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10. Decisionmaking and Recommendations for Future Research
Pages 232-248

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From page 232...
... In deciding whether to approve or disapprove the introduction of a nonnative oyster, either open-water aquaculture of sterile triploid oysters or deliberate establishment of a reproductive population, policymakers must weigh the potential risks and benefits associated with introducing a nonnative species. For the Chesapeake Bay region, policymakers have been unable to reach agreement on whether nonnative oysters should be part of the response to the collapse of the native oyster population.
From page 233...
... Current proposals to use the Suminoe oysters stipulate adherence to ICES protocols to minimize the risk of introducing a disease organism or other unwanted species. Although the nonnative oysters could become an unwelcome invasive species, this risk is probably lower than the risk of introducing a multitude of alien species incidental to an illegal rogue introduction.
From page 234...
... Similarly, restoring oyster populations will not necessarily lead to the restoration of a profitable fishery or to meaningful changes in water quality. Different stakeholders support the major goals for different reasons.
From page 235...
... Option 1 no use of nonnative oysters is unlikely to result in significant changes in oyster abundance in the bay in the near term. This outcome has moderate uncertainty, owing to external events or actions that might favor the recovery of native oyster populations (e.g., favorable climate change or success in restoration efforts employing selectively bred, disease-resistant stocks)
From page 236...
... If regulators enforce strict protocols for accountability and require collection of the biological, economic, and social information necessary to evaluate the risks and benefits of culturing or introducing the nonnative oyster, this management option could provide useful information to support decision analyses and risk assessments regarding the future use of nonnative oysters in the Chesapeake Bay. UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS AND COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS In evaluating the scientific evidence bearing on the potential risks and benefits of introducing a nonnative oyster into the Chesapeake Bay, the committee finds relatively little scientific support for many of the common assumptions that have shaped public discourse on this issue.
From page 237...
... Myth II: Oyster Restoration, Whether Native or Nonnative, Will Dramaticallv Imorove Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay The role of filter-feeding bivalves in estuarine ecosystems has been well documented (e.g., Dame, 1993) , but the conventional wisdom that either a disease-free native oyster or a nonnative oyster could repopulate the Chesapeake Bay to an extent that would restore water quality and dramatically improve the condition of the bay's living resources is unreasonably optimistic given current environmental conditions.
From page 238...
... Intensive triploid aquaculture, similar to some of the coastal bays and lagoons in France where the Pacific oyster is raised, could increase filtration enough to improve water clarity in some of the shallow, retention-type tributaries of the bay. If diploid nonnative oysters were introduced and populated the bay, water clarity in shallow reaches could improve, an outcome similar to the zebra mussel invasion of the Great Lakes.
From page 239...
... Myth III: Restoration of Native Oyster Populations Has Been Tried and Will Not Work Disenchantment with the failure of restoration efforts is evident in press accounts and the testimony received by the committee at its public meetings. While current advocates of restoration may claim that past expectations were too high and that signs of limited success exist, it is clear that despite the considerable resources that have been expended, largescale reversals in the decline of native oyster populations have not been achieved.
From page 240...
... ariakensis Will Solve the Economic Problems of a Devastated Fishery and Restore the Ecological Services Once Provided by the Native Oyster The primary motivation for pursuing triploid aquaculture of C ariakensis is to reduce the risk of establishing a reproductive population of nonnative oysters in the bay.
From page 241...
... Most importantly, the public should be educated about the risks of unregulated introduction of nonnative oysters to increase awareness and vigilance. Development of Standards for Regulating Nonnative Oyster Aquaculture Before the commencement of open-water aquaculture (or pilot-scale field trials)
From page 242...
... Biological Research Large gaps in biological knowledge exist for both native and nonnative oysters, and the biology of both species needs to be understood in the broader context of long-term environmental change in the Chesapeake Bay. The committee thus recommends a spectrum of biological research to provide information for risk assessments of the three management options, from specific near-term objectives to broader longer-term research goals.
From page 243...
... Longer-term research goals, though not immediately applicable to a decision about introducing the nonnative oyster within the next few months or years, are needed, nevertheless, to address larger questions about the ecological role and future abundance or success of native and nonnative oysters in the Chesapeake Bay: develop an integrated approach to understanding the responses of native and nonnative oysters to environmental change and multiple stressors, including naturally occurring or introduced dis
From page 244...
... Integrate the resulting disease-tolerant or disease-resistant stocks into the restoration of protected sanctuary areas that favor local recruitment, as recommended by Allen and Hilbish (2000~. Perform a cost-benefit analysis of an integrated restoration program; · develop a model of oyster larval dispersion based on a detailed circulation model for the Chesapeake Bay; incorporate information about differences in the larval behavior or physiological performance between the native and nonnative oysters to predict their dispersal throughout and outside the Chesapeake Bay; · determine the causes of recruitment success or failure for C
From page 245...
... appears well positioned to assume monitoring and oversight authority, its decisions are nonbinding. Moreover, the CBP does not appear to have sufficient budget or personnel resources to support analyses of the ecological, economic, or sociocultural consequences of alternative management actions.
From page 246...
... Recent trends in the economic and sociocultural data series and likely ongoing trends also need to be documented to help isolate postimplementation changes that are a direct result of management action as opposed to the continuation of prior trends. Economic Feasibility of Alternative Production Systems Restoring oyster production to 1985 production levels using the same old production technologies operating under the same old institutional arrangements is unlikely to yield profits comparable to those realized in 1985; much of the rest of the world has moved past the hunter-gatherer stage of oyster production.
From page 247...
... The analysis should include expected net benefits and the variance of expected net benefits for harvesting and processing sectors in Maryland and Virginia for probable levels of recovery at different time points on the recovery schedule. Establish an Ongoing Economic and Sociocultural Data Collection Program The ability of social scientists to predict or evaluate the outcomes of contemplated management actions is impaired by a lack of baseline data and a lack of postimplementation data.
From page 248...
... Such data should include economic information on production costs, including capital and labor expenditures, market trends and marketing practices, and changes in economic strategies and decision making in response to changes in the fishery. Sociocultural information should be collected on household- and community-level responses to changes in the oyster fishery and how such changes modify traditional sociocultural norms of such communities.


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