Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition Selected Perspectives (2001) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Potatoes and Pills: An Overview of Innovation-Diffusion Contributions to Explanations of Fertility Decline
2 Potatoes and Pills: An Overview of Innovation-Diffusion Contributions to Explanations of Fertility Decline
Pages 39-65
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 39... ...
Opposition was widespread nartlv because of its strange 1 ' 1 .J tJ John Cleland is professor and head of research unit in the Centre for Population Studies at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The author would like to extend appreciation to Ian Timaeus and Brent Wolff who made constructive suggestions for improvement of a first draft of this paper.
|
From page 40... ...
To what extent can an innovation-diffusion framework help to explain marital fertility declines? These are among the key questions that will be addressed in this paper.
|
From page 41... ...
surveys that indicated a widespread need for and interest in family planning; by the success of early family planning programs in Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore; and perhaps by the illusory success of Ayub Khan's 1965-1969 program in Pakistan. Subsequently the mood changed as it became clear that adoption of contraception and declines in marital fertility would not sweep across the larger countries of Asia and Africa as fast as they had done in Taiwan, for example.
|
From page 42... ...
By that time, it was clear that fertility declines, largely fueled by increases in birth control, were occurring in most of Asia and Latin America. Within a few more years, indisputable evidence of fertility change in some of the poorest countries in the world (e.g., Bangladesh and Nepal)
|
From page 43... ...
With the clear exception of Sub-Saharan Africa, differences in the level of contraceptive practice or marital fertility at national or subnational levels appeared to reflect variations in the propensity to act on family size preferences rather than variations in the nature of preferences themselves (Lightbourne, 1985~. And once again, evidence of the impact of economic factors on reproduction was largely absent.
|
From page 44... ...
It draws heavily on sociological theories of learning, influence, and networks. Although the role of mass media and specially trained "change agents" is recognized, the importance of interpersonal communication is stressed as the most powerful channel of influence.
|
From page 45... ...
From this brief description, both blended and pure versions of innovation-diffusion explanations of marital fertility decline may be derived. Blended versions are essentially a fusion of classical demand theories and elements of the diffusion model.
|
From page 46... ...
But like the potato, both the idea of marital birth control and its material manifestations encounter resistance of a largely cultural or religious nature that condition the timing and speed of adoption. New Frederick the Greats arise at international and national levels, and cohorts of Swabian gendarmes in the modern uniform of grey suits, are dispatched from New York and Washington, D.C., to convince suspicious or fearful communities of the merits of the new idea and its products.
|
From page 47... ...
· The evidence concerning the timing of fertility transitions across societies is more consistent with expectations derived from the innovation-diffusion framework than with those derived from economic theories. · Once a certain threshold of cumulative adoption is reached, contraception spreads rapidly throughout socially and linguistically homogeneous systems, regardless of the position of groups within the economic structure.
|
From page 48... ...
Analysis of marital age-specific fertility rates certainly demonstrates that parity-specific control became very much more common in Europe between 1880 and 1930, though this evidence does not rule out the possibility that minority groups may have practiced family limitation long before the fertility transition itself nor that deliberate regulation of birth spacing may have been common. The single most telling piece of evidence to support the view that pregnancy prevention was indeed an innovation is the fact that illegitimate fertility fell in parallel with marital fertility (Knodel and van de Walle, 1986~.
|
From page 49... ...
In societies where religious sentiments permeate every aspect of life, the easiest way to express this distrust is to resort to familiar religious terminology. To sum up, the case that the idea of marital fertility regulation was a true innovation both in Europe and elsewhere remains robust despite widespread skepticism.
|
From page 50... ...
One obvious explanation is that the need for birth control determined its reception. However, survey evidence on desired family sizes or unmet need lends little support to this obvious factor.
|
From page 51... ...
The fertility transitions of Asia, Latin America, and Africa that started in the second half of the past century took place under very different circumstances from the earlier European transition. Without exception they were preceded by very steep decreases in mortality that gave rise to rapid growth of population, which in turn evoked the policy response of population control and official promulgation of newly developed methods of birth control.
|
From page 52... ...
The role of programs in fertility decline has been highly variable and context specific. In many countries, fertility decline was already established before organized state efforts were made to legitimize birth control and make available free or heavily subsidized contraceptive methods.
|
From page 53... ...
Nevertheless, the wide variability in the pace of fertility declines in developing countries is rather damaging to the diffusion explanation. For some countries, the principle of endogenous feedback documented at local level for Taiwan and Costa Rica (Montgomery and Casterline, 1993; Rosero-Bixby and Casterline, 1994)
|
From page 54... ...
Moreover it is unlikely that diffusion variables, such as communication networks, can offer plausible explanations. Other forces must be at work that condition the speed with which fertility regulation spreads.
|
From page 55... ...
(1995:51) aptly sums up the general impression from their work: "Women in these areas are not navigating the domain of uncertainty alone, but rather in flotillas, convoys in which the topics of conversation are relevant, the debates widespread and sometimes intense." And the substance of the diffusion is a bundle of interrelated topics: the idea of birth control, characteristics of particular methods, and ideas about family size.
|
From page 56... ...
The general approach in both these studies is to identify spatial-temporal patterns of fertility decline that are suggestive of social influence. Specifically, they assess evidence of endogenous feedback, whereby the fertility decline in a
|
From page 57... ...
It is unconvincing to explain rapid marital fertility transition solely in terms of the spread of knowledge. Knowledge of contraceptives and supply source is often well established long before changes in behavior.
|
From page 58... ...
Thus it is fair to conclude that, in this region, falling demand for children will precede rather than accompany or follow actual changes in reproductive behavior. An intriguing exception is Kenya, where on the eve of fertility transition, fertility aspirations remained extremely pronatalist.
|
From page 59... ...
In short, the advent of fertility regulation within marriage coexists with older ways of fertility or family size moderation rather than replacing them. CONCLUSIONS To sum up briefly, there is extremely strong evidence that fertility declines of the past 200 years have been conditioned by diffusion processes.
|
From page 60... ...
In his view, mortality decline constitutes both a necessary and a sufficient stimulus for fertility decline because, for the family, improved survival represents severe disadvantages, both in agrarian and industrial settings. The costs of child bearing rise steeply because more survive beyond infancy and early childhood.
|
From page 61... ...
1985 Marital fertility decline in developing countries: Theories and the evidence.
|
From page 62... ...
Pramualratana 1984 Fertility transition in Thailand: A qualitative analysis. Population and Development Review 10~2~:297-328.
|
From page 63... ...
Hammel 1994 Fertility declines in Prussia: Estimating influences on supply, demand and degree of control. Demography 31~2~:339-373.
|
From page 64... ...
1985 A theory of marital fertility transition. Population Studies 39:249-268.
|
From page 65... ...
Airey 1999 How can a homeostatic perspective enhance demographic transition theory? Population Studies 53~2~:117-128.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.