Demographic Assessment Techniques in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies Summary of a Workshop (2002) / Chapter Skim
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1Demographic Assessment Techniques in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies INTRODUCTION The term complex humanitarian emergency refers to a situation in which a civilian population is displaced from their homes by war or conflict. In addition, there is often a deterioration of living conditions and sometimes a significant increase in mortality, either in the short or long term.1 One of the primary and earliest challenges in a complex humanitarian emergency is to obtain accurate estimates of displaced populations and their mortality rates.
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2 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES presentations and discussion listed in the workshop agenda (see the appendices)
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 3 ods, considers where and when they are most useful, and discusses possible refinements. ESTIMATING POPULATION SIZE AND STRUCTURE When data are poor and conditions are difficult, there are two principal approaches for obtaining demographic estimates.
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4 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES sample, however, varies greatly depending on the time, money, and staff available, the logistical challenges encountered, and the intended use of the data. The greater the precision required of the estimate, generally, the larger the sample size will need to be.
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 5 the minimum number of clusters generally used for these types of surveys by field staff. In the first stage, probability proportional to size sampling (PPS)
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6 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES survey method assumes an equal probability selection of individuals, which may be an invalid assumption if cluster size estimates are inaccurate. In this case, weighted analyses can be done to obtain unbiased (or approximately unbiased)
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 7 common sense. Although this approach is an important tool that can be used systematically at the beginning of a crisis, further research is needed to improve the statistical validity of the method.17 Denis Coulombier of the Institut de Veille Sanitaire (the French National Institute for Public Health Surveillance)
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8 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES Qualitative Techniques Although qualitative methods are not the first to come to mind when thinking about how to estimate populations in emergency settings, they can offer some important insights for researchers throughout the various phases of a crisis. William Weiss of Johns Hopkins University gave a brief presentation on how qualitative techniques can assist those who are attempting to estimate forced migrant populations and their characteristics.
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 9 make sure that they truly understand the underlying demographic and social processes they are trying to measure. They should also be fluent in the language of the displaced and understand the political and social contexts of the population.20 In sum, the best sampling or estimation method for a given situation is context-specific.
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10 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES Using a handheld global positioning system unit, the team selected clusters of households from clinic catchment areas (the areas that individual clinics are supposed to serve)
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 11 field, and surveillance techniques need to be adapted for use in open populations (e.g., self-settled refugees)
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12 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES nal tribunals or truth commissions. Collecting and working with this type of data may be more akin to working with administrative data for historical demographic research.
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 13 Fordham University observed that it was so well done that even the Guatemalan army did not argue with the results. Capture-recapture methodology should be compared with typical demographic analyses (such as cluster sampling techniques, etc.)
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14 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES particular setting are important, needed resources. In addition, training on how to implement various methods for field workers is vital.
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 15 10 A confidence interval is a range of estimated values within which the true value of the population parameter (e.g., population size, mortality rate) can be expected to be located with a certain probability (i.e., degree of confidence)
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16 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES researchers were extremely limited in where they could travel, and the surveys were conducted under very dangerous conditions. 24 An event history is a timeline of personal life events often used in demographic research to study changes over time; migration histories and fertility histories are common examples.
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SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP 17 Kish, L 1965 Survey Sampling.
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