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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment Report of a Workshop (2010) / Chapter Skim
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6 Lessons from Experience
Pages 33-40

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From page 33...
... You have reliable equations in rocket science." He said that experience matters, warning that people are deceiving themselves if they use probabilities, because attending to probabilities leads to inattention to the long tails and to being surprised -- an outcome to be avoided. Schwartz emphasized the need to distinguish things that are predetermined from critical uncertainties that make a large difference to long-term 
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From page 34...
... Wilbanks noted that a survey-based effort led by Granger Morgan to gather lessons from the first USNA found that many participants thought the future would be like the present except for the climate, and others thought that nothing useful could be said about the socioeconomic future because it is so complicated (Morgan et al., 2005)
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From page 35...
... She noted that the assessments report of the National Research Council (2007) suggested conducting a broad, blanket assessment that would try to anticipate bad outcomes and that investments should be made in sci ence related to avoiding those outcomes.
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From page 36...
... • n interactive support capacity could be set up to help people A interpret and apply scenarios. Jacobs noted that, in the past, the USNA provided generic data without asking what was needed.
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From page 37...
... He noted that SRES uses "proxy" drivers, such as population, but does not address "ultimate" drivers, such as values and needs, power structure, and culture. He summarized the ways the SRES scenarios addressed such drivers as population, economic growth, and technological innovation in developing emissions paths.
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From page 38...
... . 7 The UKCIP develops climate projections and uses the resulting information to help organizations in the United Kingdom adapt to "inevitable climate change." For further information, see http://www.ukcip.org.uk [November 2010]
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From page 39...
... Stephane Hallegatte noted that, in France, political pressures restricted the scenarios that could be presented, resulting in politically shaped deci sions to look only at vulnerability to the current climate and to exclude impacts on ski resorts. Based on this experience, he wondered whether scenarios will actually be used.
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