Letter Report on the Review of the Food Safety and Inspection Service Proposed Risk-Based Approach to and Application of Public-Health Attribution (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Attachment G FOODBORNE DISEASE ATTRIBUTION
Attachment G FOODBORNE DISEASE ATTRIBUTION
Pages 45-52
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From page 45... ...
The first is to compare the attribution estimates obtained from the FSIS 2007 expert elicitation with those from two other sources: an independent expert elicitation performed by Resources for the Future (RFF) /Carnegie Mellon and those derived from a disease outbreak database complied by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
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From page 46... ...
coli O157 Listeria M Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact chicken 8.9 0.4 1.3 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact turkey 6.8 0.3 1.2 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact poultry -- other 2.8 0.4 0.9 than chicken or turkey Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef 8.4 57 1.9 Raw intact chicken 22.0 1.1 1.3 Raw intact turkey 14.1 0.3 0.8 Raw intact poultry -- other than chicken or turkey 3.7 0.7 1.4 Raw otherwise processed poultry 5.6 0.6 1.4 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact meat -- other 2.7 13.8 0.8 than beef or pork Raw otherwise processed meat 3.5 2.9 1.5 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact pork 4.3 1.4 0.9 Raw intact beef 4.6 8.4 1.4 Raw intact meat -- other than beef or pork 2.2 2.6 0.4 Raw intact pork 2.8 1.3 0.6 (Continued)
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From page 47... ...
1.6 0.3 4.4 RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 1.0 4.2 6.4 RTE fully cooked poultry 1.0 0.2 25.0 RTE salt-cured poultry 0.6 0.2 4.0 RTE salt-cured meat 0.5 0.8 3.6 RTE dried meat 0.9 1.3 3.2 RTE dried poultry 1.0 0.2 3.2 RTE fully cooked meat 0.5 1.1 30.2 RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure to 0.3 0.3 2.1 the environment RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent exposure to 0.3 0.3 2.0 the environment Thermally processed, commercially sterile 0.0 0.0 0.1 Source: Karns et al.
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From page 48... ...
With respect to FSIS-inspected products, the RFF and CDC studies considered the general food categories of beef/meat, poultry, pork, and deli meats, while the FSIS expert elicitation covered 25 specific FSISinspected food categories. To compare the results of all three studies with respect to meat and poultry food categories, we collapse the 25 food categories to four meat and poultry food categories.
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From page 49... ...
TABLE 2-4 Correspondence between FSIS Expert Elicitation Categories and General Meat and Poultry Categories FSIS Food categories Meat and Poultry Categories Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef Meat Raw intact beef Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact meat -- other than beef or pork Raw otherwise processed meat Raw intact meat -- other than beef or pork Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise Poultry nonintact chicken Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact turkey Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact poultry -- other than chicken or turkey Raw intact chicken Raw intact turkey Raw intact poultry -- other than chicken or turkey Raw otherwise processed poultry Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact pork Pork Raw intact pork All RTE categories Deli meats TABLE 2-5a Comparison of Normalized Attribution (Percentage) Developed by the FSIS, RFF, and CDC Studies Finished Product Type Salmonella E
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From page 50... ...
coli O157 Listeria M RFF CDC Av RFF CDC Av RFF CDC Av FSIS Inspected 53.6 37.4 45 71.3 55.4 63 59.6 70.7 65 Foods FDA Inspected 46.4 62.6 55 28.7 44.6 37 40.4 29.3 35 Foods 45% FSIS Contribution to Total Illness Adjust for % contribution of Individual Food Groups 3 Normalized Attribution (%) Attribution Major Food Final Attribution Estimate Studies Types Product Salmonella Product Salmonella Type Type Meat Salmonella Meat 22.5 Raw intact beef 2.2 Meat 10.0 Raw intact meat – 1.0 Poultry 63.0 Poultry 28.4 other than beef or pork Pork 9.8 Pork 4.4 Raw ground beef 3.9 RTE 4.8 Raw ground, meat – 1.3 RTE 2.2 other than beef or Total 100 pork Total 45 Raw otherwise 1.6 processed meat Sum Meat 10.0 FIGURE 3-1 Example of process for estimating attribution for 25 FSIS food categories.
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From page 51... ...
coli O157 Listeria M Meat Raw intact beef 2.2 5.8 0.2 Raw intact meat -- other than beef or pork 1.0 1.8 0.1 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef 3.9 39.2 0.3 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact meat -- other 1.3 9.5 0.1 than beef or pork Raw otherwise processed meat 1.6 2.0 0.2 Sum Meat 10.0 58.3 0.8 Poultry Raw intact chicken 9.8 0.5 0.27 Raw intact turkey 6.3 0.1 0.15 Raw intact poultry -- other than chicken or turkey 1.7 0.3 0.30 Raw otherwise processed poultry 2.5 0.2 0.30 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact chicken 4.0 0.2 0.27 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact turkey 3.0 0.1 0.27 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact poultry -- other 1.3 0.2 0.19 than chicken or turkey Sum Poultry 28.4 1.6 1.75 Pork Raw intact pork 1.7 0.4 0.31 Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact pork 2.7 0.5 0.47 Sum Pork 4.4 0.9 0.78 RTE RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) 0.4 0.1 3.1 RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking)
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From page 52... ...
2007. Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products.
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