Building the U.S. Battery Industry for Electric Drive Vehicles Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities: Summary of a Symposium (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Panel IV: Market Drivers: Creating Demand for Electric Vehicles
Panel IV: Market Drivers: Creating Demand for Electric Vehicles
Pages 117-133
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From page 117... ...
Farrell and Daniel Sperling. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 2: A Policy Analysis, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, August 2007, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-07-08.
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From page 118... ...
The main policies include zero-emission standards by several states, greenhouse-gas emission and fuel standards for vehicles "that have very aggressive incentives for electric vehicles," tax credits for consumer purchases of low-carbon vehicles, subsidies 25 Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, New York: Oxford University Press USA, 2009.
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From page 119... ...
27 In July 2011, the White House, together with most of the major car companies, announced a proposal to reduce car emissions (and fuel consumption) by 5 percent per year from 2017 to 2025, and light trucks by 3.5 percent per year.
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From page 120... ...
Sperling said he is optimistic about the future of electricdrive vehicles, he added a cautionary note. It has taken hybrids 10 years to reach a market penetration rate of 3 percent "with a technology that is cheaper than plug-in hybrids and battery electrics, and that doesn't require any change in consumer behavior nor change in infrastructure," he pointed out.
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From page 121... ...
So it set up public charging stations. This did indeed generate a response, and people started buying electric cars.
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"But there are a whole lot of them, if they stick with it and if marketing sticks with it, who will get more interested in owning an electric car." Research into consumer expectations for electric vehicle batteries also yielded surprising findings.
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From page 123... ...
"The whole portfolio of hybridization and electrification is extremely important to us." GM also must work on technologies such fuel cells and hydrogen fuel cells, he said, where companies are getting in position to introduce commercially viable products by 2015 and 2016. All of these technologies will be important, "whether you look at it from an environmental perspective or energy perspective," he said.
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From page 124... ...
"And that is a very big challenge, especially as you go through that Valley of Death." GM has done quite a bit of recent research looking not only at the first few generations of electric vehicles, but also at Generation Three vehicles expected to arrive around 2020 and 2025. "You are still looking at very costly options" versus internal combustion engines, Dr.
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From page 125... ...
We have them. It is about transforming the whole vehicle fleet and how do you do it quickly." EARLY ADOPTION OF HYBRID VEHICLES Bill Van Amburg CALSTART The truck industry may be a niche market for electric vehicles.
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From page 126... ...
Many policy makers are unaware that advanced technologies are moving into the commercial truck market, "an area not thought of as advanced technology," Mr. Van Amburg said.
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From page 127... ...
Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar, and Freightliner all have regional haul hybrid tractors and are developing nextgeneration electric and hybrid versions. 30 Don Anair and Jamie Hall, "Delivering Jobs: The Economic Cost and Benefits of Improving the Fuel Economy of Heavy-Duty Trucks," Union of Concerned Scientists and CALSTART, 2010.
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From page 128... ...
Van Amburg said, "the first all-electric vehicle in the United States by a major manufacturer is coming from the truck industry." Navistar is testing a unique dual-mode hybrid design that uses an electric drive for speeds up to 48 miles per hour and a blended mode at higher speeds, Mr. Van Amburg explained.
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From page 129... ...
Van Amburg explained. A big question is "how to get the robust manufacturing industry that has the capabilities of meeting our demand." The partnership looks at dual-use opportunities for both the military and commercial vehicle markets, he said.
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Mr. Van Amburg estimated 30 percent of the world truck market can be "very addressable" for hybrid technologies by 2020.
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From page 131... ...
Battery Industry for Electric Drive Vehicles: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities." The $20 million in the program is nearly used up, Mr. Van Amburg said.
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From page 132... ...
Van Amburg said gas prices may not fundamentally change the economic considerations of buying a hybrid car, but they make a big difference in commercial vehicles. "When you run the numbers on hybrids just at current costs without the platform costs going down, you can make the case for a threeyear turnaround at $4 and $5 easily," he said.
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From page 133... ...
"We must come up with low-carbon alternatives." Cellulose ethanol offers potential carbon savings of around 50 percent over petroleum with advanced internal combustion engines. "There aren't any 80 percent reductions out there," he said.
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