Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3 Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data (2008) / Chapter Skim
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3 RESPONSIVENESS TO PROSPECTUS QUESTIONS
3 RESPONSIVENESS TO PROSPECTUS QUESTIONS
Pages 15-23
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From page 15... ...
-- do have products of potential interest, but they are quite different in what they offer. Although NCEP is working toward more objective forecasts, only IRI offers a synthesized product -- skill-filtered, objective multimodel, with some additional final subjective filtering based on response to potentially erroneous predictions of sea surface temperature (SST)
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From page 16... ...
after the historical response of the model ensemble has been appropriately recalibrated to the observed climate variability. Although they provide some insight into decision-making criteria, climate projections based on scenarios should also be distinguished clearly from probabilistic forecasts.
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From page 17... ...
Prospectus Question 11: What is the role of probabilistic forecast information in the context of decision support in the water resources sector? The chapter considers how the changing social, political, and cultural contexts affect the use of climate change information as well as how emerging governance structures may change the way water resources decisions are made.
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From page 18... ...
It would help to focus this discussion as much as possible on what is known about how climate information has been transformed by users into operational products. There have been reviews that suggest how climate information can be integrated into existing decision routines (e.g., McNie et al., 2007, on NOAA's Regional Integrated Science Applications Program)
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From page 19... ...
Prospectus Question 9: What are the obstacles and challenges decisionmakers face in translating climate forecasts and hydrology information into integrated resource management? The chapter considers how patterns of integrating innovation in organizations may pose obstacles to the use of climate forecasts and hydrologic information.
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From page 20... ...
For example, seasonal forecasts provide probabilities and skill assessments based on observations, model predictions, and expert judgment, whereas climate change projections offer ranges based on scenario inputs built up from a set of plausible, coherent narratives that many would like to see revised. Engaging the climate change discussion would also require consideration of a broader literature than is currently covered.
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From page 21... ...
Section 4.5.1.1, under a title on climate variability, includes a summary of climate change issues drawing primarily on materials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This section would be a better fit earlier in a discussion of impacts and influence of climate on decision makers.
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From page 22... ...
Prospectus Question 8: How do forecasters convey information on climate variability and how is the relative skill and level of confidence of the results communicated to resource managers? The issue of how to communicate information through collaborative engagement with decision makers receives a great deal of well-documented attention.
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From page 23... ...
identify other user needs and challenges in order to prioritize research for improving forecasts and products. The closing discussion of research needs includes several important items, but it does not address issues of communicating uncertainty that are seen as priorities in the recent NRC reports, Decision Making for the Environment (2005)
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