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Estimating Climate Sensitivity Report of a Workshop (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Approaches for Estimating Climate Sensitivity
Pages 7-10

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 7...
... For example, in a global warming scenario in which sea ice retreats, the ice albedo temperature feedback decreases as the ice retreats, and the temperature sensitivity decreases correspondingly. Thus, the climate sensitivity that one should use in making projections has to be matched to the time scale and scenario for which the projections apply.
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From page 8...
... Sensitivity could be further constrained if we could reduce uncertainties in the radiative forcing. Gregory reviewed other approaches Hat have been used to develop es~arnates of climate sensi~avit~r including: equilibrium "slab" experiments with atmospheric models coupled to mixed-layer ocean models; time-dependent atmosphere-ocean climate model experiments; simple climate models constrained by the twentieth century temperature record, which are used to develop PDF of climate sensitivity and forcing; and paleoclimate records that are used as an observational constraint.
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From page 9...
... The single-value optimal estimation traces the value of the climate sensitivity in a domain of the model parameters that gives the best fit between the observed and simulated temperature changes. The multiple-value optimal estimation technique is based on multiple realizations of the single-value optimal estimation for the set of "surrogate observations." The surrogate observations are the sum of the simulated temperature departure and "surrogate residuals.'7 The surrogate residuals are obtained by randomly mixing (bootstapping3 the single observed residuals the difference between the observed and simulated temperature departures.
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From page 10...
... The total positive feedbacks that led to this remarkably large climate cooling came mainly from ice albedo, water vapor, and CO2 feedbacks. However, these inferred large positive feedbacks do not necessarily imply higher-~anexpected positive feedbacks in the human-caused climate warming problem Mat we currently face.
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Key Terms

  • radiative forcing
  • ocean heat
  • heat uptake
  • climate models
  • simple climate

  • optimal estimation
  • temperature changes
  • temperature record
  • solar irradiance
  • average temperature

  • aerosol radiative
  • ice retreats
  • simulated temperature
  • temperature change
  • global average

  • model parameters
  • decreases correspondingly
  • prove useful
  • reduce uncertainties
  • sea surface

  • widely separated
  • direct radiative
  • model coupled
  • paleoclimate data
  • randomly mixing

  • atmospheric model
  • temperature sensitivity
  • time scale
  • ice albedo
  • direct observations


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