The National Academies Summit on America's Energy Future Summary of a Meeting (2008) / Chapter Skim
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9 Transportation
9 Transportation
Pages 65-76
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From page 65... ...
More importantly, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require automakers to achieve an average 35 miles per gallon for new cars and lightduty trucks by the year 2020, up from about 25 miles per gallon for new cars and light trucks today. That legislation was a major achievement, Portney said, given the political climate in the United States and the many challenges facing domestic car manufacturers.
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From page 66... ...
"We've seen the introduction into the United States on a larger scale of cleaner, much better performing diesel engines, which is a very important development in improving fuel economy. And now we've begun to see what I think is perhaps the most promising of the so-called conventional technologies -- plug-in hybrids, which I think will change the fuel economy picture in the United States significantly." Another positive effect of high gas prices is that venture capitalists have become much more focused on clean energy and efficient vehicles.
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From page 67... ...
"This is not very gratifying after 120 years of devoted engineering effort." Because of this inefficiency, there is enormous leverage in making cars lighter, whether through light metals or advanced polymer composites. A group at the Rocky Mountain Institute completely redesigned a midsize car that can comfortably carry five adults and has 2 cubic meters of cargo space.
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From page 68... ...
FIGURE 9.2 The 1/X concept car, designed by Toyota, that weighs one-third as much as a Prius, uses half as much energy, and yet has the same interior volume. SOURCE: Toyota Motor Corporation.
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From page 69... ...
Further effi ciency gains, greater use of biofuels or natural gas, or the use of hydrogen from natural gas or renewable energy sources could eliminate the need to import any petroleum. (Pathways to a sustainable energy future are described in Part IV.)
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From page 70... ...
The head of Boeing's commercial airplane division recently moved to Ford to bring ideas from the aerospace industry to the automotive industry. The unions and automobile dealers are keen for innovation, Lovins said, "to save the industry as a tsunami of creative destruction sweeps over them." The Rocky Mountain Institute has been doing projects with the auto industry.
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From page 71... ...
It's an example that "illustrates the opportunities for state-level leadership and experimentation in innovative public policy instruments." Also, the industry is increasingly interested in feebates as a way of getting more efficient cars on the road faster than with gasoline taxes or standards. As a final example of what is possible, Lovins mentioned the fifth forprofit company that has been spun off from the Rocky Mountain Institutea company designed to bring a lightweight plug-in hybrid vehicle to market.
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From page 72... ...
Its use could reduce petroleum consumption in the United States, making the nation less reliant on foreign sources of oil. It also can be generated from sustainable energy sources, resulting in substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 73... ...
Considerable research also is needed on the supply system for hydrogen. Hydrogen often will be used as an energy source to power fuel cells that will produce electricity.
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From page 74... ...
In the optimally plausible case, which assumes that technical targets are met, that policies are established to support infrastructure change, and that consumers buy the vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could make significant inroads into current vehicle markets, Ramage said. If they have a penetration rate comparable to that of hybrid vehicles and then front wheel drive vehicles, there would be a substantial transition toward hydrogen vehicles in the 2025 to
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From page 75... ...
90 80 70 60 Hybrids 50 Hydrogen fuel cell Conventional ICE C ti l 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 9.6 Under an optimistic scenario,9-6.eps Figure fuel cells could account for virtually all vehicle miles traveled in the United States by the middle of the century. ICE, internal combustion engine.
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From page 76... ...
A robust, ongoing program of research and development by both the public and private sectors could make progress on the hurdles hydrogen faces, Ramage said. To name just a few issues: Vehicle and fuel combinations need to be evaluated for their impact on enhancing energy security and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
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