Countering Terrorism Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems: Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop (2009) / Chapter Skim
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7 Characteristics of Technological Terrorism Scenarios and Impact Factors--Nikolai A. Makhutov, Vitaly P. Petrov, and Dmitry O. Reznikov
7 Characteristics of Technological Terrorism Scenarios and Impact Factors--Nikolai A. Makhutov, Vitaly P. Petrov, and Dmitry O. Reznikov
Pages 53-69
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From page 53... ...
Reznikov, Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Machine Sciences INTRODUCTION Technological terrorism is defined as actions directed against infrastructure elements critically important for national security or committed with the use of especially hazardous technologies, technical means, and materials. In considering technological terrorism scenarios, the primary impact factors of such terrorist acts initiate secondary catastrophic processes with a significantly higher (tens and hundreds of times)
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From page 54... ...
Characteristics of the perception of the terrorist threat: A significant part of the population is inclined to fear terrorist attacks to a greater degree than equivalent natural and technogenic phenomena as described in the equation R = Hn·V·U where n < 1, the indicator for the degree characterizing the subjective perception of the consequences of terrorist acts. Complex nature of the terrorist threat: The presence of a terrorist organization in a region may give rise to the possibility of a broad spectrum of attack scenarios, including the time, place, and character of the attack.
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From page 55... ...
Furthermore, there are types of terrorist actions with no analogues in the structure of impact factors typical of natural and technogenic disasters: for example, cyberterrorism or electromagnetic actions aimed at knocking control systems out of commission. Global nature of terrorist threats: As a rule, the geographic distribution of sources of natural and technogenic threats is limited to regions where hazardous facilities are located or zones subject to natural hazards (river valleys for floods, seismic fault zones for earthquakes, tsunamis, and so forth)
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If the initiating action is a terrorist attack, the interactions among the various factors included in the risk assessment equation are more complex. Similar to the expression above, terrorism risk is presented as follows: RT = PA × P(NU/A)
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If a terrorist action occurs, the presence of powerful two-way linkages among the risk factors should be noted (see Figure 7-1B) .3 In particular, reducing the vulnerability of a given system makes it possible to reduce substantially the level of the terrorist threat it faces.
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The following section will cover the main types of scenarios for technological terrorism. Electromagnetic Terrorism Scenarios Modern critically important facilities (ground- and space-based communications systems, telecommunications systems, computer networks, power plants, transport control systems, nuclear industry facilities, and so forth)
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Use of electromagnetic emissions to detonate mines or other explosive devices placed for the purpose of sabotage Cyberterrorism Scenarios The development of computer networks and information systems based on packet commutation technology has created a new communications and information environment that is vulnerable to terrorist acts.5 Attacks by computer terrorists could be aimed at specific elements of the information infrastructure itself, possibly by means of computer networks, or at other targets present in one way or another in this environment. The network infrastructure as such could be of enormous value to terrorists, inasmuch as it provides a cheap and effective means of interaction and communication and serves as a source from which information may be obtained.
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Computer terrorism scenarios may be particularly effective if used in combination with physical actions against critically important targets. In such cases, a cyberattack is used as a factor intensifying the effect of the physical attack by countering the efforts of rapid-response services and communications and command systems, providing false output data that cause leaders and personnel to take inadequate actions, or creating panic among the public.
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From page 61... ...
Thus, the relative ease of producing biological weapons, the practical invulnerability of the perpetrators, and the possibility of damages on a huge scale make biological attack scenarios attractive to terrorists. Chemical Terrorism Scenarios Dangerous chemicals are found everywhere in modern industrial society and, consequently, may be accessible to terrorists.7 The following four attack scenarios related to chemical terrorism may be highlighted: 1.
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A dangerous chemical could be intentionally discharged by destroying a chemical container with the help of a conventional explosive device or by sabotaging the manufacturing process at the facility, leading to an emergency situation. Terrorists could also set off an improvised explosive device to blow a hole in a rail tank car being used to transport a dangerous chemical.
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Radiation Terrorism Scenarios Scenarios for terrorist acts using radiation sources may be divided into three groups: (1) detonation of a nuclear explosive device, (2)
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Scenarios for Terrorist Attacks Using Explosives Because the goal of any terrorist act is to create maximum resonance in society with minimal costs and minimal risk, the use of explosives for terrorist purposes has become widespread. Potential targets of terrorist attacks could include critically important facilities of undoubted interest from the standpoint of inflicting damage and creating significant societal impact.
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Additional difficulties that must be faced in evaluating the likelihood that various terrorist attack scenarios will be carried out are associated with the value system of terrorists (that is, their usefulness function) differing notably from the traditional value system.
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Scientific methodological aspects and applied developments have become the focus of joint analysis within the framework of a program for countering technological terrorism being carried out jointly by the Russian Academy of Sciences and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences13 and under the Science for Peace Program of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.14 Figure 7-2 presents a three-sided model that facilitates assessment of terrorist attack scenarios and counteractions by antiterrorist forces.
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Removal of social Graph 3 infrastructure from affected zone 9. Usefulness to municipal authorities 67 FIGURE 7-2 Three-sided terrorism risk assessment model.
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Fundamental differences are also noted in the usefulness elements of each graph, inasmuch as the usefulness functions for terrorists, facility officials, and the municipal authorities may take completely different factors into account. Terrorists, for example, may be oriented primarily toward infliction of the initial blow and on the expenditures necessary for carrying out the attack, while for facility officials the usefulness function must also include secondary damage and the cost of implementing various protective measures.
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2004. Technological terrorism and methods of countering terrorist threats.
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