When Weather Matters Science and Services to Meet Critical Societal Needs (2010) / Chapter Skim
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4 Emerging Weather Research and Transitional Needs
4 Emerging Weather Research and Transitional Needs
Pages 89-134
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From page 89... ...
As mentoned prevously, vrtually all research and R2o needs have both establshed and emergng aspects, and so many of the challenges and needs cted n chapter 3 are relevant as well, and are closely coupled to those dscussed here n chapter 4. VERy HIGH IMPACT WEATHER Weather-related dsasters result n loss of lfe and dsrupton of communtes as well as bllons of dollars n damages n the Unted states an 89
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From page 90... ...
90 90 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs nually. Between 1980 and 2009 there were 96 major dsasters caused by VHI weather events that resulted n losses exceedng 1 bllon dollars each (ncDc, 2010)
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From page 91... ...
A New Impacts Paradigm the atmospherc communty has for many years worked dlgently to mprove the accuracy and resoluton n space and tme of the raw quanttes predcted by numercal models, such as temperature, humdty, wnd, and precptaton. statstcal technques have been used to predct addtonal quanttes and to ntroduce probablty of precptaton and other derved forecast parameters.
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From page 92... ...
At lower left are radar observations and numerical-model radar renditions of a hurricane. The figure in the upper left illustrates the new impacts paradigm, which predicts areas of power outages and restoration times.
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From page 93... ...
n a semnal paper on the development and applcaton of jont decson-makng probabltes of rver stage predctons and user rsk tolerances. Severe and Disruptive Weather Hazards Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Although there has been sgnficant mprovement n hurrcane track forecasts, progress has been mnmal wth regard to storm ntensty forecasts.
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From page 94... ...
Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms there has been consderable mprovement n understandng, predctng, and warnng for these hazardous phenomena as a consequence of success ful research programs, deployment of a natonal network of Doppler radars, and other natonal Weather servce (nWs) modernzaton actvtes n the 1990s.
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From page 95... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 95 Flash Floods In many ways, flash floods are among the most dfficult phenomena to predct (see the dscussons n chapter 3)
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From page 96... ...
96 96 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs s further addressed n the Mesoscale observatonal needs and QPe/QPF sectons of chapter 3. Wildfires Wldfires are another opportunty to apply a new paradgm for mpacts forecastng.
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From page 97... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 97 ng costs and the Unted states economy $41 bllon. As the volume of ar transportaton ncreases, the demand for even greater efficency wll requre mproved qualty and use of weather nformaton.
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From page 98... ...
98 98 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs flood n the Unted states. Floodng occurred across nne states, resultng n 48 deaths and approxmately $21 bllon n damages (ncDc, 2010)
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From page 99... ...
. Impacts of Climate Change on Very High Impact Weather A major challenge s to understand the effects of clmate change on VHI weather and ts potental long-term socoeconomc mplcatons.
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From page 100... ...
Recommendation: The federal agencies and their state and local govern ment partners, along with private-sector partners, should place high pri ority on providing not only improved weather forecasts but also explicit impact forecasts. An effective integrated weather–impacts prediction system should utilize high-quality and high-resolution meteorological 4 Refer also to the dscusson n the modelng and observatons sectons n chapter 3.
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From page 101... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 101 analysis and forecast information as part of coupled prediction systems for VHI weather situations. ths wll requre • fundamental research n both the physcal and socal scences to mprove understandng and predcton of VHI weather phenomena, and the provson of warnngs and rsk assessments n support of dec son makng; • development of mpact parameters and representatons for mul tple applcatons (e.g., morbdty, electrc grd vulnerablty, surge and flood nundaton areas)
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From page 102... ...
102 102 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs decson makng and rsk management for ther clents. obvous examples nclude preparaton for storms, crop forecasts, energy management and tradng, arlne operatons, shp ocean routng and port operatons, and rec reatonal enterprses, to name but a few.
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From page 103... ...
Prorty needs to be gven to mprovng understandng and predcton of these phenomena, partcularly toward developng and mplementng mpact-predcton systems n order to meet crtcal socetal needs. URBAN METEOROLOGy Global Urbanization snce the end of the second World War, urbanzaton of the world's populaton has gven rse to more than 400 ctes around the world wth populatons n excess of 1 mllon and more than 25 so-called megactes wth populatons of over 10 mllon (e.g., Fgure 4.2; Brnkhoff, 2010; Pearce, 2006)
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From page 104... ...
104 104 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs FIGURE 4.2 At about 6,340 people per square kilometer, the population density of Hong Kong is among the highest on Earth. SOURCE: Wikipedia.
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From page 105... ...
MSAs are delineated on the basis of a central urbanized area, which is a contiguous area of relatively high population density with a population greater than 50,000. The counties containing the urbanized core are known as the central counties of the MSA; surrounding or outlying counties are included in the MSA if they have strong social and economic ties to the central counties as measured by commuting and employment.
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From page 106... ...
106 106 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs the Unted states has a populaton of more than 308,500,000.6 It s largely an urban populaton, wth about 81 percent resdng n MsAs or µsAs as of md-2005; the equvalent worldwde urban rate was 49 percent (Un, 2008)
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From page 107... ...
As a consequence, metropoltan areas are senstve to meteorologcal events at a dstance, such as wldfires or strong wnds damagng electrcal servces or a declne n mountan snowpack reducng the avalable supply of water. The Need: A National Initiative to Enhance Urban Meteorological Services A natonal ntatve to enhance meteorologcal servces talored to and provded n MsAs s a hgh-prorty need for a wde varety of stakeholders, ncludng the general publc, commerce and ndustry, and all levels of government.
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From page 108... ...
108 108 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs lfe, property, servces, and urban nfrastructure. some of the actvtes that need to be ncluded n such an ntatve nclude • Conducting basic research and development n boundary-layer me teorology; observatons and network desgn; meso- and mcroscale meteo rology; data assmlaton and predcton systems; road, ral, and avaton weather; ar qualty and atmospherc chemstry; and hydrometeorology.
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From page 109... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 109 In the Unted states, the expertse needed to carry out the actvtes descrbed above s dstrbuted. the nWs has a natonal observng system and produces a wde range of forecast products each day.
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From page 110... ...
Deep Thunder demonstrated that wth adequate computatonal resources t s pos sble to produce useful predcton products for the urban envronment.10 snce the publcaton of PDt–10 and –11, new challenges and op portuntes have arsen. For example, some urban and regonal planners, publc health officals, and meteorologsts have developed an apprecaton 9 see http://www.wcc3.org/sessons.php?
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From page 111... ...
• Evolution of the urban boundary layer: Urban surface propertes (roughness, albedo, emssvty, heat capacty and conductvty, and permeablty) and ther changes wth locaton n the metropoltan area contrbute to the evoluton of the urban boundary layer across the cty.
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From page 112... ...
112 112 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs needs to be taken of local bodes of water and regonal topography that can produce land and sea breeze effects and varous types of slope-related wnds. • Urban heat island: Ambent temperatures are moderated locally by surface heatng, producng an urban "sland" of warm ar as first quantfied by Luke Howard n 1833.
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From page 113... ...
Urban Weather Testbeds Urban testbeds are needed n ctes wth wdely dfferent annual clmates and settngs (topography; water bodes) to conduct the research necessary to understand the phenomena mentoned above, to test observng and modelng technques, and to develop and test products and servces under a wde range of condtons.
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From page 114... ...
114 114 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs very dverse populaton found n urban areas, also requre consderaton. the advantages of employng a testbed strategy nclude efficences, formal opportuntes to leverage earler results from other researchers and other research actvtes, and a well-focused R2o msson.
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From page 115... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 115 High-Impact Weather in the Urban Context Forecasters and researchers need to work wth local government agences, prvate weather provders, and end users to dentfy and prortze the weather servces and products needed to address stuatons wth hgh-value/ crtcal mpacts (see pror dscusson of VHI weather)
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From page 116... ...
116 116 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs such as lapse rate, wnd shear, and mxng depth. the network mght also nclude a moble component wth nstrumentaton on selected vehcles: cty utlty, polce, fire, and emergency response vehcles, and delvery trucks (e.g., Fedex, UPs)
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From page 117... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 117 ctes (ePcc) 13 program; such efforts have demonstrated the feasblty of modelng at the street scale (Best et al., 2006)
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From page 118... ...
Recommendation: The federal government, led by the National Oce anic and Atmospheric Administration, in concert with multiple public and private partners, should identify the resources needed to provide meteorological services that focus on where people live, beginning with a high-priority urban meteorology initiative to create infrastruc ture, products, and services tailored to the special needs of cities. Although noAA should be the lead agency n such an ntatve, ts success wll requre effectve partnershps wth other federal, state, and local government agences, academa, and the prvate sector, as well as wth all sectors of the user communty, both publc and prvate.
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From page 119... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 119 WEATHER INFORMATION TO SUPPORT RENEWABLE ENERGy SITING AND PRODUCTION The Challenge the producton of energy by so-called renewable sources -- prncpally water, bomass, muncpal waste, geothermal, wnd, and solar -- s an ntegral part of the challenge to reduce relance on fossl fuels, acheve a meanngful measure of energy ndependence, and mtgate global warmng by anthropogenc carbon doxde emssons.
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From page 120... ...
120 120 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs wll be 14 percent of the total electrcty generaton from all sources, and that renewable resources wll have accounted for 28 percent of the growth of 1 bllon klowatt-hours n projected electrcty generaton snce 2010. And n the same way, wnd and solar wll contrbute more than 24 percent of the growth n generaton by all renewable resources.
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From page 121... ...
Wind and solar differ from the others in a very important respect; their electricity generation can be highly variable, which in turn places demands on other energy sources to ensure a stable and predictable energy supply. SOURCE: These figures are derived from data contained in the 2009 Annual Energy Outlook produced by the Energy Information Agency (EIA, 2008a,b)
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From page 122... ...
122 122 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs the newest generaton of wnd turbnes have blades that sweep out an area of up to 126 m n dameter and produce up to 6 MW of power (GWec, 2009)
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Wind Turbine Design Wnd turbnes must be desgned to operate n a very turbulent wnd envronment for at least 20 years accordng to the standards of the Internatonal electrotechncal commsson (Iec)
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From page 124... ...
124 124 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs exposed to varable stresses throughout a sgnficant fracton of the lowest regon of the atmospherc planetary boundary layer (PBL) where wnd shear and turbulence are typcally most severe.
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From page 125... ...
However, the improvement since 1993 is less. Also shown are comparable failure rates for steam turbine generators, which have lower failure rates (around 0.2)
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From page 126... ...
126 126 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs tme-varable surface frcton effects, and stable condtons through the lower boundary layer. Wnd farms n areas of terran relef are subject to locally gener ated mechancal turbulence.
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From page 127... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 127 n mnutes. to mtgate the potental for a ramp-up requrement, operatng utltes often keep a spnnng reserve of gas turbne generators runnng ready to fill the power gap.
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From page 128... ...
128 128 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs needed to ntalze nWP models and for data assmlaton models that en hance model performance. they are also requred to assess (valdate)
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From page 129... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 129 Need for Improved Modeling A herarchy of models, each smulatng a range of spatal scales, s requred to address the varous wnd-dependent aspects of wnd turbne/park desgn and operaton, ncludng the followng: • cFD models are needed to specfy turbulence features at, and downwnd of, ndvdual turbnes and assess the flow nteractons among adjacent turbnes. • Hgh-resoluton atmospherc (ncludng large eddy smulaton)
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From page 130... ...
Solar Energy Background solar power refers to the producton of electrcty, drectly or ndrectly, from ambent sunlght. Photovoltac (PV)
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From page 131... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 131 encompass resdental and commercal nstallatons have common needs for relable observatons, hstorcal and real-tme databases, and accurate forecasts on a varety of scales. exstng hstorcal, natonal solar radaton databases are avalable from the Doe natonal Renewable energy Laboratory (nReL, 1995, 2007)
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From page 132... ...
132 132 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs derved solar resource estmates, and on-ste measurements of downwellng solar radaton (all components) and downwellng nfrared radaton.
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From page 133... ...
eMeRGInG WeAtHeR ReseARcH AnD tRAnsItIonAL neeDs 133 wll explctly nclude a focus on support for energy producton from renewable resources.21 Recommendation: The effective design and operation of wind and solar renewable energy production facilities require the development, evalu ation, and implementation of improved and new atmospheric observ ing and modeling capabilities, and the decision support systems they enable. The federal agencies should prioritize and enhance their devel opment and support of the relevant observing and modeling methods, and facilitate their transfer to the private sector for implementation.
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