The National Academies Summit on America's Energy Future Summary of a Meeting (2008) / Chapter Skim
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12 The Public Sector Response
12 The Public Sector Response
Pages 103-127
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From page 103... ...
Thirteen years after the United States had ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, no requirement or incentive was in place to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. No new nuclear reactor had been ordered in the United States since 1978, and the siting of new liquid natural gas terminals and even wind farms had been stymied by NIMBY ("not in my back yard")
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From page 104... ...
To address climate change risks, the Commission proposed initiating in 2010 a mandatory, economy-wide, tradable-permits system to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The permit system would be designed to reduce the carbon emissions intensity of the United States by 2.4 percent per year and would have a "safety valve" (which is discussed later in this chapter)
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From page 105... ...
Research and development on energy technologies received special emphasis in the Commission's recommendations. Its report called for doubling the annual real federal expenditures for energy research, development, and demonstration in the next 5 years, to a level of $3.3 billion in 2004 dollars in 2010.
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From page 106... ...
Furthermore, the full set of policies recommended by the Commission would reduce the gross domestic product by no more than 0.4 percent in 2025 while reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 11 percent from the reference case. However, although coal use in 2025 would be 10 percent below the reference case, it would still be 22 percent above the level of 2003.
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From page 107... ...
The United States is partnering with Asian countries through the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum to improve energy efficiency, reforestation, and cooperation in green technology. A formal strategic economic dialogue with China, and broader energy dialogues with China and other emerging economies, seek to encourage the adoption of market-based energy policies, the rapid adoption of clean energy technologies, and a responsible approach to the development of oil resources.
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From page 108... ...
To advance these negotiations, President Bush launched the Major Economies Process to bring together the top energy-consuming countries from the developed and developing world, which together represent some 80 percent of the world's energy use, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions. Through the Major Economies Process, the United States hopes to build consensus among the key players in a number of areas, including a shared long-term global emissions reduction goal, national mid-term plans and goals, and cooperative technology strategies in key sectors.
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From page 109... ...
Examples include cellulosic biofuels, advanced hybrid vehicle technologies, hydrogen fuel cells, solar photovoltaics, and high-efficiency wind power. "These are things that are already in the pipeline and, as a matter of sound public policy, need to be pushed more quickly to market," Bodman said.
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From page 110... ...
We are working to see that it does by, among other things, implementing federal risk insurance, or so-called ‘stand-by support,' and loan guarantees to try to remove some of the roadblocks associated with getting the next generation of nuclear plants on line." With the rest of the world on the verge of a major nuclear expansion, President Bush introduced in 2006 the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) to facilitate the worldwide expansion of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in a safe and secure manner.
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From page 111... ...
Furthermore, these increased investments serve a dual purpose, Marlay said, in that most of the investments made to reduce the potential of climate change also result in greater energy security. For example, if oil intensity is measured by barrels of oil used per trillion dollars of gross domestic product, technology development leading to more efficient use of oil as well as replacement of oil with alternatives can reduce oil intensity substantially below a business-as-usual case.
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From page 112... ...
Very high constraints on greenhouse gas levels -- somewhere on the order of 450 or 500 parts per million -- have a global cost around $250 trillion (in undiscounted dollars) over the 21st century if technologies evolve at the rate they are today.
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From page 113... ...
. with 12-1A forms a 2-page spread mostly bitmap image low resolution gases.
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From page 114... ...
114 TABLE 12.1 A Roadmap for Climate Change Technology Development Provides Near-Term, Mid-Term, and LongTerm Options Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Goal 1 Hybrid and plug-in hybrid Fuel cell vehicles and H2 fuels Widespread use of engineered urban Energy end-use and electric vehicles Low-emission aircraft designs and regional planning infrastructure Engineered urban designs Solid-state lighting Energy managed communities High-performance integrated Ultra-efficient heating, Integration of industrial heat, power, homes ventilation, air conditioning, process, and techniques High-efficiency appliances and refrigeration Superconducting transmission and High-efficiency boilers and "Smart" buildings equipment combustion systems Transformational technologies High-temperature for energy-intensive superconductivity industries demonstrations Energy storage for load leveling Goal 2 IGCC commercialization FutureGen scale-up Zero-emission fossil energy Energy supply Stationary H2 fuel cells H2 co-production from coal/ H2 and electric economy Cost-competitive solar PV biomass Widespread renewable energy Demonstrations of cellulosic Low-wind-speed turbines Bio-inspired energy and fuels ethanol Advanced biorefineries Widespread nuclear power Distributed electric generation Community-scale solar Fusion power plants Advanced fission reactor and Gen IV nuclear plants fuel cycle technology Fusion pilot plant demonstration
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From page 115... ...
Goal 3 CSLF and CSRP Geologic storage proven safe Track record of successful CO2 storage Capture, storage, and Post-combustion capture CO2 transport infrastructure experience sequestration Oxygen-fuel combustion Soils uptake and land use Large-scale sequestration Enhanced hydrocarbon recovery Ocean CO2 biological impacts Carbon- and CO2-based products and Geologic reservoir addressed materials characterization Safe long-term ocean storage Soils conservation Dilution of direct injected CO2 Goal 4 Methane to markets Advanced landfill gas utilization Integrated waste management system Other gases Precision agriculture Soil microbial processes with automated sorting, processing, Advanced refrigeration Substitutes for SF6 and recycle technologies Catalysts that reduce N2O to Zero-emission agriculture PM control technologies for elemental nitrogen in diesel Solid-state refrigeration and air vehicles engines conditioning systems Goal 5 Low-cost sensors and Large-scale, secure data storage Fully operational integrated measure Measure and monitor communications system and monitor systems architecture Direct measurement to replace (sensors, indicators, data proxies and estimators visualization and storage, models)
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From page 116... ...
SOURCE: Kelly S Gallagher, Energy Technology Innovation Project, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, available at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/ publication/18152/doe_budget_authority_for_energy_research_development_and_ demonstration_database.html.
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From page 117... ...
. Energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide also are forecast to decrease by 500 million metric tons as a result of the new act -- an amount equivalent to the annual carbon dioxide emissions
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From page 118... ...
Carbon dioxide emissions will still grow, and oil imports will still be substantial. "Clearly, there is much more that needs to be done." Nevertheless, as Holdren pointed out, the 2005 legislation did break the stalemate that the National Commission on Energy Policy had been established to address.
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From page 119... ...
carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 500 million metric tons by 2030.
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From page 120... ...
Regarding renewable sources of energy, the Commission recommended extending the eligibility period for federal production tax credits in 5-year rather than 1- or 2-year increments to provide certainty for the industry that those tax credits would continue to exist. Perhaps most controversially, the new report called for a federal renewable portfolio standard that would increase the share of electricity generated by renewable sources to at least 15 percent by 2020.
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From page 121... ...
. The original set of proposals would stabilize emissions at 8,000 million metric tons of carbon diox 12,000 10,000 Business-as-Usual Million Metric Tons CO2 Projections 8,000 Historic Emissions Original NCEP Proposal 6,000 New NCEP Proposal 4,000 2,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 FIGURE 12.5 Implementing the 2007 recommendations of the National Commission Figure 12-6.eps on Energy Policy could reduce carbon dioxide emissions to approximately 1990 levels.
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From page 122... ...
They finally passed a big energy bill, and they left the oil and gas subsidies in and took the renewables subsidies out.'" The House bill called for repealing $22 billion a year in tax subsidies for oil and gas to pay for efficiency and renewables incentives and the implementation of CAFE, but the Senate version repealed only $1 billion of subsidies -- enough to pay for the CAFE implementation but not enough for the efficiency and renewables incentives. The Senate's excuse was that President Bush had threatened to veto the energy bill because of these provisions, so the Senate engaged in "pre-emptive concession," according to Holdren.
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From page 123... ...
SOURCE: John Holdren, Harvard University, based on data from Kelly S Gallagher, ETIP Energy RD&D Database, Energy Technology Innovation Project, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, February 14, 2008, available at http://belfercenter.ksg.
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From page 124... ...
And, again, if we can make it decline even faster, that's great." CAP AND TRADE VERSUS A CARBON TAX The Commission's most controversial recommendation in both its 2004 and 2007 reports was that there should be a safety valve on the greenhouse gas permit price. The concept is that if a predetermined price is reached in the marketplace, the government would sell as many additional permits as are demanded at that price.
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From page 125... ...
That means it would be far better for the United States to get going sooner with something that is maybe a little less than ideal than to wait 2, 3, or 5 more years for a better proposal when the Congress, after additional evidence accumulates on the harm from climate change, might be willing to vote through a measure without a safety valve." Other speakers at the summit made a strong case for a carbon tax instead of a cap-and-trade system. Paul Portney pointed out that past analyses have concluded that higher gasoline prices create a powerful incentive for automobile companies to make more fuel-efficient cars and for Americans to use the 200 million vehicles already on the road in more fuel-efficient ways.
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From page 126... ...
"One of the reasons that the Energy Commission changed the details of its recommendations -- including the fraction of the permits to be auctioned and the size and level of the safety valve -- was learning from the European experience." Another argument is that there should be not only a ceiling but also a floor on the permit price, Holdren said. Cap-and-trade approaches do generate variability in prices, which creates a lack of signals for firms that are trying to decide how much to invest in alternatives.
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From page 127... ...
It is continuing to work on questions involving cap-and-trade systems, the management of nuclear energy, and an expanded research and development program. A single set of rules or policies will not work well everywhere, said Davis.
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