Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition Selected Perspectives (2001) / Chapter Skim
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1 Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Introduction
1 Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Introduction
Pages 1-38
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The fertility decline in the West, largely completed prior to World War II, has been followed in the second half of the twentieth century by comparable fertility declines in Asia, Latin America, and, most recently, Africa (United Nations, 2000~. By any criteria, the fertility decline of the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries must be ranked as among the more profound social changes of this era.
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In hindsight, this may have been a mistaken conclusion, drawn from aggregate-level studies that were incapable of detecting the many linkages at the household level between social and economic change and demographic change (see, e.g., Kertzer and Hogan, 1989~. In any case, confronted with these findings from the Princeton project, scholars turned to other explanations to augment, or even to supplant, the dominant theoretical framework in which the primary causal forces underlying fertility decline were mortality decline and the paradigmatic economic and social changes that occurred in Europe in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
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Early efforts to apply diffusion theory to fertility change were not submitted as challenges to the dominant social scientific theories of demographic transition; rather, they were directed to the more practical and programmatic goal of accelerating the adoption of contraception (Bogue, 1967; Palmore, 1967; Rogers, 1973~. Although not recognized at the time, in hindsight the first articulation of a diffusionist argument that ran counter to, or added a significantly new element to, the demographic transition theory developed by Davis, Notestein, and others, was Coale's address to the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP)
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If the main obstacle to fertility decline in developing countries was not that couples did not perceive birth control to be in their interests (the argument of Davis's [1967~) famous dismissal of the potential returns from investments in family planning programs)
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Committee on Population, from which the papers contained in this volume are drawn, was to assess the potential contribution to our understanding of fertility decline of explanations that invoke the concept of diffusion. The twofold question motivating this workshop was, "How might diffusion dynamics affect the timing and pace of fertility change, and how might the magnitude of those effects be ascertained through rigorous empirical research?
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KEY ELEMENTS IN DIFFUSION THEORY The influential pieces in the literature on fertility decline that invoke the term "diffusion" are, with few exceptions, subscribing to the same theoretical propositions. The crux of innovation diffusion theory is an argument that has two closely linked, yet distinguishable, key elements that correspond to the two terms in the phrase "innovation diffusion": fertility decline is the consequence of the increased prevalence of attitudes and behaviors that were previously very rare or absent in the population (i.e., they are innovative)
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One might characterize these two literatures as concerned with the question "What diffuses? " Another set of papers, by focusing on the phenomenon of "diffusion," draws somewhat different conclusions about the explanatory contribution of innovation diffusion theory: · This third body of work focuses on the social dynamics of the spread of innovative information and behaviors, such as birth control practices.
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, updating an earlier review (Cleland and Wilson, 1987) , concisely summarizes evidence for maintaining his position that pretransition populations are not familiar with birth control techniques, especially for the purpose of limiting the number of births, and therefore their widespread adoption during fertility transition should be regarded as truly innovative behavior.
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Were it to be answered in the negative, this would be a serious blow to innovation diffusion theory's contribution to causal models of fertility transition. Yet by itself this question is insufficient, as becomes clear when we ask what an affirmative answer would contribute to theories of reproductive change.
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The basic argument is that fertility declines because of the presence of certain knowledge, attitudes, and values that either were not present previously or that grow significantly in strength. Although the innovative character of the ideas figures into the argument and ultimately makes this argument difficult to distinguish from the behavioral innovation argument just discussed this literature sets itself apart by its determination to contrast ideas from material conditions as possible causes of fertility change.
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The more fundamental problem with this literature, however, is its implicit behavioral model. It is common in this literature to perceive ideas and material conditions as alternative, even competing, causes of fertility change, a definition of the terms of the debate that demands that ideas can be separated from material conditions.
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A divorce of ideas from structural conditions is artificial; in fact, it may often be ideas about material circumstances that are most influential in reproductive decision making. By specifying an opposition between ideas and material circumstances, the ideational change argument impedes the development of a satisfactory theory of fertility change.
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Like the literature reviewed above that emphasizes behavioral innovation, the main deficiency of the ideational change literature is that the governing theory and the empirical research are incomplete. Social Dynamics A third body of work that draws on innovation diffusion theory is more concerned with the diffusion process, that is, with the question "How does diffusion occur?
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: social learning, the process through which individuals gain knowledge from others (through informal or formal social interaction, and including the mass media) ; and social influence, the process through which some individuals exert control over others, by virtue of their power or authority.
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For now, assessing the causal impact of social effects on the timing and pace of fertility change is sufficient challenge and is the primary focus of the papers in this volume. It is natural to imagine that social effects operate through informal social interaction that is, through social networks and hence it is hardly surprising that much of the recent empirical work on social effects on reproductive behavior has included the collection of extensive data on social networks.
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From this review of the three distinct thematic emphases in the literature on innovation diffusion and fertility change behavioral innovation, ideational change, and social dynamics two principal conclusions emerge. First, each emphasis on its own is incomplete and, in particular, is unable to support full-fledged theory about the causes of fertility transition, that is, why onset is early or late and why pace is slow or rapid.
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In the previous section, social learning and social influence were identified as specific mechanisms through which social effects might operate, in this instance to affect the timing and pace of fertility change. It may be helpful to make this less abstract by describing those circumstances under which it is highly plausible that these sorts of mechanisms might be in play (Montgomery and Casterline, 1993~: (1)
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It is essential to be clear about the contribution of social effects to causal models of fertility change, a concern of several papers in this volume (particularly Palloni)
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. This formulation allows for social effects operating indirectly and at a distance, including through the mass media.
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These account for the fact that individuals are prepared to adopt innovative behaviors. Without these two restrictions, the social effects model, rather than offering an explanation for the rapidity of many fertility declines, instead provides good reason to expect fertility to be resistant to change.
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For this reason, the joining of cognitive psychology and social network research, as in Carley (this volume) , may be critical to the formulation of successful social effects models.
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provides much helpful guidance. IMPROVING RESEARCH ON SOCIAL EFFECTS Although several of the seminal contributions to the literature on innovation diffusion and fertility change were published a decade or more ago, systematic rigorous research on this topic both theoretical and empirical research is still in its infancy, with much of this work very recent.
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This applies to reproductive decisions, if not fertility outcomes then the direct determinants of fertility: marriages can be arranged, and contraception and induced abortion can be prohibited. In northern Ghana, for example, senior men are granted decision making authority over many aspects of young women's lives, and in effect operate as gatekeepers for the diffusion of innovative reproductive behaviors (Adongo et al., 1997~.
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~ TWO, the concept of social capital encompasses both the composition of the j other persons and the structure of the W., that is, the salience attached to the knowledge and actions of those otter persons. In this respect, although the concept of social capital would not appear to bear on the basic structure of the social effects model, it may well lead to significant improvements in the application of this model in empirical research, informing decisions
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Structure of Social Relations There has been a tendency in the fertility literature to view social effects as the outcome of informal social interaction in local personal social networks. These networks are often treated as unstructured, homogeneous, and static.
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However, because these effects operate over time and consist of interdependencies among community members, an assessment of the full impact of social effects on social change can only be obtained through the construction and estimation of social systems that contain the implied feedbacks. As yet, research on fertility change has hardly begun to entertain such system models, although a few scholars have made initial efforts in this direction (Durlauf and Walker, this volume; Kohler, 2000~.
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The Need for Empirical Data In light of the several-decades heritage of interest in applying innovation diffusion theory to the study of fertility transition, it is somewhat puzzling that the literature contains so few rigorous empirical studies. The most influential conceptual pieces were published more than a decade ago, and several of them more than two decades ago (Coale, 1973; Knodel and van de Walle, 1979; Watkins, 1986; Cleland and Wilson, 1987~.
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. In principle, social effects should be considered at all levels and via all mechanisms: personal social networks, local social organizations, influential elites, the mass media, and program personnel (health workers, school teachers, and so forth)
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.) As indicated above, the existing literature on fertility transition that was influenced by innovation diffusion theory tends to focus either on innovation What are the innovative attitudes or behaviors that diffuse?
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Carter's chapter serves as a caution against excessive enthusiasm for innovation diffusion theory. As noted earlier, the research literature on fertility transition contains examples of such excess enthusiasm.
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Watkins 1996 Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review 22~4~:639-682.
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Sinding 2000 Unmet need for family planning in developing countries and implications for population policy. Population and Development Review 26~4~:691-723.
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Godley 1998 Village Networks and Patterns of Contraceptive Choice. Unpublished paper presented at National Academy of Sciences Workshop on Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change in Developing Countries, January 29-30, 1998, Washington, D.C.
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Pramualratana 1984 Fertility transition in Thailand: A qualitative analysis. Population and Development Review 10~2~:297-328.
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1992 Culture and the fertility transition: Thoughts on theories of fertility decline. Genus 48~3-4~:1-14.
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1985 A theory of marital fertility transition. Population Studies 39~2~:249-268.
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van de Walle, E., and J Knodel 1967 Demographic transition and fertility decline: The European case.
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Population and Development Review 16~2~:241-272. 1991 More Lessons from the Past: Women's Informal Networks and Fertility Decline.
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