The National Academies Summit on America's Energy Future Summary of a Meeting (2008) / Chapter Skim
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11 Pathways to a Sustainable Future
11 Pathways to a Sustainable Future
Pages 85-102
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From page 85... ...
If we could make that more like 3 percent per year, carbon emissions would fall and stabilize the climate fairly quickly." Reductions in energy intensity of 3 percent a year may seem high, but they are not uncommon, Lovins said. The United States has cut its energy intensity by that much or more in many recent years, including 4 percent in 2006.
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From page 86... ...
Even Japan, which has less than half the energy intensity of the United States, is finding ways in official studies to triple energy productivity To solve the energy problem, the United States must increase its energy efficiency four- to fivefold, while the developing world grows in such a way that its energy intensity does not increase dramatically, said Steven Chu (Figure 11.2)
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From page 87... ...
Korea Japan Malaysia Greece France 5 China Mexico Brazil India 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2005 international $) FIGURE 11.2 As the per capita gross domestic product of the developing countries increases, carbon dioxide emissions can either rise 10-20-08 level of the most energy 11-2 new to the intensive developed countries (upper curve)
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From page 88... ...
The EPRI analysis focused on the period between now and 2030, since that is the period when technologies will have to be deployed to bend the curve of growing carbon dioxide emissions, Specker said. Using projections from the EIA of carbon dioxide emissions over that period -- which were recently modified to reflect the impact of the 2007 energy legislation -- the EPRI study looked at the potential of seven technology areas to reduce emissions (Figure 11.3)
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From page 89... ...
500 5 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 10% of New Light-Duty Vehicle 6 PHEV None Sales by 2017; 33% by 2030 7 DER <0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 FIGURE 11.3 Emissions of carbon dioxide by the U.S. electric generation sector could drop below 1990 levels by 2030 through the use of Figure 11-3.eps seven categories of technologies.
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From page 90... ...
When new nuclear capacity is added to efficiency and renewables, the curve of carbon dioxide emission starts to bend downward. Advanced coal generation without carbon capture and sequestration is the fourth area.
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From page 91... ...
. According to EPRI's model, to meet the same constraints on carbon dioxide emissions, coal has to be largely phased out by 2040.
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From page 92... ...
"Technology is critical to managing the cost of a carbon dioxide policy." For each of the major areas considered in its analysis, EPRI laid out the key technologies that need to be developed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. These technologies fell into four categories (Figure 11.8)
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From page 93... ...
"In fact, we're quite encouraged, and we know that as the United States and other economies begin to focus on this task more seriously, there will undoubtedly be important breakthroughs. But we focused our analysis only on those that were proven or the four that I mentioned that were emerging." The project covered seven sectors of the economy: buildings, power, transportation, industry, waste, agriculture, and forestry.
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From page 94... ...
Re $1 Trillion Reduction in $1 Tri llion Policy Cost -1.0 10 with Advanced Technology -1.5 Value of Advanced Technolog ies Figure 11-8.eps FIGURE 11.7 The change in gross domestic product through 2050 owing to adoption broadside of carbon dioxide reduction policies becomes substantially smaller as more new energy technologies become available. SOURCE: Energy Technology Assessment Center of the Electric Power Research Institute.
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From page 95... ...
In 2005, the United States emitted approximately 7.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. Under a business-as-usual scenariowith an expanding population, a growing economy, and larger homes and businesses containing more appliances -- the expected growth to 2030 was 2.5 billion metric tons, to a total of 9.7 billion metric tons in 2030, a 35 percent increase in emissions.
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From page 96... ...
Congress. "Only as we get well past our mid-range case and into the aggressive territory do we begin to match the levels that are currently being called for." The authors of the McKinsey report examined 250 different options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
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From page 97... ...
Abatement costs <$50/ metric ton Cost Residential Commercial Real 2005 dollars per metric ton CO2e Low-, mid- buildings – buildings – 100 penetration Nuclear HVAC HVAC 90 onshore wind equipment equipment new-build 80 efficiency efficiency 70 Fuel economy Industrial Coal Distributed 60 packages – process mining – solar PV Light trucks improve- Methane 50 Residential ments mgmt Active forest 40 electronics management 30 Residential 20 buildings 10 Lighting 0 -10 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 -20 Potential -30 Biomass Industry – billion metric -40 Industry – power – CCS new tons/year -50 Combined Cofiring builds on Manufac heat and carbon -60 turing – power intensive Car -70 HFCs processes hybridi -80 mgmt Coal power zation Cellulosic -90 plants – CCS new biofuels -100 builds with EOR Natural Coal-to -110 Commercial Commercial Conservation gas and gas shift – -120 electronics petroleum Winter buildings – tillage Dispatch of systems cover crops New shell existing plants improvements mgmt -230 Reforestation Fuel economy Afforestation of packages – Cars pastureland FIGURE 11.9 Eighty-three options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions could result in almost 3 billion metric tons of emissions reductions Figure 11-9.eps with net economic benefits (bars below the line) about equal to net costs (bars above the line)
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From page 98... ...
"We have said clearly -- and we maintain quite clearly -- that energy efficiency is very difficult to achieve." However, Creyts added, compared with the challenge of liquefying carbon dioxide gas coming out of the back end of a power plant, pumping it underground, and keeping it there for thousands of years, efficiency improvements deserve special attention. Ostrowski and Creyts also noted that in many cases policies have to change to enable implementation of emissions-reducing options, and the McKinsey study did not factor in the costs of those policies.
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From page 99... ...
"That could lead to a large amount of stranded assets here in the United States."
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From page 100... ...
/metric ton CO2e metric tons CO2e Cellulosic -18 100 • Commercialization with various biofuels feedstocks and conversion processes Fuel economy – -81 95 • Various technology upgrades to improve cars fuel efficiency • Greater use of alternative propulsion Fuel economy – systems (diesel) -69 70 light trucks Fuel economy – medium/ -8 30 • Technology upgrades to improve fuel y heavy trucks efficiency Light-duty • Plug-in capability in addition to basic 15 20 plug-in hybrids hybridization • Hybridization of medium and heavy trucks y y Other 25 • Aircraft fuel efficiency from design and operations • Reduced leakage from air conditioning systems Figure 11-12.eps FIGURE 11.12 Vehicle fuel economy and lower-carbon fuels will be essential to reduce broadside transportation emissions.
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From page 101... ...
/metric ton CO2e metric tons CO2e Description Afforestation – 18 130 • New trees primarily on marginal or idle land pastureland where erosion is high and/or productivity is low Forest • Active – thinning, stand improvement management 23 110 • Passive – restricted grazing, natural regeneration • Restoration of degraded forests Afforestation – cropland 39 80 • New trees primarily on marginal or idle land where erosion is high and/or productivity is low Conservation • Planting crops amid previous crop's residue, -7 80 tillage e.g., using ridge tillage and no-till farming Winter cover 27 40 • Planting harvested cropland with grass or crops legume cover crop during winter Other <5 • Elimination of summer fallow i ti Figure 11-14.eps FIGURE 11.14 Terrestrial carbonbroadside substantial abatement potential at moder sinks offer ate cost. SOURCE: McKinsey & Company (2007)
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From page 102... ...
FIGURE 11.15 Electric powerFigure 11-15.epslarge but higher-cost abatement poten generation offers broadside tial. SOURCE: McKinsey & Company (2007)
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