Cities Transformed Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World (2003) / Chapter Skim
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1. Introduction
1. Introduction
Pages 9-28
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From page 9... ...
From its center thrust impressive clusters of modern buildings; beyond them the metropolitan complex stretches as far as the eye can see. This is the foremost industrial center of Latin America, and a dominant presence in finance and trade.
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From page 10... ...
Cities are also the sites of diverse forms of social interaction, whether on the staging grounds of neighborhoods, through personal social networks, or within local community associations. The multiple social worlds inhabited by city residents must profoundly influence their outlooks and perceptions of life's possibilities.
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From page 11... ...
The chapter also describes the panel's charge, the main reasons for undertaking this study, and some of the major audiences for the report, with particular reference to the demographic research community. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION The neglect of urban research can only be reckoned astonishing when considered in light of the demographic transformations now under way.
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From page 12... ...
Hence, as can be seen in Figures 1-2 and 1-3, the net additions to the world's population will be found mainly in the cities and towns of poor countries. The prospects for the near future stand in stark contrast to what was seen during the period 1950 to 1975, when population growth was much more evenly divided between urban and rural areas.
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From page 13... ...
_ . _ '- 1 ,500 CO ct 1 ,000 Q Ct 500 13 Rural, All Countries Urban, Low- and Middle-lncome Urban, Hinh Income O1950-1975 1975-2000 2000-2030 Time Span FIGURE 1-2 Distribution of world population growth by urban/rural and national income level.
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From page 14... ...
Perhaps it is only natural that cities the size of Sao Paulo, Bangkok, Lagos, and Cairo come readily to mind when urban populations are considered. Yet for the foreseeable future, the majority of urban residents will reside in much smaller settlements, that is, in small cities with 100,000 to 250,000 residents and in towns with populations of less than 100,000.
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From page 15... ...
FIGURE 1-5 Net additions to urban population, by city size and national income level, 2000-2015. SOURCES: United Nations (2002a)
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Although poor countries have not yet reached the one-third mark, they are moving toward it. In 1975, only 9 percent of the national populations of poor countries
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From page 17... ...
Space and Measurement As countries urbanize and proportionately more of their citizens find homes in cities, the need grows for spatially disaggregated data on the conditions of urban life. It is difficult to imagine how cities can be governed effectively without such data.
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The urban megalopolis was estimated to contain 19.1 million residents.3 Evidently, one's choice of city definition can double or halve the reported city population and wholly reconfigure its socioeconomic profile. 3A still more expansive conception would acknowledge the system of cities in which Mexico City participates, including Toluca, Puebla, Cuernavaca, Queretaro, and Pachuca, among which the flows of people, goods, and services are considerable.
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From page 19... ...
If the extended region is taken to be the appropriate measure, the United Nations estimates of city population size are understated by half (Jones, 2002~. In addition, rates of population growth differ a good deal among the core, inner, and outer zones, with the inner zones growing much more rapidly than the official urban agglomeration.
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From page 20... ...
The social theories mentioned earlier concerning social learning and networks, reference groups, collective socialization, and the like also emphasize the potential benefits of diversity, and in this respect closely parallel the economic theories. Space figures centrally in urban economic and social theory because proximity facilitates the gathering and exchange of information, lessens the costs of transport, and makes possible the exercise of some beneficial social controls.
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From page 21... ...
were found to have exerted substantial influence on the pace of fertility decline.4 In what ways might fertility behavior be distinctively urban? Broadly speaking, the distinctive features have to do with the benefits of new family reproductive strategies, the costs of executing these strategies, and the features of urban social life that shape the perception of benefits and costs.
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From page 22... ...
Yet even as these funds have been cut, high rates of urban population growth have generally continued. Population growth has often taken the form of rapid, unplanned expansion of low-income settlements on the peripheries of large cities, where health and other public services are lacking.
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From page 23... ...
Cities, Their Regions, and the International Economy Spatially disaggregated data are needed to understand the influence of local contexts on fertility and health, and are of particular interest in zones where urban and rural activities are interpenetrating. In some geographic regions the phenomenon has been examined most closely in Southeast Asia rural economies and lifestyles appear to be undergoing a qualitative change, increasingly assuming characteristics that were formerly considered urban.
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From page 24... ...
Many poor countries are industrializing rapidly, while advanced economies are taking steps away from manufacturing into the sectors of finance, specialized services, and information technology. These changes are forcing countries and individual cities to rethink their comparative advantages.
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At present, demographic researchers are ill positioned to shed light on these matters. Although vigorous programs of urban research are under way in other fields including international health, political science, public finance, and, lately, economics the lack of activity in demographic research circles has left these fields without the benefit of demographic insight.
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From page 26... ...
. ec ge in SIX areas: · Urban population dynamics and city growth · Social and economic differentiation within and across cities · Fertility and reproductive health in urban areas · Mortality and morbidity in urban areas · Demographic implications of a changing global economy · The challenge of urban governance In each of these areas, the panel was charged with synthesizing results from existing and emerging research, as well as identifying new directions for research that are scientifically promising and have the potential to better integrate population and public policy.
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From page 27... ...
We relied heavily on a database created by linking individual DHS surveys with information on city population sizes taken from the United Nations' Demographic Yearbook, a publication that includes data for cities as small as 100,000 in population and all national capitals. (Chapter 4 reviews the many difficulties encountered in linking the survey and city data.)
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From page 28... ...
Chapters 6 and 7 then consider fertility and health, respectively, raising the question of whether there exist distinctively urban demographic regimes with distinctive implications for service delivery. The demographic changes examined in these chapters are rooted in the urban economy, which generates resources and establishes some of the constraints and costs that affect demographic behavior, and in urban governance, which influences how those resources are distributed and conflicting demands resolved.
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