The Domestic and International Impacts of the 2009-H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic Global Challenges, Global Solutions: Workshop Summary (2010) / Chapter Skim
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A2 Predicting Emerging Diseases in the Twenty-first Century: The Case of Zoonotic Influenza
A2 Predicting Emerging Diseases in the Twenty-first Century: The Case of Zoonotic Influenza
Pages 111-119
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16 A2 PREDICTING EMERGING DISEASES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: THE CASE OF ZOONOTIC INFLUENZA Kurt J Vandegrift, Parviez Hosseini, Ph.D., and Peter Daszak, Ph.D.
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In the same vein, substantial molecular phylogenetic evidence points to a Central-West African origin of HIV-1 from chimpanzees, a species widely hunted for bush meat there. The origins of SARS and some Ebola virus outbreaks have also been linked to the consumption of wildlife.
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Thus, in our database of emerging diseases, we find zoonotic diseases emerging from this complex network of globalized agriculture and trade. Taking the database of emerging diseases, we surveyed the literature for the most accurate information available on the geographic origin of the first known outbreaks for each pathogen.
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We found that zoonotic diseases from wildlife were strongly correlated with human density and mammalian biodiversity, suggesting that it is regions where human populations are coming into close contact with wildlife that are most at risk for the highest impact of future zoonotic emerging infectious diseases (EIDs)
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For example, it can point to the involvement of swine production, but, due to the incomplete surveillance and availability of global swine influenza sequences for the past two decades, it is currently not possible to trace back the virus spread through the swine trade. Likewise, it is currently impossible to deduce the relative roles of swine production, poultry production, wild bird migration, and human travel in the emergence of the strain.
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In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009-H1N1 influenza A cases was significantly delayed, reflecting a likely lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other demographic issues. We concluded that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future may include enhanced surveillance for reassortant strains in traded livestock and rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict spread and where lower healthcare resources predict delays in reporting.
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includes the most commonly infected species and the prevalence for influenza viruses normally ranges between 1 and 15 percent (Olsen et al., 2006)
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However, we believe the potential reduction in pandemic risk would be a wise investment because the predicted pandemic mortality and associated economic costs are within the tens of billions of dollars (Meltzer et al., 1999)
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2008. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.
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