Summary of a Workshop on U.S. Natural Gas Demand, Supply, and Technology Looking Toward the Future (2003) / Chapter Skim
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4. Meeting U.S. Natural Gas Demand
4. Meeting U.S. Natural Gas Demand
Pages 49-76
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From page 49... ...
In the past decade, daily natural gas production in the United States grew from about 40 Bcf/day in the early 1990s to about 48 Bcf/day in 1997 (see Figure 4.1~. Production trends from 1997 through 2002 remained relatively flat despite a doubling in the gas rig count from 1999 to 2001 (Naresh Kumar, Growth Oil and Gas, personal communication, 2003~.
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From page 50... ...
~ 900 ~ 800 700 600 ~ 500 an ~ 400 300 ~ 200 -100 FIGURE 4.1 U.S. daily wet natural gas production from gas wells by year of production start for the period 1990 to 2006.
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From page 51... ...
Reliable supplies will require improved transportation networks and improved storage capacity (Colleen Sen, Gas Technology Institute, personal communication, 2003~.
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52 in in CD s U' Q S O s in ~ CD U)
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U.S. SOURCES OF NATURAL GAS The committee and workshop participants discussed several critical factors that influence projected supplies of natural gas from U.S.
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From page 54... ...
SOURCE: Greg Stringham, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, personal communication, 2003. Access and Regulatory Issues As discussed at the workshop, access to remaining resource areas rich in natural gas in the United States is currently constrained by areas wholly or partially off-limits to leasing, including the offshore East Coast, offshore West Coast, portions of the offshore eastern Gulf of Mexico (including offshore Florida)
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From page 55... ...
estimates that 137 Tcf, or about 40 percent of the remaining gas resource in the Rocky Mountains, is on federal lands currently closed to exploration or under restrictive provisions. Similar operational and regulatory challenges exist in Canada, where federal and provincial reforms are under way to create a more efficient regulatory "road map" (Greg Stringham, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, personal communication, 2003~.
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From page 56... ...
SOURCE: James Emme, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, personal communication, 2003.
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From page 57... ...
SOURCE: Mary Hutzler, EIA, personal communication, 2003. Data are from EIA (2003a)
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From page 58... ...
. Workshop participants noted that recent examples of important drill~ng and completion technology breakthroughs exist in virtually all U.S.
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From page 59... ...
Enhanced capabilities, lower costs, and improved cycle times now allow fields as small as 250 Bcf to 300 Bcf to be economically developed. Minimum reserve thresholds will likely continue to drop over time, significantly increasing estimates of economically recoverable deepwater resources (lames Emme, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, personal communication, 2003~.
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From page 60... ...
SOURCE: Keith Millheim, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, personal communication, 2003. test of onshore gas hydrate deposits funded by the U.S.
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From page 61... ...
Notwithstanding declining trends in both research and development funding and college degrees granted, technology continues to evolve. It was suggested at the workshop that the United States is "off pace" to achieve long-term goals without commitment and cooperation between both private and public sectors (Naresh Kumar, Growth Oil and Gas, personal communication, 2003~.
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From page 62... ...
SOURCE: Naresh Kumar, Growth Oil and Gas, personal communication, 2003. Data are from Wolfe, 2000.
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This means that the Asian curve includes math, computer science, agricultural, and biological sciences. SOURCE: Richard Smalley and Emmanuelle Schuler, Rice University, personal communication, 2003.
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. New economic incentives currently being considered include offshore deep-shelf royalty relief (Richie Baud, Minerals Management Service, personal communication, 2003)
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SOURCE: Naresh Kumar, Growth Oil and Gas, personal communication, 2003. and on the North Slope in the eastern National Petroleum Reserve Alaska.
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From page 67... ...
Canada's immediate production potential is tied to performance in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Future natural gas production growth depends on accessing unconventional reservoirs, such as coalbed methane, in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin and conventional resources in the Mackenzie Delta and offshore East Coast (Greg Stringham, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, personal communication, 2003~.
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From page 68... ...
(Greg Stringham, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, personal communication, 2003~. The Canadian National Energy Board estimates of Canada's total remaining natural gas resource range from 235 to 462 Tcf, with significant contributions from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, coalbed methane, Mackenzie Delta and the East Coast (see Figure 3.8~.
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From page 69... ...
18 16 14 12 10~c' m 86 42 O, , r , I I I , , r 5~ 5~ 5~ 5~ 5~ 5~' 5~' 5~' ~~' ~~' As, En, Year · 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 ~ 1995 ED 1994 13 1993 1~ 1992 m 1991 1990 m pre90 ~ Solution FIGURE 4.20 Western Canada Sedimentary Basin marketable gas production grouped by connection year for the period January 1990 to January 2001. SOURCE: Greg Stringham, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, personal communication, 2003.
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From page 70... ...
SOURCE: Greg Stringham, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, personal communication, 2003. Data are from the Canadian National Energy Board (2003~.
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From page 71... ...
In either case, about half of the anticipated production of about 1 bcf/day could be consumed internally to fuel Canada's expanding heavy oil development (see Chapter 2~. As in the United States, Canada's challenges to grow its natural gas production will depend on access to resource, regulatory, and fiscal regimes and the pace of technological improvements.
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From page 72... ...
LNG currently supplies less than 2 percent of U.S. consumption, or about 229 Bcf in 2002 (Colleen Sen, Gas Technology Institute, personal communication,2003~.
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The LNG industry faces challenges in the United States due to perceived environmental safety, security, and aesthetic concerns, despite a sterling safety record (Colleen Sen, Gas Technology Institute, personal communication, 2003~. Recent protests of planned terminals in Radio Island, North Carolina, and Vallejo, California, have led to their subsequent withdrawals.
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From page 74... ...
SOURCE: Colleen Sen, Gas Technology Institute, personal communication, 2003. TABLE 4.1 Status of LNG Terminals Terminal Location Owner Peak Sendout Plus Expansion Capacity (Bcf/day)
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From page 75... ...
Workshop participants suggested that some common keys to increasing mid- to long-term gas supplies from U.S. and Canadian basins include increased access to the resource, more efficient and competitive fiscal and regulatory regimes, rapid technological improvements (with emphasis on the development of unconventional reservoirs and conventional deepwater and frontier resources)
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From page 76... ...
Both of these alternatives are capital intensive, and as such, up-front investments may lag near- to mid-term demand shortfalls (i.e., demand cycles will continue to result in price and storage volume volatility until these projects are in place)
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