Severe Space Weather Events–Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts A Workshop Report: Extended Summary (2009) / Chapter Skim
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THE IMPACT OF SPACE WEATHER
THE IMPACT OF SPACE WEATHER
Pages 4-16
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Electric Power Industry During intense geomagnetic storms, the auroral oval moves to lower, more densely populated latitudes, where rapidly varying ionospheric currents associated with the aurora can produce direct-current flows in the electrical power grid. Such geomagnetically induced currents (GICs)
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The principal cause of space-weather-related spacecraft anomalies and failures is radiation in the form of solar energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and energetic particles trapped within Earth's radiation belts or accelerated during magnetospheric substorms. In order to design spacecraft that can withstand the effects of continuous exposure to space radiation and operate 24/7 for 10 to 15 years, spacecraft designers need accurate long-term models of the radiation environment and information about the statistical distribution of extreme events (e.g., the space weather equivalent of the "100-year storm")
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Because of the clear economic benefits, the use of polar routes has grown dramatically over the last decade. In 2007, thirteen carriers flew polar routes for a combined total of almost 7300 polar flights, an increase of nearly 2000 flights from the prior year.
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Changes in the polar ionosphere caused by solar energetic particle precipitation can degrade or totally black out HF radio communication. Transpolar flights must therefore be re-routed during intense solar radiation storms (solar energetic particle events)
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, which provides precision horizontal and vertical navigation service over the continental United States, Alaska, and most of Canada and Mexico. WAAS effectively increases the capacity of the aviation system by allowing for reduced horizontal and vertical separation standards between planes without additional risk and by providing highly accurate vertical positioning that enables precision approaches and landings.
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Future Vulnerabilities: The Specter of Extreme Space Weather Past With increasing awareness and understanding of space weather and its effects on modern technological systems, vulnerable industries have adopted procedures and technologies designed to mitigate the impacts of space weather on their operations and customers. As noted above, airlines re-route flights scheduled for polar routes during intense solar energetic particle events in order to preserve reliable communications.
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Our understanding of the vulnerabilities of modern technologies to severe space weather and the protective measures that have been developed are based largely on lessons learned during the past 20 or 30 years, during such episodes of severe space weather as the geomagnetic storms of March 1989 and October-November 2003. As severe as these recent events have been, the historical record reveals that space weather of even greater severity has occurred in the past (e.g., the "Carrington Event" of 1859 and the great magnetic storm of May 1921)
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. Collateral Impacts of Severe Space Weather An assessment of the societal and economic impacts of severe space weather must look beyond such direct space weather effects as spacecraft anomalies and power grid outages and consider how disruptions of vulnerable technological systems can affect the various sectors of society that are dependent on the functioning of these systems.
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Regions with high percentages could experience longduration power outages lasting several years. (Image courtesy of John Kappenman, Metatech Corporation.)
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The socioeconomic impacts of a long-term outage, requiring replacement of permanently damaged transformers, could be extensive and serious. According to an estimate by the Metatech Corporation, the total cost of a long-term, wide-area blackout caused by an extreme space weather event could be as much as $1 trillion to $2 trillion during the first year, with full recovery requiring 4 to 10 years depending on the extent of the damage.
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. arrayed in a drapery more gorgeous than they have been for years." The aurora that New Yorkers witnessed that Sunday night, the New York Times assured its readers, "will be referred to hereafter among the events which occur but once or twice in a lifetime."8 Low-latitude red auroras, such as those widely reported to have been observed during the Carrington Event, are a characteristic feature of major geomagnetic storms.
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In addition to the low-latitude auroras and intense auroral currents responsible for the telegraph outages, all of the phenomena known today to be characteristic of a major magnetic storm occurred as well, although the mid-19th century lacked the means to detect and measure them, and its most sophisticated technologies were unaffected by them: an increased Earthward flow of magnetospheric plasma, creating or intensifying the ring current; the explosive release of stored magnetic energy in multiple magnetospheric substorms; an increase in the energy content of the radiation belts as well as the possible creation of temporary new belts; and changes in the ionospheric and thermospheric density at midlatitudes. Recent analysis of ice core data indicates that the geomagnetic storm was also accompanied by a solar energetic particle event four times more intense than the most severe solar energetic particle event of the space age.
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"Security externalities" emerge due to interdependencies, lack of knowledge, lack of slack, lack of trust, and lack of ways to overcome coordination problems. Space storms of the magnitude of the Carrington Event are fortunately very rare, and the risk that such an event might cause a long-term catastrophic power grid collapse with major socioeconomic disruptions, while real, is low.
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