be fairly said that persons in the oldest age group survive to that age precisely because they are comparatively healthy.
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From page 92... ...
The mortality scheduTes discussed earlier portend that new cohorts entering the older ages will live under considerably Tower risks of death until much later in life. The data we presented on education, earnings, labor force participation, and family size suggest the potential for a more heterogeneous life-style among the elderly in the future.
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From page 94... ...
Nevertheless, an understanding of future trends in the growth and structure of the elderly population is necessary if we are even to assess the alternative futures. The projections most frequently used for planning and policy purposes are the Series 14 middle-mortaTity/middle-fertility projections of the Bureau of the Census.
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From page 96... ...
To help answer this question, Table 23 presents data for an alternative set of projections that assumes a life expectancy at birth in the year 2000 that is 2 years greater than in the previously discussed set and a life expectancy that will rise to 85.9 years in the year 2080. These assumptions result in total population increases (over the middle-level projections)
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From page 98... ...
That is, with the Tow-mortality projections, there would be 1.1 million more persons aged 65 and older than there would be for the middle-level projections by the year 2000, and nearly 4 million more by the year 2020. As the data imply, these alternative sets of projections produce substantially different age compositions of the elderly over time.
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From page 99... ...
Given the present role of the public sector, through Medicaid, of bearing a large proportion of these latter costs (in addition to the costs of increased short-term hospitalization and medical treatment through Medicare) , we could easily arrive at some rather sobering conclusions regarding the impact of reductions in mortality on the social and built environment, not only for aged individuals and their families but also for society at large.
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From page 100... ...
One might argue that it is the proper role of society to provide the necessary resources, but the allocation of additional scarce resources for these purposes means that fewer resources are available for other needs, that additional resources will have to be transferred from the private to the public sector, or that continued borrowing by the public sector wi] Ll ensue.
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From page 101... ...
1982. "Changing Concepts of Morbidity and Mortality in the Elderly Population." Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 60:183-244.
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