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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment A Call for Change (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment
Pages 78-79

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From page 78...
... Distinguished Professor of Operations Research Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California An event tree can be defined as a directed-out-tree (i.e., a joint probability of selection by multiplying the successive connected di-graph that contains no cycle with exactly one, arc selection probabilities on the path. Note that we need distinguished, root node with in-degree 0, and every other not assume independence among successive probabilities, node with in-degree 1)
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From page 79...
... . The paths here have one extra, final stage that BTRA does not: This stage eliminates the necessity for ­ separate notation for consequence distributions, with each of its outcomes resulting in a scalar cost consequence.
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Key Terms

  • root node
  • completely evaluate
  • risk analysis
  • btra event
  • mathematical definition

  • btra risk
  • leaf node
  • directed path
  • arc selection
  • monte carlo

  • scenario paths
  • outcomes resulting
  • successive probabilities
  • cost consequence
  • measured outcome

  • tree mathematically
  • tree starts
  • sample statistic
  • scalar cost
  • prentice hall

  • upper saddle
  • successive connected
  • state node
  • threat risk
  • event node

  • expected cost
  • successor event
  • tree represents
  • tree probabilities
  • final stage


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