Skip to main content

Climate in Earth History Studies in Geophysics (1982) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:

1 The Role of Prediction in Paleonclimatology
Pages 19-25

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 21...
... Initially, these explanations are likely to be ad hoc in nature, verbal in form, and therefore difficult to pin down and test. Gradually, as data accumulate and as physical insights into causal mechanisms improve, it may be possible to transform such qualitative explanations into a numerical model of the natural system in which specific responses (system output)
Read the entire page →
From page 23...
... Such models of intermediate complexity predict the behavior of only a small number of climatic variables. At bbe other end of the range of complexity, more of the underlying physics is explicitly captured in differential equations, and fewer processes are treated statistically.
Read the entire page →
From page 24...
... The rerpome function has a mean time constant of 17,000 years and a ratio Of 4:1 between the time constants of glacial growth and mellow. Lower curve shows the System response to an arbitrary step input (Imhrie and Imbrie, 1980, copyright 1980 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science)
Read the entire page →
From page 25...
... Here it is open tempting to explain a given climatic change in terms of a correlated change in some particular aspect of the geometry of continents and oceans—ignoring other aspects of that geometry and implicidy denying the possibility that changes in atmospheric chemistry, in solar output, or in other climatic boundary conditions may be involved. In the rapidly developing and challenging field of paleoclimatology, there is clearly an urgent need to test our ideas about the underlying physical mechanisms by developing quantitative, predictive models.
Read the entire page →

Key Terms

  • time scale
  • forcing function
  • pacific wind
  • predictive models
  • climate models

  • global geography
  • glacial history
  • complex equilibrium
  • climatic change
  • global ice

  • atmospheric temperature
  • stochastic climate
  • causal mechanisms
  • temperature field
  • forecast mode

  • forcing functions
  • past climates
  • glacial maximum
  • equilibrium response
  • verbal narratives

  • orbital geometry
  • differential equations
  • quantitative predictions
  • wind field
  • orygen isotope

  • evasive verbal
  • upper curve
  • physical mechanisms
  • climate modeling
  • fewer processes


    • This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
    More information on Chapter Skim is available.