Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment A Call for Change (2008) / Chapter Skim
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2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk
2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk
Pages 11-19
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From page 11... ...
Without a clear understanding • Problem formulation, of stakeholder objectives with respect to alternative terror • Risk assessment, ist tactics, risk management strategies may be developed • Risk perception, that are unlikely to be implemented. In the context of the • Risk communication, and bioterrorism problem, the key interested parties are the • Risk management. relevant public-sector agencies concerned with this risk, the terrorists (who would like to discover U.S.
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From page 12... ...
In general, risk assessbetween alternative risk management decisions and their ment requires a description of the severities as well as the consequences and by identifying decisions that may increase frequencies of adverse health outcomes caused by exposures the probabilities of preferred outcomes. Risk assessment may and the potential value of gathering additional information to include a description of the cause-and-effect links between reduce the uncertainty surrounding these risk estimates.
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From page 13... ...
In recent Risk Perception years, there has been increased sympathy for including the Risk perception is concerned with the psychological fac- psychological and emotional factors involved in perception tors, including emotional factors, that have been shown to of risk as part of risk assessment. have an enormous impact on behavior (Slovic, 2000)
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From page 14... ...
This raises the problem of effectively communicating information on risk to the public, especially Risk Communication information involving very low or high probabilities -- an The importance of risk communication in the overall risk important component in any risk communication strategy management process is emphasized in Homeland Security for dealing with the bioterrorist threat. The use of EP curves Presidential Directive 10 (The White House, 2004)
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From page 15... ...
fies a subset of decision options leading to preferred prob ability distributions of health risks and other outcomes. The outputs of a health risk analysis should allow a Risk Management risk manager to answer the following questions for each Risk management is the process of constructing, evaluat- risk management decision alternative being evaluated or ing, implementing, monitoring, and revising strategies for compared: reducing (or distributing)
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From page 16... ...
In these cases, where there are complementari A special challenge in developing risk assessments ties or positive externalities created by an individual taking for a terrorist attack involves human action and reaction. protective measures, there is more incentive for one unit to Although terrorist activities and natural disasters can both invest in protective measures if the other units have taken be characterized as extreme events, there are crucial differ- similar actions.
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From page 17... ...
TABLE 2.2 Natural Occurrence of Anthrax Versus Its Use by Terrorists: Comparison of Key Characteristics Characteristic Natural Occurrence of Anthrax Use of Anthrax by Terrorists Historical data Some historical data: Good understanding exists of the Limited historical data: Limited historical and experimental data exist. modes of transmission and containment.
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From page 18... ...
:15-29. DHS (Department of Homeland Security)
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From page 19... ...
2004. Homeland Security Presidential Directive 10 Parnell, G., R
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