Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment Report of a Workshop (2010) / Chapter Skim
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3 Evolving Methods and Approaches
3 Evolving Methods and Approaches
Pages 15-20
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the intuitive logics school, starting with the work of Herman Kahn, which begins with drivers and develops sce narios from them; (2) the La Prospective school (Godet, Berger)
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Some empirical evidence exists on the factors affecting scenario effectiveness in various applications, and these studies emphasize the importance of process (rather than products) and of close coupling with decision makers as determinants of effectiveness.
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The medium variant has world population stabilizing at less than 9 billion, but the high and low scenarios are very different from that. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT3 Gary Yohe Gary Yohe spoke on the drivers of economic development and the ways economists look into the future.
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. In the discussion of this presentation, Ottmar Edenhofer suggested that people who study endogenous growth, including technological change, should be included along with growth economists in developing economic scenarios.
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Mathur also discussed the use of backcasting approaches to examine low-carbon pathways across regions to arrive at a warranted global emission trajectory. In such studies, there is often a disconnect between the process of allocating emission reductions across regions in alternative scenarios and the application of a backcasting approach at the regionallocal level to introduce emission reduction choices that can meet the predetermined levels.
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This would require greater involvement of institutions at the regional and local levels to ensure that the assessed reduction potentials being considered in global studies allow for a better encapsulation of regional changes that are likely in the future. QUANTITATIVE DOWNSCALING APPROACHES4 Tom Kram Tom Kram made a presentation on behalf of Detlef Van Vuuren (who was unable to attend)
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