Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census (2009) / Chapter Skim
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3 Plans for the 2010 Census
3 Plans for the 2010 Census
Pages 55-80
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From page 55... ...
, coverage follow-up interviews, and removal of duplicate enumerations during the census. A Short-Form Only Census Since 2005 the Census Bureau has been fielding the American Community Survey (ACS) , a continuous version of the decennial census long form.
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From page 56... ...
Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Census Bureau; 2010 Census Key Operational Milestone Schedule.
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From page 57... ...
Coverage Follow-Up Interviews The Census Bureau is greatly expanding the percentage of housing units for which there will be a coverage follow-up interview in 2010 in comparison with the housing units in 2000 for which there was a coverage edit follow-up. The 2000 coverage edit follow-up was used to determine the correct count and characteristics for two situations: households with more than six residents (since the census form had space for information for only six persons)
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From page 58... ...
4. Positive response to the coverage probes for census omissions, namely: "Were there any additional people staying here Census Day that you did not include in Question 1?
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From page 59... ...
In other words, the Census Bureau may have to set priorities by selecting a subset of the qualifying households that are more likely to provide information that would result in coverage improvements. Removal of Duplicate Enumerations During the Census As noted above, the coverage follow-up interviews will be used to collect more information on suspected duplicate enumerations that are identified through use of a national computer search, with the objective of determin ing whether they are in fact duplicates and, if so, which of the addresses (if either)
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From page 60... ...
. As noted above, the Census Bureau in 2010 will attempt to identify and delete duplicate persons and housing units during the census.
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The Census Bureau will strongly suspect that it is a duplicate pair but will be unable to delete either enumeration given the lack of a way to identify the correct residence. Given the political sensitivity of the deletion of a census enumeration, a coverage follow-up interview is required for deletion of one of a dupli cate pair, even if the duplicate status is essentially unambiguous given the above matching characteristics, and even if the residence rules are clear as to which residence is correct.
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From page 62... ...
The coverage follow-up interviews and the national search for dupli cates could provide substantial benefits over previous censuses in identi fying and removing many census duplicates during the field enumeration and in reducing the occurrence of other census coverage errors. However, there are many potential complications in implementation that might limit the benefits from the introduction of these processes in 2010.
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From page 63... ...
Therefore, the Census Bureau should save the responses, at least for a sample of enumerations, to the coverage followup interview questions and the final decisions made regarding the assess ment of enumeration status. In addition to retaining information on the functioning of the followup process, it will also be important to know the extent to which the follow-up process moved census counts closer to the truth.
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From page 64... ...
are a problem. Looking ahead, to further improve on the use of this new process, the panel also believes it is impor tant for the Census Bureau to undertake research during the postcensal period in the following areas: • the potential for StARS to help target the cases that are included in the set of coverage follow-up interviews; • the potential for StARS to help resolve potential duplicate enumerations; • the potential use of StARS to augment the CCM personal inter views for resolving duplicate status; • how to optimally set the "bar" for inclusion in the coverage follow interviews; • how best to discriminate between person and whole household duplication; and • in general, how to evaluate census unduplication procedures.
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From page 65... ...
However, due to concerns about statistical independence between the census and the postenumeration survey data collections, the Census Bureau does not currently plan to use information from the census coverage follow-up interviews to help ascertain duplicate status in the CCM. The panel does not agree with this decision: the panel does not understand why census information should not be used to assist in such determinations, since the goal is the proper estimation of the frequency of P-sample matches and E-sample correct enumerations.
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From page 66... ...
To return to the panel's concern, there is a need to retain as much data as possible to support a comprehensive analysis of the components of census coverage error to enable one to answer as many questions as possible to inform the design of the 2020 census. In particular, given the importance of the coverage follow-up interview and given that it has never been fully tested by the Census Bureau, the panel thinks it is critically important to retain as much information as possible about the functioning of the coverage follow-up interview in 2010 for a substantial sample of cases, especially for those cases in the postenumeration survey block clusters: with such information, the status of every case before and
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From page 67... ...
The decennial census is subject to a considerable amount of duplica tion, to a large extent due to the multiple ways someone can be enumerated in the census. As noted above, to reduce duplication, the Census Bureau is implementing a national search of census enumerations for duplicates, followed by follow-up interviews to confirm if the apparent duplicates are actually duplicates and to determine correct census residence.
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From page 68... ...
If the amount of contamination is small enough to be ignored, then the Census Bureau could allow both interviews in the field in 2010; in that case, it would be valuable to assess the effects of the coverage follow-up interviews on the quality of the CCM interviews. There were two attempts to measure contamination in the 2006 census test.
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From page 69... ...
If this situation is likely to persist in 2020, it would be extremely important for the Census Bureau to examine, during the early part of the decade, the effects on respondents of several interviews occurring close in time, especially interviews with similar content. Such research will be compli cated by the fact that households that reach the thresholds for coverage follow-up interviews are likely to be difficult-to-enumerate cases, which will confound any inference.
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From page 70... ...
Also, if these additions or corrections are considerably different in coverage error char acteristics in comparison with the remainder of the population, it would add a bias to the dual-systems estimates. As defined, one could include the coverage follow-up interviews that occurred prior to the CCM inter views in the truncated census, in which case the net coverage error models could condition on whether a follow-up interview was carried out prior to the CCM interviews: this would remove any bias if the P-sample inclu sion probabilities depended on the occurrence of the coverage follow-up interviews (but not on its outcome; for details, see Bell, 2005)
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From page 71... ...
However, arguments for or against various alternatives are now moot, given the Census Bureau's decision. The CCM interviews may not begin until late August or September 2010, which means there will be a relatively larger number of movers between Census Day and the CCM interviews in comparison with the number of movers in 2000.
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From page 72... ...
Whether or not the Census Bureau reconsiders the start date for the CCM, it should endeavor to begin CCM interviewing as soon as possible after the completion of the great majority of the census data collection, which one hopes would be before late July. Consistent with this, to the extent that it is feasible, the management of the coverage follow-up and the CCM data collections should be organized to limit the potential for contamination by selectively starting the CCM data collection in those areas in which the coverage follow-up interviewing has been completed,
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From page 73... ...
In particu lar, the postenumeration survey in a particular area should start as soon as possible after the completion of the great majority of the census data collection -- hopefully before late July. The Census Bureau should also consider census designs for 2010 in which there is some modest overlap between coverage follow-up and CCM data collections.
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From page 74... ...
Now, however, several of the limitations just noted have been addressed. The quality and availability of national administrative records are improv ing, computing power has increased dramatically, and the research group on administrative records at the Census Bureau has achieved some impres sive results.
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We believe it is crucial to comprehensively assess their potential now for use in the 2020 census. We propose six potentially feasible uses of administrative records in a census: to improve the MAF or other address lists, in late-stage non response follow-up, for item imputation, to improve targeting of coverage follow-up interviews, for assistance on the status of nonmatches, and to evaluate a census coverage measurement program.
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From page 76... ...
Assistance in Late-Stage Nonresponse Follow-Up The Census Bureau makes several attempts using field enumerators to collect information from mail nonrespondents to the census. When these attempts fail to col lect information, attempts are made to locate a proxy respondent and, when that fails, hot-deck imputation (filling in for the nonresponse with the data for a randomly selected, geographically proximate household)
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From page 77... ...
Evaluation of the Census Coverage Measurement Program The q uality of many of the steps leading to production of dual-systems esti mates might be checked using administrative records. For example, administrative records information might be used to assess the quality of the address list in the P-sample blocks, to assess the quality of the matching operation, or to assess the quality of the small-area estimation of population counts.
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From page 78... ...
If data from StARS are used successfully in the coverage follow-up interviews in 2010 or if early tests of administrative records in the next decade strongly indicate their applicability and value for various census applications, the Census Bureau could consider even more ambitious uses of administrative data in the 2020 census. Specifically, for many housing units, the Census Bureau might use administrative data not just to replace late-stage follow-up, but as a replacement for the entire nonresponse f ollow-up interview.
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From page 79... ...
These three issues are not compelling arguments against moving forward, but they would need to be addressed before the Census Bureau could implement their use in 2020. In summary, if the Census Bureau is to position itself to be able to make an informed decision about the value of administrative records to fulfill a variety of possible functions in the 2020 census, it needs to make use of the various testing opportunities in both the 2010 census and in the early part of the 2010–2020 intercensal period to assess which of the applications listed here are feasible and effective.
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From page 80... ...
80 COVERAGE MEASUREMENT IN THE 2010 CENSUS Recommendation 5: The Census Bureau should use the various testing opportunities in both the 2010 census and in the early part of the 2010–2020 intercensal period to assess how administrative records can be used in the 2020 census.
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