The Geological Record of Ecological Dynamics Understanding the Biotic Effects of Future Environmental Change (2005) / Chapter Skim
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5 Conclusions and Recommendations
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 148-164
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From page 148... ...
Both wild and managed biological resources are of extraordinary significance for human welfare, and consequently how they change in response to climatic and other environmental change is of great importance. If we are to achieve this goal, analysis of the geologic record needs to become a full partner to the empirical analysis and modeling of present day biological systems.
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From page 149... ...
In the past, geohistorical analysis has received little effort compared with that expended on ecological modeling, modern observations, and manipulative experiments. This is despite the extraordinary potential of the geologic record for yielding essential information on patterns and processes of biotic response to environmental change.
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From page 150... ...
INITIATIVE 1: THE GEOLOGIC RECORD AS AN ECOLOGICAL LABORATORY Recommendation: A deeper understanding of the origin, maintenance, and distribution of biodiversity and its impor tance to ecological systems is urgently needed. It is essential to expand fundamental research using the longer time perspec tives of the geologic record to frame and test ecological theo ries at appropriate scales while encompassing a full range of earth conditions.
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From page 151... ...
As a result, ecological studies based on direct observation of current systems provide an inadequate sample of the array of biotic responses to climate change and of the potential consequences for biodiversity and biogeochemistry. Understanding biotic responses to climate changes of the past is pivotal to forecasting how ecological systems are likely to respond to ongoing and future climate changes, whether natural or anthropogenic.
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From page 152... ...
Just as paleoclimate records were critical to identifying important properties of Earth's climate system and assessing risks and vulnerabilities to future change, paleoecological records of biotic responses to past climate change are critical to forecasting ecological responses to future change and assessing risks and vulnerabilities. INITIATIVE 3: ECOLOGICAL LEGACIES OF SOCIETAL ACTIVITIES Recommendation: Societal activities have impinged on the natural world in many ways, but the consequences and possible solutions to these impacts are unclear when some impacts are difficult to distinguish from non-anthropogenic variation.
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From page 153... ...
Federal research funding on the geologic record of ecological dynamics has not kept pace with the increased costs of geochemical analyses, highprecision dating, large numbers of samples, the establishment of databases vital to synthetic studies, and the need for collaboration among investigators and students from multiple disciplines. In addition, funding has not kept pace with the increased interest in this topic within the scientific community that has resulted from society's increasing need to predict and manage future biotic change.
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From page 154... ...
, which has oversight over the Foundation's environmental science portfolio, should include one or more individuals with expertise in geohistorical records relevant to biosphere analysis. Accordingly, we see two modes of support within NSF for geohistorical analysis of ecological dynamics, one through core programs for smaller projects, and the other through cross-divisional and cross-directorate initiatives intended to stimulate collaborative research on this topic.
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From page 155... ...
Geological Survey (USGS) of both geologic and biologic expertise is highly favorable for integrative, collaborative efforts using geologic records of biological systems, and, in particular, Initiative III (Ecological Legacies of Societal Activities)
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From page 156... ...
In many cases, the best potential areas for obtaining geohistorical records may be outside the boundaries of specific LTER sites, but such geohistorical records can provide representative case studies or regional perspectives relevant to the individual LTER missions. Notwithstanding the potential advantages of connecting LTER observations to adjacent geohistorical records, excellent geohistorical records should be sought in places where they can address critical ecological problems -- in estuaries, reefs, tropical lakes, and habitats now strongly affected by societal activities.
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From page 157... ...
project of the USGS, which targeted global paleoclimates of the Pliocene, demonstrates how federal agencies with intramural researchers can lead collaborative projects, although the focus of this particular project was more on physical environmental reconstruction and improved age determination than biotic response. This collaboration demonstrates the con 1See http://www.stri.org/english/research/programs/programs_information/ panama_paleoecology.php.
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From page 158... ...
Private, non-profit, federal, and state organizations are all potential sponsors of such efforts. Databases and Collections Recommendation: Publicly available databases and natural history collections can promote collaboration, reduce dupli cated effort, facilitate large-scale synthetic studies, and provide critical and at times irreplaceable data and research opportuni ties.
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From page 159... ...
The original sites of many collections are no longer accessible and live-collected specimens from periods before extensive human impact provide irreplaceable and invaluable baselines. Preserving and curating existing collections will require significant allocations of space as well as some ongoing input of curatorial resources, but without such collections, attempts to characterize past biotic and environmental change and understand their interconnections will be severely compromised.
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From page 160... ...
greater understanding of the temporal resolution of fossil assemblages themselves; and (3) improved tools for correlation -- the assignment of isolated geohistorical records to a high-precision timescale.
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From page 161... ...
The new NSF-funded amino acid racemization dating laboratory at Northern Arizona University may serve as a model for a facility that provides dates at a cost-effective price to a broad community of users. Increased attention is also needed for improved high-resolution correlation between stratigraphic sections, allowing the assignment of isolated geohistorical records to a high-precision geologic timescale.
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From page 162... ...
Proxy indicators of past environmental change provide the essential evidence needed to assess the nature, rate, and magnitude of the biotic response to that change. Additional research is needed to develop proxy indicators that can be applied in older geohistorical records, to evaluate the preservation of geochemical proxies, and to develop measures of short-term environmental variability.
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From page 163... ...
Ongoing federal funding initiatives centered on past climate change and variability do not currently encourage such coordination. ERPCC is an initiative aimed at documenting ecological responses to past climate change and assessing their implications for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services in the face of global change.
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From page 164... ...
Only geohistorical data -- the organic remains, biogeochemical signals, and associated sediments of the geological record -- can provide a time perspective sufficiently long to establish the full range of natural variability of complex biological systems, and to discriminate natural perturbations in such systems from those induced or magnified by humans. Such data are crucial for acquiring the necessary long-term perspective on modern systems.
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