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Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation and Methods of Combining Test Information for the Stryker Family of Vehicles and Related Army Systems Phase II Report (2004) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Further Details Concerning the Bearing Cage Example
Pages 81-84

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From page 81...
... With respect to the Bayesian analysis, this appendix provides two plots, the first of the prior distribution for B10 and A, and the second for the posterior distribution for B10 and p. Both plots have the data likelihood superimposed.
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From page 82...
... _ ct. .05 ~ .02 .O .01 cd .005 IL .003 .001 .0005 0002 .0001 .00005 .00003 ., ., by= 12320 ~=2 1 1 1 · 1 1 1 200 500 1,000 2,000 Hours of Service 5,000 1 0,000 FIGURE A-2 Weibull probability plot of the bearing cage failure data showing the maximum likelihood estimate of fraction failing with fixed ,0 = 2, the reliability target, and approximate confidence limits.
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From page 83...
... _ IL .02 ~ a` o .u1 C.) .005 ~ .003 IL 83 77= 5409 p=3 I ~ I ~ I ~ ~ T ~ ~ 200 500 1,000 2,000 Hours of Service 5,000 1 0,000 FIGURE A-3 Weibull probability plot of the bearing cage failure data showing the maximum likelihood estimate of the fraction failing with fixed ,0 = 3, the reliability target, and approximate confidence limits.
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From page 84...
... ~~\ ~ U 1 ~1 500 1,000 2,000 5,000 B10 1 o,ooo 20,000 FIGURE A-5 Sample points from the jointposteriordistribution of B10 of bearing cage life and the Weibull ~ with the data likelihood superimposed.
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Key Terms

  • cage failure
  • maximum likelihood
  • approximate confidence
  • probability plot
  • reliability target

  • weibull probability
  • likelihood estimate
  • fraction failing
  • failure data
  • likelihood superimposed

  • frequentist analysis
  • cage life
  • data likelihood
  • confidence limits
  • appendix provides

  • additional probability
  • provides additional
  • cage data
  • prior distribution
  • overall conclusion

  • reliability goal
  • bayes analysis
  • probability plots
  • relative likelihood
  • little optimism

  • likelihood contours
  • conclusion suggested
  • joint prior
  • analysis figure
  • posterior distribution


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