Budgeting for Immigration Enforcement A Path to Better Performance (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Efforts to Model Workload and Resource Requirements
Appendix B: Efforts to Model Workload and Resource Requirements
Pages 139-146
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From page 139... ...
A more useful indicator of EOIR's potential workload would be the trend in apprehensions of non-Mexicans by the Border Patrol. Most non-Mexicans cannot be returned directly to their native countries, and they are likely to appear before immigration courts.
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From page 140... ...
Marshals Service, the Office of the Federal Detention Trustee, and the Federal Prison System." DOJ contracted with BearingPoint, Inc., which built a prototype workflow model (based on readily available data) to test the feasibility of the concept that mathematical relationships can be established and determine what areas should be pursued to build a functional model (U.S.
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From page 141... ...
However, understanding the historical workloads associated with these district statistics would require going directly to the agen cies and gathering this information on a district level. PROJECTING FEDERAL DETENTION POPULATIONS Projecting future detention trends and estimating budgetary resource requirements for the criminal detention program has historically been a difficult task, at both macro and micro levels.
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From page 142... ...
The time-series analysis produces weights that are used in a microsimulation model that generates future booking replicates. Recognizing that simple time-series models may not produce reliable results in an environment in which the underlying trend of a series can be substantially affected by exogenous factors, OFDT incorporated law enforcement and U.S.
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From page 143... ...
One method for evaluating the validity of the projection methodology and the resulting projections is to monitor the individual components of future detention populations and identify which component is the primary source of the observed error. The reliability of the OFDT model is evaluated on a monthly basis by using simple time-series methods to re-calibrate the original projections with real-time population statistics.
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From page 144... ...
The complexity of juvenile justice decision making virtually guarantees that detention and corrections populations will not closely follow arrest trends in the Violent Crime Index. Analysts can produce more useful projections when they include juvenile court processing data in projection models, and projection models are more useful if they can account for changing patterns in court processing.
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From page 145... ...
The reason the model was relatively accurate, despite the errors in conviction trends, was that the structural change in sentencing was so dramatic that it dwarfed the impact of changes associated with conviction trends. However, as time served stabilizes, it will become more important to accurately predict future conviction trends.
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