Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment A Call for Change (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Lexicon
Appendix A: Lexicon
Pages 61-77
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Appendixes
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Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis, is in • The risk and decision community reverses these tended to be an exemplar of what might be used in any public definitions: the first step of gathering information (in presentation and discussion of a probabilistic risk analysis particular, obtaining information about the uncertainty and presented as a supplement to this report. Without a clear of events and their possible consequences)
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" in second column, "Committee's entitled "A Lexicon of Risk Terminology and Meth- Recommended Definition," indicates a conclusion by odological Description of the DHS Bioterrorism Risk the committee that it is not necessary (or it is poten Assessment" (DHS, 2007)
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agent-conditional relative risk The conditional relative risk using probabilities conditional upon the use of a particular agent. See also agent-conditional expected risk.
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continuous random variable A random variable that has an absolutely continuous cumulative distribution function.i,e See also cumulative distribution function, probability density function. cost-benefit analysis "A formal quantitative procedure comparing SRA also includes in its definition: "To determine a rank costs and benefits of a proposed act or policy."b ordering of projects to maximize rate of return when available funds are unlimited, the quotient of benefits divided by costs is the appropriate form; to maximize absolute return given limited resources, benefits minus costs is the appropriate form." This method of rank-ordering is inappropriate for risk analysis in that it implies specific (and presumably known)
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discrete random variable "A random variable that has a non-zero A probability mass function is used to represent the set of probability for only a finite, or countably infinite, probabilities for all values of a discrete random variable. See also cumulative distribution set of values."c function, probability mass function.
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are not necessarily consecutive order is known.l in time and are, in general, not independent."a expected risk A summary measure of risk for an event, The committee strongly recommends that, wherever possible, scenario, etc., as expressed by the expected the term "expected risk" be replaced by the specific measure Synonym: expected consequences value of any one of the measurable of consequences, such as "expected deaths," "expected loss of consequences associated with the risk. (Adapted income," "expected illnesses." If these measures are combined Although "expected risk" is not from McCormick [1981]
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mean The first moment of a probability distribution, See note under expected value. with the same mathematical definition as See also expected value, expected value.
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normalized risk The proportion of the total expected risk contributed by a particular agent. See also conditional relative risk, relative risk.
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The derivative of an absolutely continuous The PDF is the common way to represent the probability cumulative distribution function.p distribution of a continuous random variable, because its shape often displays the central tendency (mean) and variability For a scalar random variable X, a function f such (standard deviation)
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risk analysis An overall process that involves risk assessment, risk perception, risk communication, and risk DHS Lexicon: "A detailed management. The hazards to be analyzed (e.g., examination including risk physical, chemical, radioactive, and biological assessment, risk evaluation and risk agents)
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."t risk perception Beliefs, attitudes, judgments, and perceptions held by individuals, communities, societies, See also risk analysis. groups, or organizations about the risks of a hazard.
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An end of an event tree."a simulation "A model constructed so that the input of a large By its inherent nature, each set of "runs" of a simulation number of random variables drawn from defined represents the outcomes of a series of experiments. Analysis Synonym: Monte Carlo simulation probability distributions will generate outputs of simulation output data therefore requires a proper that are representative of the random behavior of experimental design, followed by the use of statistical See also model.
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Its square root, the standard deviation, See also standard deviation. of the random variable X
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DHS Lexicon: "infected or intoxicated population showing symptoms."a infected An individual or population that has an This can be used as an adjective or noun, but most often, in infectious agent enter and multiply in its tissues.v the modeling context, as a noun. DHS Lexicon: "population that has been exposed and received an infectious dose."a infectious dose X (IDX)
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2006. Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis.
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Key Terms
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