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Countering Terrorism Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems: Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Selected Papers, 4 Tendencies in Global Terrorism--Raphael Perl
Pages 23-31

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From page 23...
... Selected Papers
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From page 25...
... Trends can be important indicators of levels and types of terrorist activity, can help governments formulate responsive counterterrorism strategies, and can assist both policy makers and policy implementers in allocating resources effectively. Standing alone, a trend is not necessarily good or bad.
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From page 26...
... government physical infrastructure overseas or at home might encourage terrorists to shift the focus of attacks to softer nongovernment targets. Similarly, government implementation of better systems to evaluate the authenticity and content of travel documents at lawful ports of entry might prompt terrorists to switch from the legal entry tactics employed by the September 11, 2001, hijackers to illegal border crossings at unsecured locations.
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From page 27...
... One qualitatively creative incident may immediately prove to be a trend by sparking copycat follow-on terror incidents with a resultant change in terrorists' strategy, tactics, and targets. TENDENCIES IDENTIFIED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE Each year, the Department of State produces an annual report on terrorism that is considered by many to be one of the best analyses of global terrorist activity.
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From page 28...
... intelligence community at the time of their compilation. An unclassified version of key judgments from an April 2006 NIE relating to trends in global terrorism identifies what can be broadly characterized as 10 basic tendencies in global terrorism.
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From page 29...
... 10. We can expect an overall ongoing trend towards urban terrorist attacks, which relates directly to the topic of our meeting today.4 A PERSONAL ASSESSMENT OF BASIC TERRORIST TENDENCIES I would now like to provide some personal thoughts on the evolution of basic terrorist tendencies.
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From page 30...
... • Terrorism will prove to be increasing costly to societies, in both the economic costs of added security and the trade-offs of civil liberties for enhanced security. It is estimated that the increased global macroeconomic costs of added security in the wake of the September 11, 2001, attacks exceed $1 trillion.
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From page 31...
... 4. Note that the NIE does not specifically identify such an overall trend, but from its overall reading, such a tendency towards urban attacks appears implied and inherent throughout the unclassified summary of the document.
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Key Terms

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  • jihadist terrorism
  • added security

  • popular support
  • unclassified version
  • suicide bombings
  • global terrorist
  • terrorist responses

  • defining terrorist
  • urban terrorist
  • increased global
  • terrorist threat
  • global economic

  • terrorist acts
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