Earth Science and Applications from Space National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (2007) / Chapter Skim
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2 The Next Decade of Earth Observations from Space
2 The Next Decade of Earth Observations from Space
Pages 27-60
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From page 27... ...
Although they are but one part of the requisite Earth information system, space-based measurements provide unique and key data for analyzing Earth as a global system of interconnected human activities and natural processes. With the development of a resilient and effective Earth information system, the recommended observations will strengthen the global Earth system science framework for informing decision making to address emerging regional and global challenges, including the following: • Changing ice sheets and sea level.
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From page 28... ...
The next 20 years must bring a new level of integration in the understanding of Earth-system components. The Earth observation plan presented here distills into a core set of space-based missions many of the key measurements needed across the range of interrelated societal challenges and Earth science areas shown in Figure 2.2.
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From page 29... ...
2.2 all new provide critical new observations and data for addressing emerging societal issues and for enabling major advances in scientific understanding. The recommended missions address what are considered to be the highest-priority observational needs.
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From page 30... ...
In addition, USGS and NASA have continued their collaboration on ecosystem science and related societal benefit areas through the Landsat mission series. The result of these efforts has been a steadily increasing number of space-based observa BOX 2.1 eMerGiNG appLicatiONs usiNG pOes aNd GOes OperatiONaL MeasureMeNts In addition to its primary role in weather forecasting, NOAA has been working with other agencies and institutions to create operational data products that support capabilities in areas of benefit to society such as fire detection and air quality monitoring.
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From page 31... ...
. This reduction, if it persists, translates to approximately $4 billion less to develop Earth science missions over the next decade.
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From page 32... ...
140 120 Number of Instruments 100 Solid Earth Water Cycle 80 Ecosystems 60 Climate Weather 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year FIGURE 2.4 Number of U.S. space-based Earth Observation instruments in the current decade.
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From page 33... ...
future scenario runs with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's CCSM3 show abrupt transitions in September sea ice cover. In the most dramatic event, shown here, the ice cover goes in a decade from conditions similar to those observed in the fig 2.5 1990s to essentially September ice-free conditions.
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From page 34... ...
. FIGURE 2.7 NOAA NESDIS budget for Earth science applications and research, 1996 to 2012 (in fixed FY 2006 dollars)
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From page 35... ...
The continuity of several measurements is of sufficient importance to climate research, ozone monitoring, or operational weather systems to deserve immediate attention. Those for climate include total solar irradiance and Earth radiation; for ozone, ozone limb sounding capability and total solar irradiance; and for weather, sea-surface vector winds and temperature and water vapor soundings from geostationary and polar orbits.
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From page 36... ...
As explained in the description of the CLARREO mission in Chapter 4, the committee recommends that the CERES Earth radiation budget instrument and a total solar irradiance sensor be flown on the NPP satellite and that these instruments or their equivalent be carried on the NPOESS spacecraft or another suitable platform. 8GOES-R is the designation for the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites (GOES)
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From page 37... ...
The committee also recommends that NASA continue to seek cost-effective, innovative means for obtaining information on land cover change. By maintaining sustained measurements of these key climate and weather variables, the nation will be in a good position to achieve the integrated Earth information system envisioned by the committee for the next decade.
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From page 38... ...
These are vector sea-surface winds; gPS radio occultation temperature, water vapor, and electron density soundings; and total solar irradiance (restored to NPOESS)
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From page 39... ...
SMAP Soil moisture and freeze-thaw for weather and LEO, SSO L-band radar 300 water cycle processes L-band radiometer ICESat-II Ice sheet height changes for climate change LEO, Laser altimeter 300 diagnosis Non-SSO DESDynI Surface and ice sheet deformation for LEO, SSO L-band InSAR 700 understanding natural hazards and climate; Laser altimeter vegetation structure for ecosystem health 2013-2016 HyspIRI Land surface composition for agriculture and LEO, SSO Hyperspectral spectrometer 300 mineral characterization; vegetation types for ecosystem health ASCENDS Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2 column LEO, SSO Multifrequency laser 400 integrals for climate emissions SWOT Ocean, lake, and river water levels for ocean LEO, SSO Ka- or Ku-band radar 450 and inland water dynamics Ku-band altimeter Microwave radiometer GEO-CAPE Atmospheric gas columns for air quality GEO High-spatial-resolution 550 forecasts; ocean color for coastal ecosystem hyperspectral spectrometer health and climate emissions Low-spatial-resolution imaging spectrometer IR correlation radiometer ACE Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate and LEO, SSO Backscatter lidar 800 water cycle; ocean color for open ocean Multiangle polarimeter biogeochemistry Doppler radar 2016-2020 LIST Land surface topography for landslide hazards LEO, SSO Laser altimeter 300 and water runoff PATH High-frequency, all-weather temperature and GEO Microwave array spectrometer 450 humidity soundings for weather forecasting and sea-surface temperatureb GRACE-II High-temporal-resolution gravity fields for LEO, SSO Microwave or laser ranging 450 tracking large-scale water movement system SCLP Snow accumulation for freshwater availability LEO, SSO Ku- and X-band radars 500 K- and Ka-band radiometers GACM Ozone and related gases for intercontinental LEO, SSO UV spectrometer 600 air quality and stratospheric ozone layer IR spectrometer prediction Microwave limb sounder 3D-Winds Tropospheric winds for weather forecasting LEO, SSO Doppler lidar 650 (Demo) and pollution transport NOTE: Missions are listed by cost.
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From page 40... ...
Development of a coherent set of recommended missions was guided by the committee's overarching recommendation, given in Chapter 1. Most importantly, the committee sought an observing system that would treat Earth as a system, improving knowledge of weather and climate and expanding the scope of observations to address other key societal issues more fully.
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From page 41... ...
THE NEXT DECADE OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE 41 TABLE 2.3 Contribution of Recommended Missions to the Priority Science Mission/Observation Types Identified by the Individual Study Panels as Discussed in Part III Recommended Mission Mission/Observation Type Recommended by Individual Panel Panel CLARREO Radiance calibration Climate Ozone processes Health GPSRO Radiance calibration Climate Ozone processes Health Cold seasons Water Radio occultation Weather SMAP Heat stress and drought Health Algal blooms and waterborne infectious disease Health Vector-borne and zoonotic disease Health Soil moisture and freeze-thaw state Water Surface water and ocean topography Water ICESat-II Clouds, aerosols, ice, and carbon Climate Ecosystem structure and biomass Ecosystem Sea ice thickness, glacier surface elevation, glacier velocity Water DESDynI Ice dynamics Climate Ecosystem structure and biomass Ecosystem Heat stress and drought Health Vector-borne and zoonotic disease Health Surface deformation Solid Earth Sea ice thickness, glacier surface elevation, glacier velocity Water XOVWM Ocean circulation, heat storage, and climate forcing Climate HyspIRI Ecosystem function Ecosystem Heat stress and drought Health Vector-borne and zoonotic disease Health Surface composition and thermal properties Solid Earth ASCENDS Carbon budget Ecosystem Ozone processes Health SWOT Ocean circulation, heat storage, and climate forcing Climate Algal blooms and waterborne infectious disease Health Vector-borne and zoonotic disease Health Surface water and ocean topography Water GEO-CAPE Global ecosystem dynamics Ecosystem Ozone processes Health Heat stress and drought Health Acute toxic pollution releases Health Air pollution Health Algal blooms and waterborne infectious disease Weather Inland and coastal water quality Health Tropospheric aerosol characterization Water Tropospheric ozone Weather continued
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From page 42... ...
For fairly mature forecast tools, such as weather forecast models, the need for routine sea-surface wind observations14 by relatively mature instrument techniques set the phasing needed to provide continuity between the current QuikSCAT instrument, the planned CMIS replacement instrument on NPOESS, and the Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM) recommended by the 14See, for example, pp.
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From page 43... ...
Responses to the committee's request for information (see Appendixes D and E) were valuable for developing individual mission costs, but a uniform approach to cost estimation (based mainly on known costs for many current and past Earth science missions)
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From page 44... ...
All of the Phase A study concepts have potential value for the broader Earth science community and provide overlap with missions recommended by this committee. Accordingly, the committee emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in the NASA observing program to leverage possible international activities, either by appropriate sequencing of complementary NASA and international partner missions or by exploration of possible combinations of appropriate U.S.
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From page 45... ...
Most of the missions were deemed to contribute at least slightly to human health issues, and so health is not presented as a separate category.sharpen bad type but we can replace it as in this case we cant 140 this is a "fixed image" Number of Instruments 120 Solid Earth 100 Water Cycle 80 Ecosystems 60 Climate 40 Weather 20 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year FIGURE 2.9 Space-based instruments, 2000 to 2020. All of the recommended missions are assumed to operate for 7 years (3-year nominal mission plus 4 years of extended mission)
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From page 46... ...
The committee notes that historically the broader Earth science research community's involvement in conducting space-based missions has been almost exclusively in concert with various implementing NASA centers. Accordingly, the committee advises NASA to seek to implement the recommended set of missions as part of one strategic program, or mission line, using both competitive and noncompetitive methods to create a timely and effective program.
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From page 47... ...
The light striped "Decadal Survey" area represents the budget wedge that would support the committee's recommended missions and technology development in the next decade. FIGURE 2.11 Detailed view of NASA budget for Earth science for 2007 to 2021 required to implement the committee's recommendations (in fixed FY 2006 dollars)
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From page 48... ...
The light striped "Decadal Survey" area represents the budget wedge that would support the committee's recommended missions and technology development in the next decade. FIGURE 2.13 A detailed view of the NOAA NESDIS budget for 2007 to 2021 required to implement the committee's recommendations (in fixed FY 2006 dollars)
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From page 49... ...
TABLE 2.5 Contributions of Recommended Missions to Continuation or Expansion of Environmental Data Records Dependent on the Replacement for the Canceled Conical Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder Relevant EDR Dependent on CMIS Replacement NPOESS Sensor(s) Recommended Mission Atmospheric vertical moisture profile CrIS/ATMS/CMIS replacement PATH, GPSRO, CLARREO Atmospheric vertical temperature profile CrIS/ATMS/CMIS replacement PATH, GPSRO, CLARREO Global sea-surface winds CMIS replacement XOVWM Imagery VIIRS/CMIS replacement HyspIRI Sea-surface temperature VIIRS/CMIS replacement PATH Precipitable water/Integrated water vapor CMIS replacement ACE Precipitation type/rate CMIS replacement PATH Pressure (surface/profile)
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From page 50... ...
50 EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE XOVWM Launch 2013-2016 High-resolution ocean vector winds DESDynI Launch 2010-2013 Changes in Earth's surface and movement of magma GPSRO Launch 2010-2013 Pressure, temperature, water vapor profiles SWOT Launch 2013-2016 Sea-level measurements extended into coastal zones SOCIETAL Ocean eddies and currents CHALLENGE: EXTREME HYSPIRI EVENT Launch 2013-2016 WARNINGS Nutrients and water status of vegetation; soil type and health Longer-term, more Processes indicating volcanic eruption reliable storm track forecasts, storm LIST Launch 2016-2020 intensification predictions, Global high-resolution topography and volcanic eruption Detection of active faults and landslide warnings to enable effective PATH Launch 2016-2020 evacuation planning Temperature and humidity profiles Sea-surface temperature SCLP Launch 2016-2020 Snowpack accumulation and snowmelt extent 3D-Winds Launch 2020+ Three-dimensional tropospheric wind profiles Hurricane wind fields FIGURE 2.14 Recommended missions supporting extreme-event warnings.
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From page 51... ...
THE NEXT DECADE OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE 51 GEO-CAPE Launch 2013-2016 Identification of human versus natural sources for aerosols and ozone precursors Observation of air pollution transport in North, Central, and South America GPSRO Launch 2010-2013 Pressure, temperature, water vapor profiles SWOT Launch 2013-2016 River discharge estimates SOCIETAL CHALLENGE: PATH Launch 2016-2020 HUMAN Temperature and humidity profiles HEALTH More reliable forecasts GACM Launch 2016-2020 of outbreaks of infectious Global aerosol and air pollution and vector-borne disease transport and processes for disease control and response 3D-Winds Launch 2020+ Three-dimensional tropospheric wind profiles FIGURE 2.15 Recommended missions supporting human health.
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From page 52... ...
52 EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE DESDYNL Launch 2010-2013 Changes in Earth's surface SOCIETAL CHALLENGE: LIST Launch 2016-2020 EARTHQUAKE EARLY Global high-resolution WARNING topography Identification of active faults and Detection of prediction of likelihood of earth active faults quakes to enable effective invest ment in structural improvements, inform decisions about land use, and provide early warning of impending earthquakes FIGURE 2.16 Recommended missions supporting earthquake early warning.
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From page 53... ...
THE NEXT DECADE OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE 53 SMAP Launch 2010-2013 Linkage between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycle GPSRO Launch 2010-2013 Pressure, temperature, water vapor profiles ACE Launch 2013-2016 Cloud and aerosol height XOVWM Launch 2013-2016 High-resolution ocean vector winds SOCIETAL CHALLENGE: IMPROVED WEATHER PATH Launch 2016-2020 PREDICTION Temperature and humidity profiles Longer-term, more Sea-surface temperature reliable weather forecasts 3D-Winds Launch 2020+ Three-dimensional tropospheric wind profiles Hurricane wind fields FIGURE 2.17 Recommended missions supporting improved weather prediction capability.
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From page 54... ...
54 EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE DESDynl Launch 2010-2013 Ice sheet deformation and dynamics ICESat-II Launch 2010-2013 Ice sheet thickness and volume CLARREO Launch 2010-2013 Absolute spectrally resolved infrared radiance SOCIETAL Incident solar and spectrally CHALLENGE: resolved reflected irradiance SEA-LEVEL RISE SWOT Launch 2013-2016 Climate predictions based Sea-level measurements on better understanding extended into coastal zones of ocean temperature and ice sheet volume changes GRACE-II Launch 2016-2020 and feedback to enable Ice sheet mass, volume, effective coastal and distribution community planning PATH Launch 2016-2020 Sea-surface temperature FIGURE 2.18 Recommended missions supporting prediction of sea-level rise.
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From page 55... ...
THE NEXT DECADE OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE 55 DESDynl Launch 2010-2013 Changes in carbon storage in vegetation GPSRO Launch 2010-2013 Pressure, temperature, water vapor profiles ICESat-II Launch 2010-2013 Estimate of flux of low-salinity ice out of Arctic basin CLARREO Launch 2010-2013 Absolute spectrally resolved infrared radiance SOCIETAL Incident solar and spectrally CHALLENGE: resolved reflected irradiance CLIMATE PREDICTION ACE Launch 2013-2016 Aerosol and cloud types Robust estimates of and properties primary climate forcings for improved climate ASCENDS Launch 2013-2016 forecasts, including local Measurements of CO2: day and predictions of the effects night, all seasons, all latitudes of climate change Connection between climate and CO2 exchange GACM Launch 2016-2020 Vertical profile of ozone and key ozone precursors FIGURE 2.19 Recommended missions supporting climate prediction.
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From page 56... ...
56 EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE SWOT Launch 2013-2016 Estimates of river discharge GPSRO Launch 2010-2013 Pressure, temperature, water vapor profiles GRACE-II Launch 2016-2020 Changes in aquifers and deep ocean currents PATH Launch 2016-2020 SOCIETAL Temperature and humidity profiles CHALLENGE: FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY SCLP Launch 2016-2020 Snowpack accumulation and Improved precipitation snowmelt extent and drought forecasts to improve water Snow water equivalent, snow depth, resource management and snow wetness Dynamics of water storage in seasonal snowpacks FIGURE 2.20 Recommended missions supporting water resource management for freshwater availability.
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From page 57... ...
THE NEXT DECADE OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE 57 HysplRI Launch 2013-2016 Nutrients and water status of vegetation; soil type and health DESDynl Launch 2010-2013 Height and structure of forests SMAP Launch 2010-2013 Soil freeze-thaw state Soil moisture effect on vegetation SOCIETAL SWOT Launch 2013-2016 CHALLENGE: Ocean eddies and currents ECOSYSTEM SERVICES GEO-CAPE Launch 2013-2016 Improved land use and Dynamics of coastal ecosystems, forecasts of agricultural river plumes, and tidal fronts and ocean productivity to improve planting and XOVWM Launch 2013-2016 harvesting schedules and Improved estimates of coastal management of fisheries upwelling and nutrient availability ASCENDS Launch 2013-2016 Inventory of global CO2 sources and sinks Inventory of global CO2 sources and sinks ACE Launch 2013-2016 Organic material in surface ocean layers FIGURE 2.21 Recommended missions supporting ecosystem services.
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From page 58... ...
58 EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE GEO-CAPE Launch 2013-2016 Identification of human versus natural sources for aerosols and ozone precursors Observation of air pollution transport in North, Central, and South America ACE Launch 2013-2016 Cloud and aerosol height Aerosol and cloud types and properties SOCIETAL CHALLENGE: 3D-Winds Launch 2020+ AIR QUALITY Three-dimensional tropospheric wind profiles More reliable forecasts of air quality to enable effective management of GACM Launch 2016-2020 urban pollution Vertical profile of ozone and key ozone precursors Global aerosol and air pollution transport and processes FIGURE 2.22 Recommended missions supporting air quality monitoring and pollution management.
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From page 59... ...
Priority would be given to cost-effective, innovative missions rather than those with excessive scientific and technological requirements. The Venture class could include stand-alone missions that use simple, small instruments, spacecraft, and launch vehicles; more complex instruments of opportunity flown on partner spacecraft and launch vehicles; or complex sets of instruments flown on suitable suborbital platforms to address focused sets of scientific questions.
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From page 60... ...
2005. Earth Science and Applications from Space: Urgent Needs and Opportunities to Serve the Nation.
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