Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades The First Biennial Review, 2006 (2007) / Chapter Skim
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4 The Use of Science in Decision Making
4 The Use of Science in Decision Making
Pages 86-129
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From page 86... ...
Science and research have a long and rich history in South Florida, beginning in the mid-1800s with land surveys and collection of information on pre-drainage wildlife and vegetation conditions. Volumes of scientific studies were available by the late 1980s to support efforts to restore the Everglades.
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From page 87... ...
, and the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan Adaptive Management Strategy (RECOVER, 2005c; superseded by RECOVER, 2006a)
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The monitoring plan is based on conceptual models of 11 physiographic regions (Figure 4-1) and of the entire South Florida ecosystem (i.e., Total System Conceptual Model)
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The Use of Science in Decision Making 89 FIGURE 4-1 Boundaries of the 11 conceptual ecological models.
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. Examples of performance measures in clude the number and duration of dry events in Shark River Slough, sulfate concentrations in surface waters of the Everglades ecosystem, mangrove forest production and soil accretion, and wading bird nesting patterns.
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FIGURE 4-2 Example of 1 of the 11 conceptual ecological models that serve as the basis of the Monitoring and Assessment Plan. SOURCE: Adapted from Davis et al.
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From page 92... ...
the MAP component level, (2) the module level (i.e., Greater Everglades, Southern Estuaries, Northern Estuaries, Lake Okeechobee, South Florida Hydrology Monitoring Module, and South Florida Mercury Bioaccumulation Module)
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From page 93... ...
Change • Conduct power analysis • Characterize spatio -temporal patterns Establish Reference Conditions • Consistent/compatible with MAP • Meet detecting measurable change criteria Establish Reference • Experimental design criteria: replication Condition randomization, and stratification/blocking • Object-oriented databases • Must satisfy data integrity requirements Measure Change from Reference Condition Measure Change • Determine direction and magnitude of From Reference change in PMs • Estimate confidence of measured change Condition • Characterize episodic events • Evaluate the efficacy of the experimental design Module Level Assess Module -level Status and Trends of Hypotheses, Goals, PMs Integrate PMs • Integrate and interpret MAP PI annual reports To Evaluate • Evaluate utility of non -MAP Hypotheses & research and monitoring • Integrate water quality input IG/IT • Review progress toward achieving IG/IT • Identify unexpected and episodic events Evaluate System-wide Status of System Level Hypotheses and Goals Evaluate • Synthesize and interpret across modules and System-Wide years Performance • Review the progress toward achieving IG/IT • Evaluate whether corrective actions should be considered RECOVER Technical Report CEM = Conceptual Ecological Model PM = Performance Measure PI = Principle Investigator DQOs= Data Quality Objective IG/IT = Interim Goals and Interim Targets FIGURE 4-3 MAP technical assessment process.
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From page 94... ...
The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan System-wide Perfor mance Measures report (PM report; RECOVER, 2006b) describes in detail the development of each performance measure, how it relates to the con ceptual ecological models, and how it can be used to evaluate the predicted performance of the CERP or to assess the status of the ecosystem before and after CERP project implementation.
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From page 95... ...
Nevertheless, the committee utilized information in the most recent PM report draft to support its findings. The Quality Assurance Systems Requirement Manual for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (QASR; RECOVER, 2006c)
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2. Restoration goals, objectives, and targets were inadequately defined and not reconciled with the large-scale forces of change in South Florida.
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The information generated by these annual assessments will be invaluable to CERP's adaptive management strategy. As RECOVER continues to implement MAP I monitoring projects and works through pilot assessments to test the strategies set out in MAP II, limitations of these documents will be uncovered.
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From page 98... ...
However, ultimately, the success of the restoration will be judged by the system's ecological response. Yet, in the near term, and of 1Whole-system performance measures must not be confused with metrics for multicriteria decision making, which provide a quantitative framework to evaluate trade-offs among resto ration goals as the uncertainties associated with the CERP are reduced, plans for project design are refined, and restoration goals are reevaluated.
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, and Everglades National Park in the Lake Okeechobee area and the Everglades ecosystem (RECOVER, 2004)
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These types of data are especially limited in the Water Conservation Areas and Everglades National Park. Rapid Implementation of the MAP MAP I noted that the monitoring program would be phased in over 2 years (fiscal years 2003 and 2004)
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From page 101... ...
Documentation of temporal variability in performance measures and how they respond to water management will provide information invaluable to RECOVER's efforts to assess and evaluate the impacts of the CERP on the ecosystem. Sustainability of the MAP There are neither sufficient funds nor staff available to fully implement the monitoring projects described in MAP I or to address critical monitoring plan uncertainties.
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, or (3) major environmental change (e.g., hydrology, fire, water quality)
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, southern estuaries (Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, and the southwestern mangrove estuaries) , Lake Okeechobee, and the Greater Everglades (includes the ridge and slough, southern marl prairies, Florida Bay mangrove estuaries, and the Big Cypress basin)
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From page 104... ...
. The combination of monitoring networks, experimen tation, and assessment laid out in the MAP has the potential to reduce uncertainty associated with the conceptual ecological models, provide new knowledge to understand old and emerging problems, lead to better simula tions of the system, and help to identify information gaps to support adap tive management.
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. The National Park Service coordinates the CESI to provide scientific information for South Florida ecosystem restoration and for management decisions on Department of the Interior lands.
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From page 106... ...
Therefore, RECOVER has emerged as the de facto effective leader in scientific coordination and synthesis in the South Florida ecosystem res toration effort, even though RECOVER was created to supply scientific and technical information specifically for CERP. Although RECOVER's MAP does attempt to synthesize data across agen cies, including both CERP and non-CERP projects, many of the projects critical to the restoration are outside the scope of the CERP and will not be systematically addressed by RECOVER because of the focused mission of the program and a lack of resources.
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From page 107... ...
A potential downside to active adaptive management is that management actions may be delayed, allowing the system to deteriorate while learning occurs. Progress in Developing Adaptive Management Within CERP GAO (2003)
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The interim goals and interim targets are model predictions of how the indicators will respond as individual CERP projects come online and are operated. For example, the American oyster is used as an indicator of the condition of the northern freshwater estuaries.
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. The primary reliance on passive adaptive management and obstacles to active adaptive management approaches -- long a criticism of the CERP -- remain challenges.
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the CERP update process. Adaptive management within CERP planning (box 1 of Figure 4-5)
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Incremental progress will be measured relative to a reference condition (a set of ecosystem measures at specified times and places; also called a baseline) and to the interim goals and interim targets as specified by the Programmatic Regulations (see Box 4-4)
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Even though some anticipated responses can take a long time to be fully expressed, adaptive management provides critical insights into whether responses are on the right track before it is too late. Opportunities for Active Adaptive Management Uncertainties about components of the functioning of the Everglades ecosystem, and the degree to which functional properties can be restored under the dramatically changed environment in South Florida, are substan tial.
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From page 113... ...
Chapter 6 provides additional suggestions for the use of active adaptive management in the context of a proposed new approach for incremental adaptive restoration. Requisites for Effective Adaptive Management in the CERP The CERP AM Strategy relies on a complex array of interacting activities, which, if they are not completed successfully or effectively articulated among the boxes (see Figure 4-5)
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From page 114... ...
Multilevel Planning and Decision Making There are multiple levels of planning and decision making that must be coherently integrated for the AM Strategy to be effective. For the South Florida ecosystem, the AM Strategy requires effective integration from the project level to the system level and in the reverse direction as well.
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From page 115... ...
As abstract representations and simplifications of the complex real world, models are useful tools for integrating and updating current knowledge of a system and for identifying and prioritizing critical uncertainties. In restoring a system as large and complicated as the South Florida ecosystem, multiple models are necessary because of the need to examine a variety of components and processes across multiple regions and scales.
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From page 116... ...
The following sections review the current state of restoration modeling and compare it against modeling needs for effective adaptive management. Hydrologic, Hydraulic, Hydrodynamic, and Water Quality Models The two primary models in restoration planning are regional hydrologic models: the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM)
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, developed from alternative runs of the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and the Natural System Model (NSM)
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These the Central and South Florida Projects models range from highly parameterized, Comprehensive Review Study (Restudy) mechanistic individual-based models (e.g., EVERKITE, SIMSPAR)
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The Use of Science in Decision Making 119 Scale (Spatial Extent; Resolution) Status Developers/Sources Regional; 500 × 500 m More models are being http://www.atlss.org/ developed and calibrated Local, at the scale of STA Plans to improve user W
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SFWMM South Florida Water Management Model Regional Modeling for the Everglades simulates hydrology and water systems Agriculture Area Storage Reservoir and is widely accepted as the best available tool for analyzing structural and/or operational changes to the complex water management system in South Florida at the regional scale. SICS Southern Inland and Coastal Systems Linking with SFWMM and the Florida Bay numerical model simulates hydrologic hydrodynamic model to project coastal conditions for the transition zone between flows to Florida Bay and coastal wetland the wetlands of Taylor Slough and C-111 salinities under restoration conditions in canal and nearshore embayments of the future Florida Bay.
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The Use of Science in Decision Making 121 Scale (Spatial Extent; Resolution) Status Developers/Sources Regional, adaptable to Activities related to REMER USACE subregional and local terminated in 2006 (Cheng et al., 2005)
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An important recent development is the effort to address this problem by constructing new models with higher spatial resolutions. One such model under development is the South Florida Regional Simulation Model (SFRSM)
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than hydrologic and water quality models. The conceptual ecological models (see Figures 4-1 and 4-2)
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For example, the ridge-and-slough landscape, one of the major habitat types in the Everglades ecosystem, consists of parallel and usually submerged ridges and sloughs with height differentials of less than 3 feet (Figure 4-7)
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system. Despite these efforts to improve the resolution of Everglades topography, hydrologic models remain limited by topographic data, and they are unlikely to be able to produce improved predictions unless they use terrain data with greater resolution.
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From page 126... ...
First, in addition to the limited linkage between the primary hydrologic models and ecological models and the relatively slow development of quan titative ecological models, the lack of linkage among water quality and ecological models is a particularly important problem at the subregional level (e.g., Lake Okeechobee water quality model) as well as at the regional level.
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From page 127... ...
It is important that the role of each model in the adaptive management process be well defined in terms of the processes it addresses, how it is to be modified based on feedback from monitoring, and the way it is to be used to inform decision making. In 2003, the Interagency Modeling Center was established to provide a centralized pool of resources and modeling expertise (DOI, 2004)
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From page 128... ...
In combination, the MAP provides an approach to reduce uncertainty associated with the con ceptual ecological models that are the foundation of the monitoring plan and to create new knowledge for understanding old and emerging prob lems. The MAP should also lead to better simulations of the ecosystem and help identify information gaps that currently impede adaptive management.
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From page 129... ...
A coordinated, multidisciplinary approach is required to improve modeling tools and focus modeling efforts toward direct support of the CERP adaptive management process. Models are used to forecast the short- and long-term responses of the South Florida ecosystem to CERP projects and, thus, are the critical starting point for adaptive management.
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